2016-05-06

US payrolls fall much sharper than expected in April

Greek workers protest against pension and tax reforms

European markets fall

BHS: Green accuses MP of prejudice

UK new car sales rise in April

Spanish industrial production rebounds

6.12pm BST

The number of oil rigs in use in the US has dropped for the seventh week in a row.

The latest Baker Hughes survey showed the rig count fell by 5 to 415 last week, its lowest since October 2009.

5.18pm BST

Worries about the Chinese economy have eased but political risks have increased over the past quarter, according to Oxford Economics:

Our risk survey suggests China concerns have eased but political worries have increased: https://t.co/jUIvVmiEQk pic.twitter.com/f0RwAz9gRc

5.11pm BST

Back with BHS, and more on Dominic Chappell whose consortium owned the UK retailer before it collapsed last month. Simon Goodley reports:

[Chappell] was forced out of a previous business venture after taking around €400,000 (£315,000) from the company for his personal use.

The money, which appears to have been moved without the permission of other shareholders and has never been repaid, was transferred from a start-up company in Spain called Olivia Petroleum, which Chappell fronted and used to bolster his City credentials when he acquired BHS.

Related: BHS owner forced out of previous venture in row over missing money

4.58pm BST

After being in negative territory for much of the day and falling further after the disappointing US jobs figures, European markets came off their worst levels, inspired by a revival on Wall Street.

The US market’s initial falls were reversed as investors ignored yet another sign that the global economy was not in a particularly good place, and instead concentrated on the prospect that the Federal Reserve was unlikely to raise interest rates in the near future. So after a volatile day’s trading the final scores showed:

3.39pm BST

Here’s a chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing a breakdown of the US jobs:

3.28pm BST

Markets are finding it difficult to untangle the details of the latest US data, says Marcus Bullus, trading director of MB Capital. He said:

It has been a tale of two reports, as the markets have struggled to reconcile two conflicting indicators – slowing rates of job creation and stronger levels of wage growth.

The bears have focused on the disappointing headline number, seeing in it a worrying sign of the US economy’s susceptibility to global headwinds.

3.20pm BST

Oil has edged higher ahead of the latest weekly US rig count, with Brent crude 0.8% higher at $45.37.

3.03pm BST

Here’s our report on the US jobs numbers:

Related: US economy adds just 160,000 jobs in April – further sign of a slowdown

2.57pm BST

More pictures from Greece:

2.53pm BST

Away from the US jobs, and ahead of Sunday’s vote in the Greek parliament on pension and tax reforms, prime minister Alexis Tsipras has been defending the measures:

Tsipras defends pension reforms/tax hikes to Syriza MPs ahead of Sunday's vote#Greece #generalstrike pic.twitter.com/HFxensYOQY

Tsipras: If we didn't reform [#Greece's] pension system, it would implode quite soon.

2.48pm BST

The jobs data is lukewarm but not unduly concerning, according to analysts at the CEBR:

While some will interpret it negatively, April’s job report represents a lukewarm verdict on the US economy’s current performance. The jobs creation numbers are significantly weaker than expected, but the results on pay growth suggest that the labour market has tightened somewhat. Clearly the pace of hiring has slowed, but this does not necessarily mean a marked cooling of growth in the US, as the details behind the headline number show a more nuanced picture.

An economic downturn is typically followed by a long spell of rapid hiring as unemployment or spare capacity in the labour market disappears, a process that is now largely complete. The healthy gains recorded in weekly earnings attest to a market in which workers are beginning to have the upper hand. The participation rate, the unemployment rate, and the number of involuntary unemployed (which all measure spare capacity) have, following sustained improvements during the recovery, changed little since the year’s beginning. In summary, the labour market appears to have stabilised for the time being....

2.44pm BST

The US market has unsurprisingly got off to a downbeat start after the worse than expected non-farm payroll numbers. But more surprisingly, it is already off its worst levels, and this is helping to revive European markets.

The data was well below forecast, adding to the recent reports from around the globe suggesting the world economy is slowing down. But at the same time it seems to have pushed out the expectations for the timing of the next US rate rise, which is providing some support for shares.

