Last year, in this space, I spent each week focused on a single NHL organization. Each column would review the progress being made by four to seven prospects in the system at the AHL, collegiate, USHL and European levels. Notably, CHL prospects were excluded from the articles.
This year, I am mixing things up a bit. Although CHLers are still out, these weekly forays will not be focused on a single team, but will instead move in and around the league with a weekly mixture of four to seven players from wherever I feel like providing updates.
Our first featured prospect for the 2016-17 season is a former first rounder in the Wings organization, Anthony Mantha (Detroit, 20th overall, 2013 – Grand Rapids, AHL), a left winger. Although Mantha’s second season in the AHL showed increased production in comparison to his first go-round (from 33 to 45 points in two fewer games), I ended the season rather skeptical about his NHL future. Three points in a ten game NHL cameo did not change that outlook. Specifically, I had doubts about his hockey IQ, fearing that it would hold him back from unleashing the goals that are pent up in his stick. He had prototypical power forward size, at 6-5”, 214, but played a soft game until he was frustrated by tight defensive coverage. Even in a weak Detroit system, he was only ranked 10th among his peers in the Hockey Prospectus Prospect Guidebook (http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/2016-17-hockey-prospectus-prospect-guidebook-available-now/).
At the time, I wrote about Mantha the following:
A former first round pick and two-time 50 goals scorer for Val-d’Or in the QMJHL, Mantha’s name has been tied to concerns about his work ethic at least since entering pro hockey. Despite owning an ideal frame for a power forward, he rarely shows the fight one hopes to see for pucks on the walls and in the corners and shows at-times alarming immaturity. If he is successfully tied up by an opponent, he can get frustrated and retaliate. He is slow to transition from the offensive end to his own zone after turnovers, and leaves his team effectively shorthanded when a shift should be over or he should be back-checking instead of bickering with opponents away from the play. In spite of those clear and persistent shortcomings, he is still worthy of a top-ten spot thanks to his prodigious natural gifts. He skates well enough for a man of his size (6-5”, 214), has great hand-eye coordination allowing him to deflect or tip pucks for added danger. Most important for Mantha is his shot, the beast that gave him 129 goals in 189 games at the QMJHL level. Although he has not been as potent so far as a pro (no one this side of Ovechkin is really that potent), he demonstrated an ability to score against veterans and a willingness to shoot often. Turning 22 before the start of the coming season, additional maturity, on and off the ice, will help his game play up and allow him to approach his considerable ceiling.
Although the 2016-17 season is still very young, Mantha is doing his level best to prove me wrong. Beyond the seven goals scored in his first nine games, his overall game has taken noticeable steps forward. Whereas he was previously an extremely shoot-first type of player, he is now showing a greater willingness to look for a pass. He is also playing harder away from the puck. Last year, when an offensive foray had failed, he was liable to sulk or take his time backchecking. Now, he is showing the awareness and urgency to race back, and reading the play defensively.
It would be nice to see more helpers from Mantha, but at this time, I would revise my previous projections from the former Val-d’Or sniper upwards. He still has second line potential, as well as power play specialist duties in his future. Although the Wings went with Tyler Bertuzzi for an early NHL recall ahead of Mantha, the latter winger should not have to wait too much longer for another chance to prove himself in the NHL.
Vince Dunn, D, St. Louis Blues (56th overall, 2015, AHL)
I have long been a fan of Dunn’s. In the OHL, with Niagara, he showed skating chops that few could match this side of Connor McDavid. In fact, in all of my viewings of McDavid in his draft eligible year with Erie, Dunn was the only one who could keep up. Beyond his wheels, Dunn was good with the puck, able to lead a transition, or work as a primary distributor in the offensive zone, whether at even strength or on the power play. So naturally, I was curious to see how he would adapt to the added rigors of AHL play. Especially so after he missed a large chunk of Niagara’s long postseason run due to injury.
I am happy to report that so far, so good. He has stepped right into a key role in his first few weeks with the Chicago Wolves, and has six points through his first nine AHL games. His point shot still looks strong enough to be a goal scoring weapon in the professional ranks. The Wolves have struggled somewhat out of the gate as a team, but Dunn has been one of their most consistently interesting players to watch thus far.
