By Wali Zahid
Economy
GDP growth: Although GDP growth forecasts by IMF, World Bank and federal budget vary, Pakistan’s GDP is likely to grow by 4.7 percent this year
GDP: The annual GDP may increase from $270 billion to around $300 billion. For the first time, the GDP PPP may cross the $1-trillion mark. Pakistan is currently 40th largest economy in the world. Our ranking may improve by a point or two
Stock Market: Pakistan will enter MSCI Emerging Markets category in May, meaning larger amounts will inflow
KSE-100 benchmark index is likely to cross 55,000 points from current nearly 48,000 points
40 percent stakes in PSX will go to Chinese consortium. This is likely to bring large institutional investors from other countries
Retail: More large shopping malls will be built or become operational across major urban centres. Superstore chains will open new stores in unprecedented three-digit numbers
Debt: National debt, currently at $73 billion, will continue to grow
Debt-to-GDP ratio: Currently at 64.8 percent, it may decline slightly
Foreign exchange reserves will continue to be in the region of $23-24 billion
Tax filers: Number of active tax payers/filers may reach 1.2 million
Exports: Although IT exports are picking up, Pakistani exports will continue its declining trend, mostly because of our low global competitiveness and travel advisories
Exim Bank: Export Import (Exim) bank may be functional before June to facilitate exporters and importers after SBP licenses it
FDI: FDI (foreign direct investment) this year may cross $1-billion mark. Compared with India’s $1.2 billion every week
Remittances: After a drop in 2016, remittances may pick up to $5.7 billion
Inflation: It may remain stable between 4 percent and 5 percent as low oil prices are expected to remain stable
Agriculture: Agriculture sector will continue to remain affected because of declining cotton production
Finance: Financial sector will increase focus on financial inclusion, generating opportunities for micro-finance and commercial banks
Banking: Smart banking, mobile banking and branchless banking will increase
Ease of Doing Business: Pakistan – at 144 out of 190 countries – was among top 10 global improvers in World Bank’s 2017 Doing Business (DB) rankings. In the 2018 DB ranking, it will improve further
K-Electric: Management of K-Electric will be taken over by Chinese. It will mean improved generation, distribution and service, and may result in tariff reduction for electricity consumers
Civic services: Garbage collection in Karachi will be taken over by Chinese – initially in three districts, later extending to all regulated parts of Karachi
For some long-term bets, see this: Back to the future: Pakistan in 2050
The bright side of Pakistan economy
Harvard predicts Pakistan GDP to grow by 5% over next 10 years
Pakistan is the world’s fastest-growing Muslim economy: The Economist
Pakistan outperforms 26 frontier and emerging markets in 2016: Bloomberg
Pakistan to become full member as SCO shifts focus from security to economy
Pakistan GDP set to grow by 5.3% by 2020: IMF
World Bank projects 5.4% growth for Pakistan in 2018
$10B TAPI natural gas pipeline to be operational in 2020
Pakistan is less corrupt than last year. This is good news. What’s the bad news?
Pakistan petrol prices 18th lowest in the world
Pakistan is now world’s 40th largest economy
Worried about Pakistan’s $73B debt? You must see this
It’s the economy, stupid
Infrastructure
Motoways
Most motorways and highways – with or without link to CPEC – will start taking shape, with projects in various stages of development or upgradation.
These include: Khuzdar-Basima Highway (N-30), D. I. Khan-Quetta Highway (N-50), Gwadar Eastbay Expressway I and II, KKH II (Havelian-Thakot), KKH III (Raikot-Thakot), D. I. Khan-Quetta Highway (N-50), and Karachi-Lahore Motorway (Sukkur-Multan)
Railways
Work on upgrading and dualisation of Main Line (ML-1) railway track will start with Chinese and ADB loans worth $8.2 billion for higher-speed train travel both for cargo and passenger traffic.