2.37pm BST

Barclays is now expecting just one more US rate rise this year, rather than two, in the wake of the weak jobs data. It is forecasting three rises in 2017.

2.33pm BST

Here are a couple of charts showing the jobs data:

2.30pm BST

More reaction to the worse than expected US jobs figures.

We could be in for a tricky few months, said David Morrison of Spread.co:

European equities and US stock index futures were already softer ahead of the release but fell further in the immediate aftermath - while the dollar also lost ground.

Of course, it’s worth remembering that we’ll have another set of updates on payrolls, manufacturing and services, plus a GDP revision, before the Federal Open Markets Committee meets next month. So we could have a tricky few weeks ahead of us which will be even trickier if Fed members sound off about keeping an open mind on a June hike.

The labour market has been a shining beacon compared with other elements of the US economy for the past few months, but no longer. More than 200,000 jobs had been added in five of the previous six months, but today’s figure has come in disappointingly low.

An interest rate hike next month is now looking unlikely as the general economic waters are far from calm. Weak growth at home and overseas is a major concern, as is poor manufacturing output, so Janet Yellen and the Fed are expected to keep the interest rate pause button pressed for a little longer.

Slowdown in #US #NFP job growth likely not a one off but a new trend - demand is weak & profits are tanking - #Fed on hold in coming months

For the 19th time, JOBS are a LAGGING indicator so they are now finally playing catch up behind the rest of macro dynamics #forex

200,000 monthly job gains "are simply unsustainable in an economy with a potential economic growth rate of less than 2%" - Capital Economics

2.24pm BST

James Smith, economist at ING, says the payrolls report is unlikely to change many minds on the Fed’s rate setting committee about the appropriate timing of the next rise:

Although clearly disappointing, this may be more consistent with a gradual slowdown in employment growth as the economy gradually erodes the remaining slack in the labour market.

As an aggregate, the labour report was probably best described as a fairly neutral and crucially, is unlikely to change too many minds on the FOMC about the timing of the next rate hike.

2.19pm BST

Back in the UK, Thomas Cook has responded to the threat of a half-term walkout by its cabin crew over plans to reduce break times.

A spokesperson said:

We would like to reassure our customers that nothing matters more to us than safety. It’s regrettable the union has chosen this path because the crew rest procedure, which includes monitoring all crew rest on all flights, was introduced with the agreement of the union.

It also meets the regulations of industry experts the Civil Aviation Authority and does not compromise on safety. We have offered to meet union representatives and the message we hear directly from our crew is that they’re looking forward to a great summer of flying customers on holiday.

2.13pm BST

The 160,000 non-farm US jobs created in April was way below the average of 232,000 over the last 12 months.

Professional and business services created 65,000 jobs in April, higher than the 12-month average.

US Non-farm payroll gain exactly in line with Markit PMI signal at 160K. Q1 ave revised down to 200k v Markit 198k https://t.co/HuToiMgahA

2.03pm BST

Attention will now turn to the Federal Reserve, casting doubt over the central bank’s willingness to raise interests in the face of a softer jobs market.

Details of the report from the US Labor Department showed a mixed picture for April. The headline figure of 160,000 was undoubtedly a shocker (202,000 expected), but other elements of the report were in line with expectations.

1.57pm BST

US markets are expected to open lower.

Opening call before the US jobs report was published:

US Opening Calls:#DOW 17605 -0.31%#SPX 2044 -0.28%#NASDAQ 4297 -0.25%#IGOpeningCall

1.50pm BST

The 160,000 non-farm jobs created in April was the smallest in seven months.

Falls in European markets have accelerated since the jobs report was published:

1.31pm BST

Breaking: US non-farm payrolls dropped sharply in April, to 160,000 from 208,000 in March.

This is a large downside shock. Economists were expecting 202,000.

1.22pm BST

Almost time for US payrolls.

Economists polled by Reuters are expecting the report to show that non-farm payrolls increased by 202,000 in April, lower than March’s 215,00.

1.20pm BST

Thomas Cook cabin crew are voting on possible strike action during the half-term holiday in May.

12.37pm BST

Leicester City’s incredible Premier League title win has already put the East Midlands city on the tourist map.

