Indian Stock Market Rallies for Second Straight Session

 The Indian stock market extended its gains for the second consecutive session on Monday, May 26, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 closing significantly higher.

• Sensex opened at 81,928.95 (previous close: 81,721.08) and surged over 771 points to hit an intraday high of 82,492.24, before settling 455 points higher, or 0.56%, at 82,176.45.

• Nifty 50 opened at 24,919.35 (previous close: 24,853.15), reached an intraday high of 25,079.20, and closed up 148 points, or 0.60%, at 25,001.15, reclaiming the psychological 25,000 mark.

Broader market indices also participated in the rally:

• BSE Midcap index rose 0.56%

• BSE Smallcap index gained 0.48%

The overall market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies increased by approximately ₹3 lakh crore, rising from nearly ₹442 lakh crore in the previous session to close to ₹445 lakh crore, boosting investor wealth substantially.

NIFTY OUTLOOK OF 23 MAY 2025

📈 Market Recap – May 23

• Sensex: Up 769 points (+0.95%) to close at 81,721

• Nifty 50: Up 243 points (+1.00%) to settle at 24,853

Despite the strong Friday rally, both indices logged weekly losses of over 0.65%, highlighting the market's ongoing volatility.

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🔍 Key Drivers of Friday's Rebound

1. Sectoral Support: Gains were led by Technology and FMCG stocks.

2. Corporate Earnings Optimism: Positive earnings results lifted sentiment.

3. Global Cues:

   • US Treasury yields softened, improving global risk appetite.

   • Short-covering and value-buying drove intra-day momentum.

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🌍 Global & Domestic Influences

• Global Concerns: US-India trade dynamics, US fiscal uncertainties, and currency market swings have kept volatility elevated.

• Domestic Positives:

  • Stable corporate earnings outlook

  • Hopes for interest rate cuts

  • Forecast of a normal monsoon

  • Long-term economic tailwinds

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🔮 Outlook

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, citing:

• Strong domestic fundamentals

• Potential for continued growth

• However, global triggers could still introduce short-term fluctuations.

📉 Market Overview – May 20, 2025

 Indian equity benchmarks extended their losing streak to a third straight session, dragged down by:

• Weak global cues

• Continued FII selling

• Profit booking at resistance levels

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📊 Nifty 50 Performance

• Opened: Firm, briefly reclaimed 25,000

• Faced resistance: Near 25,000 level

• Broke key support: Around 24,850

• Closed: 24,683.90 (▼261.55 pts / -1.05%)

🔍 Technical Pattern:

• Formed a large bearish candle with a lower high–lower low

• Indicates a corrective phase now lasting three sessions

📉 Short-term Outlook:

• Expected range-bound movement: 24,400–25,200

• Crucial support: 24,350–24,400 (aligns with:

  • Prior week’s low

  • 20-day EMA

  • 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 23,935–25,116 rally)

• Indicators (e.g., Stochastic Oscillator) suggest overbought conditions are easing

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🏦 Bank Nifty Snapshot

• Formed a bear candle indicating profit booking

• Remains inside a falling channel for 19 sessions

• Current range: 53,500–56,000 (4-week consolidation)

• Last rally (49,157–56,098) saw only 38.2% retracement, implying underlying strength

🔍 Outlook:

• Bias remains constructive within range

• Buy-on-dips strategy preferred near key support:

  • 53,000–53,500 (confluence of retracement & 50-day EMA)

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🔻 Broader Market & Sectoral View

• Nifty Midcap 100: ▼1.3%

• Nifty Smallcap 100: ▼0.8%

• Sectoral losers (1–2% drop):

  • Auto

  • Bank

  • Pharma

  • FMCG

Reflects broad-based risk-off sentiment.

