Live coverage as prime minister risks Tory wrath by sharing platform with Labour, Lib Dems and Greens, and Vote Leave warns of £2.4bn EU bill
Today’s morning briefing: Vote Leave threatens £2.4bn EU bill for Britain
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Lunchtime summary
IFS says Gove wrong to say leaving EU could boost NHS spending
6.04pm BST
It has come to our attention that Vote Leave appear to have paid for online advertising to ensure that their campaign website regarding registration is promoted ahead of the Government website that directly enables citizens to register to vote. The Vote Leave campaign site presents users with a form to fill in their contact details and then click on a button which clearly says ‘Register to Vote’. This website, however, does not enable people to register, and therefore could easily mislead people in to thinking that they have secured their ballot paper. By securing a ranking for this site higher than the official registration site, Vote Leave’s underhand tactics could disenfranchise citizens without their knowledge who have in good faith used this site to try to register.
Leading pro-Brexit politicians are confident Britain could do a quick deal with the EU to keep trade flowing. But even if that happens, Britain’s rights at the WTO will be in “a vacuum”.
“I don’t see how just negotiating with the EU is going to obviate the necessity to establish what the parameters are between the UK and all other WTO members,” Azevedo said.
5.27pm BST
The smart reaction to today’s YouGov poll (pdf) is to remember that polls aren’t always a reliable guide to an election. This, from Ian Leslie, is shrewd.
These polls forcing me to consider that Leave might win, against all instinct. Now I'm wondering whether Miliband will have to resign as PM.
Poll scepticism sensible, but smthng afoot: Leave's forward march now seen in: ICM online (twice); ICM phone; Opinium; YouGov; TNS
4.30pm BST
Vote Leave is claiming today that the UK could have to pay an extra £2.4bn into the EU budget to help pay for a “black hole” that has emerged in the accounts. (See 9.16am.)
Full Fact, the fact checking website, has looked at this and concluded that Vote Leave is wrong. It says:
In December 2014, the EU did owe £19.4bn in payments to support poorer regions. But the UK won’t be forced to make any additional payments beyond its regular contribution to the EU budget.
4.23pm BST
The Loughborough University Centre for Research in Communication and Culture has published its latest analysis of EU referendum reporting. As it explains in its news release, it found that Labour is being “practically ignored”.
Labour voices are present in less than 4% of TV coverage and just 8% of print coverage of the referendum, and no labour politicians are amongst the top 10 most frequently reported individuals.
The party’s media presence in this latest period of analysis (19 May to 1 June 2016) is even lower than the first phase of the study (6-18 May), with the already low number of television appearances dropping by over 40%.
Labour is almost invisible in the UK media coverage of the EU referendum. This is in part due to the dominance of the Conservative ‘blue on blue’ conflict, but will also be down to Jeremy Corbyn’s reluctance to share a platform with the Tories.
With many believing it will be the Labour voters who ultimately decide the vote on the 23rd, their party’s lack of visibility across press and television will be a major concern.
3.44pm BST
Here is Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor, commenting on the IFS statement. He made his statement in a press notice issued by Britain Stronger in Europe.
This unprecedented intervention from one of the country’s most respected economic experts shows that the Leave campaign do not have a credible economic plan for Britain’s future.
The IFS are clear – leaving the EU’s Single Market would leave us spending less on public services such as the NHS, or taxing more, or borrowing more.
3.39pm BST
In his Sky News interview with Faisal Islam on Friday, Michael Gove, the justice secretary, claimed that the Institute for Fiscal Studies has backed claims that leaving the EU could free up more money for the NHS. Gove said:
There are billions of pounds that we send to the European Union every year and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has pointed out that if we took that money back we could spend it on our NHS.
Michael Gove claimed on Friday that the IFS had said that leaving the EU would free up £8bn to spend on the NHS. We have not said that. We have looked carefully at the likely public finance implications. We conclude that the net UK contribution to the EU over the next few years is indeed likely to be about £8bn a year, £8bn which would become available for other things were we to leave. However we also point out that even a small negative effect of just 0.6% on national income from leaving the EU would damage the public finances by more than that £8bn. There is virtual unanimity among economic forecasters that the negative economic effect of leaving the EU would be greater than that. That is why we conclude that leaving the EU would not, as Michael Gove claims we said, leave more money to spend on the NHS. Rather it would leave us spending less on public services, or taxing more, or borrowing more.
