Saturday, July 19, 2025

Friday Night Lights

We had a brief interruption of weather monotony yesterday evening in northern Utah with thunderstorms in portions of northern Utah including Utah County, southern and eastern Salt Lake County, Wasatch County, Summit County as illustrated by the radar-estimated precipitation for the 6-hour period ending 0600 UTC 19 July (0000 MDT Saturday).  

Source: https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

Northern Salt Lake County, including my place, was largely skunked other than some sprinkles or light showers and gusty winds.  We did get a bit of a light show from the lightning, as well as some weakly developed mammatus


and a primary and secondary rainbow. 


In other news, I am enjoying a temporary office-free period as my boxes were moved from the INSCC building to the new Applied Science building late last week, but I still don't have access to the latter.  If memory serves correct, I spent 27 of my 30 years at the U in 488 INSCC.  I leave behind lots of great memories there, including our old computer teaching lab, interactions with scores of graduate students, weather research and modeling for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games, many field campaigns, and a lot of hooting and hollering during exciting weather.  


Below is the oldest digital photo I could find from the early INSCC days (technically 5 years after moving in). 


Oh to be young again, even with the slow computers and small screens!

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

New Digs for Atmospheric Sciences (and Physics and Astronomy) at the U!

Today was the ribbon cutting for the new L.S. Skaggs Applied Science Building at the University of Utah.  Look closely for the oversized red scissors.


The building is a game changer for Atmospheric Sciences and Physics and Astronomy at the University of Utah.  Both departments have been in old, decaying buildings for many years (with a few exceptions such as myself who was in a newer building but isolated from most of my colleagues).  We now have a gorgeous, state-of-the-art facility!

A quick tour.

The auditorium.  Looking forward to teaching or giving seminars here.  


The (still-to-be-finished) computer lab where we will be teaching weather analysis and forecasting classes.  


Meeting rooms remain important and I'm hoping to get squatting rights for occasional meetings in this one so I can stare at the views instead of the monitor. 


The future home of Professor Powder.  Sadly, I will no longer be able to see the central Wasatch (I think Physics and Astronomy faculty have dibs on that side of the building), but it's the north side of the building, so it has the right aspect to avoid direct sun.    


The 3rd floor has a blockbuster view to the west.  I can't wait to watch cold fronts, outflow boundaries, and lake-effect storms from here.  The excitement will be palpable!  The physicists have no idea what they are in for.  


The roof is going to be great for astronomy and meteorology, with the left side dedicated to weather instrumentation (not installed yet).  


You can learn more at the Applied Science Project web page or watch this YouTube Video.

Support for the building comes from the State of Utah and many donors, including Department of Atmospheric Sciences faculty, alumni, and friends.  I don't have a complete list and don't want to leave anyone out, so for now I'll just say thank you so much from a grateful department.  If you were unable to make the ribbon cutting today, I'll be happy to give a tour in the future.  Give it a few weeks so that we have more instruments on the roof.   

My current office is completely packed and the movers are coming tomorrow.  It's still a bit unclear when I'll be in the new location, but hopefully sometime next week.  

Monday, July 14, 2025

Status of the Great Salt Lake

The current elevation of the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor on the south shore is 4192.4 feet.  Although this is above the record minimum from 2022, it is still well below the long-term average of 4200 feet and the so-called minimum health level of 4198 feet.  It has now been about 13 years since we were last at that minimum healthy level. 

Source: USGS

A look over the past year shows a net decline in elevation on this date of nearly 2 feet.  Lake levels will decrease further in the coming months as they typically decline through the summer and fall.  Last year we dropped about 2 feet after this date. 

Lake elevations over the past year at Saltair. Source: USGS

The current elevation at Saline in the north arm is 4191.9 feet, which is very close to where it was last year. 

Lake elevations over the past year at Saline. Source: USGS

So it's a "push" in the north arm and a net loss in the south arm, which means a net decline for the entire lake system, 

Yesterday's crystal-clear skies provided a great view from NASA's MODIS instrument.  There's still a bit of water in Bear River Bay and a sliver in Farmington Bay, but for the most part, those bays are desiccated of water coverage.  

Source: NASA

Keep rooting for big snow years.  We need a few of them. 

Friday, July 11, 2025

Very July-Like Pattern

It's pretty slow in the weather department these days.  As is often the case in July, the storm track is well to the north and the GFS forecast for the next 10 days (below) shows just some gasps monsoon moisture to give us some afternoon clouds and maybe some showers or t-storms from time to time.  


Perhaps one of those monsoon surgest can be a bit more potent.  There's one near the end of the forecast period that runs through western Colorado and Eastern Utah.  Maybe it will pay a visit.  That said, this looks about as July-like as July gets. 

A colleague commented that it seems like it has been pretty dry.  Since mid May , there have been four days with measurable rain at the Salt Lake Airport: May 15 (0.21"), May 18 (0.73"), June 22 (0.16"), and July 4 (0.16").  If we were to make it to July 20 without any more precipitation, the 2-month period from May 20 to July 20 would be the 8th driest on record (the lowest such period for precip is 0.05" in 1889).  We'll see though if that pans out though.  

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Thinking Slow Instead of Posting Fast

A tip of the hat for the paraphrasing of post's title to Daniel Kahneman's excellent book, "Thinking Fast and Slow." 

Early in the morning on July 4, a flash flood hit the Guadalupe River in Kern County, Texas.  As I write this in the evening on July 9, media reports suggest there are 120 confirmed deaths and still more than 150 people missing.  

This is a terrible tragedy that given modern weather monitoring and forecasting capabilities shouldn't happen.  The question is why did it happen?

In our modern, social-media-driven, hyper-politicalized times, you can find just about anything to support your preconceived notions as to why this happened.  There have been reports blaming climate change, National Weather Service personnel cuts, National Weather Service forecasts, the retirement of a National Weather Service Warning Coordination meteorologist due to the actions of Doge, lax county emergency management officials, unapproved alarm systems, etc.  

This is a situation though that needs slower thinking and less fast posting.

What is needed is a careful, apolitical assessment of everything from the long-term education and preparation of communities to the issuing, content, and delivery of weather watches and warnings.  

This is a tragedy that shouldn't have happened.  For it to never happen again, we need to rise to the occasions, ask hard questions, understand where our scientific, political, and communications systems failed, and move forward.  This will take leadership and expertise, not social media posts, sloppy news coverage, or CYA politics.  

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Escape to Marine Air

I've heard there have been a few storms in northern Utah, but we escaped on the 1st of the month to the blissfully cool and moist air of Ketchikan, Alaska.  I haven't seen a temperature above 64°F since arriving and the sky has mostly been cloud covered.  You know, proper hiking weather.  


Few things top the 4th of July in Ketchikan.  You haven't really lived until you've experienced the parade here.

And the flying of the flag by heli to open the festivities remains one of my favorite traditions.


I'm not a good fisherman, but fortunately my wife's cousin is.  He led us to victory this morning.   


It's raining now.  No complaints.