2016-05-09

Eurozone ministers have agreed to aim for a deal on Greece’s bailout, and a debt relief plan, by 24 May

Latest: Euclid Tsakalotos said debt relief talks have begun

Eurogroup proposing three-pronged approach to debt relief

Press conference highlights start here

Photos: Inside the eurogroup meeting

8.20pm BST

Long experience of the eurozone debt crisis means we shouldn’t get too excited tonight.

Today’s extraordinary meeting does seem to have made real progress, but the next two weeks could still see some turbulence. And Greece’s long-term economic prospects remain deeply troubled, even if it does get finally some debt relief.

“It was a very good Eurogroup for Greece and I think a very good Eurogroup for Europe.”

#Eurogroup sum up:underlining #Greek progress,starting debt relief talks- key date May 24.
Air of positivity BUT echo of extra measures

So, it looks like today's #Eurogroup was positive for #Greece, and went much better than expected. (Ofc, devil is in the details).

8.07pm BST

Over in Greece, prime minister Alexis Tsipras is welcoming the progress made in Brussels today.

Tsipras commends #Eurogroup's statement on "the road map" toward debt relief for #Greece as a "necessary act of solidarity from Europe".

PM Tsipras calls eurogroup decisions "very positive" _ struggling Greeks "deserve some good news" #Greece #Eurogroup

7.57pm BST

Paul Mason, the former Channel 4 News economics editor, has written about the Greek crisis for the Guardian tonight.

He argues that the call for Greek debt relief is part of a larger transformation in Europe:

So, now it’s no longer about austerity: there is a three-way battle for the soul of Europe; between a beleaguered centre that’s seeing its consent to govern drain away; a resurgent nationalist and racist right; and a modernised radical left. The Greek request for debt relief poses to the European centre the question: which side are you on?

Amid this, the resurgent radical left faces tough decisions of its own. To understand why, we have to understand the source of its recent strength. Podemos came out of the millions-strong indignados movement in 2011; Syriza expanded during the “occupation of the squares” the same year. The 188,000 people who joined the Labour party during and after Corbyn’s campaign are not just trade unionists and old lefties; at their core are student activists who learned their politics during occupation movement of 2010/11, and hordes of returning Greens. Sinn Fein’s transformation and growth in Ireland is likewise driven by a grassroots protest movement against water charges....

Related: The choice for Europe: rescue Greece or create a failed state | Paul Mason

6.59pm BST

The Greek finance ministry has issued an upbeat statement, saying that further austerity measures will not be required following today’s meeting:

review has been completed w/out additional measures, #greek finance ministry enthuses in briefing note after #eurogroup

Clear tt #europe doing upmost 2 avoid new #greek crisis giving gov leeway 2 say it has avoided new measures when it has passed hardest yet

6.58pm BST

Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras should be hot-footing it to the presidential palace within 30 minutes:

#Greece PM #Tsipras will meet with President Pavlopoulos at 9.30pm to brief him about the #Eurogroup outcome.

6.52pm BST

Euclid Tsakalotos concludes his press conference by saying he expects the IMF to come on board and support this deal. And all sides are confident that Greece can achieve its targets, meaning contingency measures may never be needed.

6.48pm BST

This is one reason the Greek side are happy tonight:

#Greece gov't already stresssing it will not have to legislate specific standby fiscal measures now, following outcome of #Eurogroup

6.43pm BST

The IMF was pleased that debt relief was discussed today, says Tsakalotos, although obviously it wants more debt relief for Greece than some countries.

6.42pm BST

Euclid Tsakalotos is now outlining the new plan for contingency measures (extra austerity, if needed)

If Greece misses its targets, then a presidential decree would enforce ‘across the line’ cuts, he says. The government could subsequently implement some different measures in a budget.

6.40pm BST

Greece's Tsakalotos on Eurogroup, says long-term debt relief criteria will offer markets clarity#Greece #Eurogroup pic.twitter.com/6ppcfnj1oY

6.38pm BST

Euclid Tsakalotos says there was a “very interesting exchange of views” on the issue of Greek debt relief today.

Ministers didn’t agree on everything, but there was a commitment to tackle the issue.