With much buzz surrounding Leicester’s inconceivable Premier League victory, it is unsurprising to see a last-minute surge in hotel searches to the city.

The average stay duration of one night suggests that fans have either managed to obtain last-minute tickets, or simply want to soak up the atmosphere and celebrate.

12.04pm BST

Athens Airport announcement for general strike #Greece #generalstrike pic.twitter.com/DhSd6kpPgk

Second protest today due to 48h #strike in #Greece against planned social security reform#apergia pic.twitter.com/KTc6dWG2uJ

12.02pm BST

Tensions are already running high in Athens as Greeks take to the streets at the beginning of a three-day general strike.

They are trying to prove to the Eurogroup that they are good students but the y are destroying Greece’s social security system.

11.24am BST

Christine Lagarde is losing patience with eurozone finance ministers.

We believe that specific [economic reform] measures, debt restructuring, and financing must now be discussed contemporaneously.

For us to support Greece with a new IMF arrangement, it is essential that the financing and debt relief from Greece’s European partners are based on fiscal targets that are realistic because they are supported by credible measures to reach them.

Last day in #Brussels, 1 last #Greece scoop: @Lagarde letter to all EZ finmins last nite urges immediate debt talks: https://t.co/j2jQtbgUh2

11.01am BST

European markets are still down ahead of the US payrolls...

10.26am BST

Some upbeat figures from Spain earlier.

Industrial production rose 1.2% in March, rebounding from a 0.3% drop in February and the best performance since 2014.

#Spain Industrial Production year-on-year at 2.8% https://t.co/yRJLumRps5 pic.twitter.com/FQNUYjoYsW

10.01am BST

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, says this morning’s car figures show resilience but there are also signs that consumers are becoming concerned about the economic outlook:

New car sales were pretty resilient in April, in contrast to the weakened performance seen in many other sectors of the economy.

A modest dip in private sector car sales may well be the consequence of consumers becoming more wary about buying big ticket items due to increased concerns over the economic outlook and a recent dilution of purchasing power compared to the peak levels of 2015.

9.40am BST

The best-selling cars in the UK in April:

9.36am BST

New car sales rose again in April, up 2% compared with a year earlier.

Consumer confidence remains high as buyers continue to capitalise on attractive finance deals, although this could be affected by political and economic uncertainty in the coming months.

8.56am BST

Sir Philip Green, the billionaire former owner of BHS, has called for the resignation of MP Frank Field as head of the parliamentary investigation into the retailer’s demise.

I feel that Philip Green has a moral duty to make good the pension scheme and if he doesn’t, while I can’t speak for the committee as a whole, I personally would recommend he should lose his knighthood.

Sir Philip is a master of bullying but he will find that parliament isn’t for being bullied.

Clearly he has made his decision as to what he feels the punishment should be without even hearing any evidence from anybody about BHS or the circumstances of the last 15 years.

I think Mr Field needs to stand down from the inquiry immediately as he is clearly prejudiced.

8.23am BST

Investors are particularly nervous about the US payrolls report today following other worrying signals that the labour market is weakening in the world’s largest economy.

A study published on Thursday showed the number of US workers laid off last month jumped, hitting the highest level for an April in seven years.

8.11am BST

Oil prices are also falling this morning.

Brent crude oil is down 0.5% at $44.77 a barrel.

8.09am BST

The cautious sentiment has spread to Europe, with markets opening lower across the board this morning.

The FTSE 100 is down 0.7% at 6,076.

8.01am BST

Shares in Asia have fallen, hitting one-month lows as fears over the US jobs recovery and the wider economy take their toll.

Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management”

Recent global economic data and some corporate earnings from major Western firms have been lackluster, leading to risk-off trading in markets.

7.39am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The big news item on the agenda today is the US payrolls report for April, published at 13.30 UK time.

Expectations around today’s number are for 200k new jobs to be added for April, down from 215k in March, which would be more in line with the better than expected ISM non-manufacturing report which came out on Wednesday.

That saw a decent rise in the employment component, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5%, but there does appear to be an undercurrent of concern that suggests we could see a miss to the downside.

Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6108 down 9
$DAX 9818 down 34
$CAC 4294 down 26$IBEX 8672 down 17$MIB 17877 down 47

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