Gold $1265.90 up $0.30
Silver 17.45 DOWN 5 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold: 1266.80
Silver: 17.55
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON
.
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai morning fix OCT 21 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1267.78
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1264.25 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1269.33
NY ACCESS PRICE: 1264.60 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)
HUGE SPREAD TODAY!! 5 dollars
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London Fix: OCT 21: 5:30 am est: $1263.95 (NY: same time: $1264.20: 5:30AM)
London Second fix OCT 20: 10 am est: $1266.05 (NY same time: $1266.35 , 10 AM)
Shanghai premium in silver over NY: 87 cents.
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.
end
For comex gold:
618 NOTICES FILED FOR 61,800 OZ
For silver:
for the Oct contract month: 7 notices for 35,000 oz.
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Let us have a look at the data for today
.
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In silver, the total open interest ROSE by 925 contracts UP to 194,093. The open interest ROSE EVEN as the silver price was DOWN 12 cents in yesterday’s trading .In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .973 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).
In silver for October we had 7 notices served upon for 35,000 oz
In gold, the total comex gold ROSE by 412 contracts despite the FALL in price of gold ($2.30 YESTERDAY) . The total gold OI stands at 504,027 contracts.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD
TODAY WE HAD A GIGANTIC CHANGES AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 16.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ (WHAT A FRAUD!!)
Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 953.56 tonnes of gold
SLV
we had ANOTHER MONSTROUS CHANGES at the SLV/A DEPOSIT OF 3.226 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV
THE SLV Inventory rests at: 366.366 million oz
.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE by 925 contracts UP to 194,093 as the price of silver FELL by 12 cents with yesterday’s trading.The gold open interest ROSE by 412 contracts UP to 504,027 as the price of gold FELL $2.30 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING.
(report Harvey).
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
2c) COT report
(Harvey)
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 6.98 POINTS OR 0.21%/ /Hang Sang closed FOR HOLIDAY. The Nikkei closed DOWN 50.91 POINTS OR 0.30% Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.22% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7635/Oil ROSE to 50.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and 51.66 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL MIXED Offshore yuan trades 6.7740 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7635 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS HUGELY AS MORE USA DOLLARS LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES
REPORT ON JAPAN SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA
3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA
none today
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
none today
c) REPORT ON CHINA
i)For the past 11 days we have seen the yuan weaken against the dollar. Last night we witnessed a huge devaluation of .35% to 6.7635 with the off shore yuan falling to 6.7740.
It is now obvious that China is again sending a message to Janet that she must not raise rates in the December meeting. She paid attention last time China threw a tantrum
( zero hedge)
ii)WOW!! China is releasing a huge amount of USA treasuries. Goldman Sachs states that Sept FX flows surged to 78 billion USA: total for the year so far a stunning 500 billion usa
( zero hedge)
4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Germany’s largest potash producer has just seen their bonds reduced to junk. The problem of course is that the ECB has bought huge amount of their bonds and now European taxpayers are now on the hook for this junk debt
the fun begins..
( zero hedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
The USA has encircled Mosul but left the west side open so the jihadists can exit freely to Raquaa. Moscow is not thrilled with the antics of the uSA
( vaughan Famularo/the Duran.com)
6.GLOBAL ISSUES
i)David Rosenberg is calling for a massive multi trillion helicopter money stimulus by all parties to kick start the global economy:
( Rosenberg/Gluskin Sheff/zero hedge)
ii)Canada walks out of European trade talks known as CETA as they say the deal is impossible. No doubt they will also walk way from the TPP
( zero hedge)
7.OIL ISSUES
This should cause oil production to rise; the rig counts spike to 8 months high
( zero hedge)
8.EMERGING MARKETS
none today
9.PHYSICAL STORIES
iA great read from Koos Jansen this morning on physical gold demand
(courtesy Koos Jansen/GATA)
ii)A terrific commentary today from Alasdair Macleod as he does his exercise in determining the value of gold with the understanding of the huge amount of fiat currency released into the world.
( Alasdair Macleod)
iii)Costs to banks would triple according to new rules for long term funding of refiners of gold. This would no doubt cause jewelry to be more costly
( Sanderson/London’s Financial times)
iv)The yuan’s inclusion in SDR has so far done nothing for the price the gold. However China wants gold to be included as a 6th currency. We are in lockdown mode waiting for the USA election
( GATA/Bll Murphy.Reluctant Preppers)
10.USA STORIES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER
i)The new wikileaks emails confirm that the Democratic National Committee was behind the violence at all the Trump rallies. No wonder he does not want to say that he would agree with the election results on November 8.
( zero hedge)
ii)And now on Nov 1, health premiums are set to skyrocket and this should blow up Obamacare
( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)
iii) This does not look too good: heavily armed police are gathering outside the Ecuadorian Embassy in London. They will no doubt go after Assange;
( zero hedge)
Let us head over to the comex:
The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY 412 CONTRACTS to an OI level of 504,027 as the price of gold FELL $2.30 with YESTERDAY’S trading.
We are in the delivery month is October and here the OI GAINED 392 contracts UP to 693. We had 10 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED 402 contracts or 40,200 additional oz will stand for delivery.
The next delivery month is November and here the OI FELL by 116 contract(s) DOWN to 2745 contracts. This level is extremely elevated as generally November is a very poor delivery month.To give you an idea of size, on Oct 21 2015, we had an OI of only 266 contracts standing.The next contract month and the biggest of the year is December and here this month showed an increase of 26 contracts up to 372,238.
Today we had 618 notices filed for 61,800 oz of gold.
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And now for the wild silver comex results. Total silver OI ROSE BY 925 contracts from 193,168 up to 194,093 as the price of silver FELL to the tune of 12 cents yesterday. We are moving further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3: (224,540). The next non active delivery month is October and here the OI fell by 72 contracts down to 96. We had 85 notices filed yesterday so we gained 13 contracts or 65,000 additional oz will stand for delivery.The November contract month saw its OI LOSE 1 contract DOWN to 327. The next major delivery month is December and here it FELL BY 105 contracts DOWN to 150,815.
we had 7 notices filed for 35,000 oz
VOLUMES:
Today the estimated volume was 109,834 contracts which is poor.
Yesterday, the confirmed volume was 149,287 which is also fair.
today we had 1 notice filed for 5,000 oz of silver:
INITIAL standings for OCTOBER
Oct 21.
Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil
32.15 oz
Manfra
1 KILOBAR
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
66,456.117 oz
BRINKS
No of oz served (contracts) today
618 notices
61,800 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
75 contracts
7,500
oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9163 contracts
916,300 oz
28.500 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
318,505.5 oz
Today we had 1 kilobar transactions,
Today we had 0 deposit into the dealer:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
We had zero dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
.
We had 1 customer deposit;
i) Into Brinks: 66,456.117 oz
total customer deposits;66,456.117 oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal(s)
i) Out of MANFRA; 32.15 oz (1 KILOBAR)
total customer withdrawal: 32.15 oz
We had 0 adjustment(s)
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Total dealer inventor 2,236,180.879 or 69.559 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,529,985.453. or 327.526 tonnes
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 327.526 tonnes for a gain of 25 tonnes over that period. Since August 8 we have lost 26 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
For October:
Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued form their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 618 contracts of which 1 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 82 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.
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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the Oct contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9163) x 100 oz or 916,300 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (693 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (618) x 100 oz per contract equals 916,300 oz, the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of September.
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:
No of notices served so far (9163) x 100 oz or ounces + {OI for the front month (693) minus the number of notices served upon today (618) x 100 oz which equals 864,500 oz standing in this non active delivery month of Oct (28.734 tonnes).
we GAINED additional 40,200 oz standing in this active delivery month of October and that is a record standing for any October from the beginning of time. To give you an idea of size from last yr, we had only a little over 2 tonnes standing at the conclusion of Oct 2015!
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I have now gone over all of the final deliveries for this year and it is startling.
First of all: in 2015 for the 12 months: 51 tonnes delivered upon for an average of 4.25 tonnes per month.
