Nearly two weeks before bowl season had concluded, oddsmakers were already looking forward to the following season. Paddy Power, a prominent sportsbook based in the United Kingdom, posted Heisman odds for the 2016 college football season. This development was somewhat perplexing given that many top candidates — including the reigning Heisman winner Derrick Henry — were expected to declare for the NFL Draft.
Roughly three weeks later, Bovada posted their own Heisman odds and there were several discrepancies. As expected, Henry declared for the NFL Draft and was removed from the list of Heisman hopefuls. Largely based on a strong performance in the national championship game, Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson jumped from +800 to +450 to become the undisputed front-runner.
On September 9th, the market-setting Bookmaker.eu posted Heisman odds with $5,000 limits — significantly higher than any other offshore sportsbook. They initially listed Deshaun Watson (+301) as the favorite, but within one week he had been replaced by Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey. The following week, a new front-runner emerged.
After tallying over 350 total yards and five touchdowns in a blowout victory over Florida State, Louisville’s Lamar Jackson saw his odds of winning the Heisman Trophy skyrocket. Jackson, who available at 110/1 before the season, became the favorite at +120. The following week Jackson racked up nearly 500 total yards and seven touchdowns against Marshall. That performance caused his odds to jump from +120 to -160.
On Saturday, October 1, Louisville suffered their first defeat of the season against Clemson, but Jackson once again posted impressive numbers with 295 passing yards, 162 rushing yards and three total touchdowns. Despite the loss, Jackson’s Heisman odds improved from -160 to -210. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, who threw for over 300 yards in the win, saw his odds improve from +950 to +400.
Louisville didn’t play the following week, which caused Jackson’s odds to drop from -210 to -170. Conversely, Watson threw for 270 yards and four touchdowns in a 56-10 victory over Boston College, which caused his odds to improve from +400 to +300. The biggest move involved Washington’s Jake Browning, who passed for over 300 yards with eight total touchdowns in a 70-21 demolition of Oregon. This caused the sophomore quarterback’s odds to soar from 50/1 to 12/1.
In recent weeks these odds have remained fairly stagnant with the exception of two major moves. Following his strong rushing performance against Tennessee, Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts saw his odds of winning the Heisman improve from 100/1 to 20/1. The other major move was the addition of Texas A&M quarterback Trevor Knight at 80/1. After transferring from Oklahoma, Knight has racked up 1500 passing yards, 502 rushing yards and 18 total touchdowns.
5Dimes is currently offering Lamar Jackson (-195) against the field (+155), but that still seems like an overreaction with nearly half the season to be played. Many sportsbooks have significant liability on Jackson due to his long preseason odds, but that has created value for contrarian bettors. In fact, this is very reminiscent of last season when LSU’s Leonard Fournette emerged a massive favorite to win the Heisman in October, and I recommended bettors take the field at plus money.
The table below compares the Heisman odds at 5Dimes, Bookmaker, Bovada and Paddy Power. It will be updated as more information becomes available.
Player
Position
School
5Dimes (10/20)
5Dimes (10/12)
5Dimes (10/6)
5Dimes (9/28)
5Dimes (9/20)
CRIS (9/14)
CRIS (9/9)
Bovada (9/7)
5Dimes (8/29)
5Dimes (6/8)
Bovada (5/27)
Bovada (1/21)
Paddy Power (12/29)
Lamar Jackson
QB
Louisville
-195
-170
-210
-160
+120
+742
N/A
+1800
+11000
+10000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Deshaun Watson
QB
Clemson
+500
+300
+400
+950
+800
+421
+301
+450
+525
+600
+350
+450
+800
Jabrill Peppers
LB
Michigan
+800
+800
+6000
+2500
+4000
+6000
+6500
+1800
+8000
+6600
N/A
N/A
N/A
JT Barrett
QB
Ohio State
+800
+1000
+700
+850
+850
+627
+685
+550
+1400
+1500
+1000
+1000
+1400
Jake Browning
QB
Washington
+1200
+1200
+5000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Jalen Hurts
QB
Alabama
+2000
+10000
+6600
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dalvin Cook
RB
Florida State
+4500
+2500
+3000
+3300
+3500
+1311
+1300
+800
+1200
+1400
+1200
+1200
+1200
Luke Falk
QB
Washington State
+5000
+5000
N/A
N/A
+6600
N/A
N/A
N/A
+5000
+4000
N/A
N/A
+2500
Greg Ward Jr.
