We’re more than halfway through the 2016-17 NBA season and there haven’t been any firings yet, but several head coaches are definitely on the hot seat. After going 30-52 last season, Alvin Gentry and the New Orleans Pelicans have gone just 20-32 this year. The Chicago Bulls (26-26) have underachieved this season, but it’s the off-court behavior of their star players that could have Fred Hoiberg looking for a new job. The Nets have gone 9-42 this season and, although most coaches aren’t fired in their first season, some are already calling for the dismissal of Kenny Atkinson.
While mid-season coaching changes are usually reserved for struggling teams, that’s not always the case, as we saw last season with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Despite going 83-40 straight up (SU) and boasting the best record in the Eastern Conference, David Blatt was unceremoniously fired. Interestingly, Blatt had gone just 68-74 against the spread (ATS) during his tenure as the Cavs head coach. The team replaced him with assistant Tyronn Lue, who would go on to guide Cleveland to the NBA championship.
Although it was widely criticized at the time, in hindsight, it was clearly the right move for Cleveland to fire Blatt. However, that’s not always the case, as exemplified by the Brooklyn Nets. In less than one and a half seasons, Lionel Hollins went 50-75 SU (40%) and 63-60-2 ATS (51.2%). Since his firing, the Nets have gone just 20-76 SU (20.8%) and 38-55 ATS (40.9%).
Changing a coach mid-season is an important managerial decision and, like most decisions, there are both costs and benefits. The expected benefit of a mid-season coaching change is improved team performance; however, there are many factors which can impact the success of a replacement coach. Are players disheartened by the departure of their previous coach? Does the new coach have the requisite experience needed to be successful? Do the problems affecting performance go beyond head coaching and into the front office or player personnel?
I wanted to learn whether bettors could find value from these mid-season coaching changes, so I reached out to Scott Cooley, a spokesman for the market-setting Bookmaker.eu. “A coaching change in the NBA has very little impact on the oddsmaking,” stated Cooley. “We may shade just a hint for the first few games if it’s a green coach simply because of public perception. But honestly, the teams that are firing coaches aren’t really on the public radar most of the time anyway.”
It was interesting to learn that sportsbooks don’t do much to account for coaching changes, except when an inexperienced coach is making his NBA debut. Personally, I believe that head coaches are often used as scapegoats for larger organizational issues, and are forced to take the blame for issues outside of their control. For that reason, I speculated that teams making a coaching change would suffer from the lack of cohesion and experience.
To learn more about how teams have fared following in-season coaching changes, I examined the 42 instances over the past twelve seasons.
2015-16
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
Brooklyn Nets
Lionel Hollins
20-17
Tony Brown
17-27
Cleveland Cavaliers
David Blatt
19-21
Tyronn Lue
32-29
Houston Rockets
Kevin McHale
3-9
JB Bickerstaff
34-40
New York Knicks
Derek Fisher
29-25
Kurt Rambis
15-13
Phoenix Suns
Jeff Hornacek
18-31
Earl Watson
18-15
2014-15
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
Denver Nuggets
Brian Shaw
22-35
Melvin Hunt
14-8
Orlando Magic
Jacque Vaughn
27-25
James Borrengo
14-15
Sacramento Kings
Michael Malone
13-11
Tyrone Corbin
8-19
Sacramento Kings
Tyrone Corbin
N/A
George Karl
12-17
2013-14
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
Detroit Pistons
Maurice Cheeks
22-27
John Loyer
13-19
2012-13
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
Brooklyn Nets
Avery Johnson
12-15
P.J. Carlesimo
31-29
Los Angeles Lakers
Mike Brown
1-4
Bernie Bickerstaff
4-1
Los Angeles Lakers
Bernie Bickerstaff
N/A
Mike D'Antoni
29-46
Milwaukee Bucks
Scott Skiles
16-16
Jim Boylan
22-32
Phoenix Suns
Alvin Gentry
16-24
Lindsey Hunter
16-24
2011-12
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
New York Knicks
Mike D'Antoni
18-24
Mike Woodson
19-10
Portland Trail Blazers
Nate McMillan
20-23
Kaleb Canales
12-11
Sacramento Kings
Paul Westphal
3-5
Keith Smart
26-32
Washington Wizards
Flip Saunders
5-12
Randy Wittman
24-24
2010-11
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
Charlotte Bobcats
Larry Brown
11-15
Paul Silas
29-25
Indiana Pacers
Jim O'Brien
20-22
Frank Vogel
21-22
Utah Jazz
Jerry Sloan
24-29
Tyrone Corbin
10-17
2009-10
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
Los Angeles Clippers
Mike Dunleavy
24-24
Kim Hughes
11-22
New Jersey Nets
Lawrence Frank
5-11
Tom Barrise
0-2
New Jersey Nets
Tom Barrise
N/A
Kiki Vandeweghe
28-25
New Orleans Hornets
Byron Scott
3-6
Jeff Bower
34-38
2008-09
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
Memphis Grizzlies
Marc Iavaroni
15-25
Johnny Davis
0-2
Memphis Grizzlies
Johnny Davis
N/A
Lionel Hollins
23-15
Minnesota Timberwolves
Randy Wittman
6-13
Kevin McHale
31-30
Oklahoma City Thunder
P.J. Carlesimo
5-8
Scott Brooks
39-27
Philadelphia 76ers
Maurice Cheeks
9-15
Tony DiLeo
31-31
Phoenix Suns
Terry Porter
18-32
Alvin Gentry
18-13
Sacramento Kings
Reggie Theus
11-13
Kenny Natt
27-31
Toronto Raptors
Sam Mitchell
6-11
Jay Triano
27-36
Washington Wizards
Eddie Jordan
3-8
Ed Tapscott
28-40
2007-08
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
Chicago Bulls
Scott Skiles
8-17
Pete Myers
0-1
Chicago Bulls
Pete Myers
N/A
Jim Boylan
28-28
2006-07
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
Memphis Grizzlies
Mike Fratello
13-17
Tony Barone
26-25
Milwaukee Bucks
Terry Stotts
32-31
Larry Krystkowiak
5-12
Minnesota Timberwolves
Dwane Casey
22-18
Randy Wittman
11-29
2005-06
Team
Coach
ATS Record
Replacement
ATS Record
Miami Heat
Stan Van Gundy
8-13
Pat Riley
40-42
Seattle SuperSonics
Bob Weiss
12-17
Bob Hill
24-27
My research found that at the time they were fired, these coaches have combined to go 519-669 ATS (43.69%). Although their replacements have performed better against the spread, they have still struggled with an 851-951 ATS (47.22%) record. Considering that oddsmakers adjust their power rankings throughout the season, the fact that teams have still posted a losing ATS record after making a coaching change is quite telling.
Typically, a coach has to perform poorly to get fired mid-season, but their past struggles have already been built into the spread. By fading teams that have made a coaching change, bettors would have gone 951-851 ATS (52.78%) since 2005. That’s just above the breakeven point for spread bettors. Over the past three seasons, this strategy has been particularly profitable, going 334-279 ATS (54.49%). Bettors shouldn’t blindly take teams who have replaced their head coach, but it does appear that these teams have historically struggled to cover the spread.
I should also point out there have been several instances where a team went though more than two coaches during one season including the 2014-15 Sacramento Kings, 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers, 2009-10 New Jersey Nets, 2008-09 Memphis Grizzlies and 2007-08 Chicago Bulls. To be fair, some of those instances include interim head coaches, who were quickly replaced by the next full-time head coach.
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