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🧭 Key Takeaways:

• Index has entered a technical pullback phase

• Short-term consolidation likely before next directional move

• Risk-off tone visible across sectors and broader indices

• Traders should monitor key supports for reversal signals

📉 Market Overview Of 16 May 2025

• Sensex closed down 200.15 points (-0.24%) at 82,330.59

• Nifty50 fell 42.30 points (-0.17%) to 25,019.80, holding just above the 25,000 mark

• Despite the daily decline, for the week, Sensex gained 3.6%, Nifty rose 4.2%

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📊 Broader Market & Sector Performance

• Midcap Index: ▲ 0.8%

• Smallcap Index: ▲ 1%

• Sector gainers:

  • Media, Power, PSU, Realty, Capital Goods: ▲ 1–1.7%

• Sector loser:

  • IT Index: ▼ ~1%

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📈 Top Nifty Gainers

• Bharat Electronics

• Bajaj Auto

• Adani Enterprises

• Tata Consumer

• Eternal

📉 Top Nifty Losers

• Bharti Airtel

• JSW Steel

• Infosys

• SBI

• HCL Technologies

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🛠️ Stock-Specific Highlights

• JSW Infrastructure & Bharti Airtel: ▼ over 2% on block deals

• RVNL: ▲ 9% on Central Railway order win

• Crompton Greaves Consumer: ▲ 7% on 22% jump in Q4 profit

• JSW Energy: ▲ 3% after better-than-expected Q4 results

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🔝 Stocks at 52-Week Highs (sample from nearly 80)

• Mazagon Dock, Medplus Health, Bajaj Holdings

• Bharat Electronics, Solar Industries, ICICI Bank

• Redington, Max Financial, Anupam Rasayan, etc.

NIFTY OUTLOOK OF 15 MAY 2025

 📈 Market Highlights

• Sensex surged 1,387.58 points to close at 82,718.14

• Nifty jumped 442.45 points, reclaiming the 25,000 mark at 25,109.35

• Rebound followed a weak opening; early trade saw a fall of over 500 points

• Gains led by metal, auto, IT, and realty stocks

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🔑 Top Factors Driving the Rally

1. India-US Trade Deal Hopes

   • US President Donald Trump revealed that India proposed a “no tariffs” trade deal.

   • Market welcomed the possibility of eased trade tensions and improved US-India economic ties.

   • However, analysts caution that the rally’s sustainability depends on the final deal's specifics.

2. Drop in Crude Oil Prices

   • Crude futures fell by Rs 137 to Rs 5,264 per barrel, reducing inflation concerns.

   • Lower oil prices benefit India’s trade balance and corporate profit margins.

3. Rate Cut Expectations

   • Retail inflation dropped to 3.16% in April, the lowest in a year.

   • Weak inflation has boosted expectations of a rate cut by the RBI in the upcoming policy review.

   • Led to a rally in rate-sensitive sectors like realty and metals.

4. Strong FII Inflows

   • Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers with Rs 931.80 crore worth of purchases.

   • Continued FII interest buoyed overall market sentiment.

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📊 Top Nifty Gainers

• Hero MotoCorp, JSW Steel, Tata Motors, Shriram Finance, HCL Technologies

• These stocks rose up to 6% during the session.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW

 Indian benchmark indices closed higher, rebounding from their steepest single-day drop in a month. The recovery was fueled by value buying and cooler-than-expected inflation data from both India and the U.S., which lifted hopes of additional interest rate cuts.

Key Highlights:

Sensex: ▲ 182.34 points  to 81,330.56

Nifty 50: ▲ 88.55 points to 24,666.90

Investor Wealth: Market capitalization of BSE-listed firms rose by nearly ₹4 lakh crore, from ₹431.10 lakh crore to ₹434.97 lakh crore
Market Drivers:
India Inflation (April): Eased to 3.16%, a six-year low, increasing the likelihood of an RBI rate cut in June.
U.S. Inflation: Came in cooler than expected, easing fears of stagflation and sparking a rally on Wall Street.
Sectoral Performance:
Top Gainers:
Capital Goods: +985 pts
Metals: +735 pts
IT: +501 pts
Laggards:
Banking: BSE Bankex down 210 pts to 62,371

Markets Slide After Record Rally: Sensex Sheds 1,282 Points on Profit-Taking in IT, FMCG Stocks

Sensex tumbled 1,282 points (1.55%) to close at 81,148.22; it had fallen as much as 1,386 points intraday.Nifty dropped 346.35 points (1.39%) to 24,578.35.
The decline followed Monday's record rally (nearly 4% gain) amid profit-taking, particularly in IT, FMCG, and auto sectors.
Top losers: Infosys (–3.54%), Power Grid, HCL Tech, TCS, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, HDFC Bank.
Top gainers: Sun Pharma, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, SBI, Tech Mahindra.
Brent crude rose 0.32% to $65.17/barrel.
FIIs net bought equities worth ₹1,246.48 crore on Monday.
Monday’s rally was driven by geopolitical and trade optimism: India-Pakistan ceasefire understanding and US-China tariff deal.

