MIGUEL MÁIQUEZ / EFE
polls predict a final in which the ultra-right Marine Le Pen and the independent Emmanuel Macron will face.
the traditional parties seem to SAG: Fillon (conservative) can pay expensive their scandals, and Hamon (Socialist) is very behind in the polls.
Emmanuel Macron: ‘transversal’ revelation.
marine Le Pen: the spearhead of the European far right.
François Fillon: a veteran hit by the scandal.
Benoît Hamon: would the resurgence of the left?
Envalentonada surveys, and riding on the back of the brexit of the victory of Donald Trump, with the rise of other movements ultra-nationalists and demagogic in Europe, and the spectacular results of his own party in the last elections European and regional, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front (FN) and main reference of right-wing gala , hoping to achieve in a couple of months what only a few years ago would have been unthinkable for a politician of his ideology: become the first President of the French Republic.
the surveys are not yet conclusive enough as for which you can claim victory, but the truth is that Le Pen is closer than ever to the Elysée. In the next presidential election, the far-right leader will face two dotted with candidates, though in varying degrees, for scandals (the conservative François Fillon, accused of having used his position to economically help your spouse, the independent Emmanuel Macron, accused of and fool his in an extra-marital relationship), and a third which polls are still very little chance , the new socialist candidate, Benoît Hamon. The elections April 23, with a runoff scheduled for the May 7 between the two most voted candidates, where none has obtained the sufficient majority.
at the moment, it seems that their main obstacle will be Emmanuel Macron, who the last probe of voting intention, by Opinionway and published a few days ago by Elabe and Les Echos, awarded the victory in the presidential elections, although he achieved it in a hypothetical second turn, which would face Marine Le Pen. In this second round, the independent candidate, who so far has not never been elected in the polls for any public office, would be imposed with 65% of the votes. In the first round However, the leader of the national front would be the most voted with between 26% and 27% of the votes, while Macron would remain in second place, with between 22% and 23% of the votes.
for its part, the conservative candidate, François Fillon to who until now most of the polls had been set up, along with Le Pen, in this second round, would pay the price of scandal for alleged hiring irregular of his wife as a consultant of the National Assembly, and would be discarded, with around 20% of the votes i.e., in third position. However, in the event that Fillon achieved to pass to the second round, and faced it to Le Pen, poll predicts that here too the conservative candidate could beat the leader of the FN, but with one margin less than Macron: a 59% of the votes. The question seems to be, who of the two is responsible for attempting to stop the far right.
at the tail of the survey, meanwhile, appear the candidate of the Socialist Party, Benoît Hamon who figure with just a 14% in the estimates of the first round vote, and the candidate of the left front, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who occupies the fifth position, with a 11%. the rest of the applicants did not even reach 5%.
apart from the decline in support for more traditional Parties (Conservatives and Socialists), uncertainty, therefore, is still very high, in elections that may be crucial to Europe’s future. after the coup that resulted in the decision of the United Kingdom to leave the EU, the arrival in the French Government of a party as the national front, which, in addition to populist and ultra-nationalist, is, of course, Euro-sceptic (when not directly Europhobe), can create a precedent of unforeseeable consequences. Coming from a country of both weight as France, the possible domino effect could shake the very foundations of the Union, and call into question the European response to challenges such as the earthquake’ Trump’, the crisis of refugees the rise of Islamophobia the relationship with Russia, the transformation of the welfare State , the negotiation of future trade treaties or intercontinental.
in the April elections, the eleventh presidential election of the Fifth Republic, the citizens will choose who will be the head of State during the next five years. it’s the first time in the history of the current regime (in force since 1958) in that the outgoing President (in this case, the Socialist François Hollande) does not arise in his re-election bid. after the presidential elections will be held, from 11 to 18 June, elections parliamentary. “
these are the four main candidates who will vie for the post:
Emmanuel Macron (independent)
‘transverse’ revelation
aspiring to become the great revelation of the next French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron has little experience in politics, concurs as independent” aside from the traditional parties, and defends a program described as “centrist” and “cross” . If, as they seem to portend the most recent polls, it was finally elected President, would be one of the candidates more young people to get to the post, with only 39 years old.
son of a couple of doctors, Macron is diploma of the Institute of political studies in Paris and at the National School of administration, and graduate in philosophy and political science. currently serves as a senior official of the State (inspector of Finance).
affiliate from age 24 to the French Socialist Party, his family origins are in the gentry gala. The National School of administration, where he was educated, is where traditionally formed elites French, and their personal and family contacts include, in addition to prominent politicians, the President of Nestlé or members banking Rothchild, institution for which began to work in 2008, and remained her four years managing to reach the category of partner. During the charge, Macron directed the purchase of a subsidiary of Pfizer by Nestle, for a price of 9,000 million dollars and substantial dividends.
in 2011, Macron opted for the candidacy of the Socialist François Hollande to the Presidency of the Republic, and participated actively in the preparation of his speeches and program. After winning the election, Hollande incorporated it to his Cabinet and tasked the economic area. In may 2012, he was appointed Deputy Secretary-General of the Elysée, since he played until 2014.
in the same year was appointed Minister of Economics of the second Government of Manuel Valls, who did not hesitate to confront dialectically dissent repeatedly with the Government line. Representative of the more liberal wing of the party, in only two years Macron became a reference to liberalism, “next to employers than unions”, according to his detractors.
in August of 2016 presented his resignation. By then, the politician had already created his own political movement in Marche! (E. M., the initials of your first and last name). Passing through the Ministry of economy left the law that bears his name, a text containing timid liberalization and whose main provisions provide the extension of 5 to 12 Sundays a year in which retailers can open in the tourist areas and the deregulation of professions as the notary as his greatest legacy. In November 2016 announced his candidacy for the Presidency.