QB
Houston
+6600
+5000
+2000
+3300
+3300
+1410
+3000
+1000
+6000
+5000
N/A
N/A
+4000
Trevor Knight
QB
Alabama
+8000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Donnel Pumphrey
RB
San Diego State
+10000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+17500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Seth Russell
QB
Baylor
+10000
+10000
+6500
+7500
+6600
+6000
+4500
N/A
+3800
+2700
N/A
N/A
+1600
Christian McCaffrey
RB
Stanford
+15000
+6600
+2500
+1000
+600
+386
+376
+400
+675
+700
+500
+500
+900
D'Onta Foreman
RB
Texas
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+15000
+10000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Mason Rudolph
QB
Oklahoma State
N/A
+25000
+12500
N/A
+10000
N/A
N/A
N/A
+6000
+5000
N/A
N/A
+2500
Myles Gaskin
RB
Washington
N/A
N/A
+12500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Juju Smith-Schuster
WR
USC
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+10000
N/A
N/A
N/A
+10000
+8000
N/A
N/A
N/A
CJ Beathard
QB
Iowa
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+16500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Nick Chubb
RB
Georgia
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+6000
+1309
+1000
+1000
+2700
+2150
+1400
+1200
+1800
Dakota Prukop
QB
Oregon
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+6600
N/A
N/A
N/A
+6000
+4000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Deondre Francois
QB
Florida State
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+4000
+1309
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Justin Thomas
QB
Georgia Tech
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+15000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Mitch Trubisky
QB
North Carolina
N/A
N/A
+6600
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
DeShone Kizer
QB
Notre Dame
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+6600
+2531
+1750
+4000
+3300
+2800
N/A
N/A
+2000
Christian Kirk
WR
Texas A&M
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+8000
N/A
N/A
N/A
+12500
+8000
N/A
N/A
+3300
Corey Clement
RB
Wisconsin
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+8000
N/A
N/A
N/A
+7000
+5000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Elijah Hood
RB
North Carolina
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+8000
N/A
N/A
N/A
+6500
+5500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Royce Freeman
RB
Oregon
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+3300
+4500
+6500
+4000
+4500
+3300
+2000
+1400
+2000
Saquon Barkley
RB
Penn State
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+10000
N/A
N/A
+6600
+6600
+7000
N/A
N/A
+4000
Calvin Ridley
WR
Alabama
N/A
N/A
+8000
N/A
+4000
N/A
N/A
+4000
+4500
+3300
+2500
+1600
N/A
Joshua Dobbs
QB
Tennessee
N/A
+10000
+4000
N/A
+6600
+7500
+10000
+5000
+3500
+4000
+2500
+1600
+2000
Chad Kelly
QB
Mississippi
N/A
+8000
+7500
+6600
+2000
+6500
+5500
+3300
+1800
+1650
+1200
+1200
+1400
Jarrett Stidham
QB
Baylor
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+3500
N/A
N/A
+1600
Chris Warren III
RB
Texas
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+13000
+10000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Adoree' Jackson
WR
USC
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+6600
+4000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Brad Kaaya
QB
Miami Florida
N/A
+12500
+5000
N/A
+6500
N/A
N/A
+4000
+5000
+4000
+3300
+3300
+2500
Damien Harris
RB
Alabama
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+15000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Josh Rosen
QB
UCLA
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+6000
+5500
+5000
+2700
+2150
+1600
+2000
+1200
Baker Mayfield
QB
Oklahoma
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+2500
+4000
+2350
+3300
+1500
+1200
+1200
+1000
+800
James Washington
WR
Oklahoma State
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+17500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Chris Godwin
WR
Penn State
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+17500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Tysom Hill
QB
BYU
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+17500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
John Franklin
QB
Auburn
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+17500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Myles Garrett
