The Man. The Myth. The Legend. The Gronk.
The undisputed top TE in your 2017 Football Draft is Rob Gronkowski… right? The half-machine, half-man, TE in New England has traditionally been the #1 ranked Tight End in Fantasy Football, and it hasn’t been close. He has been routinely drafted in the first round, often times ahead of some elite RB’s and WR’s.
As we approach your 2017 Fantasy Football draft, you may be wondering whether or not Gronk is still the number 1 TE, and if so, when should you pull the trigger? Is Gronk worth a first round pick in your fantasy draft?
Depending on what Fantasy Football draft strategy you decide to use, reaching for someone like Gronk may actually pay off. The TE position is the definition of scarcity in Fantasy Football, and without a player who can produce on a consistent basis, week in and week out, you may be in trouble.
But with Gronk facing so many injury questions, and the rise of other TE’s such as Travis Kelce and Jordan Reed, is Gronk really someone you can trust to produce every week? After all, he only played in 8 games last year, and had back surgery this offseason.
Currently, Gronk is the only Tier 1 TE (fantasypros.com), and is projected to be drafted at the end of round 2 or the start of round 3. Although this is far different than in previous years, when he was almost a lock to go in the first round, it’s still a big risk to take.
Why Scarcity Matters When Drafting a Tight End in Fantasy Football 2017
Not sure what we mean when we talk about scarcity at a particular position? In a nutshell, this means that the position is not very deep. If you aren’t able to get an elite guy, you’ll likely be on the waiver wire searching for the next breakout player (cough, OJ Howard), or streaming TE’s each week who play against the Browns.
Scarcity can be seen with other positions in Fantasy Football, particularly with the RB1. Since many teams use a RBBC approach, there aren’t many true workhorse RB’s out there anymore. Similar to the RB1, the Tight End position is a prime example. After the first wave of elite TE’s, there is a significant drop-off. Let’s go through the 5th-12th ranked TE’s. Eifert, Walker, Bennett, Rudolph, Ebron, Graham, Henry and Doyle. Yes, Jack Doyle is the 12th ranked TE, and could be your best option if you wait too long to draft one!
2017 Fantasy Football Tight Ends Best Value
Best Tight Ends to Draft in 2017 Based on ADP and Potential Value
In terms of which TE’s offer the best value, we use a mathematical formula. For the stat-nerds out there, we use the current ADP, projected points, and projected value of drafting them at their ADP, vs an available player. It’s a long formula, but it gives a great idea of which players offer the most value at their ADP.
Without further ado, here are the top TE value picks for your 2017 Fantasy Football draft:
Top Value (in order): Jordan Reed, Martellus Bennett, OJ Howard and Jimmy Graham
Why Jordan Reed? With a current ADP is 49, Reed has potential to be the #1 or #2 TE in Fantasy if he can stay healthy. Jordan Reed is projected to put up nearly the same amount of points as Gronk, but he’s drafted 25 spots later. Reed is also projected to be drafted a few spots after Travis Kelce. Jordan Reed is one of Cousins favorite targets and could be a huge fantasy football asset in 2017. After posting career highs in 2015 with 952 yds receiving and 11 TD’s, he battled injuries in 2016, playing in only 12 games (2 of which he had only one target).
Why Martellus Bennet? With a current ADP of 96, he has potential to be a top 5 TE, playing in a pass-heavy offense, and an elite QB under center. He's an established TE in the NFL, and will be playing with one of the top QB's in the league.
Why OJ Howard? Being a rookie, it’s anybody’s guess how involved OJ Howard will be in the Bucs offense to star the year. With Cameron Brate in the mix, a breakout TE last year, Howard may not get many reps in the early part of the season. He has the physical attributes to be a true #1 TE, something that Brate is missing. You don’t draft a TE in the first round to sit him on the bench either. With players who can stretch the field in DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans, and a promising young QB under center, watch out for the starting Bucs TE to have a big year.
