Here's a very silly idea. Can we use the number of followers each candidate has to predict who will win the election?
No, probably not - but let's give it a try anyway, eh?
Hypothesis
Support on Twitter - as measured by the number of followers - is a reasonable predictor of electoral success.
It is likely that the incumbent MP will have a large number of followers - having been in the public eye for five years and (possibly) being on Twitter that long.
It is also likely that MPs with high-profile jobs - like Chancellor, Leader of the Opposition, etc - will be followed by a range of people outside their constituency. These candidates are usually in safe seats, but not always.
These factors may skew the results.
Apparatus
Tweepy - a Twitter Library for Python.
YourNextMP - free and open crowdsourced data about every candidate standing.
Method
YourNextMP provides a CSV showing every candidate in every constituency.
72% of candidates have a Twitter ID listed against their name.
For each constituency, we take all the candidates and, if they have Twitter handles, we see which candidate has the most followers.
This data was collected on the weekend before the election. It took around 2 hours to run thanks to Twitter's rate limits. Follower numbers may have changed since and during the run.
Results
Based on this extremely unscientific measurement the results are...
Party
Seats
Labour Party
247
Conservative Party
204
Liberal Democrats
69
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
36
Scottish National Party (SNP)
24
Green Party
23
Sinn Féin
7
Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
5
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
5
Ulster Unionist Party
5
English Democrats
4
Independent
3
SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)
3
Pirate Party UK
2
The Respect Party
1
Speaker seeking re-election
1
Class War
1
British Independents
1
Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol
1
Something New
1
Digital Democracy
1
Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P.
1
Red Flag - Anti-Corruption
1
The Independent Political Alliance Party
1
Lincolnshire Independents Lincolnshire First
1
Scottish Green Party
1
Traditional Unionist Voice - TUV
1
Although that doesn't look like anything the reputable polls are showing, it does look strikingly close to what proportional representation would achieve. A strong showing from the main parties, but with the absolute need to work with the smaller parties in order to sustain a stable government.
Incidentally, Transmute performed a similar exercise back in February. It's interesting to see how the data have changed since Election Season kicked off.
Conclusion
Well, come the results on Friday, I'll update this to show just how accurately this "poll" performed.
There are some obvious deviations from the likely reality.
In Birmingham, Perry Barr - the Green candidate has been active on Twitter since 2009. The incumbent only since February 2015. An improved polling model could correct for this.
While the Pirate Party's Cris Chesha is probably a terrific chap, he is unlikely to defeat the incumbent Gerald Kaufman who doesn't Tweet.
Indeed, in Beckenham, it is only the Lib Dems' Anuja Punj Prashar with a Twitter presence.
Raw Data
You want every result? Here you go!
Constituency
Party
MP
Vote %
Aberavon
Labour Party
stephen kinnock
45%
Aberconwy
Conservative Party
Guto Bebb
53%
Aberdeen North
Liberal Democrats
Euan Davidson
37%
Aberdeen South
Labour Party
Anne Begg
78%
Airdrie and Shotts
Labour Party
Pamela Nash
87%
Aldershot
Conservative Party
Sir Gerald Howarth
83%
Aldridge-Brownhills
Conservative Party
wendy morton .
