Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - Waste Management Phoenix Open
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games(head to heads/double ups) as well as upside plays for tournaments.
If you have any questions for Chris prior to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
**If you are looking for a recap of last week's tournament head over to my blog(JagerBombs Sports Blog) where I take a look at the ownership breakdown and DraftKings points to try and find some trends to exploit moving forward in the DFS golf season.**
Waste Management Phoenix Open
I am going to start off with a direct quote from lat year's article.
So ya, I am pretty disappointed to once again not be in Scottsdale, Arizona for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Ended up not being able to get the wife's passport in time. And for those of you asking why not just go without her? Well, after three consecutive trips to Las Vegas without her over the last few years it was the WMPO or my marriage. Haha. The edge goes to my wonderful wife no doubt about it! Ok on to the preview.
This week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. It is an event like no other on the PGA mainly due to the wild Par 3, 16th hole which at times sounds more like an outdoor rock concert than a golf hole. You won't find a marshall holding up a QUIET sign, you won't see players asking fans to move or be silent. No, you will just hear roar after roar for those who hit the green and finish with a birdie. Even louder, you will hear BOO after BOO for those who miss the green or, worse yet, three putt. Before getting into the overall course breakdown and key stats, let's take a look at the construction behind the 16th hole for this tournament.
The Course
TPC Scottsdale - Scottsdale, Arizona
Par 71 - 7,266 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course is a Par 71 setup that stretches 7,266 yards through desert terrain. Being a Par 71, there are only three par's this week and all of them come in around 550 yards and very reachable for almost the entire field. These three holes plus the reachable Par4, 17th hole are going to be the prime scoring holes this week. This pushes Par 5 Scoring and Birdie or Better % right to the top of the key stats list. Looking back at previous leaderboards there have been both long and short players off the tee who have had success here. In each of the last two years, there have been seven players who finished inside the Top 15 who ranked outside the Top 100 in Driving Distance those years. What does this mean? If you select shorter golfers off the tee make sure they are accurate in hitting fairways and on the longer approaches from 175-200 and 200+ as five of the Par 4's are 450 yards or longer. Those distances are also relevant for all golfers on the Par 3's as three of the four are between 183 ad 215 yards while the fourth sits at 163 yards.
The course was renovated for the 2015 event by TomWeiskopf with a bit of distance added(around 100 yards) along with some reconstruction of the bunkers. This includes the addition of a coffin bunker on the Par 5, 13th hole and church pew bunkers lining the left-hand side of the 18th hole. Four of the greens(2,3,4,14) were completely replaced while all the greens were resurfaced. The course plays a little tougher but I don't think it makes that big of a difference considering the winning scores since the reno have been -14 and -15. Prior to the reno the winning scores were very similar with the 2014 and 2012 winning scores being -16 and -15 with an outlier in the middle where Phil Mickelson shot a 28 under. Check out this ARTICLE by Golf Digest recapping the changes to TPC Scottsdale.
For a closer look at the golfers who have performed much better on Bermuda greens be sure to check out the Future of Fantasy Bermudagrass Specialists section on their site. They take a look and calculate each golfer's performance(Strokes Gained Putting) going back to the 2013/14 season. Don't set your lineups without checking it out!
Fantasy Angle
First of all, it's a bit of an odd puzzle to put together this week with the DraftKings pricing. We get players like Padraig Harrington who are extremely overpriced($8,500). I mean, he has missed three straight cuts here at TPC Scottsdale and missed the cut last week at the Farmers in his only start on the PGA Tour since the Travelers Championship back in August. Ya, so he is 250/1 in a range with players like Ryan Moore, Harris English and is more expensive than Phil Mickelson. Nuff said. If you want to go ultra-contrarian have it. I won't be touching him with your DraftKings account. Then we get Louis Oosthuisen who normally comes in the $8K-$9K range. Not this week. He is $6,900 and has only missed one cut since the Dean & Deluca Invitational last May(11 official tournaments).
Even with the weird pricing, I think a stars and scrubs strategy is going to be the popular choice for tournaments with elite players like Spieth, Matsuyama and JT right at the top combined with a ton of sub $7K values. While I will have a large number of these lineups in my 50 $1 Short Game Max Entry lineups, I will be concentrating on a more balanced approach for my Single Entry lineups. For my Three Entry Max lineups, I love running one balanced, one stars and scrubs and one totally contrarian lineup.
The stats and all the info I discuss below can be found on my Cheatsheet which is currently FREE for a limited time. It includes weighted stats(Raw & ranked), Course History, Current Form, Odds, and much more. To make your own model with the sheet just "create a copy" from the file menu and if you have any questions hit me up on Twitter.
High End Targets ($9,000+)
Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (6th)
Vegas Odds (7/1)
Draftkings ($12,000)
I will be building the majority of my stars and scrubs lineups around Spieth this week. Don't get me wrong, it is hard to argue with Matsuyama's course history(1st, 2nd, 4th), form or stats. Even my cheatsheet has him slightly ahead of Spieth in the overall weighted rankings. My thought here is that Spieth will come at a bit less ownership being more expensive with shinier history. If you told me now the separation in ownership would be more tan 5% I would go allin on Spieth. He finished seventh here in his only trip to TPC Scottsdale in 2015 and comes in with pretty good form himself. He finished third at both the Sony Open and SBS Tournament of Champions and also won the Australian Open back in November. I know the field wasn't the greatest with just a few top names(Scott, Vegas, Baddeley, Senden), but a win is a win. Right? The big reason I lean Spieth over Matsuyama is the fact the swapped World Golf rankings this week and after being #1 in the world for 26 weeks in his career, you can bet he will be motivated after falling outside the Top 5.
