The 2016 Kentucky Derby is just over 2 weeks away and the folks over at William Hill have been reporting the most popular bets so far for this prestigious race on May 7th in Louisville, Kentucky. Below we’ve shown the opening and current odds at William Hill and BetOnline, as well as the 10 most popular Kentucky Derby bets in terms of dollars wagered at William Hill.
Horse
Apr 21 (BetOnline)
Mar 3 (BetOnline)
Jan 22 (BetOnline)
Jan 22 (Will Hill)
Oct 20 (Will Hill Open)
Nyquist
+280
+500
+1000
+900
+2500
Exaggerator
+600
+2000
+2500
+2300
+5000
Mor Spirit
+850
+900
+1800
+1400
+7500
Destin
+900
+2200
N/A
+7500
+12500
Brody's Cause
+1000
+1600
+1800
+1600
+7500
Creator
+1000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Mohaymen
+1100
+225
+900
+1200
+10000
Gun Runner
+1100
+2000
+3500
+6000
+10000
Outwork
+1200
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
My Man Sam
+1200
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Suddenbreakingnews
+1400
+1600
N/A
N/A
N/A
Mo Tom
+3000
+2200
+2500
+6000
+17500
Lani
+3500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Danzing Candy
+4000
+3500
N/A
+10000
+12500
Dazzling Gem
+4000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Trojan Nation
+4500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Majesto
+4500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Laoban
+5000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Tom's Ready
+5000
+6500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Adventist
+5000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Fellowship
+5000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Shagaf
+5500
+2200
N/A
+3000
+10000
Oscar Nominated
+6000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Greenpointcrusader
N/A
+1800
+3000
+2000
+5000
Zulu
N/A
+1800
N/A
+4000
+10000
Battery
N/A
+4000
N/A
+15000
+10000
Swipe
N/A
+2000
+2000
+1000
+3500
Gift Box
N/A
+4500
+3500
+6000
+12500
Whitmore
N/A
+2500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Awesome Banner
N/A
+10000
N/A
+10000
+13000
Conquest Big E
N/A
+4500
+4500
+5000
+10000
Awesome Speed
N/A
+4500
+2500
+10000
+15000
Drefong
N/A
+4500
+4000
+5000
+7500
Discreetness
N/A
+5000
+5000
+7500
+12500
Collected
N/A
+3500
N/A
+4000
+10000
Sunny Ridge
N/A
+3500
+7500
+15000
+15000
Smokey Image
N/A
+1500
N/A
+6500
+17500
Cherry Wine
N/A
+3500
N/A
+7500
+10000
Charmed Victory
N/A
+5000
+4500
+10000
+10000
Synchrony
N/A
+5000
+5500
+8500
+14000
American Dubai
N/A
+3500
N/A
+15000
+12500
Vorticity
N/A
+5500
+6000
+12500
+15000
Flexibility
N/A
+3500
+1500
+4000
+10000
Annual Report
N/A
+6000
+6000
+5000
+15000
Matt King Coal
N/A
+6500
+7500
+7500
+10000
Sail Ahoy
N/A
+6500
+6500
+7500
+6000
Cocked and Loaded
N/A
+6500
+6000
+7500
+5000
Toews on Ice
N/A
+7500
+7500
+7500
+15000
Gettysburg
N/A
+7500
N/A
+10000
+10000
Get Jets
N/A
+7500
N/A
+10000
+15000
Unbridled Outlaw
N/A
+10000
+10000
+6000
+8000
Riker
N/A
+10000
+15000
+12500
+12500
Airoforce
N/A
+4000
+1500
+2000
+15000
As you can see, there have been a number of big odds changes but this is very common with the Kentucky Derby since odds are opened nearly more than 6 months in advance.
The most notable and significant change was for Mohaymen following the horse’s easy victory at the Fountain of Youth Stakes. The win propelled the horse to be the clear +225 favorite and is now at +400 at William Hill, but BetOnline lists Mohaymen at +1100 odds.
Nyquist is now the clear favorite at BetOnline at +280 odds but William Hill lists Nyquist at +350.
Below shows just how much money is being wagered on Mohaymen at William Hill, which provides some reasoning behind the movement. Over the last few months, Mohaymen has been getting a considerable number of wagers and now totals nearly half of all dollars to win the Derby:
William Hill odds and %’s on April 19, 2016:
William Hill odds and %’s on January 22, 2016:
It’s clear that bettors are much higher on Mohaymen at William Hill than they are at offshore sportsbook BetOnline. We always preach getting the best line possible, and the difference of +400 to +1100 is extremely significant.
Bettors also have the chance to wager on whether there will be another Triple Crown winner this year. Back on January 22, the odds of any horse winning the Triple Crown was +900 (shown below from William Hill):
Since that time, 5Dimes now lists any horse to win the Triple Crown at just +500 (with the ‘No’ available at -700). That has actually created an arbitrage or hedge opportunity where bettors can ensure a profit at +900 on Yes, and -700 on No.
Do you have any early picks for the Kentucky Derby? Will there be another horse like American Pharoah this year? Feel free to leave your thoughts and comments below.