Why Jimmy Graham? It was only a few years ago when Jimmy Graham was argued as the only other TE that could compete with Gronkowski. And while part of that was due to the pass-heavy Saints offense, Graham is a very talented TE. Following his disappointing first year with the Seahawks, Graham had 923 receiving yards and 6 TD’s last year. Watch out for him to have another big year in an explosive Seattle offense.
2017 Fantasy Football Tight End Sleepers
Watch Out for these Breakout Candidates at the TE position
If you’re someone who is waiting on the TE position, you’ll probably be looking for a sleeper or two to draft in the later rounds. While this is not a recommended strategy, given the scarcity within the TE position, it can pay dividends depending on how everything plays out. Our TE sleepers are going to be a hit or miss, there’s no sugar coating it. If you draft one of these guys, you may have picked up the steal of the draft; but a more likely scenario is that he’ll be on the waiver wire by week 3. W
Top Sleepers (in order): Hunter Henry, David Njoku, Jared Cook, Ladarius Green, Jake Butt, Dwayne Allen
Why Hunter Henry? With an ADP of 105, he falls into the Boom or Bust zone of your draft. This is at the point when you’ve already filled your starting roster, minus Kicker and maybe Defense, so why not roll the dice with the former second round pick. Although his snaps will be limited as long as Antonio Gates is on the field, Henry is an elite Red Zone talent, and has potential to be the true #1 TE in San Diego.
Embed from Getty Images
Why David Njoku? With an ADP of 172, he’ll likely be available on your waiver wire after the draft. If you’re in a deep league, or just looking for a potential stud, Njoku may be your guy. The Miami product ran a 4.6 40-yard dash, and features all of the physical tools to be an absolute star. He’s 6’4, 246 lbs., was a 7-foot high jumper in high school, and will be a nightmare to cover down the seam. If only he had a QB that could get him the ball…
2017 Fantasy Football Tight End Bust Candidates
STOP. AVOID THESE TE’s (YOU’LL THANK ME LATER)
You never want to draft a bust in Fantasy Football. The only thing worse than drafting a bust, is reaching to draft a bust! I would use caution if you’re thinking about these guys.
My bust candidates are: Tyler Eifert, Jack Doyle, Rob Gronkowski, and Zach Ertz
Why Tyler Eifert? It would be easy to write him off as an injury candidate, but there’s more to this. Although Eifert is a beast in the Redzone, he doesn’t get a lot of targets to justify his top 10 TE ranking. If he can stay healthy, and that’s a BIG if, he’ll rack up a bunch of TD’s, but I can’t see him exceeding 600 yards receiving in 2017.
Why Jack Doyle? The guy is a top 15 TE based on ADP… This is Jack Doyle we’re talking about. Next.
Why Rob Gronkowski? – I’d draft him in the fourth or fifth round, but right now, he’s a potential first round pick in your Fantasy Football draft. I don’t trust Gronk to stay healthy, and it’s clear that the Patriots don’t need him to win a Super Bowl. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bill pull the trigger and trade Gronk by the middle of the season. I’d rather wait 3 or 4 rounds, pick up Greg Olson, and not have to work about a season ending back injury the first big hit he takes. Sorry Gronk, gotta pass on you this year.
Embed from Getty Images
Final 2017 Fantasy Football TE Rankings:
20. Evan Engram
19. Zach Miller
18. Julius Thomas
17. Jason Witten
16. Coby Fleener
15. David Nojku
14. C.J. Fiedorowicz
13. OJ Howard
12. Tyler Eifert
11. Eric Ebron
10. Kyle Rudolph
9. Zach Ertz
8. Martellus Bennett
7. Hunter Henry
6. Delaine Walker
5. Rob Gronkowski
4. Jimmy Graham
3. Greg Olson
2. Travis Kelce
1. Jordan Reed
Embed from Getty Images