Gold $1321.70 up $2.30
Silver 19.12 up 8 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold: 1320.75
Silver: 19.08
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON
.
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai morning fix Sept 29 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1329.99
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1324.25 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1326.88
NY ACCESS PRICE: 1322.00 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)
HUGE SPREAD TODAY!!
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London Fix: Sept 29: 5:30 am est: $1320.85 (NY: same time: $1321.75: 5:30AM)
London Second fix Sept 16: 10 am est: $1318.10 (NY same time: $1319.60 , 10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.
end
For comex gold:The front September contract month we had 6 notices filed for 600 oz
For silver: the front month of September we have a total of 468 notices filed for 2,340,000 oz
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Let us have a look at the data for today
.
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In silver, the total open interest FELL by 1010 contracts DOWN to 200,476. The open interest ROSE DESPITE THE FACT THAT the silver price was DOWN 5 cents in yesterday’s trading .In ounces, the OI is still represented by just MORE THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.0002 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).
In silver we had 468 notices served upon for 2,340,000 oz
In gold, the total comex gold FELL by 8755 contracts as the price of gold fell BY $6.50 YESTERDAY . The total gold OI stands at 574,406 contracts.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD
LAST NIGHT WE HAD NO CHANGES OUT OF THE GLD//
Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 949.14 tonnes of gold
SLV
we had no changes at the SLV
THE SLV Inventory rests at: 362.909 million oz
.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL by 1010 contracts down to 200,476 as the price of silver FELL by 5 cents with yesterday’s trading.The gold open interest FELL by 8,755 contracts DOWN to 575,406 as the price of gold fell $6.50 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING.
(report Harvey).
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
end
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 10.63 POINTS OR .30%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 119.82 POINTS OR 0.51%. The Nikkei closed UP 228.31 POINTS OR 1.39% Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.09% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6672/Oil FELL to 46.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 48.27 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE GREEN Offshore yuan trades 6.6771 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6672 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A BIT AS MORE USA DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES
REPORT ON JAPAN SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA
3a)Korea:
none
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
none today
c) REPORT ON CHINA
i)China’s beige book reveals real problems in the Chinese economy. We have highlighted to you last week that loan demand is down badly (corporate loans) while house loan demand is up (and thus the huge housing bubble)
( zero hedge)
ii)As we pointed out to you yesterday, China has a massive housing bubble which will burst at any time. There is not enough growth to sustain those higher prices
( zero hedge)
4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
i)Germany
Germany’s second largest bank Commerzbank this morning scraps its dividend and fires 20% of its workforce. And this is Germany, the powerhouse of Europe. The growth in the economy is just not existent.
( zero hedge)
ibMajor problems with Deutsche bank tonight as hedge funds that deal with DB as counterparties are withdrawing their funds as they fear the worst. Also there is a huge shortage of dollars similar to what happened with Lehman.European bank have just increased their demand for dollars by 6000%. Short dated CDS (credit default swaps on DB is skyrocketing.
Ladies and Gentlemen: I believe we are having a Lehman moment!
(courtesy zero hedge)
ic) On the same subject as above: he is correct on everything he asserts!
( Dave Kranzler/IRD)
ii)England
These bozos are planning ZIRP/NIRP in perpetuity!
( zero hedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
i)Russia vs USA
a)
What is wrong with these doorknobs: John Kerry gives Russia an ultimatum to stop bombing Aleppo or else…
nothing will happen
(courtesy zero hedge)
b)
This caused gold to rise about 4.00 dollars. Gold never jumps on anything so this was rather strange:
( zero hedge)
ii)Saudi Arabia vs USA
Obama is not a happy camper with the veto overide.
( zero hedge)
iii)Saudi Arabia
Huge problems in the kingdom: the Saudi Riyal fell badly, Saudi bank shares collapse and yields rise suggesting costs rising.
( zero hedge)
6.GLOBAL ISSUES
none today
7.OIL ISSUES
i)The bickering begins as Iraq disagrees with the OPEC method of oil production estimates:This deal has no chance of happening!
