Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 US Open
2016 US Open Fantasy Preview
We’re extra stoked this week because Major Championships are like holidays for us. Only a few times a year do the top fantasy sites like DraftKings roll out events for a chance to take home $1,000,000. Better yet, you’re not competing against a couple of hundred thousand people. Those are in no way state lottery odds; you actually have a pretty darn good chance at cashing in here. For you DraftKings newbies: if you haven’t thrown $20 at it and tested it out, by all means, make this the week that you do. Who knows–you may just get lucky.
This week, we’re both excited and nervous about the challenge that lies ahead at Oakmont. Although the course has been known to force golfers into a depression, we’re going to trust the stats and make our selections this week based purely this simple formula: current stats and current play. From what we’ve learned about Oakmont, both currently and dating back to the ’07 US Open there, we think we have a pretty solid grasp on which guys are the most primed to play well there.
The spotlight will be on the top dog, Jason Day. Arguably the hottest player on both the TOUR and in fantasy leagues week after week, Day comes in with confidence as a recent major winner, THE PLAYERS Champion, and the only three-time winner on TOUR this season. He was in contention last year at Chambers Bay, where he was tied with the 54-hole lead before a sudden case of vertigo knocked him right off course. Needless to say, since that point on, he’s become a powerhouse.
Embed from Getty Images
You can’t forget the other picks that will be featured with equally high price tags, like Spieth, McIlroy, Fowler, Mickelson, and Dustin Johnson. As much as we love DJ on long and daunting U.S. Open tracks, we need putters this week, and that’s be how we’re calculating our picks to win.
Also keep in mind this week that although the top dogs might be all the news is buzzing about, it’s actually the sleeper picks that will win you the million dollars in major events. Even if you pick the outright winner you’re roster isn’t making it’s way into the prize money without a few solid earners holding up the bottom ranks.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
In the end, our must-have ‘horse pick,’ Phil Mickelson, fell just short of a victory last week but still finished T2 while racking up a ton of fantasy points and proving to be a better pick than the price-heavy Dustin Johnson. Overall, the left-hander went 70-65-68-67, with eighteen total birdies throughout the week. Perhaps even more importantly, all of our featured players made the cut, however Scott Brown withdrew during play.
Since we are about halfway through the 2015-2016 season, let’s recap our winners to date as we look to expand the list this Sunday. We’re certainly due for another winner.
Justin Thomas (CIMB Classic)
Kevin Kisner (RSM Classic)
Jordan Spieth (Hyundai TOC)
Fabian Gomez (Sony Open)
Jason Dufner (Career Builder Challenge)
Bubba Watson (Northern Trust Open)
Adam Scott (WGC Cadillac Championship)
Charlie Hoffman (Valero Texas Open)
** Emiliano Grillo was our Sleeper Report pick for the Frys.com Open (Winner).
Last Week’s Sleeper Report Fantasy Results
Three of our sleeper picks made some noise this week including our Top Sleeper pick Retief Goosen, who finished T12 and our lowest-priced pick of Harold Varner, III, who came in T16 and has been trending as of late. This week we’ll leaning heavy on our sleeper picks to try and capture those one or two players finishing in the Top 5 along with a solid horse pick.
Last Week’s European Tour Fantasy Results
Congratulations to Wu Ashen for his big win at the Lyoness Open this past weekend. Although two of our European TOUR fantasy picks fell victim to the cut line, our horse pick Joost Luiten finished T6 along with two of our three mid-tier picks finishing T10 and T19.
Please note that due to this week’s major, there will be no European TOUR event this week.
The 2016 US Open Field
It’s a stacked field once again very similar to that of THE PLAYERS Championship not too long ago with the favorite being World No.1 Jason Day who has won seven events since last year’s U.S. Open. Along with Jason, you have close favorites including defending champion Jordan Spieth and 2011 winner Rory McIlroy.
The total field will include 59 players inside the Top 60 in World Rankings. There are a handful of slots still available for the event and roughly 11 amateurs will be in the field, but although they’ll be fun to watch, they shouldn’t weigh into your fantasy decisions.
With a field that consists of almost all of the greatest players in the world on arguably the toughest course, fantasy players will have their work cut out for them making picks this week. But it’s not impossible.
Prepare for a bout between some heavyweights this week!
A photo posted by Golf Channel (@golfchannel) on
Jun 3, 2016 at 7:56pm PDT
Here’s the full field from PGATOUR.com, which is obviously subject to change with any last-minute additions or withdrawals.
This Week’s Course Overview
Oakmont Country Club–some say that if hell had a golf course, this would be it–measures in at 7,254 yards and will play as a par 70. With an earned reputation of being America’s toughest track, Oakmont serves as the U.S. Open stage for a record ninth time in its 112-year history.
It is a very unforgiving track with ‘disappearing-ball trick’-type rough, undulating greens with speeds similar to a pool table’s surface on a tilt, tight fairways with tons of sand, and if that’s not enough we’re sure the wind will be a factor, too.
Justin Thomas posted this video over the weekend just to give all of us an idea of how difficult escaping from the rough will be. Accuracy before distance at Oakmont for sure.