2.54pm BST
People are trying to sell it in terms of sales of two rival products. They want to say that we are selling democracy - because that’s what we believe in - and they say that they are selling economics, because they think they have the stronger hand there. That is basically because on the Remain side of the argument, they totally get that we are winning all the democratic points. What they say is that that sacrifice of democracy is worth it for the economic gain.
What I want to say to you today is that that argument is morally and practically and completely wrong, and that democracy is in fact the vital ingredient of economic success. It is irreplaceable and we need to restore it because it is the absence of democratic control that is having all sorts of disastrous consequences for Britain and for the whole of the EU.
Asked @jeremycorbyn's office why @HarrietHarman was on cross party platform but the Leader wasn't? In turn they question why she *was* there
The pound will go where it will over the short term. But, believe me, in the long term you can look forward to fantastic success for this country. I think the pound’s value will depend entirely on the strength of the UK economy.
I negotiated for the first time a reduction in the European Union spending, not just over one year but over six years. The amount being spent on the budget is coming down, not up. Anything the European Union spends has to be within the ceiling of the budget commitment that I negotiated ...
Our rebate is something that can only be given away if the British prime minister agrees. I can only be changed by unanimity.
As far as I can see under article 122 of the treaty, there is absolutely no way that we will be able in the future to be able to insulate ourselves from such calls on the British taxpayer.
When you look at the deficits in the southern regions of the EU, when you look at the budgetary problems they have got, there is no doubt in my mind, as they go forward trying to keep this thing together, they are going to be calling on all EU members to try to do that and they have solid treaty basis upon which to do so.
People saying, as some of the Leave campaign did the other day, “I’m fed up of hearing from experts” - Would you build a bridge without listening to expert engineers or architects?
I think the people of this country have had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.
On the fact about Schengen and terrorism, I was quoting Ronald Noble, who was the head of Interpol, and it is a view that is reinforced by Richard Dearlove, who used to be in charge of MI6, and Mike Hayden, who was in charge of the CIA - three key experts in dealing with terrorism, all of whom say that the borderless Schengen area facilitates the work of terrorists.
Even more important than avoiding future dangers is countering the dangers which are clear and present. And That means freeing ourselves from the rogue European court of justice.
The European Court of Justice isn’t a normal court of the kind we in Britain understand. It’s not overseen by independent judges who are there to interpret and enforce laws agreed by a democratically elected legislature.
I would like to issue a challenge to the media: please start covering this referendum campaign rather than treating it as a Tory leadership contest.
2.09pm BST
Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, has been tweeting about her reasons for supporting Remain. She will be one of three politicians arguing for Remain in the ITV debate on Thursday.
1/4 Those of us who don't want to turn our back on the world have a big job of work to do in next two weeks...
2/4 ...I believe in independence - passionately - but also in independent countries working together for good of all...
3/4 ...working together to protect workers, tackle climate change, preserve peace and guarantee our freedom of movement...
4/4 ...the Nigel Farage/Boris Johnson view of the world is not mine nor, I believe, that of majority of Scots. Let's show that. #VoteRemain
1.42pm BST
Q: Aren’t you encouraging hatred and bigotry?
Farage says the political class has lied to people about Europe for 40 years. He says Anna Soubry, a business minister, recently said trade with the EU could dry up if the UK left the EU. That’s rubbish, he says. Just go to the supermarket this afternoon and look at all the goods from the EU on sale, he says.
1.40pm BST
Q: If an EU army is formed, will our army and nuclear weapons be included?
Farage says if he could prove that, he would win the referendum easily. But he says that two years ago when he debated Nick Clegg, Clegg says Farage was a fantasist because he warned about this. But now it is happening. They are due to discuss it after the referendum. Jean-Claude Juncker has said he wants one.
1.37pm BST
Farage says, even if we went back to having to pay tariffs to trade with the EU, those tariffs would be so low that the savings from not having to contribute to the EU’s budget would compensate.
1.36pm BST
Farage says he is bored with hearing people say the EU needs to be reformed. The constitutional convention was supposed to achieve this. One of the debates was about whether it should be democratised. But that option was utterly rejected, he says.
1.34pm BST
Q: [From a Cornish fisherman] Would we get back control of our water?
Yes, says Farage. He says he attended a meeting recently with Norwegian fishermen. Their fishing waters extend for 200 miles, and their fishing industry is booming, he says.
