Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 102.498 | EURUSD 1.12602 | AUDUSD 0.76435 | NZDUSD 0.73882 | USDCAD 1.29365 | USDCHF 0.97258 | GBPUSD 1.32946 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
High | Low
EURUSD 1.12834 | 1.12581
USDJPY 102.520 | 101.989
GBPUSD 1.33363 | 1.32930
AUDUSD 0.76567 | 0.76356
USDCHF 0.97270 | 0.97111
USDCAD 1.29350 | 1.29108
NZDUSD 0.74103 | 0.73932
EURGBP 0.84725 | 0.84601
EURJPY 115.426 | 115.017
EURCHF 1.09582 | 1.09493
For Today
EUR: A quiet rise through the Asian session saw the market moving from the opening 1.1260 areas to test the 1.1280 level, topside offers are light through the areas until closer to yesterday’s highs with stronger offers likely to appear through 1.1340-60 areas with weak stops possibly beyond the level, however, the topside for the moment has held broadly through the year and offers from the 1.1400 are likely to be tough until the Fed announcement is over with. Downside bids limited through the 1.1200 areas light stops possibly on the way through to the level and then limited bids from there with congestive bids likely to be spread through to the 1.1120 areas and for the moment through that level the market looks reasonably strong.
GBP: Rising as the Euro did testing from the opening 1.3300 areas to the 1.3330 areas and running slowly out of steam through the session, Topside offers light through the 1.3350 areas with light stops possibly appearing for a run to the 1.3400 levels, a move through will likely see stronger offers appearing from short term range plays and then stops in size likely through the 1.3450 areas if broken with a strong move, and quickly testing to the 1.3500 areas. Downside bids light through the 1.3300 areas with better bids then kicking in on a move through the 1.3280 areas and into the 1.3250 levels, with the downside not particularly strong until through the 1.3100 areas the market is dominated by limited sentimental bids with the all-important trade numbers.
JPY: A slow drift through the session opening around the 102.50 levels the end of the week flows saw the market adjusting through Asia and drifting back to the 102.00 levels for the move into London, Topside offers light through to the 102.80 areas however, a move through the level is not likely to release the USDJPY too much and cross JPY may dominate the market with both German and UK trade numbers today however, if the market were to push through the 103.00 levels congestive offers are likely to continue through to the 104.00 levels and possibly strong through the 103.50 area onwards. Downside bids light through the 102.00 level as we’ve seen with a possible range of weak stops through the 101.80 areas before stronger bids start to appear on a move through the 101.50 levels and likely to continue to the 101.00 levels.
AUD: A very quiet session for the Oz with the market contained in a 20 pip range with early buying testing through to the 0.7655 areas before pushing lower as AUDJPY selling limited in fashion moved in too session before the weekend, testing the 0.7635 levels the market returned to the 0.7650 levels for the move to the London session. Downside bids congestive through to the 76 cents areas with weak stops likely on a push through the 0.7580 areas and the market for further tests to the 75 cent level and stronger bids. Topside bids light through the 77 cents area, the stronger offers then start to appear through the 0.7740 areas with stops likely if the market can push cleanly through the 0.7760 level however, the 78 cent level is likely to be reasonably resistant to a move for the time being and nothing I can see for the day is likely to upset the range for the moment.
Overnight News
KRW:
N.Korea Says It Conducted Nuclear Warhead Detonation Test
Korea’s Park Says North Korea Conducted Nuclear Test Today
JPY:
Kuroda Says He Didn’t Discuss Buying Foreign Bonds with Abe
Abe Says Must Lodge Strong Protest If N.Korea Did Nuclear Test
Suga: Japan Will Consider Further Sanctions against North Korea
CNY:
China Aug. Consumer Prices +1.3% Y/y; Est. +1.7%
Yuan Should Weaken as Other Currencies Do, PBOC Adviser Fan Says
China Starts Radiation Monitoring at Northeastern Border: Xinhua
China Urges Banks to Increase Financial Support to Indebted Cos.