( zero hedge)
ib)Then Iraq claims it cannot accept this deal with the wrong Iraqi oil production. Unless changed the deal is off:
( zero hedge)
ii)Goldman Sachs must be long in oil: They state that the OPEC deal will add 10 dollars to the price of oil:
( Goldman Sachs/zero hedge)
8.EMERGING MARKETS
none today
9.PHYSICAL STORIES
i)A good paper today from Steve St Angelo on the demand for our 4 precious metals:
( Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco Report)
ii)Gold miner Petropavlovsk (Peter Hambro’s operation) finally turns a profit, its first in 4 years:
( London’s Telegraph)
iii)Shangdong gold is the top bidder from Glencore’s gold property is Kazakhstan
(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)
10.USA STORIES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER
i)Your humour story of the day:
Jobless claims at 40 yr lows:
( zero hedge)
ii)Final Q2 GDP comes in at only 1.4% but slightly higher than the expected 1.3%.This is an extremely slow growth.
( zero hedge)
iii)First it was Samsung phone exploded and now Apple 7 iphone just did the same. Apple’s stock and Nasdaq fell on the news. Can you imagine how those central bank’s feel that purchased Apple stock
( zero hedge)
iv) We now have a trifecta: First new home sales faltered, then existing home sales fell and now pending home sales slump to 7 month lows:
(courtesy NAR/zero hedge)
Let us head over to the comex:
The total gold comex open interest FELL BY AN HUGE 8,755 CONTRACTS to an OI level of 574,406 as price of gold FELL by $6.50 with YESTERDAY’S trading.We are continuing with the ritual that as soon as we approach the first day notice of an active month, the entire open interest complex obliterates. We are now in the NON active month of SEPTEMBER/
The contract month of Sept saw it’s OI fell by 108 contracts down to 36. We had 12 notices filed yesterday so we LOST 96 gold contracts or an additional 9600 gold ounces will NOT stand for delivery.THIS MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL!! WHY WOULD THEY STAND FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH, PUT UP ALL THE MONEY AND ROLL?. THESE GUYS WERE BOUGHT WITH WITH CASH PLUS A FIAT BONUS. The next delivery month is October and here the OI lost 4,614 contracts DOWN to 9,704. This level is still extremely elevated. To give you an idea as to its size, I will give you the burn rates for the 3 dates Sept 29 and Sept 30 last yr:
.
Sept 29.2015: 4351 contracts rolled vs SEPT 2016: 4614. (9704 still remaining)
Sept 30.2015: 1252 contracts rolled leaving 3092 OI standing or 309,200 oz (9.66 tonnes) standing for delivery. which was pretty good last yr.
We are a good 6,000 contracts ahead of last year. The next contract month of December showed an decrease of 7,478 contracts down to 450,651. The estimated volume today at the comex: 151,136 which is WEAK. Confirmed volume yesterday: 218,381 which is good.
Today we had 6 notices filed for 600 oz of gold.
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And now for the wild silver comex results. Total silver OI FELL BY 1010 contracts from 201,209 down to 20,476 as the price of silver fell to the tune of 5 cents yesterday. We are moving FURTHER FROM the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3: (224,540). We are now into the next active month of September and here the OI fell by 25 contracts down to 468. We had 30 notices filed upon yesterday so we GAINED 5 contracts or 25,000 additional oz will stand for delivery in this active month of September. The next non active delivery movement of October lost 1 CONTRACT TO 474 contracts. The next big delivery month is December and here it FELL by 2370 contracts DOWN to 171,352. The volume on the comex today (just comex) came in at 48,766 which is very good. The confirmed volume yesterday (comex and globex) was huge at 71,608 . Silver is not in backwardation. London is in backwardation for several months.
today we had 468 notices filed for silver: 2,340,000 oz
INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER
SEPT 29.
Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil
40,293.327 oz
Brinks
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
2999.94 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil
No of oz served (contracts) today
6 notices
600 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
30 contracts
(3000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2676 contracts
267,600 oz
8.323 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
192.90 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
539,307.9 oz
Today; very good activity at the gold comex and 0 kilobar entries and another large amount of gold leaving the comex( and they are real bars)
We had 1 dealer deposit:
i) Into Brinks: 2999.94 oz
Total dealer deposits; 2999.94 oz
We had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals; NIL oz
we had 0 customer deposit:
Total customer deposits: nil oz.
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of brinks; 1,321.17 oz real physical leaving
ii) out of HSBC: 38,972.157 oz real physical leaving
total customer withdrawals: 40,293.327 oz
Today we had 3 adjustments: and all have gold leaving the dealer and entering the customer which is probably a settlement:
i) Out of Brinks: 5700.02 oz leaves the dealer and enters the customer account of Brinks
ii) Out of HSBC: 4536.346 oz leaves the dealer and enters the customer account of HSBC
iii) Out of JPM: 7051.716 oz leaves the dealer account and enters the customer account of JPM
iv) Out of Scotia: 25,264.316 oz leaves the dealer account and enters the customer account
total leaving the dealer: 42,552.398 oz or 1.33 tonnes
Note:
If anybody is holding any gold at the comex, you must be out of your mind!!!
since comex gold storage is unallocated , rest assured any gold stored at the comex will be compromised!
I also urge all of you do not place any option trades at the comex as these gangsters will gun you down.
If you are taking delivery of gold/silver please remove it from comex banks and place it in private vaults
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Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued form their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6 contract of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by jPMorgan customer account.
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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2676) x 100 oz or 267,600 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (36 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (6) x 100 oz per contract equals 270,600 oz, the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of September.
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:
No of notices served so far (2676) x 100 oz or ounces + {OI for the front month (36) minus the number of notices served upon today (6) x 100 oz which equals 270,600 oz standing in this non active delivery month of SEPT (8.4167 tonnes).
We lost a monstrous 9600 oz that will not stand. We have surpassed our original standings on first day notice. (ON FIRST DAY NOTICE 7.5561 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY) as well as surpassing the 8 tonne mark and heading for the 9 tonnes. This is without a doubt a record level of gold ounces standing for September.
Total dealer inventor 2,106,348.626 or 65.516 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,538,630.254 or 327.79 tonnes
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 328.95 tonnes for a gain of 25 tonnes over that period. However since August 8 we have lost 26 tonnes leaving the comex.(corrected total from yesterday and today)
Ladies and Gentlemen: the comex is beginning to lose some of its gold as no doubt the Shanghai fix is having its effect.
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine. ALSO TODAY THE LIQUIDATION OF 96 CONTRACTS HAVING STOOD FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH AND THEN ROLLING MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE
IN THE LAST MONTH and one half , 26 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
Ladies and Gentlemen: We are now having our old fashioned run on the bank: the comex as gold is leaving by the buckets.
end
And now for silver
SEPT INITIAL standings
SEPT29. 2016
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
249,832.45 oz
Brinks
CNT, Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
468 CONTRACTS
(2,340,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
5 contracts
(25,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
3215 contracts (16,075,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
8,674,337.6 oz
today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks: 249,832.45 oz
Total customer withdrawals: 249,832.45 oz
We had 0 customer deposit:
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 2 adjustments and all probable settlements;
i) Out of Brinks: 188,725.15 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this entered the customer account of Brinks
ii) Out of CNT: 828,139.36 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of CNT
The total number of notices filed today for the SEPT contract month is represented by 468 contracts for 2,240,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (3215) x 5,000 oz = 16,075,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (468) and the number of notices served upon today (468) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing
Thus the initial standings for silver for the SEPT contract month: 3215(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(468 OI for front month of SEPT ) -number of notices served upon today (468)x 5000 oz equals 16,075,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.
we GAINED 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 oz will stand FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
Total dealer silver: 30.442 million (close to record low inventory
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 173.146 million oz (close to a record low)
The total open interest on silver is NOW close to its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016. The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.
