Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 13 12/1/16
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QUARTERBACKS
Russell Wilson FD 7700 DK 6300
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 22.03 DK - 22.87
Russell Wilson was the definitive chalk QB of week 12, and summarily had the worst passing game of his career in a plus match-up with Tampa Bay. But the discerning DFS player has to ask himself (or herself!) - who is the real Wilson? Is it the crime against humanity that we saw against the Bucs, or was it the guy who had 25 or more fantasy points in each of the three weeks prior? Or is he the guy who was awful the three weeks before that? Gulp. There are a lot of things to point to as to why Wilson's taken a step back this year, from his lower completion percentage, to his reluctance to run as much, but you know what? All of those little foibles are exactly why we're getting him at such a deep discount. He's had 8 carries in each of the last two weeks, and his core receivers are mostly healthy. Carolina, meanwhile, has never recovered from trying to replace their cornerbacks - they're 26th in the league in yards per attempt allowed and 27th in total passing yards allowed. Look for a big comeback game from Wilson here.
Aaron Rodgers FD 8500 DK 6700
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 23 DK - 23.61
It seems like we're the only outfit to key in on Rodgers week in, week out, but he's becoming harder to ignore. We're now on 6 straight weeks with 23 or more fantasy points per game, and his receiving corp is as healthy as it's been all season. The big question mark with Rodgers early on this season was the completion percentage. After following up last year's 60% with a slow start it looked like Rodgers had turned a sad corner in his career, but he's completed 68% of his passes since week 3, and it looks like we've still got a decent amount of Rodgers' prime before us. The issue with this selection is the match-up. Houston has been a solid passing defense all season, and they aren't a great streaming target by any means. At just $8,500 on FanDuel and $6,700 on DraftKings, though, Rodgers is just a tremendous value regardless of this match-up.
Matt Barkley FD 6000 DK 5000
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 18.32 DK - 19.27
It doesn't happen often, but when we get a quarterback with a price this low we have to at least take notice. Nobody gave Barkley and the Bears any chance against the Titans (present company included), but he and the 2nd teamers went out there and put 316 yards and 3 passing touchdowns on the board. And this week, they're... favored? They're favored. Man, it must be terrible to be a 49ers fan right now. The 49ers have been basically league average against the pass this season, so this is mostly a price and opportunity play. Barkley doesn't need anything like the 23 fantasy points he scored last week to be worth your investment, and he allows you to grab some excellent big money options elsewhere.
Also considered: Drew Brees. The price is through the roof, but he's the highest upside quarterback from a raw points perspective. The Saints have the highest implied total by a mile, and while I don't think he offers Rodgers' safety, the upside is undeniable.
RUNNING BACKS
Jordan Howard FD 7400 DK 6900
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 22.69 DK - 24.37
Against what feels like all odds, the Bears are actually favorites this week against the 49ers. It probably says more about the 49ers than it does about the Bears, but all things considered I’m still surprised by the line. Jordan Howard is the clear RB1 in Chicago and is seeing touches even when the Bears are playing from behind. They lost by a touchdown to the Titans last week and Howard was still good 18/84 on the ground and 3/43 through the air. San Fran is brutal against the run this season and we can’t read too much into their controlling Jay Ajayi last week as Miami was without three starting offensive linemen. It stands to reason Howard sees plenty of touches in this game and his price isn’t cost prohibitive on either site for a guy averaging more than five yards per carry on the season.
David Johnson FD 9200 DK 9500
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 21.8 DK - 23.89
Le'Veon Bell FD 9300 DK 9200
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 21.99 DK - 25.1
We typically want to target running backs with favorable implied game scripts (i.e. their team is going to play from ahead) who see a majority of the touches no matter which way the game goes. That’s Bell and Johnson in a nutshell. They are as about as good as it gets on the running back front and completely dominate touches on offense.
In the last two weeks Bell’s averaged 25 carries and 6 catches good for an average of 171 total yards. The Giants are an above average defense all things considered and the Steelers are a -5 favorite going in.
Meanwhile Johnson’s projected opportunity is nearly identical in a game where they also come in as the favorites. The Redskins are worse than the Giants against the run, which might give the slight nod to DJ. The biggest issue here is possibly picking between the two. It’s tough to fit both of their salaries without really sacrificing somewhere else and in our projections they are about as close to a coin flip as it gets. This is will be the big question for us leading into Week 13.