6.30pm BST

Tsakalotos says that Greece is relieved that its contingency measures is being used as the basis for discussions.

6.29pm BST

6.27pm BST

Hang on.... Euclid Tsakalotos, Greece’s finance minister, is giving a press conference now.

He being by telling reporters that

This was a very good eurogroup for Greece, and I think a very good eurogroup for Europe.

FinMin Tsakalotos: "This was a very good Eurogroup"#Greece #Eurogroup pic.twitter.com/S4qWM96IGH

6.24pm BST

Q: What happens if Greece does not legislate for extra contingency measures? And has the eurogroup made a big mistake by adding it at all?

No, it was a clever idea to bridge the difference between the eurogroup and IMF forecasts, Dijsselbloem replies to the second question. We need an insurance in case the pessimists (at the IMF) are right.

Dijsselbloem on contingencies: Greece will legislate on a mechanism, not specific measures #Greece #Eurogroup pic.twitter.com/7p2XObl0kV

6.19pm BST

Q: Do we need an agreement on the whole package, including debt relief, before the next tranche of aid is paid out?

No, it’s not necessary formally, or politically necessary either, says eurogroup chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem.

6.17pm BST

Finland’s Alex Stubb has tweeted that he’s ‘carefully optimistic’ that there will be a deal by the next meeting on 24 May.

#Eurogroup over. Constructive discussions on #Greece. Carefully optimistic about a deal in two weeks.

6.15pm BST

The IMF is “less optimistic, or more conservative if you will” about how Greece’s economy will perform by 2018, Jeroen Dijsselbloem says.

Thus, the extra contingency measures are needed, in case the Fund are right.

This is vintage Eurogroup: 'The IMF is less optimistic -- or more conservative if you will --'

6.12pm BST

Q: Are you ready to go ahead with the programme without the IMF (as Slovakia’s finance minister suggested earlier)

No, it’s not a possibility for the eurogroup as a whole, Dijsselbloem insists.

For the Eurogroup as a whole, no participation of #IMF in #Greece's program is not a possibility, #Eurogroup President says. #ec #ecb #esm

6.07pm BST

Q: What have you changed to Greece’s proposal for contingency measures in case it misses its fiscal targets?

We have accepted Greece’s proposal, but with a couple of new conditions to enforce it, Dijsselbloem says. They are

6.03pm BST

Today’s meeting was about opening the debate on Greek debt sustainability and considering the options, Jeroen Dijsselbloem continues, and also deciding what officials should start to work on.

6.02pm BST

Some instant reaction:

Commitment to provide #Greece with debt relief was in last summer's deal. Question isn't if it will happen, but how it will be structured

No detail from eurogroup, so no certainty on continued IMF involvement or contingency measures

6.01pm BST

Onto questions.....

Q: You are only proposing long-term debt relief for Greece after 2018, if Greece hits its commitments. Will that really satisfy the IMF?

6.01pm BST

5.59pm BST

Now Klaus Regling, who runs the eurozone bailout fund (the EFSF), is speaking, and confirms that Greek debt relief talks began today.

The liquidity situation in Greece is getting tighter, he warns, and important debt repayments are coming up (Athens owes €3.5bn in July).

#Regling saying debt relief talks were initiated for 1st time today #Eurogroup #Greece

5.56pm BST

Commissioner Pierre Moscovici is now speaking.

He says that ensuring the sustainability of Greece’s debt is a “fundamental element” of the agreement reached last summer.

5.55pm BST

The Eurogroup’s aim is to make Greece’s debts sustainable in the long term, Jeroen Dijsselbloem adds.

@J_Dijsselbloem :..to ensure that for the coming decades #Greece stays on track & ensure debt sustainability #Eurogroup

5.52pm BST

5.52pm BST

Dijsselbloem turns to debt relief.

Today’s eurogroup meeting held a “first round” of talks about Greek debt relief, he says.