Here are the final deliveries for 2016:
Jan 2016: .5349 tonnes (Jan is a non delivery month)
Feb 2015: 7.9876 tonnes (Feb is a delivery month/deliveries this month very low)
March 2015: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
April: 12.3917 tonnes (April is a delivery month/levels on the low side
And then something happens and from May forward deliveries boom!
May; 6.889 tonnes (May is a non delivery month)
June; 48.552 tonnes ( June is a very big delivery month and in the end deliveries were huge)
July: 21.452 tonnes (July is a non delivery month and generally a poor one/not this time!)
August: 44.358 tonnes (August is a good delivery month and it came to fruition)
Sept: 8.4167 tonnes (Sept is a non delivery month)
Oct; 28.734 tonnes so far.
total for the 10 months; 181.6869 tonnes
average 18.168 tonnes per month vs last yr 51 tonnes total for 12 months or 4.25 tonnes average per month.
Something big is going on inside the gold comex.
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The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine
IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS 26 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
OCT INITIAL standings
Oct 21. 2016
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,955.410 oz
scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
7 CONTRACT(S)
(35,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
89 contracts
(445,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
448 contracts (2,240,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
5,191,804.6 oz
today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals:
Total customer withdrawals: nil oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i) Into Scotia: 600,955.410 oz
total customer deposits; 600,955.410 oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)
Volumes:
Today the estimated volume was 35,441 which is fair.
Yesterday the confirmed volume was 60,610 which is EXCELLENT
The total number of notices filed today for the Oct contract month is represented by 7 contract(s )for 35,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 448 x 5,000 oz = 2,240,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (96) and the number of notices served upon today (7) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing
Thus the initial standings for silver for the OCT contract month: 448(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(96) OI for front month of SEPT ) -number of notices served upon today (7)x 5000 oz equals 2,685,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. THIS IS STILL A HUGE SHOWING FOR SILVER AS OCTOBER IS GENERALLY A VERY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH.
We gained 65,000 additional silver ounces THAT WILL STAND.
Total dealer silver: 29.707 million (close to record low inventory
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 174.638 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW close to its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016. The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.
end
At 3:30 we receive the COT report which gives us position levels of our major players. Last week saw a huge covering of short positions by our commercials.
Let us see what these crooks did this week:
First: the gold COT
Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Total
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
Long
Short
274,345
94,727
56,255
115,441
318,112
446,041
469,094
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-9,041
6,560
5,372
3,079
-15,449
-590
-3,517
Traders
177
116
88
50
54
277
213
Small Speculators
Long
Short
Open Interest
51,020
27,967
497,061
-2,677
250
-3,267
non reportable positions
Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Our large speculators:
those large specs that have been long in gold pitched a huge 9,041 contracts from their long side.
those large specs that have been short in gold added 6560 contracts to their long side
Our commercials
those criminal banks that are long in gold added 3027 contracts to their long side
those banks that have been short in gold covered another whopping 15,449 contracts from their short side.
Our small specs;
Those small specs that have been long in gold pitched 2677 contracts from their long side
those small specs that have been short in gold added a small 250 contracts to their short side.
Conclusions; commercials go net long by another 12,422 contracts and that is bullish
However the regulators should never allow these crooks to play in this game in the first place.
And now for our silver COT
.
Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
94,230
34,944
14,570
53,771
128,682
-3,297
310
3,117
1,597
-1,127
Traders
103
49
42
35
38
Small Speculators
Open Interest
Total
Long
Short
189,229
Long
Short
26,658
11,033
162,571
178,196
343
-540
1,760
1,417
2,300
non reportable positions
Positions as of:
158
112
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
© SilverSeek
Our large speculators:
those large specs that have been long in silver pitched 3297 contracts from their long side.
those large specs that have been short in silver added a tiny 310 contracts to their short side.
Our commercials;
those commercials that have been long in silver added 3117 contracts to their long side
those commercials that have been short in silver added 1597 contracts to their short side.
Our small specs:
those small specs that have been long in silver pitched a huge 3575 contracts from their long side.
those small specs that have been short in silver covered a tiny 34 contracts from their short side.