end
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
SEPT 29/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 949.14 tonnes
SEPT 28/ NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.14 TONNES
SEPT 27/A huge withdrawal of 2.08 tonnes from the GLD/Inventory rests at 949.14 tonnes/
SEPT 26./no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 951.22 tonnes
SEPT 23/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .3 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 951.22 TONNES
Sept 22/a huge deposit of 6.53 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 950.92 tonnes/this would be a paper deposit entry/
SEPT 21/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.39 TONNES
SEPT 20/A HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.75 TONNES
SEPT 19/2016: 10.39 TONNES WERE ADDED INTO THE GLD/THIS WOULD BE A “PAPER DEPOSIT”/INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.61 TONNES
Sept 16./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 932.22 tonnes
SEPT 15/another paper withdrawal of 3.27 tonnes of “gold” inentory leaves the GLD/Inventory rests at 932.22 tonnes
SEPT 14./A withdrawal of 4.45 tonnes of gold inventory from the GLD/Inventory rests at 935.49 tonnes
SEPT 13/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 939.94 tonnes
Sept 12/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 939.94 tonnes
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SEPT 29/ Inventory rests tonight at 949.14 tonnes
end
Now the SLV Inventory
SEPT 29/we had no changes at the SLV/Inventory rests at 362.909 million oz/
SEPT 28/ WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.614 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.909 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 27./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 364.523 million oz/
SEPT 26./no changes in silver inventory at the SLV./Inventory rests at 364.523 million oz/
SEPT 23./A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN ADDITION OF 1.044 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.523 MILLION OZ/
Sept 22/no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 363.479 million oz/
SEPT 21/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.479 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 20/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.479 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/A HUGE ADDITION OF 1.045 MILLION OZ WAS ADDED INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.479 MILLION OZ/
Sept 16/no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 362.434 million oz/
SEPT 15/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 362.434 million oz.
SEPT 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 362.434 million oz
sept 13/2016: a huge deposit of 1.329 million oz into the SLV/Inventory rests at 362.434 million oz/
Sept 12/a huge withdrawal of 1.614 million oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 361.105 million oz
.
SEPT 29.2016: Inventory 362.909 million oz
end
NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 4.5 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 4.4% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 59.8%
Percentage of fund in silver:39.0%
cash .+1.2%( SEPT 29/2016).
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium RISES to +1.17%!!!! NAV (SEPT 29/2016)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO 1.06% to NAV ( SEPT 29/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back into POSITIVE territory at 1.17% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at 1.06%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
end
And now your overnight trading in gold,THURSDAY MORNING and also physical stories that may interest you:
Trading in gold and silver overnight in Asia and Europe
ECB Refused “To Answer Questions” – Deutsche Bank “Systemic Threat” Is “Not ECB Fault”
By Mark O’ByrneSeptember 29, 20160 Comments
The potential collapse of Deutsche Bank and the systemic risk it poses to banks and the European financial and monetary system moved into the German political sphere yesterday. The German government denied it was preparing a rescue of the embattled bank and the Bundestag attempted to ask questions of ECB President Mario Draghi about the causes of the “systemic risks” posed by the bank.
Ralph Orlowski | Reuters
ECB President Mario Draghi refused to answer questions in German parliament
The ECB president brazenly “refused to answer questions” regarding Deutsche Bank during a closed-door meeting in the German parliament. Afterwords in conversation with journalists, he denied that the negative interest rates being imposed by the ECB are partly responsible for Deutsche Bank and the German financial system’s troubles.
However, many analysts rightly assert that zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) and now negative interest rate policies (NIRP) are a factor and partly contributing to the challenges facing banks in much of the western world. Not to mention causing bubbles in many property markets and indeed in stock and bond markets.
Source FT
“If a bank represents a systemic threat it cannot be because of low interest rates. It has to be for other reasons,” Mr Draghi asserted to reporters somewhat dogmatically and simplistically. He was contradicted by the head of Germany’s BdB banking association, Michael Kemmer, who told Deutschlandfunk radio that the ECB’s low interest rate policy was partly responsible for the current problems that Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are facing.