India-Pakistan Tensions Rattle Markets: Sensex Crashes 800 Points, Nifty Breaches Key Support

 The Indian stock market experienced heavy selling pressure on Friday, driven by multiple geopolitical and economic factors, with the India-Pakistan conflict escalation emerging as the most dominant trigger. Here’s a structured summary and analysis of the situation:

Key Market Highlights (May 9, 2025):

• Sensex: Crashed over 800 points, opened at 78,968, rebounded to around 79,925.

• Nifty 50: Opened at 23,935, tested 24,000 levels, but remains below 200-DEMA (24,050) — a critical technical support level.

• Bank Nifty: Opened lower at 53,595, intraday low of 53,525.50.

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Top 5 Reasons for Market Decline:

1. India-Pakistan War Buzz:

   • Recent drone strikes in Pakistan and Operation Sindoor by India have heightened fears of a prolonged conflict.

   • While markets initially priced in a limited response (like a surgical strike), the sustained escalation is causing risk-off sentiment.

   • Historical precedent shows markets typically correct 5–10% during geopolitical tensions but tend to recover swiftly.

2. Stalled India-US Trade Talks:

   • Despite optimistic statements, no tangible breakthroughs have emerged.

   • Ongoing tariff uncertainties are deterring foreign and domestic investment in equities.

3. Crude Oil Volatility:

   • Prices fell from $75 to $60 per barrel, sparking value buying in crude.

   • Investors are reallocating funds from equities to commodities amid global uncertainty.

4. Strengthening US Dollar:

   • The US Dollar Index rebounded above 100, making emerging market assets (like Indian equities) less attractive.

   • A stronger dollar typically triggers capital outflows from emerging markets.

5. Weak Global Market Sentiment:

   • Asian indices (Shanghai, Hang Seng) are trading in the red.

   • Global investors are broadly reducing exposure to risk assets, adding to Dalal Street's woes.

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Defence Sector Boost:

• Positive news from Indian defence capabilities, notably the Akash missile system, shows India’s readiness and technological confidence.

• This could lead to positive sentiment in defence and PSU stocks, albeit with limited impact in the short term amid broader market stress.

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Outlook:

• Short-term: Expect continued volatility with potential for a 5–10% correction, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate further.

• Medium-term: If historical trends hold, recovery could be swift once tensions de-escalate or clarity emerges on trade/foreign policy fronts.

• Watchlist: Monitor India-Pakistan developments, crude oil trends, US Fed commentary, and the US dollar index for cues.

📉 Market Closes Lower Amid Geopolitical & Global Concerns | May 8 Update

Indian equity indices ended a volatile session on a weak note as rising geopolitical tensions and cautious global signals weighed on investor sentiment.

🔻 Sensex closed at 80,334.81, down 411.97 pts (0.51%)
🔻 Nifty closed at 24,273.80, down 140.60 pts (0.58%)

📌 Key Drivers:

• Escalating tensions between India & Pakistan, following Indian forces' strike on Lahore's air defence system, led to profit booking in the final hour.

• The US Fed’s cautious stance on inflation and labor market risks added to the bearish tone.

• Early gains were erased quickly, with the market turning rangebound before a sharp sell-off in the last hour.

• Late buying at lower levels helped cap some losses.

🌍 Despite domestic pressures, global markets remain stable, supported by optimism over a potential US-UK trade deal and early signs of progress in US-China trade talks.

📊 Expect volatility to ease as geopolitical tensions de-escalate.

Geopolitical Tensions Fail to Derail Markets; Nifty Ends Flat-to-Positive

 Markets shrugged off geopolitical concerns linked to India's military response, ending slightly higher after a volatile session.