1.31pm BST
Q: If we bring in visas for EU citizens, they will retaliate, won’t they? For a family of four, going to Spain could cost £150.
Farage says he does not seen any need for visas for travel or holidays. But he does see the need for work permits.
1.27pm BST
Q: Will Britain have a veto on Turkey joining the EU?
Farage says Cameron has said he wants Turkey to join the EU. He has got a veto. But it is not one he would ever use.
1.25pm BST
Q: [From a woman living in France] What compensation will people like us get if we lose our pensions and free health care if the UK leaves the EU?
Farage says the caller has been influenced by a scare campaign. He says the UK government pays the woman’s pension, so that will not be affected. And she will still get health care provided the UK continues to pay, as it does now. That will not change.
1.23pm BST
Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is on the the World at One’s referendum call now.
He says even if the EU does not offer the UK a trade deal, the UK would still be better off out.
1.20pm BST
Martin Lewis, who founded the MoneySavingExpert.com website, has just been on the World at One. He said that he personally was backing Remain because he is risk averse, and he thinks Brexit is the riskier option. But other people will take a different approach to risk and may want to vote differently, he said.
He said there were more shades of grey here than on EL James’s bookshelf.
Not sure which way to vote in the EU referendum? Read this from finance expert @MartinSLewis on why he's voting IN: https://t.co/rQof2uI88g
I’m generally risk-averse, and that pushes me just towards an IN vote for safety, maybe 55% to 45%. Yet just as my dream holiday isn’t necessarily yours, no more is my choice of what’s right a call for you to follow me.
1.02pm BST
George Osborne, the chancellor, has been in Northern Ireland today campaign for Britain to remain in the EU. He went to Warrenpoint Port in Co Down, which is a stone’s throw from the Irish Republic, to warn about the implications of Brexit. Pointing to the Carlingford Lough waterway which separates the two countries, he said:
Let’s be clear, if we quit the EU then this is going to be the border with the European Union.
And all the things that those that want to quit the EU claim would happen - ie new immigration checkpoints, border controls and an end to free movement - that has a real consequence, and there would have to be a real hardening of the border imposed either by the British government or indeed by the Irish government ...
12.43pm BST
Here’s a Guardian video about trying to get young people in Tower Hamlets to take an interest in the EU referendum.
12.41pm BST
Downing Street has confirmed there will be no cabinet tomorrow and cannot say whether there will be one next week. No reason has been given, but it may be a sign that relations have degenerated too badly for senior Conservatives to sit round the same table. Or Cameron may just feel that he and other cabinet ministers cannot save the time now the polls appear to be so tight in the EU referendum.
12.23pm BST
Vine plays Cameron a clip of a woman saying she wants to partly come out of the EU, but to stay in bits of it.
Cameron says he has some sympathy for her. He says Britain has a special status now, in the EU, but not in the euro or the Schengen area, he says.
12.21pm BST
Q: Staying in the EU won’t help us control immigration.
Cameron says leaving the EU would wreck the economy.
12.18pm BST
Q: Anna Soubry, the trade minister, said exports to the continent would fall to almost zero if we left the EU.
Cameron says it would all depend what trade deal we had with the EU.
12.15pm BST
Cameron says he does not accept his side is scaremongering.
Instead, there is a “legitimate raising of risks”, he says.
12.14pm BST
Cameron says organisations like the IMF and OECD are actually paid to warn governments of economic risks.
He says someone from Leave said the other day it was wrong to trust experts. (He is talking about Michael Gove.) But you would not build a bridge without listening to experts, he says.
12.09pm BST
David Cameron is now being interview by Jeremy Vine on Radio 2.
Q: Do you agree with what Sir John Major said about Boris Johnson?
11.58am BST
Q: Leave has taken the lead in polls, and the pound has crashed in value. Doesn’t that show that Cameron is right to say Leave is a threat to the economy.
Johnson says the value of the pound depends on the strength of the economy, and the economy will be stronger outside the EU. In the short term it can go where it wants. In the long term Britain will prosper, he says.
11.55am BST
Q: [From my colleague Anushka Asthana] Cameron says your policies would be like putting a bomb under the economy. Are you worried by the language being used. And what would be the impact on the economy of cutting immigration.
On the first point, Gove says they all believe in free speech. People can say what they like.
11.49am BST
Gove cites three key experts who say there is a real risk of remaining in the EU.
As the Labour peer Stewart Wood points out, this contrasts with the approach he took in the Sky News event on Friday.