DE
Texas A&M
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+12500
+8000
N/A
N/A
N/A
OJ Howard
TE
Alabama
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+17500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Brett Rypien
QB
Boise State
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+17500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Devine Redding
RB
Indiana
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+17500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Charles Harris
DE
Missouri
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+25000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Shock Linwood
RB
Baylor
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+25000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Desmond King
CB
Iowa
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+25000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Hardy Nickerson
LB
Illinois
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+25000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Zach Cunningham
LB
Vanderbilt
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+25000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Malik Jefferson
LB
Texas
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+25000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Malik Zaire
QB
Notre Dame
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+3500
+3500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Bo Scarbrough
RB
Alabama
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+2500
N/A
N/A
+5000
+3000
+2800
N/A
N/A
N/A
Samaje Perine
RB
Oklahoma
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+3300
+12000
+9000
+7500
+2800
+2150
+2000
+1400
+1600
Leonard Fournette
RB
LSU
N/A
N/A
N/A
+5000
+1300
+1210
+853
+750
+650
+850
+400
+500
+1000
Patrick Mahomes
QB
Texas Tech
N/A
N/A
N/A
+4000
+5500
N/A
N/A
+2500
+4000
+3300
+3300
N/A
N/A
Jalen Hurd
RB
Tennessee
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+2500
N/A
N/A
N/A
+5000
+5000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Antonio Callaway
WR
Florida
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
+10000
N/A
N/A
N/A
+15000
+10000
N/A
N/A
N/A
It’s interesting to note that the Heisman Trophy is usually awarded to a quarterback or running back with the exception of two tight ends (Larry Kelley, Leon Hart), two wide receivers (Desmond Howard, Tim Brown) and one defensive back (Charles Woodson).
The table below shows the recent winners of this award along with their odds and the first week that they were available as an option.
Year
Player
School
Odds Available
Odds
2015
Derrick Henry
Alabama
Pre-Season
+2500
2014
Marcus Mariota
Oregon
Pre-Season
+700
2013
Jameis Winston
Florida State
Week 2
+600
2012
Johnny Manziel
Texas A&M
Week 8
+1200
2011
Robert Griffin III
Baylor
Pre-Season
+2800
2010
Cam Newton
Auburn
Week 3
+2000
2009
Mark Ingram
Alabama
Week 4
+3300
Below was written in the preseason
When Paddy Power first posted their odds, I explained that LSU running back Leonard Fournette was being mispriced at +1000. Unfortunately, books quickly adjusted to this oversight, and Fournette is currently +650 at 5Dimes.
I believe that Houston’s Greg Ward Jr. (+6000) is an intriguing long shot candidate, and his odds could skyrocket with a Week 1 victory over Oklahoma. In his junior season, Ward racked up 2,590 passing yards and 1,041 rushing yards with 35 touchdowns versus just 5 interceptions.
The bad news? Almost every past Heisman winner has been from
If you’re looking for somebody with shorter odds, Florida State running back Dalvin Cook (+1200) is an interesting candidate. Last season Cook ran for 1691 yards and 19 touchdowns, and the Seminoles will return essentially the same offensive line. With a freshman quarterback expected to start, Cook will be relied upon heavily and could potentially rush for over 2,000 yards.
I’m also partial to J.T. Barrett at 14/1. There has been lots of love for Michigan recently, but Ohio State is still the best team in that conference and Barrett should post great numbers as both a passer and rusher. With Ezekiel Elliott gone, Barrett will have ample opportunity to carry the offense.
Who do you think will take home the Heisman Trophy next season? Will another quarterback or running back win the award? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.