Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 102.043 | EURUSD 1.11754 | AUDUSD 0.76014 | NZDUSD 0.72108 | USDCAD 1.30396 | USDCHF 0.9695 | GBPUSD 1.32244 |
LMAX Ranges 6am London time
Highs Lows
EURUSD 1.11870 | 1.11636
USDJPY 102.684 | 101.952
GBPUSD 1.32691 | 1.31998
USDCHF 0.97071 | 0.96800
AUDUSD 0.76157 | 0.75784
USDCAD 1.30633 | 1.30261
NZDUSD 0.72295 | 0.71890
EURCHF 1.08472 | 1.08257
EURGBP 0.84600 | 0.84173
EURJPY 114.726 | 113.883
For today
EUR: Early trading saw the market rising a little to test above the 1.1180 levels with Fed officials stating that a weak GDP doesn’t rule out a rate rise in 2016 this had little impact from the opening and the market only started to give a little ground later into the session dipping back to the opening 1.1170 levels to hold in a tight range through the Asian session, Topside offers still remain into the 1.1200 areas with those offers likely to continue through to the 1.1220 areas with limited offers from there to the 1.1240 levels and congestion thereafter into the 1.1280-1.1300 areas possibly slightly stronger and very dependent on PMI numbers. Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 areas with plenty of congestion likely on the way there but limited until better bids start to appear around the 1.1050 areas.
GBP: Early weakness from the opening saw the market limited to the upside around the 1.3240 levels before dropping quickly back to the 1.3200 levels, the move through the session was a steady rise from that point with the market to the topside cleared for the most part to the 1.3300 levels before holding around the 1.3270 and drifting to the London session around the 1.3250 area. Topside offers around the 1.3300 areas is likely to see lighter offers on the run to that level, with the market seeing a number of attempts over the previous month with congestion likely through to the 1.3350 levels and possibly further stronger offers appearing, a push through the level is likely to open the highs from mid-July with light offers on the run to 1.3400, downside bids light through the 1.3200 levels is possibly congestive and not particularly strong with the market finding stronger bids on a move back to the 1.3100-50 areas.
JPY: USDJPY opened a little higher from the opening and although the market did test the 102.00 areas shortly after the opening it did start a slow and steady rise through the 102.50 areas before holding around the level through the London session, Topside offers into the 103.00 likely to be light and possible stops on a move through the level and into the 103.50 areas seeing very little to stop the market regaining the 104.00 areas, downside bids remain through the 102.00 levels however, chances of weak stops on any move through the 101.80 areas with the market already talking about easing appearing in September however, the market has been taken higher for the third time by the rumour mill and that is a rumour for another day, a break through the 101.80 levels is likely to see very little in the way until the 101.20-00 areas with better bids from then on.
AUD: A very narrow range over the course of the session with the market drifting in early trading as the limited Sydney market and then USDJPY some early moves higher the market pushed once the CNY numbers were released with slightly better PMI numbers overall helping the Oz above the 76 cents before ranging above the 0.7610 areas into the London session, Topside offers likely to continue through to the 0.7650 areas before any weakness to the top appears with the market then becoming congested around the 77 cent levels and the market then struggling against increasing offers through that level, downside bids light through to the 75 cent level with a little more stronger areas into the level, a dip through the 0.7480 areas is likely to see some weak stops however, one suspects that bids are likely to range through the level and deep into the 74 cent level.
Overnight News
CNY:
China July Manufacturing PMI 49.9; Est. 50.0
Caixin China July Manufacturing PMI 50.6; Est. 48.8
USD:
U.S. Consumption Should Be Quite Solid, NY Fed’s Dudley Says
Fed’s Dudley Says ‘Premature’ to Rule Out Tightening in 2016
JPY:
Abe Aide Hamada Favors Japan Proclaiming Debt-Monetizing Policy
Tokyo Elects First Female Governor to Fix 2020 Olympics Disarray
Nikkei Japan July Manufacturing PMI 49.3 vs 48.1 in June
EUR:
S.Korea, Iran Co’s. May Be Allowed to Use Euro for Payment: Maeil
NZD:
N.Z. Treasury Says 2Q Economic Growth Stronger Than Expected
NZ Treasury Now Forecasts Jobless Rate Under 5% by Late 2017
Fonterra Maintains Milk Price Forecast Despite Kiwi Strength
Moody’s Says New Zealand Banking System Stable, Despite Dairy
AUD:
Australia July Melbourne Inst. Inflation Gauge Falls 0.3% M/m
Australia’s June Private New Home Sales Rise 8.2% M/m
Australia July Manufacturing Index Rises 4.6 Pts M/m to 56.4
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
1:00 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Jul A -0.30% | P 0.60%
1:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Jul A 49.9 | C 50 | P 50
1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Jul A 53.9 | P 53.7
1:45 CNY Caixin China PMI Manufacturing Jul A 50.6 | C 48.9 | P 48.6
7:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Jul C 52.5 | P 53.5
7:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Jul (F) C 48.6 | P 48.6
7:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Jul (F) C 53.7 | P 53.7
8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul (F) C 51.9 | P 51.9
8:30 GBP UK PMI Manufacturing Jul (F) C 49.1 | P 49.1
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jun C 0.80% | P -0.80%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Jul C 52.4 | P 53.2
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Jul C 61 | P 60.5
Weekend News
JPY:
BOJ to Drop 2-Yr Reference on Inflation Target: Nikkei
Japan’s METI Considering Public Fund for Fukushima: Nikkei
Japan to Invest $10b in Iran Economy, Oil After Assessment: IRNA
Japan LDP Secretary General Tanigaki Offers Resignation: Yomiuri
EUR:
Italy’s Monte Paschi Flunks Stress Test, Plans to Raise Capital
CNY:
China to Step up Monitoring of Capital Flows, SAFE Says
Chinese Investors Buy Caesars’ Games Unit for $4.4 Billion