Four days ago Michael Gove said "Britain has had enough of experts". Today his speech was almost solely a list of experts he agrees with.
11.45am BST
Q: [From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg] Aren’t you selling out the truth? You says we will be forced to pay more to the EU. But you know the PM has done deals to stop the UK having to pay for eurzone bailouts.
Johnson says there is a black hole in the EU budgets, which means the UK will have to pay £2.4bn more.
Johnson's basic comeback to Qs on fact that we're exempt from paying into eurozone bailouts - don't believe Cameron's deal, treaties supreme
11.42am BST
The panel are now taking questions, from journalists and from workers at the warehouse.
Q: [From a worker] If we leave the EU, will EU migrants working here have to leave?
11.40am BST
Johnson says the UK gave up its veto over further eurozone integration as part of David Cameron’s EU renegotiation.
If the UK stays in the EU, there is nothing we can do to protect this country from the biggest social change seen for a century - mass immigration, partly prompted by economic problems in the EU.
11.36am BST
Boris Johnson is speaking now.
He says they are at a warehouse distributing cleaning products. No one can say they are not running a clean campaign, he jokes.
11.32am BST
Michael Gove is speaking now.
He says the EU was formed for idealistic reason. He admires those reasons, he says.
11.26am BST
Longworth says companies like the EU because it is a source of cheap labour.
He says the single market is a “protectionist customs union”. We are better off out of it, he says.
11.24am BST
John Longworth, the former director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, is speaking now.
He says the EU works in the interests of Germany. If the UK stays in, Germany will benefit, he says.
Believe me - you don’t want to be in the room when that bomb goes off.
11.21am BST
11.19am BST
There is a live feed of the event at the top of the blog.
Gisela Stuart, the Labour MP, is speaking now. She says she is an immigrant. She is a beneficiary of an open system. But it is not right to have a system where politicians do not have control over their borders, she says.
11.13am BST
This is from the Telegraph’s Michael Deacon.
The Brexit campaign is getting serious: not only is Boris Johnson wearing a tie, he's actually knotted it pic.twitter.com/MpY39EDM9d
11.11am BST
The Vote Leave event is just starting. It’s in Stratford-upon-Avon, and the speakers are Boris Johnson, Gisela Stuart, Michael Gove and John Longworth.
11.09am BST
Here is the 38-page Britain Stronger in Europe dossier (pdf) that David Cameron was talking about earlier. It supposedly describes “four con tricks” Vote Leave are perpetrating.
11.03am BST
Here are some of the tweets Vote Leave have been posting in response to the Cameron/Harman/Farron/Bennett event.
We passed equal pay, sex discrimination & holiday pay act without any help from the EU. @HarrietHarman is talking Britain down #Voteleave
.@natalieben has repeatedly condemned the EU for lack of democracy and #TTIP #VoteLeave
.@natalieben do you admit that #TTIP poses a threat to the #NHS? Will you support EU when this goes through? pic.twitter.com/ZQQcezpkK6
The more losers the BSE campaign wheel out alongside Cameron the more they look like they are on a sinking ship
10.53am BST
The event is over. The Reuters feed shows Cameron hurrying off. He is not hanging around to gossip with Harman, Farron or Bennett.
It would have looked a bit more genuinely cross-party if Cameron had let Harman, Farron and Bennett answer some of the questions in the Q&A.
10.43am BST
Cameron winds up the event.
But Natalie Bennett comes forward. She says all the questions were about party splits. She urges the media to focus on the issues, and not on what is happening to the Tory party or the Labour party.
10.42am BST
Q: [From ITV’s Robert Peston] Isn’t Boris Johnson right to say what we pay to the EU will go up? The Labour leader isn’t here? Doesn’t that mean Labour is not committed to Remain?
Cameron says Labour is officially committed to remaining in the EU. He would be happy to share a platform with Jeremy Corbyn, he says.
10.38am BST
Q: [From Andy Bell, 5 News] Isn’t the case for Remain being lost in the Tory civil war? And what will you do to end it?
Cameron says he is going to focus on the facts. Today we have seen a broad alliance. People who would not normally be seen together, “be seen dead together on a platform”, all making the case for Remain.
10.36am BST
The speeches are over.
Cameron says they will take some questions.
10.32am BST
Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, is speaking now.
She says she wants to focus today on the environmental case for staying in the EU.