Conclusions: commercials go net long by 1520 contracts and they still are having trouble trying to cover their huge short position
end
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
OCT 21/A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 16.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.56 TONNES
OCT 20/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD OF 2.94 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 970.17 TONNES
OCT 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 967.21 tonnes
OCT 18/A DEPOSIT OF 1.78 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT967.21 TONNES
OCT 17/ A DEPOSIT OF 3.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 965.43 TONNES/IN 10 DAYS 16.29 TONNES DEPOSITED
Oct 14./NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD
OCT 13/a deposit of 2.67 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 961.57 tonnes
Oct 12/No changes in inventory/inventory rests at 958.90 tonnes
Oct 11/ what!!! we had a gigantic 9.76 tonnes of inventory increase today/inventory rests at 958.90 tonnes. (this was done with gold down?)
Oct 7: 949.14 tonnes
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Oct 21/ Inventory rests tonight at 953.56 tonnes
*IN LAST 15 DAYS: 3.37 TONNES ADDED INTO THE GLD
end
Now the SLV Inventory
OCT 21/A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 3.226 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 366.366 MILLION OZ
oCT 20/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.140 MILLION OZ
oCT 19/a good sized change at the SLV inventory: a deposit of 855,000 oz/rests at 363.140 million oz/
OCT 18/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.285 MILLION OZ
OCT 17/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 362.285 MILLION OZ/
oCT 14: A HUGE ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 1.138 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.285 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/ NO CHANGES in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 361.147 million oz
Oct 12:NO CHANGES in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 361.147 million oz
Oct 11/ a withdrawal of 1.762 million oz of inventory from the SLV/Inventory rests at 361.147 million oz/
.
Oct 21.2016: Inventory 366.366 million oz
end
NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada
Central fund data not available today.
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 3.3 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 3.3% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 60.9%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.1%
cash .+1.0%( Oct 21/2016).
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium FALLS to +0.74%!!!! NAV (OCT 21/2016)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO 0.99% to NAV ( OCT 21/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back into POSITIVE territory at 0.74% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at 0.99%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
end
And now your overnight trading in gold,FRIDAY MORNING and also physical stories that may interest you:
Trading in gold and silver overnight in Asia and Europe
US Mint Silver Eagle Demand – ‘Returned with a Vengeance’
by GoldCore
Oct 21, 2016 7:52 AM
As gold and silver step back slightly to sit and wait for US economic data to be released later today we bring you news of the US Mint Silver Eagle demand that has ‘Returned with a Vengeance’ as reported by silverseek.com.
Last month it seemed some of the heat had come out of the US Mint Silver market when sales had failed to maintain the momentum seen in the first five months of the year when between 5.9m and 4 million coins had been sold each month.
But things have dramatically picked up. Sales of US Mint Silver Eagles in the month of October have reached 2,925,000, 75% higher than those seen in September when just 1,675,000 were sold, reports silverseek.com. Buyers have already bought more than the previous record month of June when they snapped up some 2,837,000. Given October’s buying patterns commentators now expect sales to touch 4,000,000 in total should the pace continue.
Silver Eagle sales this year lift the tally higher than all but five of the years in the last thirty.
Last year sales reached 47 million coins, and have reached over 35.35 million coins this year. At present the buying pace is not keeping up with the record year that was 2015, but it isn’t far off. We’re 80% through the year and sales are 71% of last year’s total.
The sales figures for October-to-date are not that surprising when you consider the 1 million coins that were shifted in 24 hours by the US Mint earlier this month as the price fell to $17.65/oz. source
One reason for the drop off over the summer may have been the silver price. Last July, the sub $15/oz price of silver saw investors snapping up coins from authorised dealers, this year summer saw highs of over $20/oz prompting some buyers to draw a profit.
silverseeker.com also draws our attention to Gold Eagles which are also set to outperform September’s sales numbers of 94,000 compared to 84,000 this month to-date. If buying remains at pace, sales could reach 130,000 coins making this month the highest of 2016 beating the January record of 124,000.
Unlike Silver Eagles, Gold Eagles’ buying rate has outpaced that seen in 2014 and 2015. In the months from January to September, 692,000 ounces were sold, an increase from 670,000 in 2015 and 379,000 in 2014.