• Sensex: +106 points

• Nifty: +34.45 points to 24,414.40 (+0.14%)

📈 Gainers on Nifty

• Tata Motors

• Bajaj Finance

• Jio Financial

• Shriram Finance

• Eternal

📉 Losers on Nifty

• Asian Paints

• Sun Pharma

• Bajaj Auto

• Grasim Industries

• Reliance Industries

🔍 Sector Performance

• Gainers: Auto, Media, Realty, Consumer Durables (↑ ~1%)

• Losers: Pharma, FMCG

• Midcap Index: +1.3%

• Smallcap Index: +1%

📊 Technical View

• Nifty Range: Expected between 24,100–24,600

• Watch for a breakdown below 24,100 which may lead to 23,800

• Traders advised caution; avoid aggressive positions

🌍 Outlook

• Domestic volatility likely to persist

• Global cues & FII inflows offering support

• Market focus now on US Fed’s FOMC meeting outcome

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 07 MAY 2025

 Markets End Lower Amid Selling Pressure and Cautious Sentiment

Domestic equities closed marginally lower today, weighed down by weakness in banking and other key sectors. After a flat opening, indices came under sustained selling pressure, particularly in PSU Banks, Realty, and Energy, leading to a 0.33% decline in the Nifty, which settled at 24,379.60. The Sensex dropped by 156 points, while the broader markets underperformed, falling over 2%.

A sharp 5% slide in the PSU Bank Index marked the day’s steepest sectoral loss, as profit booking dominated. Except for auto, most sectors closed in the red.

Technical indicators point to continued weakness, with a bearish candle on daily charts and a lower top formation on intraday charts. The Nifty faces resistance near 24,500, and unless it decisively breaches this level, the sentiment is likely to remain subdued. Key support levels lie at 24,250 and 24,175, with potential downside extending to 24,000 if selling persists.

India VIX remains elevated, reflecting rising uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions and ahead of the US Fed’s interest rate decision. Given the current non-directional market structure, traders are advised to adopt a levels-based, stock-specific approach with a focus on risk management.

Equity benchmarks closed marginally lower on Monday amid broad-based selling and weak global cues. The Nifty ended 82 points lower at 24,379.60 (-0.33%), while the Sensex slipped 156 points, dragged primarily by weakness in banking, realty, and energy stocks.

Sectoral Performance:
Barring auto, all major sectoral indices ended in the red. The PSU Bank index plunged 5%, marking the steepest sectoral decline, followed by a 3% drop in Realty. Other sectors like pharma, consumer durables, media, oil & gas, and power also declined between 1-2%.

Broader Markets:
Selling pressure was more pronounced in the broader markets, with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices falling 2% each, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors.

Key Losers on the Nifty:

• Adani Enterprises

• Eternal

• Jio Financial

• Trent

• HDFC Life

Top Gainers:

• Hero MotoCorp

• Tata Steel

• Bharti Airtel

• M&M

• HUL

Technical View:
The formation of a bearish candle on the daily chart and a lower top on intraday charts signal a continuation of weakness. Resistance is seen around 24,500, and unless breached, the trend may remain under pressure. On the downside, the index may retest 24,250, with a further drop toward 24,175 or even 24,000 if weakness persists.

Market Outlook:
With elevated India VIX levels and persistent geopolitical tensions, sentiment remains fragile. All eyes are now on the US Fed interest rate decision due Wednesday. Traders are advised to remain cautious and adopt a stock-specific, levels-based strategy with a strong focus on managing overnight risk.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 06 MAY 2025

 Indian equity markets ended on a strong note today, with broad-based buying lifting benchmark indices to new highs. The Sensex rose 294.85 points (0.37%) to close at 80,796.84, while the Nifty 50 gained 114.45 points (0.47%) to settle at 24,461.15, marking the longest winning streak of 2025 so far.

Key Highlights:

• Broad Sector Gains: Auto, FMCG, Oil & Gas, and Energy sectors led the rally.

• Banking Under Pressure: Banking stocks underperformed, with SBI slipping 1.25% after reporting a 10% drop in Q4 net profit.

• Top Gainer: Adani Ports surged 6.31%, topping the Nifty gainers' list.

• Global Boost: Easing global trade tensions and optimism over a potential India-U.S. trade deal supported sentiment.
  

  Indices Performance:

  • Sensex: ▲ 294.85 points (+0.37%) at 80,796.84

  • Nifty 50: ▲ 114.45 points (+0.47%) at 24,461.15

  • Nifty Bank: ▼ 195.85 points (-0.36%) at 54,919.50

  Market Highlights:

  • Benchmark indices have gained in 12 of the last 16 sessions, rising over 10%.