Emmanuel Macron is considered a neo-liberal trying to combine its ideological position with values on the left. is also known for his defense of Muslims and his clear speech against Islamophobia.
married since 2007 with Brigitte Trogneus your antiqueUA professor of language, 24 years older than him, Macron plays the piano and reads philosophy. Gala press highlights of his great intelligence and has come to qualify you as a kind of “Steve Jobs French”.
the last day 7, Macron decided to leave the passage of rumors that pointed to the candidate would remain an extramarital homosexual relationship with journalist Mathieu Gallet President of Radio France: “I am as I am, never have had nothing to hide”, said the former Minister of economy. “If say it I have a double life with Mathieu Gallet, is my hologram, but I can not be me”, added.
Marine Le Pen (national front)
the spearhead of the European far right
Autoproclamada “Savior of France” face the European Union, foreigners, “economic globalization” and “Islamic fundamentalism”, Marine Le Pen (48 años) started the day 5 past his electoral campaign ensuring before 3,000 people that “the impossible is possible” ” , and putting as examples brexit and the recent triumph of Donald Trump in the presidential elections of the United States. Not in vain, Le Pen was the first European policy to publicly congratulate Trump after his victory, which the President of the National Front (FN) is referred to as “the beginning of a new world”.
far-right leader also insisted on his promise to call a referendum in the six first months of his term to to leave the EU. “This is our country!”, proclaimed, adding that “the division is not between left and right, but between Patriots and globalists”, and ensuring that immigrants undocumented may not stay in France nor have free health care . Le Pen, who stays in polls as a favorite to win in the first round, presented a program with 144 commitments that has divided on several major themes, under the sections of a “free” France, “thriving”, “safe”, “fair”, “proud”, “powerful” and “sustainable”.
born in Neuilly-Sur-Seine (Ile de France), and the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the leader of the national front, Marion Anne Perrine Le Pen holds a degree in law and a lawyer by profession. In 1998 he started in local politics, where he has developed much of his public career. member of the European Parliament, was elected in 2004 and in 2009 renewed his seat, which conserves.
between 2003 and 2011 Marine Le Pen served as Vice-President of the FN, and in January 2011 was proclaimed President of the same, instead of his father. In cantonal elections in March of that same year, the training obtained a significant rise, with the 11% of the votes and managed to get in these local institutions. In May 2011, Le Pen was elected candidate for the 2012 presidential elections, which managed to be in third position.
media or populist, according to who refers to her, his electoral climbing strengthened is, by far, during the European elections of 2014, in which his party became the most voted training in France, with 25% of the votes. The new dimension of the FN, which for the first time in its history came in head in a national election, provoked a political earthquake in France and led to Marine Le Pen to demand early elections.
in June 2015, Le Pen managed to form own group in the European Parliament, and in December of that year his party tripled the number of advisers in regional elections staying one step away from the victory, after have been imposed in the first round. Months earlier, Marine Le Pen had protagonizado a sound clash with his father when, after a statement on the Holocaust poured by the Patriarch, this was expelled from the party. Then the founding leader accused his daughter of his “political murder” which resulted in a rift that persists.
marine Le Pen has been subject of several judicial investigations in relation to statements susceptible to crime. In 2014, the French courts confirmed also the opening of an investigation against her for alleged irregular funding some campaigns, and earlier this month of February, MEPs you was half of his salary for an embezzlement of 340,000 euros.
le Pen represents new generation of the FN, and aims to develop a Government culture in the political formation and give a “new image” to the formation. In this sense, usually deny accusations of xenophobia, and just say that it advocates a “ deterrent immigration policy”. a sorrow that is considered more moderate than his father, Marine Le Pen defends the death penalty openly criticizing the unions and is opposed to to Muslims pray in public in the streets, something which describes as a “political act” and that compares with a “occupation in all rule”.
is mother of ‘s three children from his first marriage and is married in second marriage with Eric Dorio member of the FN.