All of this is clearly positive news given Thomson Reuters (and the FT’s trumpet fare) reported that net sales volumes to retail investors in the US of gold and silver coins and bars fell 40 to 50 per cent in the third quarter.
Coining the landscape
Silver and gold coin sales have been an interesting indicator of economic and political sentiment, over the years but none more so since the financial crisis in 2008.
Between 1987- 2000, fifteen SilverEagles were sold for every 1oz Gold Eagle. This nearly doubled between 2001 and 2007 when the ratio climbed to 29:1. But post financial crisis in 2008 things really exploded. In the first six years (2008- 2014) the ratio averaged 49:1.
In March this year the ratio hit a huge 141.59 times more Silver Eagles sold than gold, this has gradually fallen and in August this year the ratio fell to just 25.61 Silver Eagles to every one Gold Eagle sold.
Given that global production of silver has recently only been about 8.5 times more than gold, you can see where we are going in terms of shortages.
As Goldcore reported, in 2015 the US Mint, Royal Canadian Mint and Perth Mint each set new records for silver coin sales. This has seemingly continued this year against a backdrop of increased political uncertainty as earlier this year the Royal Mint reported a ‘surge’ in demand for coins following the Bank of England’s decision to cut base rates to 0.25% in August.
Future for silver
Longer term, we expect silver to return to and surpass the nominal silver bullion high of $50/oz seen in 1980 and very nearly again in April 2011.
The fundamentals for the silver price remain strong, as they do for gold which many expect to see bottom out at $1,250/oz.
Countries continue to import silver for industrial and technological purposes and whilst mining companies are bringing up more silver than ever before their capital is low, which implies future shortages in both the gold and silver supply chains.
At present the US dollar’s strength is driven by the weakness of other currencies, this will remain the case as any other factors (namely a rate hike) are unlikely take effect prior to the US election.
This will no doubt impact gold and silver which look out over a horizon that includes Brexit, a tricky French election, Italian referendum (both of which may rock the Euro) and a struggling banking sector including RBS and Deutsche Bank which are both down this year.
So whilst the market is distracted by a seemingly strong dollar, its important to remember that the situation that is keeping it strong will remain after an election which will no doubt take its toll on it. This will only be good for gold and silver, and in the meantime why not take advantage of cheaper silver coins.
Read Silverseek’s piece here.
Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary
Gold inches down as dollar firms, but set for weekly gain (FinancialExpress)
Gold futures mark first decline in 4 sessions (MarketWatch)
Wall Street dips as Verizon drags; AmEx curbs losses (Reuters)
ECB leaves door open to more stimulus, points to December meeting (Reuters)
Leading indicators point to moderate U.S. growth (MarketWatch)
Fed risks repeating Lehman blunder as US recession storm gathers (Telegraph)
Why are fund managers suddenly terrified (MoneyWeek)
Inflation is heading your way – here’s how to prepare your portfolio (MoneyWeek)
David Rosenberg Calls For A Multi-Trillion, “Helicopter Money” Stimulus Package (ZeroHedge)
SilverSeek (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-20/david-rosenberg-calls-multi-trillion-helicopter-money-stimulus-package)
Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
21 Oct: USD 1,263.95, GBP 1,033.79 & EUR 1,160.69 per ounce
20 Oct: USD 1,269.20, GBP 1,034.65 & EUR 1,156.75 per ounce
19 Oct: USD 1,269.75, GBP 1,031.29 & EUR 1,154.97 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 1,261.65, GBP 1,031.15 & EUR 1,145.33 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 1,252.70, GBP 1,029.59 & EUR 1,139.58 per ounce
14 Oct: USD 1,256.15, GBP 1,028.79 & EUR 1,140.08 per ounce
13 Oct: USD 1,258.00, GBP 1,029.93 & EUR 1,141.76 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
21 Oct: USD 17.51, GBP 14.34 & EUR 16.08 per ounce
20 Oct: USD 17.60, GBP 14.35 & EUR 16.03 per ounce
19 Oct: USD 17.69, GBP 14.38 & EUR 16.11 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 17.65, GBP 14.37 & EUR 16.03 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 17.40, GBP 14.30 & EUR 15.83 per ounce
14 Oct: USD 17.47, GBP 14.28 & EUR 15.86 per ounce
13 Oct: USD 17.59, GBP 14.40 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– Cashless Society – War On Cash to Benefit Gold?