#Eurogroup sets out sequenced approach on debt.

short term : possibilities to optimise debt management, reducing cost for Greek side

Possible additional debt measures at end of bailout programme, so in coming decades Greece "stays on track," but decision only taken in 2018

5.45pm BST

The head of #Eurogroup @J_Dijsselbloem says contingency mechanism will be legislated upfront, auto triggeres if #Greece misses targets

5.45pm BST

5.45pm BST

On the contingency measures, Dijsselbloem says the eurogroup took the last proposal from the Greek government and ‘enforced it’ – or amended it – to make sure revenues can be recovered if Athens fails to achieve its fiscal targets.

Those measures will be “legislated upfront” and kick in automatically, Dijsselbloem says.

5.42pm BST

The press conference is starting now....

Jeroen Dijsselbloem says the eurogroup discussed three things

Greek parliament vote last night shd pave way to completion of first review of 86bn euro bailout: @J_Dijsselbloem

5.39pm BST

The next two weeks could be quite tense as Greece and her creditors try to carve up a staff level agreement.

Eurogroup: it is all about the "coming days" #Greece

5.36pm BST

Slovakia’s Peter Kažimír says today’s meeting was much better than he had expected:

#Eurogroup over. Much better than expected. #Greece #eurozone

5.33pm BST

The eurogroup press conference will be broadcast here.

5.31pm BST

EC vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis is tweeting that the meeting has ended.

He says eurogroup ministers welcomed the package of measures which Greece has agreed.

#Eurogroup welcomes the policy package. Staff level agreement 2 be finalised in coming days, including the contingency mechanism #Greece 1/2

#Greece debt: short, medium and long term debt measures to be discussed. EWG to report back to 24 May #Eurogroup 2/2

5.29pm BST

The eurogroup meeting on Greece has ended, we hear, so the press conference should begin shortly.

5.28pm BST

Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, warns that Greece could be driven into default unless its creditors compromise.

He writes:

This was a situation only narrowly averted last summer and on his way into Monday’s meeting, Austria’s finance minister, Hans Jörg Schelling, said: “I don’t think anyone wants a repeat of summer 2015.”

Schelling spoke for many, including David Cameron, who could certainly do with Greece being out of the headlines for the next six weeks. Britain’s referendum means that the eurozone has to act with unaccustomed speed and sort Greece out within a fortnight. Otherwise the issue will be parked until after June 23 and another long, hot summer will loom large.

Related: Greece's latest financial emergency is both tragic and absurd

4.58pm BST

The Greek government will face serious criticism back home unless it gets a substantial deal on debt relief soon.

Blanka Kolenikova, senior analyst at IHS Country Risk, says it could even collapse:

The government’s public support will depend on progress on debt relief, which IHS maintains will take the form of extended maturities and fixing/lowering the interest rates applied to official loans. The SYRIZA-led government had campaigned strongly on an anti-austerity platform before assuming power in 2015. Achieving some degree of debt relief therefore represents a crucial life line for the administration, especially given the cost-cutting measures it has been forced to pass.

Failed debt negotiations could trigger further and more violent protests (violence has so far been caused primarily by anarchist groups). Significantly increased civil disorder would put pressure on the leftist government to resign. An early election would not favour SYRIZA and would risk a political stalemate, without any party able to form a stable majority government. In turn, this would reduce Greece’s ability to pass bailout-related measures and threaten its ability to secure future releases of official funding.

4.23pm BST

The Wall Street Journal has seen the Greek debt sustainability analysis drawn up by Greece’s creditors, which is on the table in Brussels today.

It shows remarkable uncertainty over Greece’s ability to reduce its debt pile.

Greece’s debt may rise to as much as 258.3% of gross domestic product by 2060 or fall to as low as 62.6% of GDP, according to an official analysis of the country’s debt trajectory, a wide divergence that indicates difficult discussions ahead on the possibility of debt relief.

Blimey https://t.co/91MyAVVKGR

4.05pm BST

3.52pm BST

Hopes of a breakthrough deal between Greece and creditors on debt relief have been dashed today, although in truth is never looked like (as we warned in the opening post).

Instead, May 24 has been inked in as the next in a long line of Greek deadlines. That gives the eurozone two weeks to achieve three things:

The reforms voted through yesterday are important parts of a major reform effort which will help #Greece back to growth. #Eurogroup

2.50pm BST

Europe’s finance chiefs are now gathered inside the EU council building to discuss Greece’s bailout programme.