This morning, Commerzbank, the second-biggest bank in Germany after Deutsche, suspended its dividend and revealed it is slashing more than 9,000 job losses as it too desperately tries to shore up its business in the face of ultra-low interest rates and increasing loan losses.
Anxiety over eurozone banks has risen since the market turmoil following the June UK vote to leave the EU. Until recently, however, concerns have focused on the bloc’s periphery, particularly banks in Italy.
Now the banking crisis is moving to the core. This poses the real risk of financial contagion in the European monetary system and the global banking system.
See “Euro Might Start To Unravel” If Collapse Of Deutsche Bank
Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary
Gold extends losses as dollar, stocks rise (Reuters)
Gold prices mostly steady in Asia as rates, politics and OPEC mix (Investing)
WTO cuts 2016 world trade growth forecast to 1.7 percent, cites wake-up call (Reuters)
City-by-city look as house price gains slow (MarketWatch)
IMF sounds alarm bells over trade slowdown and low inflation (Telegraph)
What the return of politics means for your money (MoneyWeek)
Dollar Going the Way of the Denarius (InternationalMan)
Transition of Price Discovery in the Global Gold and Silver Market (SafeHaven)
Will Deutsche Bank’s Collapse Be Worse Than Lehman Brothers? (GoldEagle)
Deutsche Bank To Blow Up and Create Euro “Chaos”? (DollarCollapse)
Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
29 Sep: USD 1,320.85, GBP 1,016.92 & EUR 1,177.14 per ounce
28 Sep: USD 1,324.80, GBP 1,020.10 & EUR 1,181.06 per ounce
27 Sep: USD 1,335.85, GBP 1,031.01 & EUR 1,187.84 per ounce
26 Sep: USD 1,336.30, GBP 1,033.23 & EUR 1,188.91 per ounce
23 Sep: USD 1,335.90, GBP 1,027.17 & EUR 1,192.16 per ounce
22 Sep: USD 1,332.45, GBP 1,019.59 & EUR 1,186.68 per ounce
21 Sep: USD 1,319.60, GBP 1,015.96 & EUR 1,183.81 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
29 Sep: USD 19.01, GBP 14.61 & EUR 16.95 per ounce
28 Sep: USD 19.12, GBP 14.69 & EUR 17.05 per ounce
27 Sep: USD 19.42, GBP 14.99 & EUR 17.26 per ounce
26 Sep: USD 19.44, GBP 15.04 & EUR 17.29 per ounce
23 Sep: USD 19.82, GBP 15.28 & EUR 17.66 per ounce
22 Sep: USD 19.88, GBP 15.22 & EUR 17.69 per ounce
21 Sep: USD 19.43, GBP 14.95 & EUR 17.43 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– Do You Really Own Your Gold?
– “Gold Will Likely Soar To A Record Within Five Years”
– Savings Guarantee? U.N. Warns Next Financial Crisis Imminent
– Gold Up 1.5%, Silver Surges 3% – Yellen Stays Ultra Loose At 0.25%
– Trump and Clinton Are “Positive For Gold” – $1,900/oz by End of Year
– Gold Bugs Rejoice – Central Banks Think You’re On To Something
– ‘Hard’ Brexit Looms For Ireland
– EU Bail In Rules Ignored By Italy – Mother Of All Systemic Threats and World War?
– Buy Gold – Bonds Are ‘Biggest Bubble In World’ – Billionaire Singer Warns
– Silver Bullion Market – “Most Bullish Story Ever Told?”
– “Sorry, You Can’t Have Your Gold Bullion”
– Global Stocks, Bonds Fall Sharply – Gold Consolidates After Two Weeks Of Gains
– Gold, Silver, Blockchain and Fintech – Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Cash Confiscations and Cashless Society
Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
Published in Daily Market Update
end
A good paper today from Steve St Angelo on the demand for our 4 precious metals:
(courtesy Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco Report)
THE TOP FOUR PRECIOUS METALS: Which Will Be The Best Investments During The Next Financial Crash
Filed in Economy, Energy, Mining, Precious Metals by SRSrocco on September 28, 2016 • 5 Comments
When the next financial crash occurs, investors need to understand which of the top four precious metals are the best to invest in. Unfortunately, there has been a great deal of faulty analysis that has mislead many investors about the fundamentals of gold, platinum, palladium and silver.