– “Higher Gold Prices” On Global Trade Slowdown – HSBC
– Euro “Will Collapse” As Is “House of Cards” Warns Architect of Euro
– Property Bubble In Ireland Developing Again
– “Gold Is A Great Hedge Against Politicians” – Goldman
– Sell Gold Now – Time To Liquidate Gold ETF, Pooled and Digital Gold
– Gold In GBP Up 43% YTD – “Massive Twin Deficits” To Impact UK Assets
– Ron Paul Says “Gold Going Up” Whether Trump Or Clinton Elected
– Gold Trading COT Report “Means Lower – Then Much Higher – Prices Coming”
– Currency Shock Sees Sterling Gold Surges 5% In One Minute “Flash Crash”
– Top Gold Forecaster: “As Quickly As Gold Fell” May “Rally Back” on Global Risks
– Gold Buying ‘Opportunity’ After Surprise 3.4% Drop
– Deutsche Bank “Is Probably Insolvent”
END
Lawrie Williams reports on SGE gold withdrawals. rose from 144 tonnes for the month of August to 170 tonnes for September. In September the average was a very respectable 42.5 tonnes per week.. Lawrie states that gold withdrawals = demand is down from last year.
I believe they are down because China is having a little more difficulty in obtaining physical metal.
Demand is looking around 1800 tonnes. The Indians bring in around 1200 tonnes and together. The world produces ex China ex Russia, 2300 tonnes so it is still 700 tonnes above total annual gold supply
(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp’s Pixley)
LAWRIE WILLIAMS: SGE gold withdrawals picking up but well down y-o-y
OCT
21
It’s taken a few days longer than usual for the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) to report its eptember gold withdrawals figure – no doubt as an after-effect of the week long Golden Week holiday which meant the Exchange was closed for most of the first week of October. The latest figures did show though that withdrawals that month were comfortably higher than in August, but still well down on those for September 2015 – but 2015 was a huge record year for SGE withdrawals.
Shanghai Gold Exchange Monthly Gold Withdrawals (Tonnes)
Month
2016
2015
2014
% change 2015-2016
% change 2014-2016
January
225.08
255.42
246.00
– 11.8%
-8.5%
February*
107.60
156.36
171.67
– 31.2%
-37.3%
March
183.24
213.35
146.56
-14.1%
+25.0%
April
171.40
195.45
129.59
-12.3%
+32.2%
May
147.28
162.15
129.34
-9.2%
+13.8%
June
138.51
195.67
128.03
– 29.2%
+8.2%
July
117.58
285.50
137.53
– 58.8%
-14.4%
August
144.44
265.27
161.95
– 45.6%
-10.8%
September
170.90
259.98
202.43
October
176.29
201.11
November
202.71
212.49
December
228.21
235.66
Year to end September
1,406.03
1,989.15
1,250.67
-29.3%
-1.0%
Full Year
2,596.37
2,102.36
Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange, Lawrieongold.com
As can be seen from the above table, SGE gold withdrawals for the first three quarters of the year are running around 29% lower than a year ago, but the figures still remain substantial in terms of overall global gold flows. Some equate SGE gold withdrawals to total Chinese gold demand – others suggest it may overstate the true picture, although known gold imports plus Chinese new mined gold production together with a relatively small recycling figure put total Chinese demand around the 2,000 plus tonne level – which corresponds much more closely with the SGE withdrawals totals and remains far higher than that of the mainstream analysts like GFMS and Metals Focus which put the figure at around half of that. But then, much depends on what is included in demand figures with the mainstream analysts tending to ignore ‘consumption’ by the Chinese banking sector for financial transaction purposes – and those figures can be substantial.
