Cheltenham
1.30 Iroko 13-2
2.10 Icare Allen 9-1
2.50 Envoi Allen 9-2 (Ante Post))
3.30 Sir Gerhard 7-1 and Paisley Park 14-1
4.10 Theatre Man 4-1 and Arctic Bresil 14-1 (Notebook)
4.50 Jade De Grugy 3-1 (Ante Post)
5.30 Cool Survivor 10-1
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E/w Lucky 15 – 2.10 Icare Allen 8-1 ,3.30 Paisley Park 14-1 ,4.10 Theatre Man 4-1 ,5.30 Cool Survivor 9-1
Trixie – 2.50 Envoi Allen 11-4, 3.30 Sir Gerhard 6-1 ,4.50 Jade De Grugy 2-1
* Thursday’s card looks tricky on paper and I had this one marked as bookies day. Hopefully I am wrong but please tread carefully especially in those ultra competitive handicap races that haven’t been too kind to punters in recent years.
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1.30 Turners Novice Chase Grade 1
This is a fairly new race and there has been 13 renewals so far. I still have memory of that dramatic 4 runner race at the festival from 2 years ago when Galopin Des Champs fell when he was a long way clear after the final fence. Lightly-raced hurdlers, who are sent chasing quickly, also tend to do well, whilst a last-time-out win in Graded company is also very much a positive.
Irish trained horses have won nine of the 13 renewals to date and Willie Mullins like to target this race with a top class novice. He has won it four times in the past with the likes of Vautour, Yorkhill, Sir Des Champs and Black Hercules. He hasn’t won the race since 2017 though. JP Mcmanus has won 2 of the past five races (Chantry House and Defi Du Seuil) while British bred horses are 0/10 in race. Of the 13 winners so far, ten had won their previous race of which nine had contested a Grade 1 chase earlier in the season.
Facile Vega has been rerouted to this race as he’s been crying out for a longer trip for some time. He won the Champion Bumper in 2022 and was runner up to Marine Nationale in the Supreme last year. He made his chasing debut at Navan where he was very good but then disappointed in the Grade 1 Novice Chase over Xmas where he was well beaten by Found A Fifty, The latter ran well yesterday in the Arkle when he finished behind Gaelic Warrior. I think that going up in trip might bring an improvement in him as long as he jumps soundly which isn’t always the case. He will be a major player in the race and has always ran well at the course which is a bonus.
Ginny’s Destiny represents the Paul Nichols yard and has been a revelation this season. He has followed a similar path to last year’s winner Stage Star. He has been racing four times at Cheltenham already this season and has won his last three starts which includes the Handicap Chase on Trials day off a 5lbs higher mark. He then followed up at the same course where he got lucky in my opinion when he held off the strong challenge from Grey Dawning who made a bad jumping mistake 2 out. He is a front runner and is also a solid jumper. His handicap form should not be underestimated as his trainer had shown last year with Stage Star.
Grey Dawning runs in this race instead of the Brown Advisory on Wednesday suggesting that Dan Skelton thinks he has a great chance of winning. He was well beaten on his debut behind Stay Away Fay but then won easily at Haydock and Warwick. He lost the race at Cheltenham as he blundered badly 2 out which eventually cost him any chance of winning the race despite the fact he ran on strongly up the hill. He isn’t a horse that I have warmed up to as he can make bad jumping mistakes as we have seen this season. The stable had 2 winners on Wednesday and I can expect horse to go off favourite at the off.
Iron represents the Oliver Greenall yard and he won the Martin Pipe last year. He made his chasing debut at Warwick last November where he looked very impressive. The then suffered a setback and hasn’t been seen since. The absence could be cause for concern but he looks like a high class in the making last year and I will be surprised if he can’t make the frame. He might be inexperienced but they will have him spot on for the big day. I think he is overpriced at 6-1 currently in the market. Of the rest I will give small each way squeaks to Djelo and the old boy Sharjah as they can fill up the places if one of the market leaders have an off day!