John Rahm
World Golf Ranking (46th)
Vegas Odds (20/1)
Draftkings ($9,700)
I normally don't like backing the winner of the previous week but this week is special. I, of course, missed out last week after touting him all the way back to last summer but the price is just too cheap to fade this week. After winning the Farmers Insurance Open his price is still below the $10K mark. He can score in bunches, as he showed on Sunday en route to his win, and sits with an absurd 1.877 Strokes Gained:Tee to Green in my weighted '16/'17 stats rankings. He is also second in GIR(73.6%), 1st in Par 4 Scoring(3.90), 9th in Par 5 Scoring(4.54) and 2nd in BoB%(28.3%). This week is somewhat of a home game for Rahm as he went to ASU which is just 18 miles South of TPC Scottsdale. He played this tournament back in 2015 as an amateur and finished with an impressive T5. In my opinion, he is a better player now with incredible form and there is no reason he shouldn't duplicate that performance or become the second back to back winner of the season. Either way, he is safe in all formats.
Brooks Keopka
World Golf Ranking (19th)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($9,100)
There are minimal options in the $9K+ range and I could have easily just added Matsuyama but I wanted to give you a possible low-owned, high-upside GPP play. Enter Brooks Koepka. Other than Gary Woodland, he is the cheapest golfer in the Upper Tier and despite his missed cut last week has some decent form(2nd at Shriners, T40 at HSBC Champions) and definitely has excellent course history with a T41 last year and win in 2015. He is ranked fourth in my weighted stats rankings highlighted by SG:T2G(7th), SG:OTT(4th), Par 5 Scoring(11th) and Birdie or Better%(7th). He will most likely be lower than 15% owned in bigger tournaments with many using a stars and scrubs strategy with one of the Top 3 golfers.
Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)
Ryan Moore
World Golf Ranking (28th)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($8,600)
The $8K range contains 10 golfers this week and outside of Paddy, I could make a case for all of them. I will start with Ryan Moore who ticks off all the boxes this week, ranking 11th overall in my initial model. His course history here at TPC Scottsdale is spot on as he has made nine of 11 cuts in his career including eight straight and four straight Top 20 finishes. His form is also trending in the right direction with finishes of T17, T23, T15 and T3 most recently at the SBS Tournament of Champions. Statistically, he is below average in Driving Distance(97th) but makes up for it with his accuracy, both off the tee and in the approach game. He ranks 10th in Driving Accuracy, 10th in SG: APP, and most importantly being a shorter hitter, he is 1st in the field in GIR from 200+yards.
Bubba Watson
World Golf Ranking (12th)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
It's hard to ignore one the best players in the world, especially considering you get him at a mid $8K price tag. I wouldn't feel safe using him in cash games as the form hasn't been there early in the season with finishes of T25 and T54 but we all know the upside he brings to the table with that pink driver. Looking at the cheatsheet, he ranks 2nd in SG: OTT, 8th inDriving Distance, 16th in Par 5 Scoring and Top 20 in GIR from 125 all the way up to 200+ yards. He has also made nine cuts in 10 trips to TPC Scottsdale including five straight Top 20 finishes and three Top 5's in those five years.
Russell Knox
World Golf Ranking (18th)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
Knox draws ver close comparisons to Ryan Moore this week in that both are just average at best in the Driving Distance department but elite in accuracy. Looking at the cheatsheet ranks, Knox(5th) actually comes in as a better play than Moore(11th) for a few reasons. The main reasons are GIR where Knox ranks 4th in the field while Moore ranks 48th and Par 5 Scoring where Knox ranks 23rd while Moore is back in 64th. Knox doesn't have near as much history here at TPC Scottsdale but did finish 15th in his only trip back in 2015.
Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)
Roberto Castro
World Golf Ranking (77th)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)
I mentioned the gross under-pricing of Louis Oosthuisen in the preview and I am pretty sure he will be very highly owned in this range, at least in GPP formats. I will be pivoting to Castro this week who actually ranks 37 spots higher on my cheatsheet thanks to a Top 20 ranking in SG: APP, Good Drive %, GIR 175-200 and he is 22nd in Bogey Avoidance. All the talk with Louis was the one missed cut in 11 events dating back to May but Castro has a similar story. He has made eight straight cuts(5 this season) dating back to the Barclays in August and done better than Louis making it all the way to the TOUR Championship finishing 17th. Castro also has the edge in course history with back to back Top 20 finishes in 2014 and 2013 while this will be Louis's first trip to TPC Scottsdale.
Patrick Rodgers
World Golf Ranking (123)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($6,600)
The biggest thing that stood out when first looking at the completed cheatsheet was the value of Patrick Rodgers. He comes in ranked 94th in Draftkings salary but 22nd in vegas Odds. Something doesn't add up. He has been inconsistent so far this year missing four of seven cuts which limits him to GPP only but he comes with a ton of upside. When he is making cuts, he is finishing high like his T21 at the CIMB Classic, T10 at the RSM Classic and most recently with an impressive T4 at the Farmers last week. To make you feel even more warm and fuzzy, he also finished T17 at this event last year in his first trip to TPC Scottsdale.
Also Consider: Lucas Glover
If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/NHL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!
For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanSharSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". Don't set your lineups without checking it out!
**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**
Waste Management Phoenix Open Update Thread
**Weather Update**
**Tee Times**
Here are your Round 1 Tee Times.
Woods. ✔️
Lyle. ✔️
Molinari. ✔️
Is there a better place to make an ace? pic.twitter.com/TtqZIKKlvM
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 31, 2017
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.