  • FIIs have net bought over ₹38,300 crore in the last 11 sessions (NSDL data).

  • Brent crude has dipped below $60/barrel, easing pressure on the current account.

  • Encouraging economic data and a weak dollar continue to support foreign investor interest.

  Sectoral Snapshot:

  • Top Gaining Sector: Nifty Auto ▲ 1.85%

  • Top Losing Sector: Nifty Bank ▼ 0.36%

  • Top Gainer: Adani Enterprises ▲ 7.03%

  • Top Loser: Kotak Mahindra ▼ 4.59%

  Market Outlook:

  • The broader market has rebounded, recouping over 50% of previous losses.

  • Positive cues: Record GST collections, improving macro indicators, lower crude prices.

  • Caution persists due to border tensions and muted Q4 results.

  • Nifty is facing resistance near 24,500. A breakout could target 24,630, while 24,360 acts as support.

  Derivatives Insights:

  • Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.82 – signals a cautious undertone.

  • Key OI Levels:

    • Call side: 24,500 & 26,000

    • Put side: 24,400 & 24,000

  • Stocks with fresh OI build-up: ATGL, Indian Bank, Kotak Bank, SBI, DMART

  Outlook:
  Investors remain cautiously optimistic ahead of key corporate earnings, geopolitical updates, and the U.S. Fed’s upcoming policy decisions.

Market Wrap Of 2 May 2025

 Domestic equity benchmarks opened on a strong note, buoyed by favorable global cues, but ended the session flat amid profit booking. The Nifty 50 closed marginally higher by 12.50 points at 24,346.70, while the Sensex gained 259.75 points to end at 80,501.99.

• Technical View:

  • Nifty: Formed a spinning top on the daily chart, indicating indecision at higher levels. A strong green candle on the weekly chart, however, suggests underlying strength.

    • Resistance: 24,590

    • Support: 24,050 (200-Day SMA)

    • A breakout above 24,590 may take it to 24,800–24,850.

  • Bank Nifty: Ended flat at 55,115.

    • Formed a doji on the daily and a shooting star on the weekly chart – signs of uncertainty.

    • Resistance: 56,000

    • Support: 54,450

    • A fall below 54,450 could invite fresh selling; otherwise, range-bound between 54,450–56,000.

• Broader Market:

  • BSE Midcap: -0.4%

  • Smallcap: Flat

  • Advance/Decline: 1672/2122 (indicating broad-based weakness)

• Sectoral Performance:

  • Gainers: Media, Energy, IT, Oil & Gas (+0.3% to +0.7%)

  • Losers: Power, Metal, Telecom, Pharma, Realty, Consumer Durables (-0.5% to -2%)

• Top Nifty Gainers: Adani Ports, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Reliance Industries, SBI

• Top Nifty Losers: JSW Steel, Eicher Motors, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, HDFC Life

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Volatility Persists: Indian Markets Trade Sideways on April 30

 Indian equity benchmarks ended marginally lower in a highly volatile session on April 30, as geopolitical tensions along the India-Pakistan border and caution ahead of key economic events weighed on investor sentiment. The Sensex dipped 46.14 points, or 0.06%, to close at 80,242.24, while the Nifty slipped 1.75 points, or 0.01%, ending the session at 24,334.20.

Geopolitical Overhang Dampens Sentiment

Markets remained subdued for yet another session as tensions along the border continued to create an overhang. Investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the holiday and upcoming U.S. GDP data. The cautious tone was evident in the market breadth, with 2,828 stocks declining against just 938 advancing on the BSE.

Sectoral Snapshot: Realty, Telecom Gain; PSU Banks, Media Decline

Sectoral performance was mixed:

• Gainers: Realty (+2%), Telecom (+1%), and Pharma sectors showed strength.

• Losers: PSU Banks and Media saw sharp declines of over 2%, while IT, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables, and Banking sectors shed around 0.5% each.

Stock Movers

On the Nifty:

• Top Gainers: Maruti Suzuki, HDFC Life, Bharti Airtel, SBI Life Insurance, Power Grid Corporation.

• Top Losers: Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Trent, Tata Motors, SBI.

Broader indices underperformed, with the BSE Midcap index falling 0.7% and the BSE Smallcap index tumbling 1.7%.

