Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks for DraftKings - Kobalt 400
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Kobalt 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway - Las Vegas, Nevada
Track - 1.5 Mile D Shaped Oval Intermediate Track
20° Banking in the Corners
Qualifying order is set and final practice is now over. It's time to get into the picks for this weekend's race. If you are looking for a more in-depth look at the race, track and trends be sure to go back and check out my Kobalt 400 Race Preview Article from earlier this week.
I got a chance to watch all three practices and qualifying this week and have a few takeaways. As I usually do in normal circumstances, I will be weighing the results of practice one low as most teams worked mock qualifying runs rather than race setup. Stage racing has put even more importance on track position during the race so qualifying will be important to find those two or three dominator drivers. Not that a driver can't come through the field and also dominate(see Harvick 2015), but it's an even tougher task now.
Teams had the technology available to them in practice this week to see their segment speeds on pit road. This had a ton of teams practices pit road runs in second practice and even the final practice. This technology sounds like it won't be available all season and it's tough to say how teams will use this info. Another thing to watch for on Sunday after 11 drivers were nailed for 13 speeding penalties last week in Atlanta. Final practice will be weighed the highest of all practices as the track temp was in the mid to high 90 degree range(via FS1 on tv) which is the closest to actual race temperature.
Drivers to Build Around
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
DraftKings - $9,200
Practice 1 - 21st
Qualified -18th
Practice 2 - 17th
Final Practice - 3rd
Final Practice 10 Lap Avg. - 15th
Earnhardt Jr. continually got better all weekend and makes an excellent driver to build around. Why didn't I list him in the place differential section below you ask? It comes to the value he provides at $9,200(8th in salary) and the fact he has tallied six straight Top 10 finishes and eight in his last nine Vegas races.
Kevin Harvick
DraftKings - $10,700
Practice 1 - 8th
Qualified - 19th
Practice 2 - 9th
Final Practice - 15th
Final Practice 10 Lap Avg. - 7th
Another intermediate track, another possible dominator performance from Kevin Harvick. Even better this week is the fact he didn't lay down a good qualifying run and will start 19th giving him +18 place differential upside. He is one driver I never really worry too much about the practice speeds with as they always seem to save something for the race. There is a reason they call him the "Closer". It has the feel of the 2015 race where he started 18th and quickly made his way to the front and led 142 laps on the way to the checkered flag.
Matt Kenseth
DraftKings - $9,000
Practice 1 - 5th
Qualified - 4th
Practice 2 - 3rd
Final Practice - 4th
Final Practice 10 Lap Avg. - 13th
It all adds up for Kenseth once again here at the Kobalt 400. I mean he gets to annually spend his birthday in Las Vegas and while that would hurt 98% of us, it has led Kenseth to three career wins and a 12.9 career average finish. He also comes at a big discount at $9K and while he doesn't have much place differential value, he was Top 5 in all three practices. Happy Birthday, Matt!
Also Consider: Kyle Busch(It's his hometown & he has the 2nd most Intermediate Track wins last two years)
Top Place Differential Value Plays
Jimmie Johnson
DraftKings - $10,200
Practice 1 - 3rd
Qualified - 16th
Practice 2 - 16th
Final Practice - 13th
Final Practice 10 Lap Avg. - 6th
I am really torn on how people will view Jimmie this week. It's been a disappointing after a 7th championship with finishes of 34th and 19th through two races. Then you look at the practice times and outside of the opening practice, they have barely been able to find Top 15 speed. Even with the place differential upside I will only be using the #48 in GPP's as he does lead all active drivers with four wins here at Las Vegas. If he doesn't win this week does he finally shave the beard?
Austin Dillon
DraftKings - $8,200
Practice 1 - 23rd
Qualified - 22nd
Practice 2 - 10th
Final Practice - 10th
Final Practice 10 Lap Avg. - 18th
The #3 car didn't start the Vegas weekend off well as they ranked 23rd fastest in opening practice Friday. That resulted in a poor qualifying run which puts Dillon in the 22nd starting position for the race. The good news is he came out on Saturday and put up back to back Top 10 ranks in the final two practices. He has excellent place differential value and will be working with a Top 10 car on Sunday. Lock him in!
Bottom Tier Value Play
Trevor Bayne
DraftKings - $6,100
Practice 1 - 26th
Qualified - 20th
Practice 2 - 8th
Final Practice - 18th
Final Practice 10 Lap Avg. - 24th
The #6 team also had troubles finding speed early in the weekend but was able build to what appears to be a Top 20 car. He is starting 20th so there is definitely some risk with the place differential but has one Top 10 and four Top 20 finishes here in six career races. He ranks #20 on my overall model at 28th in salary.
Also Consider: TY Dillon
For a limited time I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE.
If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation. Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.