59%
Altrincham and Sale West
Liberal Democrats
Jane Brophy
72%
Alyn and Deeside
Labour Party
Mark Tami
40%
Amber Valley
Conservative Party
Nigel Mills
66%
Angus
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Mike Weir
71%
Arfon
Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
Hywel Williams
82%
Argyll and Bute
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Caroline Santos
46%
Arundel and South Downs
Conservative Party
Nick Herbert
52%
Ashfield
Labour Party
Gloria De Piero
94%
Ashford
Conservative Party
Damian
82%
Ashton-under-Lyne
Labour Party
Angela Rayner
72%
Aylesbury
Conservative Party
David Lidington
79%
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Cllr Corri Wilson
71%
Banbury
Green Party
Ian Middleton
67%
Banff and Buchan
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Eilidh Whiteford
52%
Barking
Labour Party
Margaret Hodge
97%
Barnsley Central
Labour Party
Dan Jarvis
95%
Barnsley East
Labour Party
Michael Dugher
92%
Barrow and Furness
Labour and Co-operative Party
John Woodcock
94%
Basildon and Billericay
Labour Party
Gavin Callaghan
86%
Basingstoke
Labour Party
Dr Paul Harvey
48%
Bassetlaw
Labour Party
John Mann
96%
Bath
Conservative Party
Ben Howlett
48%
Batley and Spen
Labour Party
Jo Cox
86%
Battersea
Conservative Party
Jane Ellison
59%
Beaconsfield
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Tim Scott
83%
Beckenham
Liberal Democrats
Anuja Punj Prashar
100%
Bedford
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Charlie Smith UKIP
50%
Belfast East
Sinn Féin
Niall Ó Donnghaile
36%
Belfast North
Sinn Féin
Gerry Kelly
64%
Belfast South
Sinn Féin
Máirtín Ó Muilleoir
61%
Belfast West
Sinn Féin
Paul Maskey
61%
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Liberal Democrats
Simon Hughes
52%
Berwick-upon-Tweed
English Democrats
English Democrats
36%
Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk
Liberal Democrats
Michael Moore
61%
Bethnal Green and Bow
Labour Party
Rushanara Ali
83%
Beverley and Holderness
Conservative Party
Graham Stuart
85%
Bexhill and Battle
Liberal Democrats
Rachel Sadler
59%
Bexleyheath and Crayford
Conservative Party
David Evennett
65%
Birkenhead
Labour Party
Frank Field
96%
Birmingham Edgbaston
Labour Party
Gisela
83%
Birmingham Erdington
Labour Party
Jack Dromey
91%
Birmingham Hall Green
Labour Party
Roger Godsiff
74%
Birmingham Hodge Hill
Labour Party
Liam Byrne
92%
Birmingham Ladywood
Labour Party
Shabana Mahmood
92%
Birmingham Northfield
Labour Party
Richard Burden
61%
Birmingham Perry Barr
Green Party
James Lovatt
45%
Birmingham Selly Oak
Labour Party
Steve McCabe
70%
Birmingham Yardley
Liberal Democrats
John Hemming
58%
Bishop Auckland
Labour Party
Helen Goodman
83%
Blackburn
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Dayle Taylor
38%
Blackley and Broughton
Liberal Democrats
Richard Gadsden
79%
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Conservative Party
Paul Maynard
88%
Blackpool South
Labour Party
Gordon Marsden
65%
Blaenau Gwent
Labour Party
nick smith
40%
Blaydon
Labour Party
Dave Anderson
58%
Blyth Valley
Labour Party
Blyth Valley Labour
48%
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Green Party
Simon McDougall
44%
Bolsover
Conservative Party
Peter Bedford
95%
Bolton North East
Conservative Party
James Daly
51%
Bolton South East
Labour Party
Yasmin Qureshi
100%
Bolton West
Labour Party
Julie Hilling
76%
Bootle
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Paul Nuttall
92%
Boston and Skegness
Conservative Party
Matt Warman
66%
Bosworth
Liberal Democrats
Michael Mullaney
47%
Bournemouth East
Conservative Party
Tobias Ellwood
96%
Bournemouth West
Conservative Party
Conor Burns
94%
Bracknell
Conservative Party
Dr Phillip Lee
70%
Bradford East
Liberal Democrats
David Ward
91%
Bradford South
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Jason Smith UKIP
72%
Bradford West
The Respect Party
George Galloway
97%
Braintree
Conservative Party
James Cleverly
75%
Brecon and Radnorshire
Liberal Democrats
Roger Williams
64%
Brent Central
Green Party
Shahrar Ali
41%
Brent North
Labour Party
Barry Gardiner
89%
Brentford and Isleworth