To be completed by 2020, a gate-free and signal-free 1,872km railway track from Karachi to Peshawar (ML-1) will be made where speed on main line will increase from current 105km per hour to 160km per hour
Subscribe to our YouTube channel: Wali Zahid
Transport & travel
Mass transit
In addition to existing Metro BRT services in Lahore and Rawalpindi-Islamabad, new BRT service in Multan will be launched this spring
Lahore’s Orange Line Metro Train MRT project, currently delayed by a Supreme Court verdict, will start to take shape by year-end
Karachi’s Green Line with federal grant will near completion by end of 2017
Yellow Line in Karachi – a Sindh government project with Chinese loans – may get a groundbreaking in 2017
New mass transit railway services for all provincial capitals under CPEC will kick off as well as Karachi Circular Railways may see some progress
Air travel
New Islamabad International Airport will be inaugurated on 14 August. It will start domestic passenger flights much before followed by international flights from August-onwards. It will open up aviation sector to new opportunities
Expansion of Quetta, Peshawar and Faisalabad airports will be complete by this year
Expansion of Lahore airport will kick off
New aviation players – including Serene Air with Chinese investment – will enter Pakistan, both for cargo and passenger traffic, which is likely to surpass IATA and ICAO’s forecasts for 2017
Pakistan’s travel infrastructure
Mass-transit transport in urban Pakistan starting to get a facelift
Take a Metro bus from Pindi to Islamabad and pay 20¢
Lahore awaits its Orange Line Metro Train
e-ticketing on Green Line train from Islamabad to Karachi
Karachi to get Green Line bus service by end-2017
Karachi may have Yellow Line bus service in 2 years
CPEC
Most of 40 early-harvest CPEC projects in power will be near completion and generate nearly 3,000 MW’s to national grid
CPEC power projects include: Hubco Coal Power Plant, Gwadar Power Plant, Gwadar-Nawabshah LNG Terminal and Pipeline, Suki Kinari Hydropower Project, Matiari-Lahore Transmission Line, Matiari-Faisalabad Transmission Line, Port Qasim Power Plant, Engro Thar Power Plant & Surface Mine in Block II of Thar Coal Field, Thar Coal Block I & Mine Mouth Power Plant, Gwadar-Nawabshah LNG Terminal & Pipeline, Sahiwal Coal-Fired Power Plant, Rahimyar Khan Coal Power Plant and Karot Hydro-Power Plant
Optical Fiber Cable from Rawapindi to Khunjrab will be up
Two industrial parks from each province will be added to CPEC projects along with Karachi Circular Railways and Keti Bandar sea port
Gwadar
Gwadar will see provision of fresh drinking water and development of Gwadar Free Zone (GFZ)
Gwadar is set to become a Smart Port City under a CPEC master plan
Gwadar Port, later supported by a Multi-Purpose Terminal, will become operational for transit trade from China’s western provinces aimed for Middle East and Africa
Pakistan’s largest airport in waiting – Gwadar International – will get a go-ahead for fast-speed construction
Have you seen CPEC & OBOR stories on this blog?
CPEC fact sheet: 2013-2017
16 CPEC projects in Balochistan, 8 in KPK: Chinese Embassy
Chinese Embassy shares progress on CPEC projects
40 CPEC projects in 4 photos & 60 seconds
CPEC gets 4-layer security as Gwadar to be weapon-free
China’s world-reshaping One Belt, One Road (OBOR)
How China overtakes the US economy
How China is viewed by Pakistan & the world
Xi Jinping: most powerful Chinese leader since Mao
Power shortages
By this year’s Ramadan, new 3,067 MWs is expected to be added to national grid through Patrind, Sahiwal, Bhikki and Haveli Bahadur Shah power projects
By December 2017, additional new 1,840 MWs is expected to be added through Port Qasim and Balloki power projects. Total new MW’s by end-2017: 4,907
A smaller contribution to national grid will come from wind and solar energy plants. Some of the related CPEC projects include: Dawood Wind Farm, Jhimpir Wind Farm, Sachal Wind Farm, China-Sunec Wind Farm and Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park (QASP) in Bahawalpur
QASP, on completion due this year with 1,000 MWs, will become the largest solar project in the world. At its current capacity of 400 MWs, it is already the seventh largest.
With under-construction energy projects likely to get completed on time, total annual power generation will almost double by Jun 2018. Average annual power generation was ~13,000 MW in 2013 and will be around ~23,000 MW by 2018.