Selection -Iroko 13-2
2.10 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle
Despite the reduction in distance to 3 miles ,this race is still a good test of stamina. These days it is attracting quality horses. The younger generation seems to have taken over since nine of the last twelve winners were aged under seven. It is a very tough race to solve due to its competitive nature and trainers setting up plot jobs. Six of the last eight winners have been trained in Ireland though it was a 1-2-3 for the Brits two years ago. 11 of the past 13 winners were rated between 138 – 148.
It’s not a race that has been kind to punters in recent years as only two fave have won in the last eleven renewals and in that same period more than half of them were priced at double digit odds. These days you tend to look at those lightly raced hurdlers and those who are relatively unexposed over a staying trip. Focus on those horses that are aged between six and eight. Horses wearing tongue tie have been in vogue in this race.Good Time Johnny was one of just four horses to wear a tongue-tie last year and became the seventh winner in the past eight years to wear one (all Irish-trained winners, the exception being Third Wind). During those past eight years, only 22% of runners (41/186) wore a tongue-tie, so seven winners is some return.
Gordon Elliot is a trainer that likes to target this race and he has a fabulous record in it. He has saddled three winners and had also a further six runners ti finish in the first five home. Do take note of the horses he run in this race. One stat that I like I this race is that Elliot’s three winners have all wore headgear and tongue tie.
The most successful trainer in race still remains Jonjo O’Neil with four wins to his name. JP Mcmanus has won the race on five occasions and 2 of those were trained by Jonjo. Fergal O’Brien had 4 runners in the last 7 years and he has twice saddled up the runner up. Nicholls horses like to get placed too as seven of his 18 runners have finished between 2nd and 5th.
Selection -Icare Allen 9-1
2.50 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)
The Ryanair is run over 2m4f and has always been a very competitive race. The nature of the race is changing these days as we see more and more top class horses running. Willie Mullins has won five of the last 8 renewals such has been his domination in the race. Fifteen of the 19 winners had won at Cheltenham before as had 11 runners-up so previous course form is a big prerequisite. It’s noteworthy how well front runners have done in this race over the years too.
It pays to focus on the top end of the market as 12 of the last 14 Grade 1 winners were either fave or 2nd fave. The best individual guide has been the King George VI Chase as eight of the last 16 Ryanair winners ran at Kempton on Boxing Day and another was second in the King George the previous season. Twelve of the last 16 winners had already won a Grade 1 race. Before Vautour’s devastating performance in this race in 2016 the Irish were 0/32 but they have since won 7 of the last 8 renewals which is a remarkable turnaround for stat lovers!
Envoi Allen is the defending champion and heads the betting after the deluge of rain on Tuesday. I always have a soft spot for this horse and have followed him since his first race. He won the ballymore for us in impressive fashion in 2020 but then fell in the Marsh a year later when odds on fave. He was sent then to the Champion Chase where he didn’t run too badly to finish 3rd behind Energumene. And last year he won the Ryanair by defeating Shishkin in a thrilling finish. He made his seasonal debut at Punchestown in the Champion Chase where he finished third but he made a few jumping mistakes on the day. And then he lost his Down Royal invincibility (won 4 races before) when he was narrowly beaten by Gerri Colombe. He showed a marked improvement on the day and travelled with plenty of zest. He hasn’t been seen since and he has been kept fresh for this race . And he is a horse that runs really well when fresh as we have seen last year. He also has course form and is a three time festival winner. He normally comes alive at the track.
Banbridge is the JP O’Brien horse in the race and won the Martin Pipe at the course two years ago. He was pulled out of the Turners last year due to unsuitable ground but then went on to win the grade 1 Manifesto at Aintree. He has been seen only once this season and it was a successful return when he won the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton. He defeated Pic D’Orhy on the day and that form was given a solid boost when the latter won the Ascot Chase. His chance will reside on how the ground is before the start of the race. At the time of writing it is very soft and he will like decent ground. If you fancy his chances I will recommend to wait nearer race time.
