The news that Hong Kong’s pro-democracy bloc has won an influential share of seats on the Election Committee that picks the city’s next leader signifies that Hong Kong’s political crisis is far from over.
This follows last week’s surprise announcement from the city’s top official, the pro-Beijing CY Leung, that he would not seek a second term as its chief executive. In short, Beijing’s hold on the autonomous region is beginning to look more and more precarious.
Leung’s disapproval rating among the Hong Kong public stands at an abysmal 61 per cent, and it is clear that many link both his unpopularity and his departure to his deferential attitude toward the mainland.
The two sides in this political crisis are beginning to harden into pro-democracy and pro-independence, vs authoritarian and nationalist.
The question that now arises is: what – if anything – is Britain’s responsibility in this situation?
The fact is, whether it wishes to be or not, the UK is deeply involved in Hong Kong’s affairs.
It has had a long historic connection to the city, and is co-signatory to the Joint Declaration, which established the basis for Hong Kong’s democratic constitution and the legal protection of many of the rights that its citizens enjoy.
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Theresa May is understandably tied up with Brexit and her continuing concerns over Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary, not to mention Britain’s growing economic relationship with China.
At present, Chinese investment is integral to the United Kingdom’s economic strategy. In the wake of Brexit, Prime Minister May has emphasised the government’s ambitions to embark on a golden age of Sino-British relations and deepen the trade partnership.
Unfortunately, China has become steadily more authoritarian at home – which has impacted both the readiness of countries to accept Chinese investment in their crucial national infrastructure, and impacted London specifically on the issue of Hong Kong.
Earlier this year, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) accused the Chinese government, for the first time, of breaching the Sino-British Joint Declaration over a series of disappearances of Hong Kong booksellers, believed to be in detention in mainland China.
As a result, there has been growing pressure on the British government to uphold its legal and moral responsibility towards Hong Kong, particularly after the emergence 2014 Umbrella Movement and Beijing’s subsequent repressive policies towards the territory.
So is there anything May can do?
Well, one thing she must not do is be the Prime Minister who stood by as another Tiananmen Square-style event took place on her watch. Britain can do something, or it can look the other way. And how May chooses will affect not only the citizens of Hong Kong, but the British economy and its budding relationship with Beijing.
As a result of Beijing’s mistakes, a new “localist” movement has emerged in Hong Kong, calling for democratic and national self-determination, the perpetuation of the Basic Law and new relations between Hong Kong, China and Britain.
Even ideas of independence, or returning to British rule, have been put on the table.
While this may seem far-fetched and unrealistic from this side of the world, it is worth noting for two reasons.
First, localism – a desire to protect both Hong Kong’s culture and its autonomy – has a deep-rooted popularity among the young generation, particularly university students. The future of Hong Kong identifies more with Hong Kong than with China.
Second, that movement has been strengthened by voter support in the most recent legislative elections. In fact, localist candidates won 19 per cent of the votes.
On the one hand, China’s attacks on democracy and the rule of law are deeply relevant to Britain’s long-term interests and principles.
On the other hand, a post-Brexit Britain needs all the friends it can get, and a free trade agreement with China would validate the notion that the UK can and will thrive on its own.
So the ultimate consideration Britain has to make is how much of a soft-power sacrifice is it willing to make?
British non-interference does not necessarily mean that Hong Kong’s localist movement will peter out. It may instead seek other allies such as the United States and Taiwan.
But without the buffer of British mediation, the conflict between the young generation in Hong Kong and the Beijing government would escalate further.
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Rather than leaving this to the FCO, Theresa May should instead create a “special representative” at Cabinet level, someone with the confidence of both the FCO and the Department of Trade. This might give some sort of real focus to British thinking and policy on the issue.
Whoever undertakes such a task should meet with localist students and attempt to understand their grievances and whether London can play a constructive “fair arbiter” role. This would allow the FCO to formulate an informed and justified response and provide recommendations.
In the meantime, it is likely that Hong Kong’s next chief executive will not be as deferential to Beijing as Mr Leung. That does not bode well for stability of the city.
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