These photos have just arrived, showing ministers in good spirits:

2.38pm BST

Here’s the Slovakian position:

Lots of work has been done and I’m hearing we are finally close to the conclusion of the 1st review #Greece

When it comes to #IMF role, I can easily live with IMF not chipping in with cash & but stay as technical assistance, that's more important

2.38pm BST

Irish finance minister Michael Noonan says his country still opposes cutting Greece’s debt pile.

Instead, Ireland favours giving Greece debt relief by extending the repayment dates and cutting interest rates.

2.27pm BST

Finland’s Alex Stubb is also playing down expectations for today’s meeting:

Finland's Alexander Stubb: "Don't expect any miracles today" #Greece #Eurogroup @alexstubb pic.twitter.com/CkLtjTn0KB

2.15pm BST

Germany’s finance minister is also defending Greece’s three bailout programmes:

#Schaueble: Someone needs to be more honest to the Greek ppl about the philosophy of bailouts - it's to help them get on their own feet.

2.10pm BST

Austria’s finance minister, Hans Jörg Schelling, speaks for us all:

Austrian FinMin #Schelling at #Eurogroup: I don't think anyone wants a repeat of summer 2015. We're here to find solutions. #Greece

2.09pm BST

2.05pm BST

May 24th has just been inked in as the next deadline in the Greek debt saga.

Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has just told reporters that he hopes to make progress today, but no financial decision.

*SCHAEUBLE: NO FINAL DECISION TODAY GREECE
*SCHAEUBLE: CONFIDENT ABOUT GREECE DEAL IN MAY #greece

2.00pm BST

Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem says that he hope to reach an agreement with Greece by May 24, when ministers hold their next scheduled meting.

'We will only have a first discussion... what, when, if and how debt sustainability could take place' - Dijsselbloem. More on 24 May.

1.56pm BST

Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem has just warned that a final decision on Greek’s bailout, and debt relief, is not likely today.

He just arrived at the eurogroup meeting in Brussels, and spoke to reporters.

We’re definitely going to discuss it.

We’ll discuss when, if, under what conditions this could take place. Is it necessary?

EUROGROUP POLITICAL AGREEMENT ON GREECE "DIFFICULT", NEED MORE TIME TO MULL GREECE CONTINGENCY MECHANISM PROPOSAL -EU SOURCES - MNI

Debt sustainability what when if and how discussion today- will come back in a later stage says @J_Dijsselbloem pic.twitter.com/5PKRKYozll

@J_Dijsselbloem sounding very lukewarm on debt relief for #Greece: if not when and doesn't expect conclusions today.

1.33pm BST

Italy’s finance minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, says ministers will not consider cutting the face value of Greece’s debts:

*PADOAN: GREEK DEBT HAIRCUT IS NOT ON THE TABLE AT EUROGROUP

1.26pm BST

Pierre Moscovici also denies that the eurogroup is backtracking on its commitment to debt relief.

With progress made on reforms and the contingency measures, attention can now turn to debt, he says.

1.18pm BST

European commissioner Pierre Moscovici has just arrived at the eurogroup meeting (for the second time - he must have sneaked out and in again).

“We should today recognise that this effort has have been taken....

It represents a very strong amount of measures - and with that, Greece will be on this way to recover growth.”

I hopes today that we will set the framework for a global deal, a demanding deal. That’s what the commission believes, and we believe it’s possible.

1.05pm BST

Spain’s man in Brussels today, Luis de Guindos, says he’s optimistic of a deal between Greece and creditors soon:

Spain's De Guindos hopeful-ish at Eurogroup: 'Differences we hope to close and to arrive at a political agreement for the next steps'

12.48pm BST

You can watch the arrivals in Brussels on the EbS service, here:

LIVE Eurogroup meeting Arrivals

12.47pm BST

Slovakia’s finance minister, Peter Kažimír, tweets that he expects a ‘debate’ on Greece’s progress.

He was one of Athens’ toughest critics during last year’s bailout dramas.

En route to #Brussels to meet #Eurogroup colleagues and discuss progress made by #Greece, debate our way forward

12.38pm BST

German government spokesman Steffen Seibert has tried to pour cold water on hopes of a Greek debt relief deal today.