Stage Star is the Paul Nichols runner in the race and he won the Turners last year. He defied logic when he made his re appearance in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase off a mark of 155! He was then pulled up in a similar contest in November but the ground was very heavy on the day and the jockey took good care of the horse. He goes particularly well after a break and his trainer is pretty bullish about his chances in the race. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him especially if the ground is drying out a little bit. Of the others I will give small each way chances to Fugitif and Capodanno , who might run into a place.
Selection – Envoi Allen 9-2
3.30 Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1)
This is one of the four Championship races of the festival and feature race on Day Three. We have seen some greats like Baracouda, Inglis Drever and the mighty Big Bucks win this race over the years. Recently the race has been mainly dominated by second season hurdlers with seven of the last nine winners or 13 of the past 23 winners falling into that category. Graded novice hurdle form from the previous spring is often key.
Eight of the past 17 winners have ran in the Cleeve Hurdle on their previous start while 16 of the past 27 winners had won or placed at a previous festival. No five year old has ever won this race since it was introduced at the festival. We had a proper trends buster in Sire Du Berlais winning at the age of 11 last season. This was also a race that was favourable to the market leaders up until 2015 where we started to see big priced winners at big odds such as Lisnagar Oscar, Sire Du Berlais and Flooring Porter.
Teahupoo heads the market and represents the Gordon Elliot yard. We backed him last year when he was third in the race. He only raced once this season and he won the Hatton’s Grace where he burst the bubble of Impaire Et Passe. He stayed really well that day and showed a nice turn of foot. He is versatile with regards to the ground and remains unexposed over a staying trip.
Crambo is the new kid on the block and hails from the Fergal O’Brien yard. He looks like he has improved from last season. He made a winning reappearance when he won a handicap hurdle at Aintree and he was then stepped up in trip at Haydock where he ran an eye catching race.He then broke my heart in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot where he just got the better of the legend Paisley Park in a thrilling finish. He has been aimed at this race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win. He is another second season hurdler who is on the up and he will be in the mix.
Noble Yeats hails from the Emmet Mullins yard and has Harry Cobden booked. He won the Grand National in 2022 and finished fourth in last year’s Gold Cup. He made his seasonal debut at Limerick where he was runner up to Sa Majeste. He then ran in the Cleeve on Trials Day where he got the better of Paisley Park in the dying strides in receipt of 6lbs. He will need to improve again to confirm the form and would have had a better chance if this race was ran on Tuesday on heavy ground.
Sir Gerhard is a two time Cheltenham Festival winner and reverts back to hurdles since he didn’t enjoy chasing. He won a conditions race at Punchestown on New Years eve and that win came over 2m3f. He does have stamina to prove but he has the class to overcome the obstacles. He is a lightly raced horse and is also versatile regarding the ground. He is one horse that can’t be underestimated as Willie Mullins will have him primed for this race for which he has been kept fresh.
Paisley Park is a legend of the game and I don’t even know where I start with him! I started backing him 3 days before Xmas in 2018 and I was taken by how good he looked in the paddock that day. Aidan Coleman rode him and he was around the 8-1/9-1 mark. And 6 years later the old boy is still running at the highest level and still performing with enormous credit. He hasn’t won this season but has been the bridesmaid on each of the three occasions where he was narrowly beaten. He was also conceding a penalty on two occasions. He seemed to enjoy his racing again this year and it will be great for the sport if he could win at Cheltenham for one last time. I have backed him each way as always since he owes me nothing. I will also give each way shouts to a previous winner of the race in Flooring Porter who could sneak in the places. I can’t see Sire Du Berlais repeating last year’s heroics and he is a year older as well.