I will provide information in this article on the top four precious metals that has not been covered correctly by the majority of analysts. While some may have touched on individual aspects, very few have put together an in-depth analysis on these metals to properly educate investors.
However, before I get into the details of these top four precious metals, I would like to share some very important information.
When I wrote my article (few weeks ago) titled, THE COMING BREAKDOWN OF U.S. & GLOBAL MARKETS EXPLAINED: What Most Analysts Missed, it generated the most interest and commentary of any of my previous articles. It seemed to have hit a nerve in my followers and new readers.
In that article, I posted some of the charts by Louis Arnoux and the Hills Group. These charts explained the coming “Thermodynamic Collapse” of the oil price and global oil industry… in a relatively short period of time. Since then, I have had several long conversations with Louis on the science and math of their work.
Let me tell you all, any doubts I have had about the accuracy and legitimacy of their work… IS COMPLETELY GONE.
Folks… we are in a real mess. And the damned thing of it all, the world has no clue. While I have been pessimistic about the ramifications of peak oil and the Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment for many years, now I understand there is a TIME CLOCK. And, we don’t have much time.
I have mentioned in a few interviews and articles that I was planning to have these gentlemen on for an interview to explain their work on the “Thermodynamic Oil Collapse.” I’d planned to have them on already, but it took more time to understand the science behind their work. Basically, it took more time for me to wrap my mind around the ramifications of this work.
Furthermore, it is extremely important to present this information in a way in which individuals can “GET IT’ or “CONNECT THE DOTS.” Because, once an individual understands this information, it’s like taking the ULTIMATE RED PILL. Once you comprehend it, you can’t go back. Thus, it will force you to look at the world in a completely different way.
I will be wrapping up the discussion between Louis and the Hills Group, and we will have them on in the next few weeks to discuss their work. Moreover, I have decided that we will likely do several interviews to get the point across as well as discuss the dire ramifications.
Lastly, my article THE DEATH OF THE BAKKEN OIL FIELD HAS BEGUN: Means Big Trouble For The U.S., went viral on many sites a week ago. It received nearly 100,000 views on Zerohedge. However, a really bizarre event took place on the peakoil.com website. When it was posted on the peakoil.com site, it received the most comments ever (from what the members stated). Normally, there are only about 35 diehard members that leave comments. Most articles only received between 10-30 comments.
However, my DEATH OF THE BAKKEN article received nearly 300 comments on the peakoil.com site, and the majority of them came from 100+ new members that day. What was really bizarre, was that the comments from these new members were all negative and may have been generated by what is called, a TROLL BOT ATTACK . This is what some of the members of the site were discussing.
The peakoil.com site has been discussing peak oil for years, so the information in my article wasn’t anything new. Although, the way it was presented or the title must have hit a nerve to generate such a large barrage of negative comments. So, it seems as if the global oil industry is in a much bigger trouble than I realized.
Please stay tuned for our upcoming interview on the Thermodynamic Collapse of Oil. It will be the most important information for individuals and investors to understand.
The Important Fundamentals Of the Top Four Precious Metals
Mine Production:
As I mentioned in the beginning of the article, there is a lot of incorrect analysis on the top four precious metals that has confused investors to no end. I will try to clear this up.
Let’s look at the annual mine production of silver, gold, palladium and platinum. According to the Gold, Silver & Platinum Group Surveys provided by GFMS (Thomson Reuters), the world produced 877 million oz (Moz) of silver, 101 Moz of gold, 6.7 Moz of palladium and 6.1 Moz of platinum in 2015:
As we can see, there are 9 times more silver produced than gold, 15 times more gold than palladium and 16 times more gold than platinum. Many analysts have erroneously stated that due to the rarity of platinum or palladium, its value should be much higher than gold. Furthermore, other analysts believe the value of silver should be much higher than its current 69/1 price ratio to gold, due to there being only nine times more silver produced than gold.