Technical Outlook: Consolidation Continues

The Nifty continued its consolidation phase and traded within a tight range throughout the day. Despite this, the index managed to hold above its 20-day EMA, keeping the bullish structure intact. The RSI remains above 50 and shows a bullish crossover, signaling sustained underlying strength.

• Resistance: 24,450 (Nifty) / 80,500 (Sensex) — This level has seen repeated rejection and now forms a crucial barrier.

• Support: 24,200, followed by 24,000 and 23,900 on the downside. For the Sensex, support lies around 79,300–79,000.

A break above 24,450/80,500 could open the door for an upward move toward 24,600–24,700 (Nifty) and 81,000–81,300 (Sensex). Conversely, sustained trading below these levels may invite further downside.

Outlook: Volatility Ahead

Looking ahead, market sentiment will likely be dictated by:

• Corporate Earnings Season — Investors will watch Q4 results closely.

• Global Cues — Especially from the U.S., where GDP data and Fed commentary may sway global equities.

• Geopolitical Developments — Any escalation in border tensions may amplify risk aversion.

Despite short-term volatility, the long-term market outlook remains constructive, buoyed by FII inflows, potential US-India trade progress, and resilience in select domestic sectors. Any dips or consolidations may provide buying opportunities for long-term investors, especially in fundamentally strong stocks.

📊 Indian Stock Market Summary – April 29, 2025

Indian equity indices ended flat on April 29 amid a volatile and range-bound trading session, reflecting investor caution and lack of fresh domestic or global triggers.

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🔹 Headline Indices Performance

• Sensex closed up 70.01 points (0.09%) at 80,288.38

• Nifty 50 closed up 7.45 points (0.03%) at 24,335.95

After an initial uptick, both indices traded in a narrow range, failing to sustain early gains due to intraday profit booking and consolidation across sectors.

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🔹 Technical Overview

• A small red candle with minor upper shadow formed on the daily Nifty chart, signaling a failed breakout near the 24,350–24,400 resistance zone.

• Key Support: 24,150 (Nifty) / 80,000 (Sensex)

• Key Resistance: 24,450 (Nifty) / 80,500 (Sensex)

• A decisive breakout above 24,450 could lead to an upmove toward 24,600–24,850.

• Structure remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows; consolidation seen as healthy.

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🔹 Sectoral Performance

Sector	Movement
Defense	▲ +5%
Capital Goods	▲ +1%
Consumer Durables	▲ +0.5%
IT	▲ +0.5%
Oil & Gas	▲ +0.5%
Pharma	▼ -1%
Metal	▼ -0.5%
Power	▼ -0.5%
Telecom	▼ -0.5%

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🔹 Broader Market Action

• BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices: Ended flat

• Advances/Declines: 1,766 stocks advanced, 2,012 declined, and 125 remained unchanged

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🔹 Top Nifty Gainers

• Bharat Electronics

• Tech Mahindra

• Reliance Industries

• Eicher Motors

• Trent

🔹 Top Nifty Losers

• Sun Pharma

• ONGC

• Coal India

• UltraTech Cement

• Dr. Reddy’s Labs

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🔹 Rupee & Global Sentiment

• The Indian Rupee erased early gains amid geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar index.

• USDINR outlook:

  • Support: 84.94

  • Resistance: 85.70

• Market cautious due to mixed Q4 earnings, border tensions, and holiday-shortened week.

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🔹 Market Outlook

The index remains in a consolidation phase with a positive bias, aided by sectoral rotation and FII inflows. A breakout above resistance levels could resume the rally. Traders are advised to maintain a "buy on dips" strategy, with a focus on stocks showing relative strength.

Markets End Lower for Second Straight Session Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

 Indian equity markets closed lower for the second consecutive session on April 25, with both benchmark indices under pressure due to heightened geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. The Nifty ended near the 24,000 mark, while the Sensex shed nearly 600 points.

At the close, the Sensex was down 588.90 points or 0.74% at 79,212.53, and the Nifty fell 207.35 points or 0.86% to settle at 24,039.35. Markets opened with a brief uptick, but a sharp decline followed in the first half of the session. A late rebound in select heavyweight stocks helped pare some losses, although broader sentiment remained weak.