Regardless of the accuracy or otherwise of the SGE figures, they do at least tend to confirm that Chinese gold demand has been slipping so far this year, in line with virtually all recent analyses – but it does appear to be picking up, although still not to last years’ exceptionally high monthly levels at this time of year. Currently we are looking at a projected total for the year of around 1,875 tonnes, but with a possible build-up in demand ahead of the Chinese New Year, one can’t rule out another 2,000 tonne full year total – similar to 2014.
http://news.sharpspixley.com/article/lawrie- williams-sge-gold-withdrawals-picking-up-but-well-down-y-o- y/258234/
-END-
A great read from Koos Jansen this morning on physical gold demand
(courtesy Koos Jansen/GATA)
Koos Jansen: The great physical gold supply-and-demand illusion
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2016-10-20 12:22. Section: Daily Dispatches
8:24a ET Thursday, October 20, 2016
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gold researcher Koos Jansen writes today that the major companies providing analysis of demand for metals underestimate demand for gold because they treat it more as a commodity than a currency. Jansen’s commentary is headlined “The Great Physical Gold Supply-and-Demand Illusion” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/the-great-physical-gold-su…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
A terrific commentary today from Alasdair Macleod as he does his exercise in determining the value of gold with the understanding of the huge amount of fiat currency released into the world.
(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)
Alasdair Macleod: Fiat money and gold
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2016-10-20 16:47. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney.com, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, October 20, 2016
It is time to revisit the Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ), which totals US dollar money deposited in the banking system, the commercial banks’ money on deposit at the Fed and physical cash.
Besides alerting us to how the expansion of fiat money is progressing, an objective of this exercise is to give some guidance on the price relationship with gold. It is particularly appropriate at a time when banking analysts have turned generally bearish, believing that the rally in gold is now over.
The idea behind FMQ is to define the quantity of fiat money, which can then be compared with the value of monetary gold, which is some or all of the above-ground stocks of physical gold. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://wealth.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/fiat-money-and-…
END
Costs to banks would triple according to new rules for long term funding of refiners of gold. This would no doubt cause jewelry to be more costly
(courtesy Sanderson/London’s Financial times)
Consumers will be hit by capital rules on gold, refiners say
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2016-10-20 17:13. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Henry Sanderson
Financial Times, London
Thursday, October 20, 2016
Gold refiners are warning that regulators’ plans that forces banks to utilise longer-term funding against their holdings of the precious metal will ultimately make it more costly for consumers buying jewellery.
Banks lend gold to refiners, which typically use it to pay suppliers and customers, but under new rules proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the costs to banks could triple, according to the London Bullion Market Association.
“It will mean the banks will pass this cost on,” said Grant Angwin, president of Asahi Refining, a Salt Lake City-based refiner with operations in five countries. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.ft.com/content/1045992c-951c-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
END
The yuan’s inclusion in SDR has so far done nothing for the price the gold. However China wants gold to be included as a 6th currency. We are in lockdown mode waiting for the USA election
(courtesy GATA/Bll Murphy.Reluctant Preppers)
Yuan’s inclusion in SDR did nothing for gold, GATA chairman notes
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2016-10-21 04:32. Section: Daily Dispatches
12:33a ET Friday, October 21, 2016
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Interviewed by Dunagan Kaiser for Reluctant Preppers, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy notes the failure of gold to respond positively to the Chinese yuan’s addition to the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights. He adds that he expects that gold and silver will be as tightly controlled as ever in advance of the U.S. presidential election. The interview is 14 minutes long and can be heard at You Tube here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXrRYkIUAz8&feature=youtu.be
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight
:
1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan UP to 6.7635( DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND HUGELY /CHINA UNHAPPY TODAY CONCERNING USA DOLLAR RISE/MORE $ USA DOLLARS LEAVE CHINA/OFFSHORE YUAN WIDENS TO 6.7740 / Shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 6.48 POINTS OR 0.21% / HANG SANG CLOSED FOR HOLIDAY
2 Nikkei closed DOWN 50.91 OR 0.30% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 103.76
3. Europe stocks opened ALL MIXED ( /USA dollar index UP to 98.53/Euro DOWN to 1.0889
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO -.052%/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 103.76/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY.
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 50.83 and Brent:51.66
3f Gold UP /Yen UP
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICO