2016-07-05

‘She is very pleasant and what comes out of her mouth is not that pleasant,’ Hinch says. Malcolm Turnbull remains under pressure as vote counting resumes. Peta Credlin has accused him of breaking the party’s heart and conservative MPs are calling for a meeting. Follow the day’s developments live with Gabrielle Chan

2.45am BST

In a very brave move, Australian Marriage Equality campaigner Rodney Croome lobs a bomb into Malcolm Turnbull’s world via an opinion piece for Guardian.

There is now a clear majority of MPs in favour of marriage equality – at least 81 according to Australian Marriage Equality’s count. The number will rise as more seats are decided and more undeclared supporters reveal their position.

2.40am BST

Just on the Liberal party again, I recommend you read Gray Connolly’s thought-provoking piece in the previous edition of Meanjin on Australian conservatism. This bit is particularly pertinent to the next term of government.

Conservatives should always endeavour to support the unity and camaraderie of the national family. In this regard, conservatives should support the formal recognition of Australia’s Indigenous peoples. Conser­va­tives respect history and heritage, and in this country no-one’s heritage and history should be more respected than that of Indigenous Australia. It is past time to give our Indigenous brothers and sisters the recognition that they have been too long denied. Similarly, conservatives should defend the religious faiths of all Australians, particularly our Muslim citizens, as we do our Jewish and Christian citizens. We have no religious tests in this country and we should not countenance their imposition now. Conservatives should also recall that any restriction on Islamic religious freedom will soon find its way to other faiths – and that this path too often leads to the guillotine or the gulag. The ‘freedom’-inspired reforms of section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act are of marginal utility for whatever libertarian cause is being pushed, and prudence, as opposed to absolutism, would be a better guide on this issue. Certainly, Malcolm Turnbull’s instincts were more sound and conservative on the ‘freedom agenda’ than those pursuing this gambit. What is conservative about promoting divisions in a pluralistic society?

2.16am BST

Malcolm Turnbull has been button-holed outside his home.

Well, look, the count is continuing and we remain confident that we will secure enough seats to have a majority in the parliament but all the votes have been cast, that’s the good news, and it’s now simply a matter to count them so we’re just awaiting that.

Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he? I’m sure he would. I don’t think we’ll be taking advice from the leader of the opposition, do you? I think he couldn’t think of anything else better to say. Anyway, it’s good to see you. Thank you all very much for turning up and I will press on now.

2.10am BST

Back to the cleaving of the Liberal party and/or bedwetting.

There are two elements to the struggle as far as I can see. One is the immediate problem of which faction has control of the prime minister’s office and therefore which agenda will be prosecuted by the party.

I think we are going to fall into a trap that Alan Jones is a friend of the Liberal National party in Queensland. He actively campaigned for the Labor party in the last state election. Alan, I actually don’t care what you think because you are not a friend of conservatives. You are not a friend of the Liberal National party, you’re the king of the bedwetters actually.

1.21am BST

There are a number of staffers milling around the building. As my Aussies cafe correspondent reports that quite a number have come back to parliament because they have nowhere else to go. Usually the winners go into immediate briefings in rooms around the building, including the Monkey Pod room. The losers start renegotiating jobs in the short paid period before the guillotine comes down. Within this vacuum, they can do neither.

Those who are not in the building, I guess, are just on the couch, catching up with Game of Thrones and Orange is the New Black.

1.15am BST

Hinch has seven issues. Jacqui Lambie has four.

Independent JLN senator-elect for Tasmania Jacqui Lambie, has promised to cooperate and consult with all elected to the new parliament to deliver a stable government and has urged all to focus on four immediate and important matters:

In addition to addressing and fixing my four important matters, my message to whoever is going to form the new government – is to learn the lessons of the past and consult with crossbenchers before legislation is introduced to parliament.

1.08am BST

Bear in mind these are anonymous sources but we can see the Liberal party cleaving into two sections. They were always there, but they have been emboldened. A bit more in a minute.

Cabinet source stressing convention 4 party room to meet to re-elect leadership post elex. Says need 2be sensible & inclusive re crossbench

BREAKING from a conservative: If @TurnbullMalcolm does a deal selling us out for himself we can change him @1st party room meeting @abc news

1.01am BST

Derryn Hinch on Pauline Hanson.

She is very pleasant and what comes out of her mouth is not that pleasant. She is talking about having CCTV cameras in mosques, and people go, well, why don’t you put it in churches to keep an eye on the paedophile priests. Doesn’t make sense.

12.57am BST

Those outside of Victoria may have missed Derryn Hinch’s Justice Bus. This was the Human Headline’s version of the Bill Bus. So I thought I should bring you his agenda.

I am very clear on the seven issues on which we campaigned. We covered more than 11,000km in the justice van. I made it very clear my main point, I want a national public register of convicted sex offenders, I want a Senate inquiry into the family court and child welfare services. I want to launch a campaign to end live exports. I took a petition to Canberra in 1981 to try to do that, so not exactly a Jonny-come-lately on that issue. I’m a believer in dying with dignity, and domestic violence issues, a lot of these issues come down to state issues, I know that but there is a federal element, too.

12.42am BST

The count in the Senate continues but like the Coalition factions, everyone is doing the dance of the army surplus blankets.

Phil Coorey at the Australian Financial Review has a story about the timing of Senate terms. This is a fight that was a natural result of the double-dissolution parliament. In order to get back into the Senate timetable, some senators will be assigned seats which expire in three years and some will expire in six years. No prizes for guessing why this will cause a fight. Here is Coorey:

The Australian Financial Review understands that both the Coalition and Labor are considering using their combined numbers in the Senate to invoke a never-before used provision to determine who serves full six-year terms and who serves three-year terms following a double dissolution election.

Under the countback provision, Ms Hanson, Derryn Hinch in Victoria, Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania, some Greens and other minor and micro-party senators would be among those who would be given three-year terms. That means they would face re-election again in 2019 which would be a half-Senate election where twice the number of votes are needed to win a seat. Under the reforms to Senate voting passed earlier this year, they would struggle to win back their seats.

But the interesting thing is that I see that the Financial Review had a story saying there’s some sort of mumblings and rumblings in Canberra already between the Labor party and the Liberal party to try to get rid of the Hanson factor and the Hinch factor I guess by making sure we only serve three years. I don’t know what the constitution says, to be honest. But I think it says the Senate has to decide who stays and who goes. Now, my argument will be – and we may end up in the high court over this – would be I should be the fourth senator in the top six who should stay for six years. At the moment my party is running behind the Libs, behind Labor and just over half the vote the Greens got. The fourth number of primary votes, I should be the one that stays for six years.

12.17am BST

The counting restarts in earnest today. It would not be unfair to say there is great frustration around the government over this Australian Electoral Commission’s process. But maybe it is more about the fact that their hands are tied until we have firm numbers. As to the push for a Coalition party room meeting, I’m told that a meeting cannot really happen until the parliament has some numbers to work with.

So there appears to be two different approaches within the government. While Turnbull continues to make phone calls to the crossbenchers, his camp says there cannot be a meeting until the count is complete and we know our numbers.

12.08am BST

Anthony Albanese is in the leadership queue for Labor. He was interviewed by Leigh Sales on 7.30. He ruled out a tilt now but not down the track.

This is like a footy game that’s gone into extra time. Now you don’t even consider changing who the captain is during extra time. We have had an extraordinary result on Saturday. The Labor Party has been very united, will continue to be so and we’re still in a position whereby we may well form government in the next few weeks. But whether we’re in, I think the most likely outcome is a minority position, whether in government or in opposition, I have a great deal of experience, of course, having been the leader of the house in the 2010-2013 period and I want to help Bill as the leader, Tony Burke as the manager of opposition business or the leader of the House in how to deal with that if those circumstances arrive. I’ve always been a team player, Leigh, and always put the party first before my own interests, and I certainly will be continuing to do that as I always have. No one’s leader indefinitely, Leigh. We’re a political party more than 100 years old. But certainly, I think we will continue forward with Bill Shorten as the leader. And I will be playing a role as part of the team.

12.00am BST

Nick Xenophon’s phone is running hot. The Adelaide Advertiser reports Turnbull put in a call to Xen Master, ready and willing to talk about the future of Arrium, the “troubled” steelmaker.

As his job hangs in the balance, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has spoken to South Australian senator Nick Xenophon to discuss the future of the Whyalla steelworks.

And senior minister Christopher Pyne told the Advertiser the Coalition was open to giving more help to embattled steelmaker Arrium. Senator Penny Wong also confirmed that Labor is “absolutely committed” to its success.

11.51pm BST

In response to the likes of Bernardi, moderates like the education minister, Simon Birmingham, have been out and about this morning, presenting the face of the reasonable centre right. He told the ABC:

Again if I look here in South Australia, my home state and Cory’s home state, the rise of the Xenophon party which is the minor party that’s been most successful of all at this election, I think they are overwhelmingly driven or those voters are more overwhelmingly driven by more centrist concerns. We need to be more mindful of that.

No, I think the Coalition will always need to be the broad church that John Howard so often describes it as.

11.47pm BST

South Australian conservative senator Cory Bernardi spoke to 7.30 last night.

As it currently stands, the Liberal party’s dropped about a million first preference votes and the Labor party has dropped about 500,000 first preference votes. That says to me that the people of Australia are saying “Neither of you are doing enough of a good job and reflecting our concerns.” One Nation in Victoria went from having 200 votes to 20,000-odd at this election. The same in South Australia. The Christian Democrats in New SouthWales, their vote was doubled. You have the Australian Liberty Alliance. You have Derryn Hinch. All of these small parties that are speaking up for issues that many Australians feel very concerned about, are gathering the votes from us because we haven’t adequately been reflecting those issues.

@TextorMark Hey Tex, I'm thinking that Conservatives actually do matter.

11.34pm BST

There are anonymous sources quoted all over the joint this morning. Unnamed Coalition MPs are agitating for a party room meeting. The Australian is reporting that Turnbull is facing “a ­party room revolt”.

The conservatives are trying to box Turnbull in (if they can’t knock him off) so that he does not do any deals that might drag the party closer to the centre. A hung parliament would provide the perfect cover to get a few things done that are his signature issues, such as climate change and marriage equality. The #Delcons are having none of that.

Ministers and backbenchers have held talks on plans for a ­partyroom meeting as soon as next week to ensure they are consulted on the crossbench negotiations and are not presented with a “fait accompli” if Mr Turnbull needs to strike a deal.

Coalition MPs are ready to pay their own way to Canberra during the extended caretaker period before parliament resumes, insisting on the urgency of a full meeting to avoid crossbench agreements they would later regret.

11.17pm BST

Pamela Williams has an interesting campaign round up at the Australian, in the light of the Credlin spray. She reports that a senior member of the prime minister’s office threatened the Sky political editor, David Speers. It’s me or Peta.

It was a threat as clear as a sledgehammer and taken as such. Speers immediately contacted his boss, Sky chief executive Angelos Frangopoulos. It was clear the Prime Minister’s Office regarded Credlin with deadly venom. While she was on Sky, Turnbull would not appear. If this was the cut and thrust of electioneering, it had just become very bloody …

Two weeks later, Speers was threatened over Credlin’s role when it was made clear to him there would be no further co-operation from Turnbull while Credlin was employed. Frangopoulos said yesterday that he had taken the matter up with Turnbull’s ­office. “The issue was immediately raised with the PMO and the matter ­resolved. I have no further comment,” he said.

If they think that I’ve tried to settle scores, well they ain’t seen anything yet.

11.04pm BST

Paul Karp has been listening to Turnbull’s chief Senate negotiator, the attorney general George Brandis. This is Paul:

What a difference a few days make – before the election the Coalition warned of the chaos and uncertainty of the prospect of Labor relying on Greens and independents to govern.

There’s no such thing as a failed election – an election always produces the parliament the people choose. Sometimes that’s a large majority, sometimes a narrow one, and sometimes the party that forms government relies on other elements of the parliament to govern, but there’s nothing unusual here.

In the event of the hung parliament, Malcolm Turnbull will seek support of a number of independents. It’s not helpful for anyone on the Coalition side to engage in criticism which would weaken Malcolm Turnbull’s bargaining position.

The fact is we will know within a matter of days if the majority of seats was won by the government or not, but I think it’s likely due to the inbuilt advantage of the conservative side of politics on postal and absentee votes.

10.58pm BST

We begin the day with a whole lot of free advice for Malcolm Turnbull. It is coming from all quarters. Chief of barf is Peta Credlin who has let loose on Malcolm and his supporters. She has spoken to Andrew Bolt, head of the conservative faction outside the party room.

On Malcolm Turnbull and supporters:

Malcolm Turnbull, you are the man that broke the Liberal party’s heart … Arthur Sinodinos, James McGrath, Scott Ryan – they’re the ones that were at least in the Senate and kept their seats. Wyatt Roy, Peter Hendy – that collective brains trust that sat there and undid Tony Abbott, I don’t think have been giving the prime minister great advice,” she said.

I feel justified in putting this out there because, you know what? Everyone’s had a crack at me and the advice I gave the prime minister – Tony Abbott – but at least he won an election.

He worked so hard for six years to get them in to a position of a landslide victory and seats and an agenda, and the only one really who had a plan for debt and deficit repair.

Why would he do it? Because that hapless group of bedwetters are just as likely to see another couple of polls and say thanks Tony, but no thanks.”

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