The new derivatives series began on a cautious note, with traders booking profits after a sharp recent rally. The geopolitical uncertainty — particularly following the terror attack in Pahalgam and India's subsequent suspension of the Indus Water Treaty — triggered broad-based selling, especially ahead of the weekend. Retaliatory firing along the Line of Control further spooked investors, pushing them into a risk-off mode.

Across sectors, most indices ended in the red. Realty, pharma, energy, media, metals, PSU banks, telecom, power, and oil & gas stocks dropped 2–3%. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices were hit harder, each shedding 2.5%, reflecting concerns over stretched valuations. Out of total traded stocks, only 682 advanced, while 3,138 declined, and 115 remained unchanged.

The volatility index surged 6%, underlining rising investor fear. Despite the overall negative sentiment, IT stocks offered some support, with Infosys, TCS, Tech Mahindra, and IndusInd Bank among the top gainers. On the flip side, Axis Bank, Adani Enterprises, Shriram Finance, Adani Ports, and Trent were the biggest laggards on the Nifty.

Technically, the Nifty slipped after a consolidation phase on the daily chart, breaching its 200-day moving average — a signal that bearish momentum may be resuming. Key support levels lie at 23,800 and 23,515. Holding above 23,800 is crucial to maintain a positive outlook in the near term. Otherwise, further selling pressure could emerge.

Given the prevailing geopolitical concerns and stretched valuations in certain pockets, market participants are advised to maintain a cautious stance and consider a hedged approach to manage risk.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 25 APRIL 2025

Market Overview

Indian equity indices ended on a subdued note on April 24, with benchmark indices closing lower following a day of range-bound activity. The Nifty 50 closed at 24,246, down 82.25 points or 0.34%, while the Sensex declined by 315 points, settling at 79,801.

This decline followed a strong rally in the previous session when both indices had touched multi-month highs. Investor sentiment turned cautious amid geopolitical tensions, weak Q4 earnings in key FMCG counters, and global uncertainties.

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Key Highlights

• Sensex: 79,801.43 (▼ 315.06 points | -0.39%)

• Nifty 50: 24,246.70 (▼ 82.25 points | -0.34%)

• Advance/Decline Ratio: 1869 stocks advanced, 1921 declined, and 144 remained unchanged

• Market Range (Intraday): Nifty traded within 24,120 – 24,360

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Technical Analysis

• An inside body candle was formed on the daily charts, reflecting market indecisiveness.

• The market remains in a consolidation phase, with 24,350/80,100 as a key resistance zone.

• A breakout above 24,350 could push the Nifty towards 24,450–24,500, while a fall below 24,200 may trigger a correction towards 24,100–24,000.

• Short-term trend: Bullish bias intact, but awaiting confirmation via breakout.

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Sectoral Performance

Sector	Movement
Pharma	▲ +1.0%
Metals	▲ Moderate gain
FMCG	▼ -1.0%
Realty	▼ -1.0%
Banking/Finance	▶ Consolidation phase
PSEs, Metals, Pharma	Likely to attract interest

• Pharma and Metals emerged as top performers.

• FMCG and Realty sectors faced notable selling pressure, impacted by weak Q4 earnings and profit booking.

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Stock Watch

• Top Gainers (Nifty):

  • IndusInd Bank

  • UltraTech Cement

  • Grasim Industries

  • Tata Motors

  • Dr Reddy's Labs

• Top Losers (Nifty):

  • HUL

  • Bharti Airtel

  • Eicher Motors

  • ICICI Bank

  • Eternal

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Broader Market Performance

• BSE Midcap & Smallcap: Ended flat but outperformed the benchmark indices, showing resilience.

• Consolidation and stock-specific movement were dominant themes in these segments.

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Global & Geopolitical Impact

• Geopolitical concerns following India’s firm stance on the Pahalgam terror attack affected investor mood.

• Mixed global cues and uncertainty around US-China trade talks added to market unease.

• Market participants scaled back expectations for quick resolution of global trade disputes.

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Outlook & Strategy

• The current market phase is non-directional and range-bound.

• Level-based trading is recommended for short-term traders.

• Focus on stock selection, especially in pharma, PSEs, and metals, for upcoming opportunities.

• Use market dips as buying opportunities in fundamentally strong counters.