The environment doesn’t respect national borders. Birds migrate. Fish cross seas. Rivers merge. Oceans meet. Air pollution drifts. Natural resources are shared. Acid rain pours on everyone – not just the country responsible for the pollution. What one country does to its own environment can profoundly affect its neighbours – and those far beyond it. Some people think of environmental threats as a concern only for the few – but they matter to everyone. Take air pollution as just one example - it kills thousands every year and particularly affects the poorest, the oldest and the least healthy – It is an issue of inequality as much as it is of environmental protection.
And we know that action on the biggest threats to our environment can’t just be conducted from our own island – it has to be done internationally. And it is. Over the years, European Union membership has helped transform the UK’s natural environment.
10.30am BST
Harriet Harman is speaking now.
She says she wants people to know where Labour stands.
It’s not surprising that Labour supporters have struggled to catch a glimpse of why Labour backs the EU as the media has been dominated by the row in the Tory party.
Because we’re in the EU, people have better rights at work. The EU guarantees those rights. It’s the EU that made our governments pass laws to ensure employers give paid holiday, paid maternity leave, rights for part-timers. So long as we’re in the EU no Tory government can try and take those rights away.
I’m not going to be put off by people calling it “Project Fear”. I am fearful about jobs, and women’s rights at work, and I make no bones about it.
The leaders of the campaign that wants us to leave the EU say that they can’t guarantee that people wouldn’t lose their jobs - but it’s a risk worth taking. But it’s not their jobs at risk. We need more jobs not fewer. Let’s not make getting a job harder.
Immigration is a big issue so I want to put out some facts. There’s more immigration from outside the EU than people coming from other EU countries.
If you’re worried about the NHS - don’t blame immigrants. The person from Ireland, or Spain or Portugal is more likely to be the nurse at your bedside than queuing in A and E. So don’t blame the EU for problems in the NHS - that’s down to the government.
10.23am BST
Farron says the Vote Leave campaign has been particularly dishonest on the subject of public spending.
Their big red bus says you can save £350m a week, and then spend it all on the NHS. A complete con. And they’re still driving it round despite the figure being rubbished by every economist under the sun.
And it’s not just the NHS this made-up, magic money is spent on. This dossier shows they have made two dozen different spending commitments.
Another clear as day example of one of their cons was just this week. On Saturday, they said by 2020, we can give the NHS a £100 million per week cash injection. On Sunday, they said we wouldn’t leave the EU until after 2020. So where would this magic money come from? They are literally making it up as they go along, trying to con the British public along the way.
10.20am BST
Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, is speaking now.
He says he wants to put a positive case for the EU, but it is important to say that the Vote Leave case is based on lies, he says.
I believe in the positive case for Europe. But I cannot stand back and allow the leave campaign to guide us towards economic ruin, because of a campaign based on lies.
How betrayed will people feel if they vote to leave Europe based on the reasons presented by the Leave Campaign, only to see in the weeks, months and years that follow that those reasons were utter, invented rubbish.
10.17am BST
Cameron says Vote Leave have not explained what terms of access the UK would have to the EU market if it left.
They have offered many different models, he says.
One: there would be an immediate shock effect.
Almost everyone now agrees, from the Governor of the Bank of England to the IMF, the OECD to the Treasury, 9 in 10 economists to, yes, even some Leave campaigners, there would be an economic shock if we left Europe.
10.12am BST
David Cameron is speaking at the Britain Stronger in Europe event.
He says Britiain will be stronger if it stays in the EU.
10.08am BST
Here is the scene where David Cameron is about to share a platform with Harriet Harman, the former Labour deputy leader, Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, and Natalie Bennett, the Green leader, to make the case for staying in the EU.
9.54am BST
Here are the YouGov tables with full details of their poll (pdf).
Latest EU referendum poll: Leave leads by four points https://t.co/Sd2GpOktFt pic.twitter.com/w5Pzdc3Kdl
9.42am BST
Leanne Wood, leader of Plaid Cymru, has urged young people to make sure they are registered to vote before tomorrow, the final day for registration. She said:
The younger generation have most at stake in this referendum. It is today’s eighteen year olds and twenty-somethings who will live with the legacy of the outcome longer than any of us older people. To all of you - I urge you not to let others determine your future.
The fact that you can travel freely throughout the European Union to learn, to explore and broaden your horizons is cause for celebration.
