Not proofread: Created page with " through the census and the number of deaths at each age observed for as many years, generally from IO to 2o, as suffice to furnish a trustworthy average. The population thus..."
New page
<noinclude><pagequality level="1" user="Slowking4" /><div class="pagetext">{{rh|{{x-larger|n}}|{{x-larger|{{uc|POPULATION}}}}|{{x-larger|99}}}}<!-- replace "Foo" and "Bar" with the header from the page, delete and input page numbers as appropriate -->
</noinclude>
through the census and the number of deaths at each age
observed for as many years, generally from IO to 2o, as suffice
to furnish a trustworthy average. The population thus dealt
with is supposed to be stationary, that is, the loss by death at
each age is at once made good by the addition of an equal
number of the same age, whilst the survivors pass on to the
age above. Of the many calculations set forth in these valuable
tables there is only room here to refer to the “ after lifetime "
for such countries as it is available, which is quoted in the last
column of Table VII. It shows the average number of years
which persons of a given age, or, as here, of all ages, will live,
on the assumption that they are subject to the calculated
probabilities of survival. It is sometimes known as the
“ expectation of life, ” a term, however, which involves a
mathematical hypothesis now discarded.
The relation between the birth and the death rates has been
the subject of much analysis and controversy. Observation has
demonstrated that the two rates are generally found to move
along parallel lines. A high birth-rate is accompanied by high
mortality; conversely, when one is low, so is the other. A birthrate
continuously in excess of the death-rate tends to lower the
latter through the supply it affords of people annually reaching
the more healthy ages. If the supply be diminished, the narrower
field open to the risks of infancy has the immediate effect of
further decreasing the mortality. In course of time, however,
that this factor is by no means a trustworthy guide in
19th century. In England, the decrease in "natality ” is in
itself enough to account for the decline in the death-rate, apart
from any considerations of improved hygiene. In France, on
the contrary, the low natality having been so long continued,
has raised the death-rate, by reason of the balance of proportion
having been shifted by it from youth and the prime of life
to old age. It may be inferred from the above that a high birthrate
does not imply a high rate of increase of population, any
more than does a decreasing mortality, but the two rates must
be considered in their relations to each other. The death-rate,
however, is often taken by itself as the measure of the relatively
favourable conditions or otherwise of the different countries;
but it indicates at best the maintaining power of the community,
whereas the increasing power, as manifested in the birth-rate.
has also to be taken into account. Here, again, it is not suihcient
to rely upon the mere rate of natural growth, or' the difference
between the two rates, since this may be the same in a community
where both' the rates are very high as in one where they are
relatively low, a distinction of considerable importance. It has
been suggested by Dr Rubin of Copenhagen, that if the death
rate (d) belsquared and divided by the birth-rate (b), due influence
is allowed to each rate respectively, as well as to the difference
in the height of the rates in different countries (J oum. R.
Statist. Soc., London, 1897, p. 154). The quotient thus obtained
decreases as the conditions are more favourable, and, on the
whole, it seems to form a good index to the merit of
TABLE Vlll.
{{missing table}}
the respective countries from the standpoint of vital
Serial ojrder Pef 1000 01 P0PUlaU0H- forces. The first column of Table VIII. shows the
HCCOY mg - I order in which the countries mentioned are found to
C to fogzmula CeS';'§ ';i'3if;(hS Total annual pigs; 123 e stand according to the above test.
On" ry' F' over Deaths. mcrease' emigration. The three Australasian states head the list in virtue
8 86 8 86 8 of their remarkably low death-rate, which outweighs
1895-1904. 2822"?;%§ I 2872? Egg';87§ T 192; the relative paucity of their births. The next countries
in order all belong to north-western Europe, and their
Sweden . 7 11~2 ro-9 7-7 7-1 3 3~7 index-quotients are all very close to each other.
~ - Ig ;4 0 i Sweden falls below its geographical neighbours owing
Denmark' ' 5 Im mi u 5 o Ig to its low birth-rate, and Finland because of its higher
mortality. England and Scotland, in spite of their
England . 8 13-6 II-8 12-5 11-5 1 o-2 higher birth-rates, are kept below Scandinavia by the
5C<if1aHd» - 9 I3'0 II'9 9'3 I0'6 3 I'2 higher death-rate, but their birth-rate places them
he and ' 13 9'6 5'2 6'9 -54 15 '0'7 above Eelgium. Ireland and France are pulled down
Holland 6 9.9 15.1 3.4 12.7 2 1.5 by their low natality. The latter, with the same
Belgium . II 7-8 IO~7 7-4 9-8 1 o-1 mortality as Germany, stands far below it for the
G€fm?~nY- ~ - 12 10'3 I4'7 7'3 I3'2 2 0'7 above reason, as Ireland is raised by its lower deathf“Stf»=1<'V~>-
16 7'9 I°'2 5'6 °'5 0' °'5 rate above the prolific countries of eastern Europe.
France 18 2 7 1 3 2 8 1 6, ,, , 1 0 The rate of natural growth is given in the second part
Italy . 15 6-5 1o-8 6-o 6-2 o- 4-6 of the table. In the case of two of the Australasian
Spam- ~ 19 A 7"7 7'0 5'I 4'9 2 0'4 states, of Holland, Finland, Spain and Italy, the
Russia 20 127 17 5 H7 135 0 1 6 order is in accord with that given by the test applied
H, mga, .y 18 8 5 11,5 8 2 9 3 0 0 9 above, and the difference between the two in Austria,
Servia 14 13-6 16- 5 14.4 0.5 - Ireland and France is not large. The great difference
Gallfla - - - i7 10'9 15-6 10'9 I0'4 0' 4'I between the serial rank occupied in the respective lists
New South Wales 2 248 164 369 184 +I2 2 3 by Russia, Servia and Galicia, with remarkably high
Victoria 3 24 7 12 7 208 5 2, 6, 7 5 rates of natural growth, as well as that found m the
New Zealand 1 27-0 16-3 63-o I9~O +36- -1- 2-7 case of most of the other countries in question, shows
under the same influence, those passing from their prime into
the second period of danger acquire a numerical preponderance
which throws its weight upon the general death-rate and tends
to raise it. It is assumed that throughout the above course the
hygienic conditions of life remain unchanged. If, however, they
undergo marked improvement, the duration of life is extended
and both birth and death-rates, being spread over a wider
field of the living, tend to decrease. On the other hand, an
accidental set-back to population, such as that caused by famine
or a disastrous war, leaves room which an increasing birth-rate
hastens to occupy. A similar result follows in a lesser degree
a wave of emigration. Examples of all the above tendencies
may be gleaned from the returns of the countries named in the
table, though space does not admit of their exhibition. In
both France and Germany, for instance, the process of replenishment
after a great war can be traced both early and late in the
the estimate of hygienic balance.
M igration.-Passing from the internal factors in the movement
of population, the influence has to be taken into account
of the interchange of population between different countries.
The net results of such exchange can be roughly estimated by
comparing the rate of natural growth with that of the total
increase of the community between one census and another,
as set forth in Table VIII., in the last section of which the approximate
loss by emigration, as calculated by Dr Sundbarg, is given.
It will be seen that the only European country which gains by
the exchange is France, and there the accretion is almost insignificant.
Between many of the countries there is a good deal
of migration which is only seasonal or temporary, according to
the demand for labour. From Russia, 'too, there is a stream of
colonization across the Urals into western Siberia, and amongst
the western Mediterranean populations there is constant<noinclude><references/></div></noinclude>