Conservative Party
Mary Macleod
81%
Brentwood and Ongar
Conservative Party
Eric Pickles
94%
Bridgend
Labour Party
Madeleine Moon
71%
Bridgwater and West Somerset
Liberal Democrats
Theo Butt Philip
68%
Brigg and Goole
Conservative Party
Andrew Percy
83%
Brighton Kemptown
Conservative Party
Simon Kirby
52%
Brighton Pavilion
Green Party
Caroline Lucas
96%
Bristol East
Labour Party
Kerry McCarthy
89%
Bristol North West
Conservative Party
Charlotte Leslie
73%
Bristol South
Green Party
Tony Dyer
34%
Bristol West
Liberal Democrats
Stephen Williams
54%
Broadland
Green Party
Andrew Boswell
64%
Bromley and Chislehurst
Liberal Democrats
Sam Webber
37%
Bromsgrove
Conservative Party
Sajid Javid
90%
Broxbourne
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
David Platt
82%
Broxtowe
Conservative Party
Anna Soubry
81%
Buckingham
Speaker seeking re-election
John Bercow MP
100%
Burnley
Liberal Democrats
Gordon Birtwistle
73%
Burton
Conservative Party
Andrew Griffiths
61%
Bury North
Conservative Party
David Nuttall
79%
Bury South
Labour Party
Ivan Lewis
86%
Bury St Edmunds
Green Party
Helen Geake
46%
Caerphilly
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Sam Gould
46%
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Paul Monaghan
89%
Calder Valley
Conservative Party
Craig Whittaker
56%
Camberwell and Peckham
Labour Party
Harriet Harman
87%
Camborne and Redruth
Liberal Democrats
Julia Goldsworthy
67%
Cambridge
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Patrick O'Flynn
48%
Cannock Chase
Labour Party
Janos Toth
50%
Canterbury
Green Party
Stuart 4 Canterbury
39%
Cardiff Central
Liberal Democrats
Jenny Willott
54%
Cardiff North
Labour Party
Mari Williams
55%
Cardiff South and Penarth
Labour and Co-operative Party
Stephen Doughty
67%
Cardiff West
Labour Party
Kevin Brennan
76%
Carlisle
Labour Party
Lee Sherriff
47%
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
Jonathan Edwards
74%
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Conservative Party
Simon Hart
47%
Carshalton and Wallington
Liberal Democrats
Tom Brake
83%
Castle Point
Conservative Party
Rebecca Harris
71%
Central Ayrshire
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Philippa Whitford
83%
Central Devon
Green Party
Andy Williamson
46%
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
Liberal Democrats
Jon Neal
34%
Ceredigion
Liberal Democrats
Mark Williams
49%
Charnwood
Labour Party
Sean Kelly-Walsh
93%
Chatham and Aylesford
Conservative Party
Tracey Crouch
74%
Cheadle
Liberal Democrats
Mark Hunter
53%
Chelmsford
Liberal Democrats
Stephen Robinson
73%
Chelsea and Fulham
Conservative Party
Greg Hands
90%
Cheltenham
Liberal Democrats
Martin Horwood
74%
Chesham and Amersham
Conservative Party
Cheryl Gillan
82%
Chesterfield
Labour Party
Toby Perkins
81%
Chichester
Conservative Party
Chi. Conservatives
30%
Chingford and Woodford Green
Class War
Lisa Mckenzie
67%
Chippenham
Liberal Democrats
Duncan Hames
59%
Chipping Barnet
Green Party
A. M. Poppy
61%
Chorley
Labour Party
Lindsay Hoyle
66%
Christchurch
Green Party
Shona Dunn
100%
Cities of London and Westminster
Conservative Party
Mark Field
54%
City of Chester
Conservative Party
Stephen Mosley
77%
City of Durham
Labour Party
R. Blackman-Woods
67%
Clacton
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Douglas Carswell
90%
Cleethorpes
Conservative Party
Martin Vickers
69%
Clwyd South
Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
Mabon ap Gwynfor
92%
Clwyd West
Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
marc jones
48%
Coatbridge Chryston and Bellshill
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Phil Boswell SNP
64%
Colchester
Labour Party
Jordan Newell
44%
Colne Valley
Conservative Party
Jason McCartney
73%
Congleton
Labour Party
Dr Darren Price
61%
Copeland
Labour Party
Jamie Reed
97%
Corby
Labour and Co-operative Party
Andy Sawford
62%
Coventry North East
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Nicky Downes
50%
Coventry North West
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Dave Nellist
91%
Coventry South
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Mark Taylor UKIP
50%
Crawley