137 François Fillon (conservative)
a veteran hit by scandal
great possibilities of victory, the conservative François Fillon had initially (62 años), candidate of the rally for the Republic (RPR, Center-right), were seriously depleted in early January, just three months of presidential elections ” , when the former Prime Minister under the Presidency of Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012) was involved in a scandal, following the publication by the satirical weekly Le Canard Enchaîné of so-called fictitious jobs of his wife as his Parliamentary Assistant and another Member, and as a collaborator of a magazine, for a global salary close to EUR 1 million . the judicial investigation was then extended to two of their children which, at the time that Fillon was Senator, were hired as yours when still not had qualified as lawyers.
the former Prime Minister has assured it only will withdraw from the race to the Elysee in case of being accused. However, has also asked forgiveness for having employed your spouse: “it was a mistake, but I did not do anything illegal. “ I am deeply sorry and I present my excuses”, declared the past day 6.
with a program that combines a liberal approach economically and morally conservative, Fillon is in favour of to drastically reduce the number of civil servants with a plan that includes the removal of 500,000 jobs, compensated with an increase of working time in public jobs. In addition, has been proposed to eliminate one of the major measures of gala left in recent decades: working time of 35 hours.
François Fillon has liberalization of the economy, restoration of the authority of the State and the “statement of values” their priorities. His field of battle includes book the full adoption and heterosexual couples -assisted procreation and banning surrogate pregnancy (surrogacy), as well as quotes on all wages down. The conservative candidate expected to also reach a public expenditure savings of 100,000 million euros over five years, and increase in 12,000 million defense budget and security, and also advocates for mandatory uniform school or immigration reduced to a strict minimum.
of cold attitude and a tight personal life which has ajar with its public obligations, Fillon was born in Le Mans, in the bosom of a wealthy Gaullist family. Attorney at law came to politics in 1976, and in 1981 was elected Deputy, becoming at age 27 in the represent younger than the National Assembly. Minister of higher education (1993-1995) in the Executive of Edouard Balladur, and the owner of information technology (1995) and delegate Minister of telecommunications (1995-1997) in Alain Juppé, their portfolios include also social affairs (2002-2004) with Jean-Pierre Raffarin. Again at the forefront of education in 2004, when came to Government Headquarters the hand of Sarkozy, already treasured experience.
excluded from the new Executive of Dominque de Villepin in 2005, Fillon was elected Senator that same year, and then approached the UMP of Sarkozy, who, after being elected President (in 2007), appointed you Prime Minister. Fillon held the position until the socialiSTA François Hollande was elected President, in 2012. As head of the Government, lived the economic crisis that began in 2008, and that led to France to pass in 2010, among other measures, a controversial pension reform .
in November 2012 Fillon and Jean-François Cope staged an intense duel for the leadership of the UMP, which was finally resolved with the holding of primaries, in November 2016. In them, and against all odds, Fillon was able to unseat Sarkozy and Alain Juppé.
François Fillon is married since 1980 to Pénélope Clarke (of Welsh origin), and has five children. in 2006 he published the book France can stand the truth, title since then become one of their slogans.
Benoît Hamon (Socialist)
does the resurgence of the left? ”
Benoît Hamon, former Education Minister, represents the ruling party more leftist wing socialist, a formation in low hours, with the popularity seriously damaged and suffering from a major internal division. the past January 29, Hamon attained the candidacy of his training for the presidential elections, to be imposed on former Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Hamon (49 años) appears as a banner of a young and idealistic left, opposed to liberal renewal who embodied his rival. Faces the race to the Presidency without the support of his party apparatus and forced to go lousy outcomes surveys in which, for the moment, remains relegated in the fourth position, with just 14% of the votes.
defender of an ideology that bet by environmentalism less restrictive immigration policy, or legalization of cannabis, Hamon aims to also repeal the labor reform which promoted the own Valls sponsored by President Hollande. Its proposed star, however, is a universal basic income for all the French of age, an assignment that aspires to get back to the 750 euros per month and that it would apply “in a gradual way”.
a despite criticism – he has been called “wasteful” and “utopian”- Hamon has maintained this proposal and it has managed to win as well support of many young people, at a time in which the social-liberal Emmanuel Macron and neocomunista Jean-Luc Mélenchon are picking many of voters disenchanted with the Socialists. Another of the most commented measures of so-called candidate of the “bo-bos” – bourgeois et bohêmes burghers and Bohemians – is the create a special tax for companies that use robots to replace labor.
son of a Secretary and an engineer who worked in a military shipyard, Hamon grew up between the port Brest and the capital of Senegal, Dakar where he lived 9 to 13 years, due to the transfer of their parents to the African country. There he received a Catholic education which assumes, although he says he does not profess, even though is declared admirer of father Francisco. After returning to France, began military in the PS (at age 19) and She graduated in history.
a early 1990s his political career was consolidated to become the first President of the Socialist Youth. between 1995 and 2000 became Advisor to the then-leader of the Socialist Party, Lionel Jospin and subsequently of Martine Aubry when this was Minister of employment, and devised the 35-hour workweek. between 2004 and 2009 he held a seat in the European Parliament and later became spokesman for the PS (2008-2012), until member of the National Assembly was elected in 2012.
in the first Government of Hollande, Hamon served as head of consumption (2012-2014) and, later, became the holder education for just four months. he resigned in August 2014, discontent with the “politics of austerity” of the executive led by the then Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, who would remain in the post until 2016.
couple in fact a high Executive of Danish origin, the polyglot Gabrielle Guallar that has two daughters Hamon admires the legendary Boxer Muhammad Ali, one of whose slogans, “the impossible is temporary,” says have embraced.