Political
PM Nawaz Sharif will consolidate his power and influence in 2017 and most of his policies will aim at winning the 2018 general elections. He’s slated to become an unprecedented fourth-time prime minister by forming a majority PMLN government by fall of 2018
PPP’s leaders Asif Ali Zardari, country’s former President, and his 28-year-old son Bilawal Bhutto will enter parliament through by-election to two National Assembly seats vacated by relatives and close associates. The current Sindh CM is likely to be inspired by Punjab CM Shehbaz Sharif and may leave footprint by cleaning up some of the mess Sindh province is in
PTI’s Imran Khan will marginalise himself and see himself on a path to obscurity in time for 2018 elections
2017 will see rise of Maryam Nawaz Sharif
Civil-military balance of power
PM Sharif will try to regain the space lost to army during former army chief General Raheel Sharif’s tenure after August 2014 PTI dharna and APS Peshawar school terror attack in December 2014
There will be a negotiated space for building better relations with neighbours India and Afghanistan so the regional trade is eased
India
Ties with India may start to improve with onset of spring. Intermittent shelling across LoC may continue to occur but won’t result into escalation of high-intensity conflict
Under Chinese push for regional, multi-country trade, Pakistan will open to softening up ties with India
It may not be too far when India is brought into CPEC project, an aim China wishes to see earlier than later
Afghanistan
Ties with Kabul may see an improvement after deterioration over the past few years
Trust between civilian governments of the two countries may start to repair, with military backing the multi-stakeholder peace process
TAPI natural gas pipeline may get a nod by all stakeholders – the government in Kabul, Taliban and independent warlords – fort safety of pipeline route and construction work, although delays expected
USA
US engagement with Pakistan will reduce further after strained ties over these recent years. Washington may no longer be interested in the Pak part from the American AfPak Strategy
It’s too early to say how President Donald Trump will shape his stance towards Pakistan. In pre-election Twitter diplomacy, Trump showed antagonistic attitude towards Pakistan, but during the days of President-Elect, his call with PM Sharif was quite amiable with Trump willing to play a role for all outstanding issues. Many in India read this as: Kashmir issue
China
Strategic cooperation partnership with China will see new heights
Pakistan’s CPEC is a pilot corridor in China’s 2013 six-corridor $1 trillion OBOR (one-belt-one-road) Initiative. With early-harvest phase taking shape by end of 2017, the CPEC may bring other countries including India on board
Pakistan will become full member of China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in June 2017, along with India
Russia
Pakistan’s relations with Russia will improve and see new engagement, thanks to China and SCO membership where Russia plays a key role along side China
Iran
IP Gas: After Iran agrees to negotiate amendment in GSPA (Gas Sale Purchase Agreement), Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project may move at a slow pace. Bilateral trade with Iran may pick up after Western sanctions have been lifted
Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Iran is likely by year-end
Karachi
Power struggles for Karachi’s political and financial space may continue, although with lesser force and much less overt powerplay. MQM is a likely winner for Karachi and Hyderabad’s National Assembly seats in the 2018 general elections
PSP’s Mustafa Kamal may find little relevance in future reconfiguration
Peace is likely to prevail generally, with occasional violence and target killings to achieve short-term objectives
Street crimes – mugging and mobile snatching – may continue unless political attention is paid to this part of governance
Balochistan
With development of road infrastructure and job creation in CPEC projects, nationalist sentiment in Balochistan is likely to decrease
With transit goods trade from Gwadar, Balochistan will open up doors to the rest of Pakistan
Militant religious groups – currently a major force in Balochistan – may continue to roam free, strike soft targets and result in civilian casualties
Terrorism
Since 2013, terrorism in Pakistan with resultant civilian casualties has been on a declining trend. Currently we are fifth most affected country in the world. 2017 will see much improved situation with terror attacks decreasing
Homegrown militant groups are likely to be mainstreamed under National Action Plan, but it is unlikely they will lose their writ
Society & culture
Pakistan’s sixth housing and population census will be held in March. Although there may be surprises in the population of Karachi and Balochistan, this may not affect the constituency delimitation for 2018 general elections
Pakistan’s first free public wifi will be rolled out in three Punjab cities – Multan, Rawalpindi and Lahore. Nearly 200 free wifi spots will be available at public places. The service is likely to be extended to other Punjab cities
Higher Education Commission (HEC) may set up new universities in 10 disadvantaged districts to serve local population willing to pursue higher education degrees
Day-to-day public-sector corruption is likely to persist although our current ranking in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index will improve from current 117
Laws against sexual harassment of women and honour killings may result in decrease in these crimes
As forecasted by the World Bank, extreme poverty will decline further
Unemployment may increase to 6 percent in spite of creation of 700,000 CPEC-related jobs because of large number of youth coming into employable-age net
Electronic media
Direct-to-home (DTH) subscriptions will roll out in spite of the DTH auction overturn by Lahore High Court
PEMRA campaign against illegal Indian DTH will intensify
A code of conduct for national TV channels will be implemented in various thrusts
Geo TV’s owner MSR winning nearly Rs 24 million in damages against ARY in a UK court, combined with a fine of 3 million pounds on ARY for court fees will be a message for Pakistani TV channels to air content responsibly and avoid libel, particularly in overseas broadcasts, but also in-country
Most TV channels are likely to continue with politician-bashing news and current affairs shows throughout the year
Pakistan’s new cyber law is likely to contain widespread mudslinging on politicians and opposition leaders through electronic and social media, particularly Whatsapp
Crime
Crimes in all parts of Pakistan have reduced in 2016, notably in Punjab and Karachi. The trend is likely to continue
Health
Punjab is likely to roll out a Singaporean-Turkish model of healthcare using technology
PM health insurance program with 50 hospitals onboard will kick off
Draft 0 | 29.12.2016
What are your views?