Conservative Party
Re-Elect Henry Smith
53%
Crewe and Nantwich
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Cllr. Richard Lee
50%
Croydon Central
Conservative Party
Gavin Barwell
73%
Croydon North
Labour and Co-operative Party
Steve Reed
74%
Croydon South
Labour Party
Emily Benn
35%
Cumbernauld Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Labour Party
Gregg McClymont
87%
Cynon Valley
Labour Party
Ann Clwyd
56%
Dagenham and Rainham
Labour Party
Jon Cruddas
87%
Darlington
Labour Party
Jenny Chapman
55%
Dartford
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
joneselizab
55%
Daventry
Conservative Party
Chris Heaton-Harris
84%
Delyn
Labour Party
David Hanson
82%
Denton and Reddish
Labour Party
Andrew Gwynne
82%
Derby North
Labour Party
Chris Williamson
93%
Derby South
British Independents
David Gale
70%
Derbyshire Dales
Liberal Democrats
Benjamin Fearn
34%
Devizes
Conservative Party
Claire Perry
94%
Dewsbury
Conservative Party
Simon Reevell
43%
Don Valley
Labour Party
Caroline Flint
98%
Doncaster Central
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Chris Hodgson UKIP
86%
Doncaster North
Labour Party
Ed Miliband
100%
Dover
Conservative Party
Charlie Elphicke
67%
Dudley North
Labour Party
Ian Austin
51%
Dudley South
Labour Party
Natasha Millward
48%
Dulwich and West Norwood
Labour Party
Helen Hayes
41%
Dumfries and Galloway
Labour Party
Russell Brown
51%
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Conservative Party
David Mundell
55%
Dundee East
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Stewart Hosie
88%
Dundee West
Labour Party
Michael Marra
36%
Dunfermline and West Fife
Labour Party
Thomas Docherty
40%
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
Liz Saville Roberts
45%
Ealing Central and Acton
Conservative Party
Angie Bray
45%
Ealing North
Liberal Democrats
Kevin McNamara
100%
Ealing Southall
Labour Party
Virendra Sharma
72%
Easington
Labour Party
Grahame Morris
77%
East Antrim
Ulster Unionist Party
Roy Beggs
42%
East Devon
Conservative Party
Hugo Swire
74%
East Dunbartonshire
Liberal Democrats
Jo Swinson
69%
East Ham
Labour Party
Stephen Timms
69%
East Hampshire
Conservative Party
Damian Hinds
84%
East Kilbride Strathaven and Lesmahagow
Liberal Democrats
Paul McGarry
70%
East Londonderry
Sinn Féin
Caoimhe Archibald
55%
East Lothian
Labour Party
Fiona O'Donnell
46%
East Renfrewshire
Scottish National Party (SNP)
kirstenoswald
83%
East Surrey
Conservative Party
Sam Gyimah 2015
86%
East Worthing and Shoreham
Conservative Party
Tim Loughton
64%
East Yorkshire
Conservative Party
Sir Greg Knight
76%
Eastbourne
Conservative Party
Caroline Ansell
52%
Eastleigh
Liberal Democrats
Mike Thornton
61%
Eddisbury
Conservative Party
Antoinette Sandbach
82%
Edinburgh East
Labour Party
Sheila Gilmore
34%
Edinburgh North and Leith
Conservative Party
Iain McGill
29%
Edinburgh South
Labour Party
Ian Murray
59%
Edinburgh South West
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Joanna Cherry QC
47%
Edinburgh West
Liberal Democrats
Mike Crockart
40%
Edmonton
Labour and Co-operative Party
Kate Osamor
48%
Ellesmere Port and Neston
Labour Party
Justin Madders
38%
Elmet and Rothwell
Conservative Party
Alec Shelbrooke
64%
Eltham
Labour Party
Clive Efford
81%
Enfield North
Conservative Party
Nick de Bois
75%
Enfield Southgate
Conservative Party
David Burrowes
73%
Epping Forest
Green Party
Epping Forest Greens
34%
Epsom and Ewell
Independent
Lionel Blackman
32%
Erewash
Labour Party
Catherine Atkinson
48%
Erith and Thamesmead
Labour Party
teresa pearce
66%
Esher and Walton
Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol
Matt Heenan
80%
Exeter
Labour Party
Ben Bradshaw
88%
Falkirk
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
David Coburn MEP
93%
Fareham
Green Party
Miles Grindey
42%
Faversham and Mid Kent
English Democrats
English Democrats
66%
Feltham and Heston
Labour and Co-operative Party
Seema Malhotra
83%
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Sinn Féin
Michelle Gildernew
65%
Filton and Bradley Stoke
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Cllr Ben Walker
64%
Finchley and Golders Green
Conservative Party
Mike Freer
51%
Folkestone and Hythe
Conservative Party
Damian Collins
50%
Forest of Dean
Conservative Party
Mark Harper
78%
Foyle
SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)
Mark Durkan
71%
Fylde
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Paul White
65%
Gainsborough
Labour Party
David Prescott
88%
Garston and Halewood
Labour Party
Maria Eagle
99%
Gateshead
Labour Party
IanMearns4Gateshead
79%
Gedling
Labour Party
Vernon Coaker
81%
Gillingham and Rainham
Conservative Party
Rehman Chishti
34%
Glasgow Central
Labour Party
AnasSarwar
70%
Glasgow East
Labour Party
Margaret Curran
45%
Glasgow North
Labour Party
Ann McKechin
52%
Glasgow North East
Labour Party
William Bain
53%
Glasgow North West
Labour Party
John Robertson
56%
Glasgow South
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Stewart McDonald
45%
Glasgow South West
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Chris Stephens
41%
Glenrothes
Labour and Co-operative Party
Melanie Ward
87%
Gloucester
Conservative Party
Richard Graham
52%
Gordon
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Alex Salmond
97%
Gosport
Conservative Party
Caroline Dinenage
71%
Gower
Conservative Party
Byron Davies
76%
Grantham and Stamford
Conservative Party
Nick Boles
94%
Gravesham
Labour Party
Tanmanjeet S Dhesi
83%
Great Grimsby
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Victoria Ayling
33%
Great Yarmouth
Conservative Party
Brandon Lewis
81%
Greenwich and Woolwich
Labour Party
Matthew Pennycook
58%
Guildford
Conservative Party
Anne Milton
41%
Hackney North and Stoke Newington
Labour Party
Diane Abbott
97%
Hackney South and Shoreditch
Labour and Co-operative Party
MegHillierMP
53%
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Conservative Party
James Morris
42%
Halifax
Conservative Party
Philip Allott
45%
Haltemprice and Howden
Liberal Democrats
CarlMinns
91%
Halton
Labour Party
Derek Twigg
70%
Hammersmith
Labour Party
Andy Slaughter
65%
Hampstead and Kilburn
Labour Party
Tulip Siddiq
66%
Harborough
Labour Party
Sundip Meghani
73%
Harlow
Conservative Party
Robert Halfon
67%
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Conservative Party
Andrew Jones
52%
Harrow East
Labour Party
Uma Kumaran
56%
Harrow West
Labour and Co-operative Party
Gareth Thomas
77%
Hartlepool
Labour Party
Iain Wright
67%
Harwich and North Essex
Conservative Party
Bernard Jenkin
77%
Hastings and Rye
Conservative Party
Amber Rudd
55%
Havant
Conservative Party
Alan Mak
29%
Hayes and Harlington
Labour Party
John McDonnell
94%
Hazel Grove
Labour Party
Michael Taylor
61%
Hemel Hempstead
Labour Party
Tony Breslin
54%
Hemsworth
Labour Party
Jon Trickett
82%
Hendon
Labour Party
Andrew Dismore
50%
Henley
Conservative Party
John Howell
75%
Hereford and South Herefordshire
Conservative Party
Jesse Norman
95%
Hertford and Stortford
Conservative Party
Mark Prisk
59%
Hertsmere
Labour Party
Richard Butler
100%
Hexham
Conservative Party
Guy Opperman
50%
Heywood and Middleton
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
John Bickley
42%
High Peak
Conservative Party
Andrew Bingham
69%
Hitchin and Harpenden
Labour Party
Rachel Danae Burgin
55%
Holborn and St Pancras
Green Party
Natalie Bennett
86%
Hornchurch and Upminster
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Lawrence Webb
86%
Hornsey and Wood Green
Liberal Democrats
Lynne Featherstone
80%
Horsham
Something New
James Smith
73%
Houghton and Sunderland South
Labour Party
Bridget Phillipson
92%
Hove
Labour Party
Peter Kyle
50%
Huddersfield
Labour and Co-operative Party
Barry Sheerman
70%
Huntingdon
Conservative Party
Jonathan Djanogly
79%
Hyndburn
Conservative Party
Kevin Horkin
81%
Ilford North
Labour Party
Wes Streeting
95%
Ilford South
Labour and Co-operative Party
Mike Gapes
85%
Inverclyde
Labour Party
Iain McKenzie
74%
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey
Liberal Democrats
Danny Alexander
87%
Ipswich
Conservative Party
Ben Gummer
74%
Isle of Wight
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Iain Mckie
43%
Islington North
Labour Party
Jeremy Corbyn;
83%
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