9.26am BST
TNS has sent out more details of its poll. As Luke Taylor, head of social and political attitudes at TNS UK explains, the headline figures (Leave 43%, Remain 41%) only give Leave a lead because of the way the results have been weighted according to likelihood to turn out.
With the referendum less than a month away, we are now adjusting the voting intention for differential turnout. The support for ‘Remain’ looks to be softer than the support for ‘Leave’ and without this adjustment ‘Remain’ would have a three point lead over ‘Leave’. Whether or not ‘Remain’ supporters turn out will therefore be critical in the outcome.
9.16am BST
Boris Johnson has coined the most colourful soundbite of the morning. According to the Daily Telegraph, he is going to claim in his speech today that taxpayers face “a triple whammy of woe” if they stay in the EU.
The risks of remain are massive. Not only do we hand over more than £350 million a week to the EU, but if we vote to stay the British people will be on the hook for even more cash. It is a triple whammy of woe: the eurozone is being strangled by stagnation, unemployment and a lack of growth, it could explode at any time and we will be forced to bail it out.
The botched bureaucratic response to the migration crisis means the Eurocrats are demanding even more of our money. And now we find that there is a £20 billion black hole in the EU’s finances.
8.51am BST
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.
There are two polls out this morning showing Leave ahead.
EU refernedum poll:
Remain: 41% (-)
Leave: 45% (+4)
(via YouGov)
Chgs. from 30 - 31 May.
New @YouGov #Brexit poll shows big shift from Don't Knows to #VoteLeave in past week:
Remain: 41% (-)
Leave: 45% (+4)
Fieldwork. 1-3 June
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 41% (+3)
Leave: 43% (+2)
(via TNS, online / 19 - 23 May)
Pound hits 3-week low after new #Brexit polls show more people want to leave EU https://t.co/Saz1rlffJV pic.twitter.com/RVeHgiQOhV
8.35am BST
I’m now handing over the live blog to Andrew Sparrow, who’ll take you through the rest of the day. Thanks for reading and for the tweets and comments.
8.33am BST
David Cameron has taken to Twitter – as I believe journalists are obliged to describe it – to knock back claims by Vote Leave that Britain would be liable for a £2.4bn bill to the EU in the event of a win for Remain.
1/2. The Leave campaign is simply wrong to claim we will have to bailout Eurozone countries.
2/2. We are not part of Eurozone bailout schemes. We also have a veto over any EU budget increases.
The UK will not pay for future eurozone bailouts. This has already been agreed by EU leaders. In addition, the UK-EU deal from February, which will be implemented if the UK votes to stay in the EU, reinforces this and states that the UK would be reimbursed if the general EU budget is used for the cost of the eurozone crisis.
8.16am BST
Over on the business desk, my colleague Graeme Wearden is live blogging developments as the pounds slides following the poll boost for Brexit:
The pound is sliding this morning after a string of opinion polls gave the Brexit campaign a lead in the 23 June EU referendum.
Sterling tumbled in early trading, shedding more than 1.5 cents against the US dollar. It has hit a three-week low of $1.4355, down 1.1%.
Related: Pound slides after polls show Brexit campaign gaining ground - business live
8.10am BST
Robert Hutton at Bloomberg has bravely taken a look at what the polling in this referendum campaign might mean – or not mean – given the polling blip in the run-up to the Scottish referendum, and the wide-of-the-mark statistics that marked last year’s general election. Should we ignore the polls? Or if not, how much salt do we need to be pinching?
In any case, this quote by Joe Twyman, head of political polling at YouGov, has a ring of truth:
There’s a discrepancy in levels of motivation. There are millions of people who would walk barefoot across broken glass to vote to leave.
The Remain campaign doesn’t have people who feel the same way.
7.58am BST
After last week’s debate-separated-by-24-hours, in which Cameron and Gove endured separate grillings on Sky News, this week sees a similar set-up as the prime minister definitely does not face off with Nigel Farage in an ITV Q&A.
Screened live on ITV1 on Tuesday at 9pm, Cameron and Farage will appear individually in front of a studio audience of 200 people for 30 minutes of questions, moderated by Julie Etchingham.
7.45am BST
Ten trade union leaders, including the general secretaries of Unite, Unison, the GMB and Usdaw, have signed a letter to the Guardian today in support of Britain remaining in the EU and calling on their combined 6 million members to vote accordingly.
They say:
After much debate and deliberation we believe that the social and cultural benefits of remaining in the EU far outweigh any advantages of leaving …
Despite words to the contrary from figures like Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Gove, the Tories would negotiate our exit and, we believe, would negotiate away our rights. We simply do not trust this government if they are presented with an unrestricted, unchecked opportunity to attack our current working rights.
Related: Trade union members should vote to stay in the EU | Letter from Len McCluskey, Dave Prentis and others
7.26am BST
Matthew D’Ancona, in a new Guardian column this morning, says Cameron is wrong to say – as he did to the Mail on Sunday yesterday – that he would not sack Johnson and Gove if Remain wins the referendum:
It is one thing to be a conciliator; quite another to be a pushover. No structure of authority can long survive if there are not clear consequences for transgressions.
Let’s be frank: does Cameron really believe the Brexiteers will be as merciful to him if he loses? The hardcore of backbenchers who loathe him are longing for a confidence vote and a merciless battle to replace him with Johnson as soon as possible. This plan is all but public – demeaningly so for Cameron.
Related: If David Cameron wins the referendum, he must be ruthless with his Tory foes | Matthew d’Ancona
7.14am BST
Here’s an intriguing one: the BBC’s James Lansdale reports that a group of pro-EU MPs are investigating whether the House of Commons – which has a majority for Remain – could keep Britain inside the single market even in the event of a vote for Leave:
The BBC has learned pro-Remain MPs would use their voting power in the House of Commons to protect what they see as the economic benefits of a single market, which gives the UK access to 500 million consumers.
Staying inside the single market would mean Britain would have to keep its borders open to EU workers and continue paying into EU coffers.
6.52am BST
Good morning and welcome to the second week of our daily EU referendum coverage.
I’m kicking things off with the morning briefing to set you up for the day ahead and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
I think it’s dangerous for the leader of the Conservative party to give greater credence to minor parties such as the Greens and the Lib Dems.
It just makes them look as though they are major political players and as though they are leaders of national parties.
We’re not giving a blank cheque to the EU. We want a Europe where there is solidarity of socialist parties, trade unions, people who want to see a decent society, welfare state, NHS, full employment, decent rights at work.
Our special status in Europe means we are protected from paying in to eurozone bailouts, we have already cut the EU budget and we have a veto over it in future.
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.
The leave campaign appears to have picked up three percentage points. The potential in the leave campaign’s strategy is reflected in responses suggesting that two in five voters (41%) cite immigration as one of their two most important issues when deciding how to vote … Half of the 2,007 people surveyed said they believed immigration would be under better control if the UK did leave the EU .
You were about to strike your own small but vital blow for freedom and democracy – when you suddenly bottled it. You swerved; you shied; you jibbed; you baulked. You screwed up your eyes in the polling booth and you found yourself momentarily oppressed by the sheer weight of the Remain propaganda – all that relentless misery about this country and its inability to stand on its own two feet.
For reasons you secretly know were nonsensical, you decided to go for what the gloom-mongers had told you was the safer option. Nose held, eyes screwed tight, you voted for Remain. And now you understand why you feel that sense of morning-after shame and abject remorse: because the burble from the TV is informing you that Remain have won. Yes, by the narrowest margin you – and fellow last-minute swervers – have helped to keep us locked in the back of the minicab, with a driver who barely speaks English, going in a direction we don’t want to go.
As for the Leavers’ economic case, to quote Sarah Palin on Obama, it seems to amount to a lot of ‘hopey changey stuff’. There is a kind of derring-do, Dangerous Book For Boys spirit about Britannia unchained and going it alone. Won’t it be glorious? Yes, well the Charge of the Light Brigade was glorious in its own way.
On Remain-leaning days I fear the country charging into a field of economic disaster, a shredded flag aloft.
A wider diversity of pro-EU voices is urgently needed. This places a special responsibility on business leaders. Signing letters about the dangers of Brexit is not enough – every CEO ought to be speaking directly to their employees to spell out the personal consequences of leaving …
The EU referendum has split the Conservative party, polarised the country and stoked anti-establishment politics, but it has also encouraged democratic debate. Politicians must respond with facts and sound arguments. In an age of anti-politician sentiments, it is incumbent on business leaders to speak up, too. There is no more pressing issue for business than the UK’s membership of the EU. To stay silent would be grossly irresponsible.
I’m of the feeling to leave, but I’m probably a minority in the arts when I say that.
Expect Remain this week to strengthen economic case by switching from macro-economics to named businesses that will up sticks if a Brexit.
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