Good morning,
LMAX Close Wellington open
USDJPY 111.552 111.45-60 | EURUSD 1.12708 1.1260-88 | AUDUSD 0.76029 0.7600-28 | NZDUSD 0.67961 0.6780-0.6810 | USDCAD 1.30052 1.2985-1.3015 | USDCHF 0.9692 0.9670-0.9700 | GBPUSD 1.44794 1.4430-60 |
LMAX Ranges 6am London time
Highs Lows
EURUSD 1.12852 | 1.12612
USDJPY 111.617 | 111.221
GBPUSD 1.44689 | 1.44215
USDCHF 0.97119 | 0.96905
AUDUSD 0.76037 | 0.75691
USDCAD 1.30702 | 1.30199
NZDUSD 0.67911 | 0.67518
EURCHF 1.09375 | 1.09285
EURGBP 0.78125 | 0.77896
EURJPY 125.734 | 125.451
For today
EUR: A steady day for the Euro lifting from a lower opening and trading steadily through the 1.1280’s before again slipping back to the opening levels into the grey hours, with little interest in straight Euro, Topside offers through the current highs and into the 1.1300 likely to be light however, as the market moves through the level the offers are likely to increase into the 1.1340 areas with only light weak stops in between, moving through to the 1.1360 levels is likely to be tough with those offers likely to be replaced on any move towards the 1.1380-1.1400 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.1220 levels with only token support likely through the area if there is a concerted push lower, bids likely to continue though through into the 1.1160 areas and with the topside seems to require something different in the day to drive the Euro.
GBP: Over the weekend Cameron saw his top table reduced by 1 as Ian Duncan Smith resigned over budgetary cuts to some parts of the welfare system, and of course IDS as he’s known is a firm Brexit supporter so score one for the out campaign, GBP was under pressure from a low opening with the market around the 1.4460 areas and while it did try to rally into the Tokyo Holiday session it failed miserably and started to drift from its highs pushing steadily lower through the session to move into the 1.4430’s towards the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.4500-20 levels are likely to repopulate now as the market again looks to be on the back foot, a push through the 1.4400 levels again opens up the downside with the 1.4250 areas really the only strong place technically with those bids likely to extend into 1.4200, in between there are only the usual sentimental levels with the possibility of light profit taking to interfere with any moves. EURGBP made steady gains push back through the 0.7800 levels and pushing to 0.7810 even though the general market is quiet due to Japan’s vernal equinox day. If the daily’s over the weekend and this morning have their finger on the pulse the Brexit and ruminations to cramp high end properties buying todays rightmove house pricing may be the first of many low numbers.
JPY: Opening unchanged from Friday early trading was quiet until into the lightly staffed Tokyo session, dropping back through the 111.50 levels to quickly trade into the 111.30 levels and eventually extend to the 111.20 area, the steady movement over with the rise back towards those 111.60 opening areas was no less exhilarating and the market ground through the session unchanged moving into the grey hours. Topside offers into the 111.80 areas with a push through the 112.00 levels likely to see weak stops appearing quickly for a move towards the 112.40.60 areas before more solid offers appear however, any movement through the level is like to see the 113.00 levels tested. Downside bids likely to be stubborn around the 111.20-00 areas with a move through the level possibly seeing an increase in support the closer the market moves towards the 111.40-60 levels.
AUD: Oz continues to wander lower over the course of the session with announcements that the Budget will be held a week early on May 3rd and opening the distinct possibility of the Government heading for the double dissolution option, this removed some support from the market and the only saving grace was a lack of Japanese retail market player possibly taking advantage, the market did drift though from the opening levels just below 76 cent slipping into the early Tokyo hours below the 0.7570 areas before regaining the bulk of the losses and drifting through into the grey hours once it was unable to push to 76 cent again. Topside offers likely to again reappear through the 76 cent level and into the 0.7640-60 areas with any move higher likely to be congested with strong offers into 77cent. Downside looks far more uncertain, with no likely strong areas until the market retraces most of last two weeks of gains on the move from the 73 cent levels, however, 74 cent is likely to hold shallow bids around the level and possibly blunting any downward momentum.
Overnight News
CNY:
China Needs to Step Up Money, Fiscal Policy Coordination: News
China NDRC Chairman Promises Foreign Access to Markets, AP Says
Bernanke Suggests Less Predictable Yuan Path for PBOC: Caixin
JPY:
Japan Cabinet Approval Rating -1.8 Ppts to 46.3% in Sankei Poll
AUD:
Turnbull Brings Forward Budget to May 3 as Early Election Looms
GBP:
U.K. March House Prices Rise 1.3% M/m, Rightmove Says
NZD:
N.Z. Consumer Confidence Declined in First Quarter, Westpac Says
New Zealand Recorded 6,070 Permanent Immigration in February
New Zealand Property Mkt Steady Despite Rate Cut, S&P Says
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZD Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence Q1 A 109.6 | P 110.7
GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Mar A -1.60% | P 2.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jan C 26.3B | P 25.5B
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Mar C -13 | P -17
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Feb C 5.32M | P 5.47M
Weekend News
CNY:
Financial Leverage in China Is Too High: PBOC Governor Zhou
China’s Bottom Line to Avoid Systemic Risks, Vice Premier Says
China Economy Faces Downward Pressure, Vice Premier Says
China Should Resolve Local Govt. Debt Risk, Vice Premier Says
PBOC’s Yi: China Tobin Tax ‘Still An Academic Subject’ For Now
China ‘Didn’t Care That Much’ About Moody’s Outlook Cut: Lou
Local Govt. Can Keep Property Market Stable: PBOC’s Pan
PBOC Economist Says China Exports Face Increased Pressure: CBN
China Must Address ‘Very High’ Corporate Debt: OECD’s Gurria
JPY: Abe Adviser Honda Sees Decision on Sales Tax After G-7 Summit
Hon Hai, Banks Agree on 300B Yen Credit Line for Sharp: Yomiuri
Hon Hai Seeks to Cut Price It Pays for Sharp’s Shares: Yomiuri
EUR:
Bundesbank’s Weidmann Criticizes ECB’s Decision on Rates: Funke
Greece’s New Democracy Widens Lead in Alco Poll: Proto Thema
Hollande Says Abdeslam Directly Linked to Paris Attacks
TRY:
Istanbul Bomb Kills at Least Five, Hurts Dozens of Tourists
GBP:
U.K.’s Cameron Names Europe Backer to Replace `Brexit’ Supporter
Harry Hindsight
EUR: Asia saw the highs with the market trading quietly through the early part into the Tokyo session dipping into the session to push towards that 1.1300 areas, before rallying steadily after the initial Tokyo selling to test towards the 1.1340 levels, the balance of the session in Tokyo saw a steady drift lower pushing into the grey hours around the opening 1.1310, grey hours selling quickly moved in with early Europeans moving in only for early London join the selling pushing through to the 1.1275 areas and into the official opening, London saw a quick flurry with the market testing above the 1.1300 levels before the selling moved in again, and the lows posted for the day to the 1.1255 areas and the market drifted through the session again making the 1.1300 areas but finally drifting back to the 1.1280 close with only the German PPI numbers really having much of an effect.
GBP: The pull of the Euro and a lack of news saw the Cable pulled lower, as with the Euro the Cable made early highs into the Tokyo session having drifted a little lower from the opening around the 1.4480 moving off that low to move to the mid 1.4490’s before seeing the market drift from the highs with the Euro, the cross EURGBP saw quiet gains through the Asian session testing to the 0.7830 levels however, the move lower into the grey hours saw the Euro causing the most damage and while the Cable followed the move trading into the London opening around the 1.4450 levels the cross dropped quickly to the 0.7795 levels on the PPI numbers in German, and while the move into London saw Cable make its lows around the 1.4410 levels its move higher was gradual and stronger than that of the Euro with the market moving to the 1.4500 levels pushing eventually to the 1.4510 areas before finishing the day around the 1.4480 opening levels, the EURGBP recovered from the 0.7775 levels once the London market disappeared for the day and the steady climb failed to make the 78 cent levels.
JPY: Opening around the 111.40 areas the market drifted with the rest of the market into the Tokyo session before seeing strong cross selling moving into the market to take USDJPY down to the 110.80 levels however, the market recovered from the level with it unable to break the level and returned to the previous levels, the move through to the grey hours exceeding the opening levels and pushing above the 111.50 levels before the release of the German PPI numbers and strong EURJPY selling impacting both currencies to drag the USDJPY back towards the 111.00 levels however, from here it was a slow grind through the day with the USDJPY slowly rising of the course of the day to test into last hours above the 111.70, light profit taking from short term guys saw the market then drift to settle into the 111.50’s.
AUD: A quiet move out of NYK saw a quick stab higher in the WTI (oil) and the Oz followed moving into the Tokyo session, testing to the 0.7680 levels however, it was the high of the day and the market spent the day trading steadily lower, limited into the grey hours to the opening 0.7650 levels the market into the early London part of the grey hours saw day traders selling Oz quickly lower before moving into the official opening and a very quiet session through to the NYK session with the market holding the 0.7620 level, NYK sold smalls for the opening however, this was sufficient to push steadily through the 0.7620 levels and opening a push to the 76 cent areas to the close.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPY BoJ Minutes
EUR German PPI M/M Feb A -0.50% | C -0.20% | P -0.70%
EUR German PPI Y/Y Feb A -3.00% | C -2.60% | P -2.40%
CAD Retail Sales M/M Jan A 2.10% | C 0.80% | P -2.20% | R -2.10%
CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jan A 1.20% | C 0.70% | P -1.60% | R -1.70%
CAD CPI M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
CAD CPI Y/Y Feb A 1.40% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%
CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Feb A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.30%
CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 1.90% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%
USD U. of Michigan Confidence Mar (P) A 90 | C 92 | P 91.7
Stay lucky
Andy
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