Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FantasyAces - SBS Tournament of Champions
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FantasyAces. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course, setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games(head to heads/double ups) as well as upside plays for tournaments.
If you have any questions for Chris prior to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments sections, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
SBS Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at Kapalua - Kapalua, Maui
Par 73 - 7,452 Yards
Okay, before we get started I have been spending a ton of time on YouTube this winter reviewing last year and wanted to share this video in case you haven't seen it 100 times like me.
The short three-week winter break is now over and I couldn't be more excited to get back into the PGA DFS weekly grind. This week is a bit of a tease as the SBS Tournaments of Champions consists of only winners from the 2016 season. There were 38 players who qualified for this event in Kapalua but six (Rory, McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Charl Schwartzel, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Danny Willett) have withdrawn, leaving the field pretty thin with 32 players. As a 2016 winner, you sure get rewarded by getting to start your 2017 season with a trip to Kapalua and a crack at the Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw designed Plantation course. It is one of the easiest courses on tour and the only Par 73 that golfers will see all season meaning a ton of birdies. The wind can definitely play a factor but even with the wind filled 2013 tournament, Dustin Johnson won with a -13 final score. The average winning score over the last five years has been -22 with last years winner Jordan Spieth coming close to setting the record with his -30 winning score. Another thing to note about the tournament is that there will be no cut so all 32 golfers will get four rounds of competition, that is if no one withdraws.
From a statistical point of view, I will be weighing Birdie or Better % and Par 5 Scoring right near the top as they correlate very closely to DraftKings scoring which will be very high this week. Distance off the tee isn't essential but if there is any wind at all it will be very advantageous to the longer hitters so I often weigh it higher than accuracy. Also, looking at the Par 4 holes, you will notice that six of them come in under 400 yards with two more coming in under 420 yards. This will put a ton of emphasis on short approaches so look for players ranked high in Greens in Regulation and especially Proximity from the shorter yardages. The greens at the Plantation course are Bermuda grass and considered tougher to read and putt due to the bumpiness so I will also be weighing Strokes Gained: Putting fairly high as well.
For DFS play, I will be avoiding cash games as I always do for the no-cut events. I will also be limiting my overall exposure as the edge just isn't there and there will be a ton of overlapping lineups. If you are looking an edge, try and leave some salary on the table to separate yourself from the field. Another way to gain an edge is to accurately predict ownership. There are several things that go into ownership projections including:
Recent Form
Stat Rankings
Course History
Social Media Mentions
My favorite place to go when predicting ownership is www.FanShareSports.com where they put together a list of tagged golfers, sit and start recommendations and sentiment ratings leading up to every single PGA tournament. Check it out!
With all of that said, let's dig in and take a look at some of the top DFS plays for the SBS Tournament of Champions.
If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NFL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!
High End Targets ($9,000+)
Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (5th)
Vegas Odds (6/1)
Draftkings ($11,500)
FantasyAces ($6,000)
He is the most expensive golfer on DraftKings this week and for good reason. He has played here twice now in his young career winning last year and coming in second in 2013. He not only won last year, he blew the field away shooting -30 which was eight strokes better than Patrick Reed who finished as the runner-up. With Kapalua being one of the easiest course's on Tour with its large fairways and greens, the tournament usually comes down to the golfer who the hottest flat stick. Like I mentioned in the preview, the greens are Bermuda and are very bumpy and come with a ton of break. It isn't a coincidence Spieth has excelled here as he is one of the best putters in the world. He has also been busy this "off season" as a part of the winning USA Ryder Cup team in October and followed that up with his second career win at the Australian Open. His first win at the Aussie Open you ask? 2014. Right before his PGA Tour 2015 season explosion. I believe this is just another sign that Spieth is back with #1 in his sights.
Hideki Matsuyama
World Golf Ranking (6th)
Vegas Odds (6/1)
Draftkings ($11,000)
FantasyAces ($5,850)
He is going to be a popular pick this week but I don't think ownership is nearly as important in a small field event. It's more about scoring as every golfer will get four rounds this week. Fading him due to ownership could be a detrimental mistake as he is about as hot as a golfer could be right now. He is coming off a ver successful 2016 campaign where he won the Waste Management Phoenix Open and had eight total Top 10 finishes. That is nothing compared to his start to the new season. It started with a victory in his homeland followed by the CIMB Classic where he shot four rounds under 70, finishing second. He then went to China and won the WGC-HSBC Champions and most recently picked up the win at Tiger's tournament, the Hero Challenge. He comes in with incredible confidence and also will have his eye on that coveted #1 spot in te World. Statistically speaking, he sits right near the top in all the key categories minus putting which was just average last season but has been terrific to start the new season. He is playing the best golf of his young career and is poised to keep it going in Kapalua where he finished third in his only other appearance two years ago.
Also Consider - Dustin Johnson
Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)
Brandt Snedeker
World Golf Ranking (28th)
Vegas Odds (19/1)
Draftkings ($8,700)
FantasyAces ($5,200)
More than anything this week I am falling back on putting as almost everyone will be hitting fairways and greens at a high clip. This will put emphasis on the flat stick fi you are going to separate yourself from the other 31 players. You can't have a conversation about putters without mentioning Snedeker's name as he has finished each of the last five years inside the Top 35 in Strokes Gained: Putting with three Top 5 finishes(2015,2013,2012). He also has some nice course history here which I am ranking quite high this week. He has played here four times in his career, finishing 3rd last year and finishing no worse than 11th in those four trips to Kapalua. With stars and scrubs more than likely being a popular tournament strategy, playing Snedeker with a more balanced lineup would be one way to be contrarian this week.
Ryan Moore
World Golf Ranking (35th)
Vegas Odds (26/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FantasyAces ($5,000)
Moore was very active in the fall portion of the season playing three times. He finished T17 at the CIMB Classic, T23 at the WGC-HSBC Champions and most recently finished T15 at the Shriners Open where he shot four rounds under 70. All this after a strong finish to last season where he had a win at the John Deere Classic followed by three Top 10 finishes in the FedEx Cup playoffs. He is another top putter who finished last season 32nd in SG:P and currently sits 6th where is gaining 1.636 strokes to the field on the greens through three tournaments. Moore also has experience here at Kapalua where he has played four times in the past(T20, 10, T28, T6).
Also Consider - Jason Dufner
Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)
Cody Gribble
World Golf Ranking (202nd)
Vegas Odds (81/1)
Draftkings ($6,700)
FantasyAces ($3,850)
As we get further down the salary list, it becomes harder and harder to find golfers with a combination of form, stats and course history. While I really want to roster golfers who have experience at this unique course, mostly due to the greens, I will make an exception for Gribble. He came out of the box flying in his rookie season with a T8 at the Safeway Open and followed that up with career win #1 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. What was most impressive about the win was that he opened the tournament with a 73, battled back on Friday with a 63 to easily make the cut then finished with a final round 65 to win the tournament. It's very early in the season and some of the top players have yet to play but Gribble ranks #1 in SG: P and #2 in Putting Average in the field(*Combined stats on my cheatsheet factoring 16/17 stats*). He is by no means a slam dunk pick as he is coming off his first missed cut of his career at the RSM Classic but has shown us the upside we want to see for tournaments.
Also Consider - Jhonattan Vegas(GPP Only)
SBS Tournament of Champions Update Thread
No. 3 of Jordan Spieth's top three moments of the year came at Kapalua.
He defends his title in just three days. pic.twitter.com/igKMXvIp1d
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 2, 2017
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.