GBP/CNY: U.K., China Regulators Discuss Financial Framework: Reuters
SGD/USD:
Singapore Prime Minister Lee to Visit U.S. From July 31-Aug. 5
SGD:
Goldman Bond Deals With 1MDB Under Singapore Central Bank Review
HKD:
Hong Kong Bans Pro-Independence Candidate From Upcoming Election
AUD:
Australian Opposition Wins Queensland Seat After Vote Recount
GBP:
Cameron Proposes 48 Honours Including Hammond, Sunday Times Says
London Is on the Side of Business, Mayor Tells S. Telegraph
London Mayor Says Labour Appears ‘Anti-Business’: Telegraph
Harry Hindsight
EUR: Euro’s moved steadily around the 1.1080 levels through from the close in NYK and into the Asian session moving into the Lunch hour the market lifted a little to push through towards the 1.1100 areas however, the move into London saw the market slipping a little lower again before challenging the topside for a second time, mixed numbers through the early part of London saw little movement but a market reluctant to step away from the 1.1100 areas and eventually pushing through with light stops triggered to the 1.1110 areas before holding for a few hours into the NYK session, with a US GDP number less than expected but better than the previous number the market saw a weaker USD and the Euro quickly moved through the 1.1120 levels triggering weak stops and a quick rally through to the 1.1160 levels the market then struggle higher eventually pushing through the 1.1180 levels before running into strong offers into the 1.1200 level and failing to touch the level before slipping back again to the 1.1160 areas and then a steady rise to the 1.1180 levels and the close.
GBP: Cable opened around the 1.3160 levels and tested just a little lower into the 1.3150 areas before starting a slow steady rise through to the 1.3200 areas before ranging through into the London session unable to push through the 1.3220 levels and holding the previous low of the day, the move into the NYK session saw the Cable rally sharply to the 1.3240 levels before dipping and running higher for the second time pushing through the1.3260 areas to peak at the 1.3300 levels with the help of a few weak stops, the market then slipped a little lower through to the end of the session giving most of the gains back to finish up only just above the 1.3200 levels for the day.
JPY: The market opened more or less on its highs around the 105.50 levels having seen early comments with BoJ considering specific easing stops however, the BoJ monetary policy was about to change that with early sellers of the rumour sending the market quickly to the 103.50 level before bouncing back the market was choppy until the full details became apparent rising quickly to make the high above the 105.50 level and quickly dropping back to the 103.00 level, the move through the London session saw the market ranging widely between the 103.00-104.00 levels however, the release of Lending rates in the US saw the levels increasing and the market took fright and the USDJPY started a steady break lower pushing through the 102.00 levels slightly before holding to the close around the level.
AUD: Having pushed a little higher as the USD dipped lower against the USD in early trading the Oz managed to push towards the 0.7550 levels through the Asian session before giving up the gains and pushing down through the 75 cent level into the early London session, the lows lasted for an hour or so before the market started a steady rise through into the NYK session just above the opening levels and holding around the 0.7520 areas before the release of the US data saw the Oz quickly squeeze higher pushing through the 0.7550 levels and triggering weak stops on the move through the level and pushing quickly to the 0.7570-80 levels the resistance slowly diminished and the market was able to push on to the 76 cent levels and hold around that level to the close.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPY BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
NZD Building Permits M/M Jun A 16.30% | C -0.90% | P 0.10%
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Jul A -12 | C -7 | P -9
JPY Jobless Rate Jun A 3.10% | C 3.20% | P 3.20%
JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jun A -2.20% | C -0.40% | P -1.10%
JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Jun A -0.50% | C -0.40% | P -0.40%
JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jul A -0.40% | C -0.40% | P -0.50%
JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun (P) A 1.90% | C 0.60% | P -2.60%
JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Jun A -1.40% | C -1.20% | P -1.90% | R -2.10%
NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Jul A 16 | P 20.2
AUD PPI Q/Q Q2 A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.20%
JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jun A -2.50% | C -2.80% | P 9.80%
EUR French GDP Q/Q Q2 (A) A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.60%
CHF KOF Leading Indicator Jul A 102.7 | C 101.6 | P 102.4
GBP Mortgage Approvals Jun A 65K | C 66K | P 67.0K
GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jun A 1.10% | C 0.40% | P 1.20%
EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jun A 10.10% | C 10.10% | P 10.10%
EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jul A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
EUR Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jul (A) A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%
EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 (A) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.60%
USD Employment Cost Index Q2 A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
CAD GDP M/M May A -0.60% | C -0.50% | P 0.10%
CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jun A 0.60% | C 1.50% | P 1.10% | R 1.20%
CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jun A 1.80% | C 3.20% | P 6.70% | R 7.00%
USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 (A) A 1.20% | C 2.60% | P 1.10%
USD GDP Price Index Q2 (A) A 2.20% | C 1.90% | P 0.40%
USD Chicago PMI Jul A 55.8 | C 54.3 | P 56.8
USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jul (F) A 90 | C 90.2 | P 89.5
Stay lucky
Andy
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