Melvin Gordon FD 8000 DK 7200
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 18.95 DK - 21.28
I know the Bucs shut down the Seahawks last week, ruining many a DFS Sunday. But over the course of the year that performance is likely more an outlier for that D than the truth. Gordon is still the clear workhorse in San Diego though the yards per carry on the season do leave something to be desired. the key for him at these prices is just how much he’s improved his situation in the passing game. Gordon’s averaging more than three catches per game and game flow doesn’t buzz off his opportunity like it does some other ball carriers. The Chargers are -4 favorites at home this week against the Bucs who will have had to play two West Coast games in a row over the last two weeks.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tyrell Williams FD 6600 DK 6100
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 17.05 DK - 20.13
We knew the Chargers' targets were going to have to go somewhere, and it's turned out that somewhere is Tyrell Williams. He's targeted 25 times in the last 2 weeks, and turned those targets into 13 catches, 195 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He's now topped 16 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games, and Antonio Gates' disappearance last week only bolsters Williams claim as the #1 target in San Diego. He'll have a great match-up with the Bucs this week, as they've maintained their role as a bottom 4 passing defense even after Russell Wilson's no show last week. Seems like a great play in all formats.
Julio Jones FD 8300 DK 8700
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 18.8 DK - 22.26
Julio Jones is simply not the supremely safe big money receiver that he used to be, but all that's done is reduced his price and made him an excellent play when the match-up goes his way. While KC is no pushover, the Chiefs have ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards per attempt and have ranked 26th overall at defending WR1s. After extremely tough match-ups with Arizona (1st) and Philly (8th), Jones is in line for a huge performance here.
Tyreek Hill FD 5800 DK 4600
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 14.22 DK - 17.48
Hill has been tremendous in 2 of his last 3 games, and one of those was against a very tough Denver defense in suboptimal weather conditions. And he's cheap! And Atlanta has allowed the 3rd most passing yards this season! My exclamation point key is broken! Okay, relax. This should be most of the analysis you need, but there's a little wrinkle about Hill I find interesting - he's also a sneaky red zone target for a little guy. He was brought in specifically in red zone situations before he took on a more prominent role, and his 5 touchdowns in 56 targets this year are elite. I love him as a way to save up for bigger names elsewhere.
A note on the other big name receivers. Our projection system thinks Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Odell Beckham are all great plays this week. If you can pay up for them, they look really good. It's just that the above guys are such better values that it may not be right to prioritize them in the current DFS landscape.
TIGHT ENDS
Travis Kelce FD 6300 DK 4700
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 14.99 DK - 18.59
Much of what we said about Tyreek Hill above applies to Kelce as well. With Jeremy Maclin off the field in the short term, much of the target share has gone Kelce's way, culminating last week in a 15 target game good for 8/101. That of course is on the very high end of his expected opportunity, but penciling him in for 9-10 targets in this offense is completely reasonable. He now ranks second in TE targets on the season (behind Greg Olsen) and third in overall yards. I like his price on both sites, but especially on DraftKings with the full point PPR for under $5K. The Falcons rank 19th in DVOA against opposing tight ends and I suspect you see Kelce as the most popular TE play of the week.
Vance McDonald FD 4900 DK 2900
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 11.55 DK - 13.57
He's simply a price play at this point and has been seeing consistent (if not totally overwhelming) target share opportunity since Colin Kaepernick took over behind center. Since that move by SF, McDonald's averaging about a 6/50 with a couple of touchdowns thrown in. For these prices, that's more than enough to get it done and spend elsewhere at the skill positions. Not a flashy name by any means but he's been as consistent as you can hope for out of the position in his price range.
DEFENSE/ SPECIAL TEAMS
New England Patriots vs. LA Rams
New quarterback in LA, Rams still suck. Jared Goff took over the helm in the last two weeks only to complete 58% of his passes and run really hot with touchdowns in his debut. He might one day be the answer to the Rams' problems, but it likely won't be this season. LA has the lowest implied total on the week and have to head into New England for a tough matchup. The Pats aren't a shut down defense, though they are stingy against the run. LA can't get that going anyway so no worries there. They'll have to air it out to even think about keeping pace (which they won't be able to) and there's solid interception upside for New England. They are one of the cheaper DSTs on FD and I suspect end up being a rather chalky play.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
We saw the brutal effect losing a large chunk of your offensive line can have on a team. The Dolphins struggled to get much of anything going on the ground last week against a bad San Fran D. The Ravens are a different story. They rank first in DVOA against the run this season and Miami could really have issues in this one. The Ravens are more of a DK play coming in at only $2600 and rank as the number 4 overall defense on the season. Miami is projected for less than 20 points all said and done.
Football, baby!
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You can grab a go test it out yourself.
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