Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/7/16 Playoffs
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Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Analysis
After two games, we’ve had two slow, grinding contests. They both went to OT, yet I wasn’t particularly entertained. I guess if I was a Heat or Raptors fan… Maybe if I had a DFS lineup to stir my interest? Great idea! The problem here is the game’s likely low Pace, given the teams’ defenses, playing styles, and performances to date. That makes it hard to project players from either side to have a particularly good fantasy night. The players who look to get the most touches won’t get that many relative to a typical game (or the other game on the slate). The higher priced (over $7k) options here do not project to have good multiples. One or two might have strong performances, but it’s impossible to expect that on average. We know D-Wade will be clutch, but that doesn’t mean he’ll put up 30. Is anyone out there willing to run Lowry in a cash contest? There are a couple of solid mid-tier plays, but tread carefully with anyone else in this one.
Top Plays
DeMarre Carroll - FD 4800 DK 4300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 24.78 DK Proj. Pts - 26.76
Carroll is the second-best SF option for Saturday’s slate on FD. Fortunately you get (have) to play two, meaning Demarre is a solid play there. On DK it’s a different (even better) story. His significantly lower price, combined with the favorable scoring system, render him the top SF option, and arguably the play of the night at any position. Will he put up a 9x like last game? You can’t expect that, but somewhere between a 9x and Game 1’s 5x seems reasonable. We like him to go over 6x on average. Get him in your lineups.
Jonas Valanciunas - FD 7000 DK 7000
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 33.98 DK Proj. Pts - 34.56
JV is a monster in real life, and produces fantasy points like crazy on a per-minute basis. The problem is counting on him to get near 40 minutes of run as did in the first two games of the series. If he sees that much court time again, he’d be the top Center option on both sites. However, it’s more realistic to expect a low-to-mid 30’s night. That definitely makes him a fine option, but not a no-brainer. If you like him for high 30s instead of lower 30s, put him in. At the less favorable expectation, he’s still one of two realistic choices on the night. He has a high floor, and I like his upside a lot.
Joe Johnson - FD 5100 DK 5000
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.97 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
Joe Johnson being one of a handful of picks from this game speaks volumes. He’s not a bad option, and if you don’t want to run chalk at SF, he’s certainly a nice pivot play. We like a couple of other guys quite a bit more, even on DK where he’d be a strong play on many nights. Outside of diversifying your lineups, I’d go with the other positional options.
Luol Deng - FD 6500 DK 6800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 27.4 DK Proj. Pts - 28.81
This pick makes a strong statement about not just the game, but the position overall. Deng is simply less valuable in fantasy than real life. Running an NBA team? Love to have him. In DFS, unless you’re willing to roll with Ed Davis, he’s your third option on FD. Ugh. I think I’ll stick to the chalk in cash games. Note that he’s listed at SF on DK, which makes him an even worse play.
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trailblazers
Analysis
If we can’t make many recommendations from the other game, it’s reasonable to expect a lot from this one. That’s what you’ll find below. The projections assume Steph Curry won’t play, and I think that’s a very safe proposition. This is good news from a DFS perspective (at least for cash games) as it provides predictability. We’re likely to see much of what we saw in the first two contests. Portland returns home, but they haven’t shown a ton (against a full team) in the City of Roses during the playoffs. In Round 1, they pulled out a hard-fought Game 3 win against the full Clippers squad, then barely won their last two home games against the Clips’ second team. It’s tough to expect a Blazers win (Golden State is actually favored by 3), much less a romp. What is reasonable to expect is solid statistical performances from a bunch of players, and that’s what we like to see around here.
Top Plays
Harrison Barnes - FD 4400 DK 4500
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.72 DK Proj. Pts - 25.37
Barnes is one of my favorite plays of the night on FD, and easily the top option as his position on a Pts/$ basis. He gets more run with Steph out, and seems to have found his shot again after stinking up the joint throughout the Rockets series. But for Demarre Carroll, he’d be the top SF option on DK as well, and is one of the top values of the night at any position. Run him with Carroll on FD, and find a way to get him in your lineup on DK. You’re best off spending big money on other positions.
Klay Thompson - FD 8000 DK 9100
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 43.99 DK Proj. Pts - 47.77
At his relatively low price you can’t afford not to run Klay Thompson on FD on Saturday. He’s that much better than the other alternatives. Despite the bonus for the 3-ball on DK, his outrageous price makes him less attractive. As the primary shooter for the Dubs, he’s still a viable option. He’s not a must-play on performance, but may be due to salary issues (as in, you have to spend it somewhere, and SF surely isn’t it). I do think you should run him on DK, just temper your expectations given what you need to spend.
Damian Lillard - FD 8500 DK 9200
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 45.48 DK Proj. Pts - 49.08
The ultimate chalk play and place to spend your money, Lillard does fall into the “must” category on Saturday. He is easily the top PG on both sites. Like, by over 20%. Even at his inflated price on DK. He has to be in your lineup based both on value and the necessity of spending all your available dollars. Plug him in and move along.
C.J. McCollum - FD 7000 DK 6700
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.98 DK Proj. Pts - 37.03
On FD, McCollum isn’t in the same “necessary” category as his backcourt mate, but most certainly represents a solid play. You need two SGs there, and he pretty much stands out as the second choice after Klay. On DK, he’s Saturday’s non-punt SG of the night. With a high floor/ceiling combination, McCollum is another nice opportunity to get production and invest your dollars on both sites. Don’t let his inconsistency scare you off – the floor reflects the DFSR system’s expectation that he’s due to be “on” for Saturday.
Mason Plumlee - FD 6200 DK 6400
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 30.35 DK Proj. Pts - 30.8
I mentioned that there were two viable Center options on Saturday. Plumlee is the second. He’s neck-and-neck with Valanciunas in Pts/$ terms on FD and DK. I can see playing either. They’re in the same salary range, so that doesn’t differentiate them much. It’s worth noting that Plumlee projects for a slightly lower floor and marginally higher ceiling. Neither is a bad choice. Note that we’re not recommending Andrew Bogut on Saturday. He shows a good multiple, but his price has shot up 15% in two games, bringing his floor into question. You also need to spend money, and the other centers are good places to do so.
Draymond Green - FD 9600 DK 11200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 47.82 DK Proj. Pts - 50.28
While on the subject of needing to spend money, it seems like the right spot to bring up Draymond. It’s really a tale of two sites here. On FD, he’s priced TWENTY PERCENT lower relative to his DK price. Even at the reduced FD rate, he carries the highest salary of the night. You need two PFs, and he’s the top option. Even if you didn’t need to invest your salary, which you do, he’s the play. On DK, he’s pretty close to must, but for different reasons. The price seems almost prohibitive, to the point where you might in fact consider investing elsewhere. The issue here is positional options, because the next pick is a SF on DK. Despite the outrageous price tag, he’s essentially the top PF on the site. I know he had one big game, but I remain uncomfortable with Ed Davis. So much so that I’ll be running Green.
Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5600 DK 5500
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.62 DK Proj. Pts - 28.66
Aminu isn’t one of the last picks because of his value. He’s the second-best alternative on FD, and third isn’t in the neighborhood. He should be in your lineup. On DK, as a SF he’s nice enough, but there are better alternatives. He rarely dips below 4x, and typically approaches 5x. Other than going off one night against the underhanded Clippers though, he won’t get you much more. Run him on FD, move along on DK.
Shaun Livingston - FD 4800 DK 5700
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 22.33 DK Proj. Pts - 22.5
And finally… Because you have to play two point guards on FanDuel. That’s all I got. Really. Don’t touch him on DK.
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