The above forecasts are short-term bets on Pakistan’s growth and smooth ride into the future. What are your views? Will your bets be different? Please make a comment below.
In December 2017, we can exchange notes on how far did we forecast correctly.
Acknowledgements
Most of the above forecasts are taken from posts published on walizahid.com. In addition, several analysts and thinkers contributed specifically to this yearly forecast. We are grateful for their contributions. Their names here in alphabetical order:
Aam Achar | Lahore | Social sector facilitator, educationist, researcher, entrepreneur, micro-blogger | @AamAchar
Absar Alam | Islamabad | Chairman, Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA), GoP
Aftab Gilani | Islamabad | Chief Coordinator, Aviation Division, GoP | @aftabgilani73
Ali Zahid | Dubai, UAE | Mobil app developer, speaker, minimalist, gamer. Founder, designplox.com | @alizahid0
Anjum Raheel | Islamabad | An accomplished IT professional with keen interest in Pakistani politics | @AnjumRaheel
Dr Ayesha Khurram | Rawalpindi | Women-rights activist & educator
Fizza Saeed | Karachi | HR & OP professional at National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited/Pakistan Stock Exchange Limited | @fizzasaeed
Javaid Nisar Syed | Lahore | PAS. Formerly Director-General Civil Service Academy, GoP and Founder, Medibank Trust
Majyd Aziz | Karachi | Former President, Karachi Chamber of Commerce & Industry | @MajydAziz
Dr Minhaj Qidwai | Karachi | Head, Health Management Program, IBA Karachi | A health management consultant from Canada with three decades+ of international experience
Mir Muhammad Ali | Karachi | Entrepreneur, investment professional, golfer, news junkie, early riser, passionate about sports and nature. Formerly CEO, UBL Fund Managers | @MirMAli
Moetesum Khurshid | Islamabad | Executive Director, Royal Airport Services Pakistan. A pilot, passionate about growing aviation industry | @Moetesum
Mona Alam | Karachi | Engineer by academics-turned-anchorperson with PTV News, presenting Economy In Focus live show | @MonaAlamm
Mosharraf Zaidi | Islamabad | Working on the Alif Ailaan campaign for education in Pakistan. WEF Young Global Leader 2014. TFF Disruptive Fellow, columnist for The News | @mosharrafzaidi
Dr Muhammad Ramzan | Lahore | CEO Fair Information, expert academic quality assurance and library consultant. Served 17+ years @ LUMS, now Director @ ITU | @mramzanch
Musa Khan Durrani | Islamabad | Investment professional engaged in a buy-side advisory role. Interested in politics, economics and energy | @MosesDurrani
Musadaq Zulqarnain | Faisalabad | CEO, Interloop, Pakistan & member, boards of its subsidiaries in USA, Netherlands and Bangladesh. Engineer by profession | @MusadaqZ
Norbert Almeida | Karachi | A safety and security advisor who tweets about security issues | @norbalm
Saleem Ranjha | Islamabad | Director, Akhuwat | @saleemranjha
Salman Masood | Islamabad | Resident Editor, The Nation and Pakistan Correspondent, The New York Times | @salmanmasood
Sami Rafi Siddiqui | Islamabad | An HR professional with 30+ years experience. Executive Director, Private Power and Infrastructure Board, GoP | @srsiddiqui11
Shahbaz Syed | Ottawa | Export Development Canada | Formerly head of Medium Term Operations at ICIEC, Islamic Development Bank, Saudi Arabia | @shsyed
Tahir Imran Mian | Islamabad | Social Media Editor, BBC Urdu | A journalist who likes to tell stories that sometime nobody considers worth telling specially from the world of social media | @TahirImran
Wali Zahid is a futurist, disruptor, blogger, social media strategist, reformer, LinkedIn writer and author of iBook, Great Training in 10 Steps.
He recently won Agahi Journalist of the Year 2016 Award. He has also been featured on BBC Urdu‘s Who to Follow on Social Media.
He runs a #Pakistan2050 hashtag on Twitter and appears on national TV on issues of significance to Pakistan.
On walizahid.com, he’s writing a series called How We Messed Up Pakistan.
As CEO of SkillCity, he coaches several Fortune-500 CEOs on leadership.
Formerly editor of The News, he’s founder of a global movement for humanizing medical education and practice.
He can be reached on Twitter @walizahid
Do not miss our Understanding Pakistan Series
Back to the future: Pakistan in 2050
Wali on Pakistan of future
Long Term Orientation in Pakistan: from Zero to 50 in 2 years
Pakistani culture through 6-D Model
Native languages in Pakistan
How future oriented are we?
How we messed up Pakistan: A series by Wali
Pakistan’s two value crimes no one talks about
Is Whatsapp your source of info? Welcome to Project Ignorance