Nothing can be discussed until Greece has proved that its economic reforms are satisfactory, Seibert told a press conference this morning. More here

12.31pm BST

Back in Brussels, officials are getting ready for ready for talks on how to make Greece’s debts more sustainable.

Euro zone finance ministers will start talks on Monday on how to reprofile Greek debt to make future annual servicing costs manageable for Athens despite opposition from Germany, which does not believe any relief isneeded, euro zone officials said.

The International Monetary Fund believes that Athens must get debt relief for its economy to develop and wants the discussions to focus on capping Greece’s annual debt servicing costs at around 15% of GDP or less.

12.07pm BST

This sudden political crisis in Austria threatens to overshadow today’s Eurogroup meeting.

Perhaps it might also encourage eurozone finance ministers to make some progress on Greece, to show populist voices that Europe can work.....

I willing to bet that Hans Jörg Schelling won't be asked about #Greece anymore at #Eurogroup doorstep.

two weeks before Presidentials in Austria: huge change in politics, Chancellor Faymann leaves, also as a leader of Social Demokrats #SPÖ

12.03pm BST

More breaking news: Austria’s leader, chancellor Werner Faymann, has just resigned.

Faymann had been under pressures from his party, the centre-left social democrats, to work with the far-right Freedom Party.

Breaking - Austrian chancellor Faymann resigns after far-right election debacle, AFP reporting from Vienna

Faymann says he didn't have enough support from his party anymore. Resigns as SPÖ head too. #Austria

11.46am BST

Newsflash: The International Monetary Fund is urging Germany speed up its public infrastructure spending, and get more refugees into work.

More progress on structural reforms would revitalize potential growth and enhance the authorities’ leadership at the European level in this area.

A more dynamic Germany would also benefit the still fragile economic recovery in the euro area.

11.29am BST

Today’s meeting could be fiery, predicts John Springford of the Centre for European Reform.

#Brexit-watchers should pay attention to what happens in the Eurogroup on Greece today. IMF and Germany on collision course over debt relief

11.14am BST

We can usually rely on Pierre Moscovici, the European Commissioner for monetary union, for some upbeat quotes.

Not today, though. Moscovici has arrived at the eurogroup meeting without speaking to the press.

Moscovici and De Gundos also amongst the early #Eurogroup arrivals. No comment from either

No doorstep from @pierremoscovici ahead of the #Eurogroup.
That's kinda strange, as he almost always makes comments ahead of Eurogroups.

10.56am BST

France’s finance minister, Michel Sapin, has arrived early for today’s meeting. He sounds pretty upbeat:

'The best', says France's Sapin when asked what he expects from today's Greece #Eurogroup, perhaps optimistically

10.52am BST

German vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel has urged eurozone finance ministers to start talks about Greek debt relief today.

“We must help the country to reduce its debt burden.....

That’s why a step must finally be made at today’s Eurogroup meeting in Brussels to move towards a situation where Greece doesn’t have to fight every year again to get new loans in order to repay old loans.”

#Greece Euro-group today, we expect very little to be resolved. Domestic political constraints in Germany still key

10.19am BST

Officials at the Greek finance ministry are insisting this morning that an agreement in principle has been reached on the core €5.4bn package of measures demanded by lenders.

One said:

“There is an agreement in principle [concerning] the contents of the review: the privatisations fund, Non Performing Loans, social security and tax [systems], indirect taxes”.

“The protracted negotiations have been all about proving they are not traitors of the left. It is crucial that they now win this battle over extra [contingency] measures …. If not, they will probably do something out of the box like early elections.”

9.59am BST

Finland’s finance minister, Alex Stubb, is on his way to today’s eurogroup meeting.

Wheels up for Brussels. Eurogroup on Greece. Looking for common solutions to common problems on #EuropeDay2016.

9.50am BST

Greek bonds are rallying this morning, as traders welcome the news that MPs approved fresh austerity measures overnight.

Money is flowing back into Greece’s debt, pushing down the interest rate (or yield) that investors demand to hold the bonds. The yield on two-year Greek debt has fallen sharply to 9.4%, down from 10.2% on Friday.