Selection :Sir Gerhard 7-1 & Paisley Park 14-1
4.10 Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase
This is one of the trickiest handicap races in the festival and one that hasn’t been too kind to punters in recent years. It’s a big lottery race and you need some luck in running too. Sixteen winners have been sent off at 20-1 or bigger in the last 34 years. Novices have a very good record in this race and four of the previous six winners were novices. So pay attention to the unexposed horses lining in this field.Second Season chasers that are lightly raced and who are opened to more improvement have done really well in this race.
6 of the past 8 winners were in their first or second season over fences while no fewer than 13 of the past 19 winners had run nine times or less as a chaser. Look out for French bred horses in race as they have a great record having been successful on nine occasions since 1999 and they had 12 runner up positions when they have not won. Being on a horse that likes to race prominently is also preferred. Once again it paid to be in the front rank throughout in a 2m4f/2m5f handicap chase at Cheltenham.
This is a good race to follow some trainers as they like to target this race. David Pipe and Martin Pipe have won 7 of the last 26 renewals. David Pipe’s three wins have been in the last thirteen years. He has also saddled the second, third, fourth and fifth in the last eight years. Venetia Williams also has an outstanding record in race. She won it three times and had 6 other places horses from 22 runners. Most of her winners tend to go off at big prices too so it’s worth paying attention to what she runs here. All three of her winners in this race had course form to their name too. Another trainer to note is Nicky Henderson who has won it four times but he has no runner in race this year.
Selection: Theatre Man 4-1 and Arctic Bresil 14-1
4.50 Ryanair Mares Novices Hurdle (Grade 2)
This is going to be the 9th renewal of this race and it is one ran over 2m1f. As for the race itself, Willie Mullins has trained the first five winners and horses with experience boast a very good record. He has also saddled no fewer than 10 mares in the last 2 renewals without success. Five of the last seven winners have run at least four times over hurdles and four of those were second season novices.
Pay attention to those horses who have won a Graded race on their previous start and those who are unbeaten during the current season. Four of Willie Mullin’s winners were all French bred mares who had started their careers in France. It’s important to note any mare who has a French pedigree, ran in France whether on the flat, hurdles or point to point that is trained by Willie Mullins. All eight winners of this race to date were aged either five or six with the first four being five year olds and the past four winners being six. This race resolves among the big three namely Jade De Grugy, Brighterdaysahead and Dysart Enos. The dogs have verb barking for few weeks about Brighterdaysahead and Gordon rates him highly but I am siding with Jade De Grugy but there won’t be much between the top 3 in the market.
Selection – Jade De Grugy 3-1
5.30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
This race is the only one reserved for amateurs riding in a handicap. It’s another lottery race with a big field. This is a thorough test of stamina that can often become like a war of attrition. Look out for those horses that are ridden patiently as the prominent runners get racing quite early and they set up the race for those hold up performers. A positive last run is becoming increasingly more significant with eight of the past 13 winners having recorded a top three finish on their previous start. Remarkably, eight of the last 13 winners all wore headgear of some sort. So pay attention to those horses wearing headgear as it has been a profitable system in recent years just like the Ultima handicap on Tuesday. Horses aged 7/8 that have raced in the top half of the handicap have won eight of the last ten runnings.
Gordon Elliot had won the twice in the previous seven years but we can make this three as his Mount Ida won in 2021 when he was suspended. He has also been responsible for a further six horses to have finished second or third in recent years. All his winners have all been wearing a tongue tie! The likes of Donald Mccain (especially those in Trevor Hemmings colours) , and those in JP Mcmanus silks (3 wins to his name ) need to be followed closely.
Another trainer worth noting is Venetia Williams who has won the Plate three times in the past and she won it with Chambard at 40-1 two years ago. She also had a 33-1 second in same race in 2021 with Cloudy Glen. Paul Nichols has a shocking record in race having only 1 horse placed from 22. This has not been Paul Nicholls’ race at all, however, with just two placed horses from 24 starters. Jockey bookings is also something I tend to look at in this race. Jamie Code has ridden the winners of this race on 4 occasions and pay attention to what he rides especially if it is an Elliot horse.
Selection :Cool Survivor 10-1