The silver to gold production ratio may have been more a representation of the market value of these two precious metals hundreds of years ago or in ancient times, due to the way it was extracted from the earth (by human and animal labor). However, this has changed since the late 1800’s, as the energy sources of coal and oil replaced human and animal labor.
Gold, Platinum & Silver Estimated Production Cost:
The current values of the top four precious metals are based on their cost of production, not their production ratio. The chart below shows the estimated cost of production of gold, platinum and silver. I omitted palladium in my cost analysis below, because the largest producers of the metal are a by-product of nickel and platinum production. Regardless, I would imagine the few primary palladium producers probably produce palladium at the similar cost margins as gold, platinum and silver shown below:
My estimated breakeven for gold was based on using the mining companies of Barrick and Newmont. For platinum, it was Anglo American Platinum and Impala Platinum, and for silver,it was Pan American Silver and Tahoe Resources. These where the two largest primary metal producing companies for each metal.
NOTE: This was not my normal in-depth approach using many different formulas, but rather more of a simple cost approach using the mining companies net or adjusted income divided by total primary metal production. While the calculations could be more accurate, the figures above represent a pretty good estimated breakeven for these precious metals.
If we look at the chart above, we can see that the estimated break even for gold (Barrick & Newmont) in 2015 was $1,120 an ounce. The average price of gold in 2015 was $1,160. Thus, these top two gold mining companies made a $40 per ounce profit.
For platinum, the estimated breakeven was $1,130 in 2015, while the average price was $1,054. So, these top two platinum miners made a profit of $24 per oz. I believe this estimated platinum breakeven is a good estimate for the platinum industry as these two top companies produced 2.9 Moz of the total 6.1 Moz of platinum in 2015.
Now for silver. The top two primary silver mining companies estimated breakeven for 2015 was $15.00, while the average spot price was $15.68. Which means, these two primary silver miners made a profit of $0.68 an ounce. Actually, Tahoe Resources reported a very large profit, while Pan American Silver stated a loss in 2015. However, if we average these two companies, we come up with a $0.68 profit.
Basically, the profit margins of these three metals, based on my estimated breakeven, were 2.2% for platinum, 3.4% for gold and 4.5% for silver. These are very thin margins. These production cost profiles of these metals are what I believe the traders and or algorithms use to value gold, platinum and silver. I would imagine the same would be true for palladium, even though I did not construct a breakeven analysis.
So, the value of these metals are not based on their production ratio, but rather their cost of production. Which means, any precious metal analyst who says, “gold is the key monetary store of value metal”, doesn’t understand that it is currently being valued as a MERE COMMODITY, just like platinum, palladium and silver.
However, my analysis suggests the current gold and silver “commodity priced mechanism” will change to a high quality store of value when the worst financial crash in history takes place in the near future.
The Top 4 Precious Metals Investment:
While most precious metals websites focus on promoting gold and silver investment, several are touting the benefit of owning platinum and palladium. Unfortunately, the majority of the reasons stated to own platinum or palladium may turn out to be incorrect or untrue in the future. That being said, let’s take a look at the percentage of physical retail investment versus total demand for each metal in 2015:
Gold was the clear winner as 39% of total demand was in physical retail and Central Bank investment. Gold was the only metal in which I included net Central Bank purchases. I excluded all investments (flows in or out) of ETF’s in each metal. Basically, the figures above represent physical retail investment (including Central Bank for gold).
Silver came in second as 23% of total demand was in bar and coin investment. As we can see, platinum investment was 6% of total demand, while palladium investment was only 0.5% (half percent) of total demand. All figures came from GFMS Gold, Silver & Platinum Metals Group Surveys.
I decided to take a longer view of physical investment of these metals, so the chart below shows the average over a five-year period (2011-2015):
We can clearly see, gold and silver retail physical investment represent the highest percentages of total demand in the group. For whatever reason, investors innately understand the 2,000+ year history of gold and silver as money or a high quality store of value.