“The vote in parliament is constructive and positive for the Eurogroup talks and that should help the decision to give Greece additional support,” said

9.33am BST

This pie chart, from Bloomberg, shows how the IMF and European institutions now hold most of Greece’s debt:

#Euro area to debate #Greece's 321 billion-euro problem https://t.co/A0vCcLtyj7 via @nchrysoloras pic.twitter.com/PuXrOi4iVp

9.32am BST

Robin Bew of the Economist Intelligence Unit also predicts trouble ahead:

#Greece passes reform plan, although contingency plan needed before bailout in bag. But implementation very hard. Trouble within few years

9.22am BST

Greece could soon be plunged into the uncertainty of another general election, fears analyst Wolfgang Piccoli of Teneo Intelligence.

He’s worried that the two sides still haven’t reached a decision on ‘contingency measures’ (fresh austerity) that would be implemented if Greece failed to hit the targets set by creditors.

While Athens insists on an automatic fiscal brake that would trigger across-the-board cuts, the institutions, and especially the IMF, consider this option neither credible nor sustainable. In contrast, they are calling for specific measures that should be legislated upfront and have an automatic trigger. While Tsipras’ preference is to conclude the review as soon as possible, the nature of the contingency package could determine the fate of his government as it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to secure the required 151 votes. Conversely, Germany will be unwilling to discuss debt relief any further without a specific Greek contingency package with automatic triggers.

The risk of snap polls could increase significantly if the lenders decide to play hardball by insisting on a contingency package that Tsipras cannot either accept or get approved in parliament. The Eurogroup meeting scheduled for 24 May could offer the next opportunity for a deal.

9.16am BST

UKIP leader Nigel Farage has leapt on the protests in Athens last night, as proof that Britain should quit the EU:

Does Mr. Cameron really think the violent clashes in Athens last night represent peace?

The anti-democratic EU, far from bringing countries together, has divided Europe.

Failed Euro project has had a devastating impact on lives of citizens across Europe who have suffered at the hands of the EU nationalists.

8.57am BST

Here’s our latest dispatch from Athens:

Related: Greek MPs approve toughest austerity measures yet amid rioting

8.56am BST

The Greek crisis is returning to centre stage on today, says Bloomberg.

Aid deliberations by its international creditors will signal whether the country faces a renewed period of political drift or wins some economic breathing space after six years of turbulence.

Greece’s most influential creditors, Germany and the International Monetary Fund, remain deadlocked over the terms of Greece’s bailout plan, which the IMF thinks is badly flawed but Germany says can’t be changed.

The Eurogroup, as the committee of eurozone finance ministers is known, will meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss Greece’s fiscal strategy and the sustainability of its debts. A resolution of the deep differences isn’t expected.

Eurozone officials said that the stalemate over the contingency measures made it unlikely that any agreement to close the first review will be reached at Monday’s meeting.

Greece needs the additional bailout aid by July, when €3.5bn in debt comes due. The Greek government has sought to blame the IMF for the delays, and a senior Greek official said on Sunday that both the commission and the European Central Bank believed that Athens had done enough to close the review.

8.33am BST

There were familiar scenes in Athens last night as MPs gathered to vote on a €5.4bn package of budget cuts and pension reforms.

#Mitsotakis : You have deprived #Greece of 210.000 employment places when you drove the economy to recession. #greekparliament

#Mitsotakis : Your goal is middle class impoverishment in favour of tax evaders and financial nomenclature. #greekparliament

#Mitsotakis : You're not a Leftist, Mr #Tsipras , you're an opportunist. An opportunist that would do anything to sit on the PM chair.

We have an important opportunity before us for the country to break this vicious cycle, and enter a virtuous cycle.

After six years (of crisis), the Eurogroup will meet to discuss debt relief.

Some hours ago, #Greece's Parliament approved a pension and tax reforms' package - only thanks to the 153 votes of the ruling coalition MPs.

8.08am BST

Good morning.

The long-running, seemingly never-ending Greek debt crisis is back on the agenda.

Related: IMF threatens to pull out of Greek rescue

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