Before I begin this so-called "breakdown" I'm going get some disclaimers out of the way. I am not a journalist, I am not a member of the "esteemed" MMA media, I am not trying to validate myself in any sort of way. So if you complain to me with a "who the hell do you think you are?" point a view, then that's a you problem. Okay? Cool. Now that we have that out of the way, we can start this shit show.
The way this is going to work is like a five game playoff series in any mainstream American sport. That is the way I look at a mixed martial arts decision: series'. Doesn't matter how much more you have done or damage you have inflicted to your opponent, as long as you have done more of it, you win the round. Win more rounds than your opponent, you get awarded the decision victory. Coach Firas Zahabi explained it best on his own Diaz vs. McGregor 2 post-fight Q&A breakdown: An MMA fight is a series of individual five minute fights. Win more fights? You win the series. Just like a seven-game baseball playoff world series. That's the way this decision breakdown is going to work. I'm going to tell you what I saw was significant, why I think the combatant won the round, and post my round score for each round. I'll tally the scores up at the end, and compare it to my scorecard before reevaluating the fight for this shit show. Thus giving you an "educated" hardcore combat sports fan's perspective, who has seen close to or over a thousand MMA and boxing matches. I know that's nothing to write home about, and it's actually kinda sad but screw you.
Anyway, I won't go into detail about anything I am not qualified to quantify. Such as proper striking technique, foot placement, angular execution,etc. Leave that to the guys who actually know what the hell they're talking about and have real world experience in it. But being a fitness professional, I am qualified enough to comment on Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor's strength & conditioning, body composition,etc. Just gonna put that out there. So without further ado, let us begin.
Pre-revaluation scorecard: 48-47 Conor McGregor
Fight 1
Doing what I thought was the smartest and most obvious strike to utilize from the get-go, Conor attacks that lead leg of Nate's. The lead leg that Nate disregards for the most part in his previous fights to defend. Right off the bat Conor is fighting smart. In a whole, that round was the best "decisionary" Conor McGregor I have seen thus far. He chose the best moments to switch from offense to defense continuously. Being a slow starter, Nate tried to rev up his engine at different moments in the round, but the moment he did Conor realized it and switched to a counter-punching shell. Once Nate backed off to regain his composure after getting countered, Conor leapt at the opportunity and lit Nate up. Especially, again, that lead leg. So, the attack on the lead leg, dropping Nate in the latter part of the second minute, and landing an assortment of strikes offensive and defensively overall; easy round to score for Conor.
10-9 Conor McGregor
Fight 2
Like the first round, Conor initiates his offense by attacking that lead leg of Nate's. As well as dropping him twice and not getting goaded into Nate's guard, much to Nate's probable annoyance. After dropping Nate the second time, it seemed like McGregor went into a "finish mode" where he started loading up on alot of shots. Now some landed but Nate, being the tough s.o.b that he is, absorbed them and kept on going. All the while continuing to try to rev his engine up. Seeing that he wasn't able to finish Nate, Conor pulled back mid-round. You can tell by his feet. Less on his toes, and a lil more flat footed. This chain of events lead to Nate's "engine" being ready to go. By the fourth minute of the round Nate started to press Conor but the latter still countered alot of shots. Sure Nate started to overwhelm Conor up against the cage in the final minute but Conor was still providing offense even in said compromised position. I'm going to give Conor the round because not only did he drop Nate twice, but he controlled eighty percent of the round via his counters. Also, provided enough offense up against the cage in the final minute, not making it the complete thrashing that it was made out to be by most Diaz's via social media.
10-9 Conor McGregor
Fight 3
Again, like the first two rounds, Conor starts off hot but it's more of a "phony" hot. Like he was trying to say "I'm good to go yo." But Nate wasn't having it. Especially when he started pointing and clowning. As soon as that game starts, you're probably going to react one of two ways: "wtf?" or "ah shit". With Conor it was probably the latter. This was also the round Conor began to manually create space by allegedly "running". That's a "tough bar guy" excuse. "Dude he's running away. Fight pussy!". Right, because dictating where the fight takes place to your advantage is cowardly? 'Kay. But I will say, in the latter part of round, Conor was taking "thick steps". I have seen those time and time again from exhausted clients. Particularly during anaerobic interval training. "Thick steps" are elevated foot-to-surface impact steps at peak exhaustion. Those steps when he was attempting to create distance were a huge tell that he was exhaaausted. I'm sure Nate noticed it, which is why he completely overwhelmed Conor up against the cage. Quite possibly the worst place you want to be vs. a Diaz brother. Especially when said Diaz bro has a size advantage on you. Clear round for Nate.
10-9 Nate Diaz
Fight 4
This was a weird round. Mainly on Nate's side. This shoulda been the round that Nate takes over. He's always been very well conditioned and just came off busting Conor up pretty badly at the end of the third round. But he didn't take the initiative. Though he did not look tired. He looked kind of confused. Cautiously confused to be exact. Now I don't know if that had anything to do with his alleged injury coming into this fight. Maybe it was part of the plan, to let Conor gas himself out in the first half of the round, then take over the latter half just like the last two rounds? Who knows. From what I saw, Nate missed a big opportunity. Conor was exhausted, little pop to his punches, and didn't move well. Though he still made very good decisions on when and what to exert his energy towards. Nate's most significant action of the round was pressing Conor up against the cage, but he didn't really do anything with it. The more superior aspect of the round was Conor peppering Nate with boxing in and around the phone booth. Not a clear round for anyone, but if you're going to give it to anyonebased on significant activity, it's Conor.
10-9 Conor McGregor
Fight 5
If Nate had fought the fourth round the way he did this round, he probably would have finished Conor. Nate completely and utterly bullied Conor start to finish. "Unstoppable force"-esque forward pressure, cage control, level-changing takedown attempts. Being in an oxidative state, Conor aerobically should have recovered enough in order to give a sustainable defense. Which he did. His offense in these last two rounds seemed to be more for show than they were in significance. Nate takes this round, but missed a big opportunity invoking the most effective work this late in the fight.
10-9 Nate Diaz
Post-reevaluation score: 48-47 Conor McGregor
Conor McGregor wins 3 fights to Nate Diaz's 2
Final Thoughts
The fight came down to decision making. Conor naturally has very good instinctive decision making. It is in my opinion his best feature. He knows and feels exactly when, where, and how to strike. The crazy part is, as far as I have seen and know, he doesn't train that. The best way to improve those Type II muscle fibers is power training(plyometric training). That means improving the integrated performance paradigm. Eccentric -> Isometric -> Concentric. Medicine ball throws, band work, box jumps,etc. You can have the fastest hands in the world but if you don't use them at the right time and place they're useless. Conor can naturally read your body and react accordingly. The only problem was his body. People have this preconceived notion that fighting at this walk around weight for him, and being well fed throughout his camp, he's going to perform at his most optimal state. Maybe for an anaerobic fight which you saw in the first two rounds, and really for most of his fights in the UFC. But for 25 minutes, most likely 20-30 lbs above his usual fight day weight, and his elevated body fat percentage? That's not going to cut it. He would need to be at this weight for another whole year to properly acclimate to the water, stored glycogen, and body fat percentage. Speaking of body fat percentage, Nate's was quite high as well. I understand this is at a weight class higher than his competitive, but using the good'ole eye test I'd say his body fat percentage was around 12-13%, 14 tops. Very unnecessary for a well conditioned athlete. He was essentially fighting with a 6-6.5 lb sweater on. Which I would assume factored into him taking so long to get into the fight. Thus not capitalizing on the most opportune times to finish the fight. Make no mistake, in the third round Conor was dog-tired. If Nate had pressed him like he did in the fifth, he could very well have submitted him. Shoulda, coulda, woulda, fight's over and it was probably the best of the year. Not just in terms of fight quality, but living up to the mantle as well.
Welp that's pretty much it. Hope you guys enjoyed this. I'll be doing another one of these shit shows for future "controversial" decision. Though probably main events only. Other than that, until then, keep on rollin'.