Even though gold enjoys a much higher investment percentage (31%) of total demand in the five-year period, silver is the clear winner when it comes to total amount of metal (in ounces) invested by the public:
Investors purchased a total of 1,141 Moz (1.14 billion oz) of silver 2011-2015, while gold investment was 223 Moz, platinum was 1.3 Moz and palladium at a distant fourth at 0.2 Moz.
These figures reveal a very significant “mindset” or “psychology” of investor preference. Of course, the total Dollar amount of gold investment of the 223 Moz is much higher than the 1,114 Moz of silver, but the volume of metal purchased, proves that investors have a real affinity for silver.
Why Gold & Silver, Not Platinum & Palladium Will Be The Key Precious Metals To Own During The Next Financial Crash
Looking at these figures, I would suggest that gold and silver will be the go to assets during the next financial crisis, not platinum and palladium. While platinum and palladium could provide the investor with some relative store of value properties in the future, the upcoming Thermodynamic Oil Collapse will destroy the market’s ability to produce or consume platinum and palladium at anywhere near the current volumes.
Unfortunately, most of the public has no clue about investing in platinum or palladium or realizing these metals as a store of value. Most of the investment into these (true) industrial metals are a hedge or bet on future supply shortages or price spikes. Rather, gold and silver are known more to the public as money and true stores of value.
While silver is PIGEON-HOLED by the Mainstream media and by many of the precious metals analysts to be more of an industrial metal, it is still an excellent store of value as gold. The only difference is its cost of production. However, the cost of production will become less of a driver for the value of gold and silver in the future as the $250 trillion in Global Bonds, Stocks, Real Estate and Insurance Funds evaporate in the future.
Again, this will be due to the coming Energy Pearl Harbor, shown in one of Louis Arnoux’s charts below:
Unfortunately, very few people understand the energy cliff that is heading our way. Instead, they cling to a notion that while a financial crash will be difficult, once the dust settles, we will begin growing and expanding our economy based on real money. Folks, growth as we know it, will be over for good.
This is why it is important to understand the ramifications of this energy cliff. Investors who understand the implications of this energy cliff will consider moving out of most stocks, bonds and real estate and into physical gold and silver.
end
Gold miner Petropavlovsk (Peter Hambro’s operation) finally turns a profit, its first in 4 years:
(courtesy London’s Telegraph)
Gold miner Petropavlovsk turns first profit since 2012
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2016-09-28 12:25. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jon Yeomans
The Telegraph, London
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Russia-based gold miner Petropavlovsk has posted its first profit since 2012, as it looks to move on from a torrid few years.
Petropavlovsk reported a pre-tax profit of $4.8 million in the six months to June, against a loss of $26 million for the same period a year ago. Revenue slipped 14.5 percent to $254 million as gold production fell after poor weather in the Amur region of Russia where it mines.
The company nearly went bust in 2015 but now expects to close a refinancing deal with its creditors next month that will extend its debt repayment schedule to 2022. Petropavlovsk borrowed heavily this decade to fund expansion, only to be hit by a downturn in gold prices. In the first half of the year it slashed $12.4 million from its debt pile, bringing it down to $598 million.
Chairman Peter Hambro, a City veteran, said: “It’s been a long struggle, but even a small profit is better than what we had in the past.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/28/gold-miner-petropavlovsk-
END
Shangdong gold is the top bidder from Glencore’s gold property is Kazakhstan
(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)
Shandong Gold said to be top bidder for $2 billion Glencore mine
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2016-09-28 04:06. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Dinesh Nair and Vinicy Chan
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
China’s Shandong Gold Mining Co. has emerged as the lead bidder for Glencore’s gold mine in Kazakhstan, which may fetch about $2 billion in a sale, according to people familiar with the matter.
Shandong Gold, one of China’s largest gold producers, outbid other parties, including Silk Road Fund, which had teamed up with state-owned China National Gold Group Corp., the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. Glencore is still