Patrick Kudla, D, Arizona Coyotes (158th overall, 2016, USHL)
Kudla, like Dunn above, is getting his first taste of a new level of hockey, having moved to Dubuque of the USHL after starring with Oakville of the OJHL. The Arizona State commit has adjusted well to the step up in competition, although it should be noted that he is already 20 years old. He has a decent point shot, if not quite a weapon. He can spot it so it beats coverage and fits its way to the net. He is confident on the puck and will skate it up the ice. He shows the patience necessary to make good plays instead of rushing the puck. Although lean, he is tall (6-3”, 180) and has a willingness to play physically. He is still not yet a stud prospect with a rather deep Arizona organization, but he was a nice flyer of a sixth round pick.
Trent Frederic, C, Boston Bruins (29th overall, 2016, NCAA)
Cameron Hughes, C, Boston Bruins (165th overall, 2015, NCAA)
Through eight games with the University of Wisconsin Badgers, Frederic and Hughes rank tied for first and tied for fifth, respectively, in team scoring. Many in the industry were surprised when the Bruins used a late first rounder on Frederic last June. After all, he was not a top line player with the USNTDP and did put up much in the way of numbers. The Hockey Prospectus draft preview may have been the only one to agree on the team’s assessment that he was a (late) first rounder. Watching that USNTDP squad, it was clear that one line (Keller, Bellows, Anderson) was relied upon for scoring and that the rest of the forwards were there for roles Frederic’s role was that of shutdown center, a role he performed excellently both in season and in prestigious international tournaments. Of course, it takes more than strong hockey IQ to earn a first round tag. Frederic, although he did not play an offensive role last season, showed nice touch and a few different shot types when he had the opportunity. In the early goings of his collegiate career, he is demonstrating that that touch is still there. He has more of a scoring role with the Badgers, showing great hand-eye coordination, play reading in all three zones (which is nice proof that is IQ is still high relative to his more experienced NCAA peers), and the ability to utilize his teammates in the offensive zone. The surprise of his draft positioning should be forgotten soon enough.
Hughes, who was drafted by the Bruins after a lackluster freshman season in Madison, is now in his junior campaign. He is still pretty slight, but is proving that the playmaking chops he began to show off last year were still there. Further, he is now trusted to play in all manpower situations, demonstrating a growing maturity to his game. The former Spruce Grove Saint is mainly here for scoring an early contender for goal of the year. After teammate (and Anaheim prospect) Grant Besse stole an errant breakout pass in the offensive zone, Hughes turned around and collected a pass far out in front of his body. In stretching to corral the puck, he was now no longer in a good position to shoot. So he casually pulled the puck back between his own legs, flipping it over the Boston College goaltender’s shoulder. All from within inches of the crease. That description doesn’t really give the goal justice. Watch for yourself
Jake Guentzel, LW, Pittsburgh Penguins (77th overall, 2013, AHL)
Mark Guentzel as one to watch for this year. The Penguins have drafted heavily (when they both to draft at all) from among prospects expected to attend NCAA schools. Guentzel fits that bill perfectly, having been selected in the third round in 2013 after a fantastic season with Sioux City of the USHL. After three seasons with Nebraska-Omaha, Guentzel turned pro and had an electrifying close to his season with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton of the AHL. 11 regular season games netted him six points and he turned it up a few notches for the AHL postseason, contributing 14 points in 10 games.
He has picked up right where he left off this season with 12 points in his first 10 games, placing him among the early season scoring leaders in the AHL. Having ranked him fourth among Pittsburgh prospects in the offseason, I think this is real. Although small, Guentzel has high end puck skills and offensive vision, creativity, and intelligence. More a playmaker than a shooter, his slapshot is nevertheless a real weapon from almost anywhere in the offensive zone. In college, he was able to hide in the offensive zone, finding seams and minimizing physical play. The thing to watch with him in the AHL this year is whether or not he can continue to crease space for himself. The offensive production will keep him on the radar, and to his benefit, the Penguins weakest forward position in terms of depth is at left wing. That said, he should spend at least the rest of the calendar year in the AHL to ensure that he can still produce once more opponents have decent scouting reports on him.