EUR:
Merkel Sees EU15 Billion Tax Cut after 2017 Election, Funke Says
AUD:
Australia July Home-Loan Approvals Fell 4.2% M/M; Est. 1.5% Fall
NZD:
New Zealand Retail Card Spending Unexpectedly Declined in August
GBP:
U.K. Business Investment to Shrink as Growth Slows, ICAEW Says
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Aug A 3.30% | C 3.30% | P 3.30% | R 3.40%
CNY CPI Y/Y Aug A 1.30% | C 1.70% | P 1.80%
CNY PPI Y/Y Aug A -0.80% | C -1.00% | P -1.70%
AUD Home Loans Jul A -4.20% | C -1.30% | P 1.20% | R 1.70%
JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jul A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.80%
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Aug C 3.30% | P 3.30%
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jul C 21.2B | P 21.7B
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jul C -11.7B | P -12.4B
08:30 GBP Construction Output M/M Jul C -1.00% | P -0.90%
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Aug C 194K | P 198.4K
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Aug P -31.2K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Aug P 6.90%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories M/M Jul C 0.10% | P 0.30%
Harry Hindsight
EUR: A quiet Asian session saw the market trading around the 1.1250 for the bulk of the session moving off an opening around 1.1240, the move through into London saw the market steadily rise as expectations of no further easing or anything meaningful from the ECB, as the following commentary was released the market started to pick up pace and pushed through the 1.1280 levels testing quickly to the 1.1300 areas, the market then bounced around the level into the NYK session before testing quickly higher through the 1.1320 in choppy trading in early NYK, before dropping back quickly with further commentary along the lines of we have the will, the ability but are not allowed to by the Bundes bank and the market corrected back through 1.1300 triggering weak stops on a move back to the opening levels before rising steadily to the close.
GBP: Asia saw a small range remaining in the 1.3330-60 areas for the most part and dipping through the opening levels into early London, as the Euro started a steady rise the market in Cable lagged the Euro move and EUR/GBP saw limited gains through into the ECB decision, peaking at the 1.3370 areas the market fall back was more or less in line with Euro’s, with the EURGBP dipping from close to the 0.8500 level to lose roughly half the gains, Cable pushed through the 1.3300 levels into the early part of NYK and then traded around the 1.3300 levels through to the close.
JPY: Very quiet through the first half of the day trading lightly through to the 101.90 in early Tokyo the market soon returned to the opening 101.70 areas and moved towards the London session testing through to the 101.50 areas before again returning to the opening levels. London did very little in the JPY and the market ranged the 101.50-70 areas through into the NYK session, a dip in Jobless claims started to help the USD and when the Euro dipped lower through the NYK session the USDJPY started at last move steadily higher pushing through the 102.20 areas before slowing and continuing to the 102.50 areas and finishing the day on its highs.
AUD: Oz moved quietly through the Asian session, testing slowly through to the 0.7680 area and holding through to the London session, London were steady buyers pushing slowly to the 0.7730 levels and looking for stops however, the resurgence of the USD into the NYK session and the weakness in the JPY then saw the Oz falling steadily through to the end of the London session and pushing through to trade quietly to the close around the 0.7640 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBP RICS House Price Balance Aug A 12% | C 2% | P 5%
JPY Current Account (JPY) Jul A 1.45T | C 1.59T | P 1.65T
JPY GDP Q/Q Q2 (F) A 0.20% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 (F) A 0.70% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jul A -2.41B | C -2.65B | P -3.20B | R -3.25B
CNY Trade Balance Aug A 52.1B | C 58.3B | P 52.3B
CNY Trade Balance CNY Aug A 346B | C 372B | P 343B
EUR ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jul A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
CAD Building Permits M/M Jul A 0.80% | C 2.10% | P -5.50% | R -5.30%
CAD Capacity Utilization Rate Q2 A 80% | C 81.50% | P 81.40%
USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 3) A 259K | C 265K | P 263K
USD Natural Gas Storage A 36B | C 44B | P 51B
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -14.5M | C 0.6M | P 2.3M
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.
The post Daily FX Market Commentary appeared first on LMAX Exchange Opinions.