A video posted by Justin Thomas (@justinthomas34) on
Jun 12, 2016 at 1:44pm PDT
The last PGA TOUR event played here was the 2007 U.S. Open with the winning golfer, Angel Cabrera, finishing the week at +5!
Here’s a look at the most talked about hole this week: the daunting 288-yard Par 3 8th hole.
Weather Forecast for Oakmont, PA
Most guys have been at Oakmont for over a week already, so despite the rain moving in, we’re pretty sure they’ve gotten in their prep. As if Oakmont wasn’t hard enough, we can expect rain to start rolling through during the first two rounds (making that thick rough even heavier), but the sun will break through for the weekend.
Believe it or not, the early-week rain might actually help the playing conditions this week by possibly slowing a few of these greens down a bit.
Last Year’s Results from the US Open
What a finish it was last year when Jordan Spieth became the youngest man to win both the Masters and U.S. Open in the same year. Jordan looked to be in control with a couple of holes to play, and it seemed as if a birdie would nail it down on the Par-5 18th—but it almost wasn’t.
Spieth hit a beautiful tee shot on 18 followed by a perfect approach that he thought was too far, as he screamed for the wind to ‘hit it a bit,’ and hit it it sure did. The ball hit a backstop on the green and settled nicely for a strong chance at eagle. He missed the eagle, tapped in for birdie, and simply held his breath.
Dustin Johnson’s second shot had result similar to Jordan’s, which gave him a 12-footer for what would have been the victory. DJ pushed it about four feet past the hole, which left him a makable birdie putt to force a playoff. As you all recall, DJ missed it by inches as Spieth looked on from the scoring tent, and the rest was history.
This is how it all unfolded in 2015:
This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
Television Broadcasts
Thursday (June 16, 2016) – Friday (June 17, 2016) 10:00 am – 5:00 pm EST (FOX Sports 1), 5:00pm-8:00pm (FOX)
Saturday (June 18, 2016) – Sunday (June 19, 2016) 11:00 am – 7:30 pm EST (FOX)
Mobile Broadcasts
Some coverage (e.g. featured groups and featured holes) will be provided this week via the U.S. Open iOS App.
RADIO
Thursday-Friday, 12:00 – 8:00pm EST, Saturday-Sunday 12:00 – 7:30 pm ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM)
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the 2016 US Open this Week
There is truly only one game you need to get involved with this week and that is the big $3.5 Fantasy Golf Millionaire we’ve all been waiting for. Here’s the breakdown:
$3.5M FANTASY GOLF MILLIONAIRE [$1M TO 1ST]: DraftKings will be capping this event at just a little over 200,000 players, however as of Monday morning, June 13, there was only 40,000 registered. So let’s say that doubles before Thursday; then essentially you’ll have a 1 in 80,000 chance to win $1 million. Yep, we’ll take those odds any day of the week. Here’s the best part, it’s only $20 to enter and you can take up to 200 lineups to increase your odds of winning big. Here is the full list of the prize money you can win for each place that you finish. For $20 bucks, its definitely worth a shot!
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2016 US Open
We referenced how difficult the course is in our course preview, but let’s dive a little deeper into the performance stats and see who sticks out from the field.
Players will be presented with blind tee shots into tight fairways, which are hugged by the shaggiest rough you can imagine. In case that wasn’t enough, Oakmont has 210 total bunkers with the most popular image of the course being the “Church Pews,” a row of bunkers alongside the fairways of holes 3 and 4.
And then there are the greens…
The dance floors at Oakmont actually pretty large in size, but you’ll see many undulations, runoffs, and crazy spin. In the last U.S. Open played at Oakmont, the field hit only 51.9% GIRs and 52% fairways!
All that said, our stats are favoring putting and accuracy this week as our key indicators. Here’s a quick example of how our Golficity Predicted Fantasy Points (GPFP) system works: The PGA TOUR does not offer you statistics in how players rank within the current event’s field, only overall on TOUR. Our indicators allow you to select a stat to instantly see where each player ranks among the rest of the field, therefore giving you a competitive edge over the fantasy competition.
The real strategy this week is selecting between Day, Spieth, and McIlroy. There are a ton of excellent options in the low $7,000 range this week, so you don’t have to worry about breaking the bank on your horse pick. Heck, if you’re feeling brave, take our mid and low-tier picks and try three rosters with each of the three as your horse. It’s not a bad strategy, and you could just win your $60 bucks back and then some.
Good luck this week and may one of our own Premium Members bring home the million!
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2016 US Open
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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Classic
Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 12/1) T2 ($462,933)
Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 20/1) T68 ($12,586)
Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 38/1) T26 ($44,950)
David Hearn (Golficity Odds 50/1): T41 ($20,556)
Chad Campbell (Golficity Odds 65/1) T34 ($30,646)
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Classic
Scott Brown (Golficity Odds 100/1): WD
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Classic
Camilo Villegas (Golficity Odds 100/1) T58 ($13,702)
Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)
Tourneys Played '15 -'16
0
210 Picks
Season Earnings
$0
$870,730 weekly average
Total Top 3s
20 out of 210 picks
Total Top 10s
46 out of 210 picks
Total Winners Picked
8 out of 30 events
Total Runners-Up Picked
6 out of 30 events
Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)
154 out of 210 picks
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 US Open with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram.