Prime minister says final results of cliffhanger election won’t be known for days. All the developments live with Katharine Murphy
4.16pm BST
How do you end a night like tonight? You say well done Australia for giving the status quo a right good shake. I said when we kicked off the live coverage this evening disaffection was a major factor in this result, the only question was how the disaffection would ultimately manifest itself. We still don’t quite know and we won’t for several days.
3.47pm BST
Can the Coalition get to a majority? It’s possible, certainly, but no one can make a definitive call on that tonight.
3.45pm BST
He ends on this note.
Malcolm Turnbull:
The election is over. Only the counting remains. And now is the time to unite in Australia’s aid, in Australia’s service, to ensure that we can have truly the very best years for our country ahead of us.
3.41pm BST
Malcolm Turnbull tries to end on a conciliatory note, with a pitch to unity.
I want to say to all Australians those that voted for us, those that voted for other parties or candidates, this is a time when we must come together. We must stick together. We face enormous challenges. We face, we face challenges in a rapidly evolving global economy that we do not anticipate, that will surprise us, the opportunities will surprise us, but so will the headwinds. We need have a common purpose. We need to have a commitment to the economic plan that sets us up for success. We have that plan and we will in government be seeking the support of all Australians, all members of the parliament, to the program that alone can deliver us success in the years ahead.
3.39pm BST
The prime minister thanks his family, ministers, his ministerial office and his campaign team. He also defends the decision to call a double-dissolution election. He says the objective of the double dissolution was not to clean out the Senate, the objective was to reassert the rule of law on building sites.
Malcolm Turnbull:
For those that say we shouldn’t have called a double-dissolution election are saying we should have just let the CFMEU with get on with doing what they like and never challenge them. And that is not in Australia’s interests. It’s not right. It’s weak. We have to stand up for what is right to restore the rule of law in an industry that employs over a million Australians.
3.35pm BST
Malcolm Turnbull:
So, my friends, I’m sure that as the results are refined and come in over the next few days with all of the counting, we will be able to form that majority government.
But, let me say this, let me say this without any fear of contradiction.
3.33pm BST
Malcolm Turnbull:
The circumstances of Australia cannot be changed by a lying campaign from the Labor party. The challenges, the fact that we live in times of rapid economic change, of enormous opportunity, enormous challenges, a time when we need to be innovative, when we need to be competitive, when we need to be able to seize those opportunities, those times are there.
No politician can give a speech, can write a policy, can send a message and change the reality of the circumstances in which we live and the policies that will enable us to meet those times with success. And they are the values of our party because they are the values of freedom, of business, of enterprise and entrepreneurship. And the alternative, the idea, the idea, the idea that the answer to Australia’s economic challenges, as Labor would have it, Labor with the second lowest primary vote in its history, but Labor would say that the answer is more debt, more deficit and higher taxes.
3.29pm BST
The prime minister has forgotten he has a microphone. He is hollering his head off. Labor and the trade union movement ran a campaign full of lies, Malcolm Turnbull says. He says text messages were sent to voters today, allegedly from “Medicare”.
Malcolm Turnbull:
An extraordinary act of dishonesty. No doubt the police will investigate!
3.26pm BST
The prime minister says the advice from his officials is the Coalition is on track for majority government. But Malcolm Turnbull says the result will not be known for days. Repeat that. Days.
Turnbull says it is just like 1998.
3.24pm BST
The prime minister is entering the Sofitel ballroom. The room livens up.
3.21pm BST
There hasn’t been much time for summaries, I will post one when we are on the other side of Malcolm Turnbull.
People have been asking me on Twitter which independents are back in the House of Representatives? Here’s the answer: Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter and a new NXT candidate in Mayo, Rebekha Sharkie.
3.15pm BST
I’ve just had a very quick glance at WA. Labor’s candidate Anne Aly has pulled ahead of the Liberal Luke Simpkins in Cowan. Just. Counting will continue in WA until about 2am, eastern time.
3.06pm BST
How I'm feeling @murpharoo as #ausvotes drags on..... pic.twitter.com/hPIzSI1gpW
3.04pm BST
Happy Sunday everyone. We will hear from the prime minister very shortly.
3.00pm BST
A tale of two election evenings, in pictures. Bill Shorten pumped at Moonee Ponds.
2.52pm BST
Malcolm Turnbull is on his way now to the Soffitel.
2.51pm BST
It appears the Greens’ bid to pick up more seats in the house of reps to keep their re-elected Melbourne MP Adam Bandt company will be a slow burn. In the weeks leading up to the election, Richard Di Natale said his goal was to increase the party’s primary vote, retain Adam Bandt in the lower house and hold on to all 10 senators.
But the party was hopeful they were in with a chance in Batman, Wills, Melbourne Ports and the Liberal seat of Higgins in Victoria, Grayndler, Sydney and Richmond in NSW, and Fremantle in WA. By the end of the night only two of those were still in play. The marginal Labor seat of Melbourne Ports and the traditionally safe Labor seat of Batman in Victoria remain on a knife-edge.
Di Natale warned that by defying the Labor executive and preferencing Liberal Owen Guest ahead of the Greens, sitting Melbourne Ports member Michael Danby may help to deliver a Liberal government. “In Melbourne Ports where it’s a three-way contest, we won’t know the outcome yet,” Di Natale said, addressing supporters at the Forum Theatre in Melbourne. “But let me tell you something. At the moment we’re in a battle with the Labor party. And if we get over the Labor party – it’s currently line-ball – we’re a chance of knocking off the Liberals, who are now currently in a position to win that seat.
2.48pm BST
Hats off, #ausvotes stayers. Hats off.
Husband down for the count; hang in there, cat. @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/xq8tJWFFkZ
It's a been a long night. Certainly not a purrfect outcome for the Libs. #ausvotes #auspol @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/oqrZPKL2Wg
@murpharoo Update on the #democracymelon from Beijing #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/EeBpX6i5i1
2.45pm BST
Bill Shorten receives hero's welcome #ausvotes @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/feSm10lWUP
2.44pm BST
Bill Shorten:
Friends, we are the party for all those who serve. All who strive. All who care for one another. All who make our country what it is.
Your futures and your opportunities – this will always be our mission.
2.43pm BST
Bill Shorten:
From every generation and in every part of our nation, in our cities and our regions, from the great grand country towns to new and growing suburbs, battlers and small business people, our farmers and our teachers, we are the party for first Australians and all those who have followed from every faith and every nation and every tradition.
We are the party for people who love each other and deserve the right to get married. We are, we are the party for women seeking equal opportunity at work. And apprentices looking for a start and older workers looking for a new start. We are the party that includes every citizen of the great Australian aspiration for the fair go all round.
2.38pm BST
Bill Shorten thanks his shadow cabinet and his team, his wife, Chloe, and family. He says it’s time for the parliament to get back to work.
Tonight we stand by our program. Our mandate.
Jobs with fair pay and penalty rates. Education and Gonski. Fibre NBN. Affordable housing and reform of negative gearing. Real action on climate change. And protecting our great national institution and one of the greatest Labor achievements – Medicare!
2.35pm BST
Bill Shorten:
All of you, every single one of you, and thousands and thousands of our supporters and members right across this marvellous country, you should have great pride in what we have accomplished.
In the past three years we have united as a party. In the past eight weeks we have run a magnificent campaign. We have argued for our positive plans and, three years after the Liberals came to power in a landslide, they have lost their mandate.
2.30pm BST
Friends, we will not know the outcome of this election tonight. Indeed, we may not know it for some days to come. But there is one thing for sure – the Labor party is back!
That’s the opening gambit from Bill Shorten this evening.
2.29pm BST
Labor’s Brendan O’Connor is the warm-up act for Bill Shorten in Moonee Ponds.
Three years ago we were a divided party. We had just been beaten significantly in the polls. And people were talking about us being in the wilderness, bereft of policies and disunited. And I have to say in that short time we have seen cohesion, a unity of purpose and a focus on policies and that has been as a result of course of the collective efforts of the Labor movement, the Labor party, the federal parliamentary Labor party but in particular as a result of the leadership of Bill Shorten!
2.26pm BST
Speaking in Melbourne, the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, has warned of tough negotiations in the event the verdict is a hung parliament.
Richard Di Natale:
When the phone does ring - and it will ring - the issue dangerous climate change, the treatment of innocent people seeking asylum in this country, they are things that will be front and centre in any negotiation.
2.24pm BST
Alan Jones on the Seven Network chooses to address the prime minister through the television set. Come now Malcolm. Do it for your country. Go and address your reporters at the Sofitel.
Alan Jones:
You’ve got to go and do the gig!
2.18pm BST
Labor Senate candidate Malarndirri McCarthy says she expects to face racism if she gets to federal parliament.
Likely NT senator, Malarndirri McCarthy said experience of Nova Peris in parl taught her to expect racism. #Ausvotes pic.twitter.com/gTAxFQ8Veb
2.14pm BST
Mike Bowers caught John Howard when he spoke to reporters briefly at Liberal HQ before.
2.06pm BST
1.57pm BST
Hang in there, Liberal party pollster, Mark Textor. Hang in there.
It's 11pm. Still 30%+ hasn't been counted. It's 2016 FFS, AEC!
1.50pm BST
Hang in there Australia. Hang in there.
@murpharoo pic.twitter.com/4cymQ9GdAt
1.48pm BST
On the ABC, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, is holding the line and keeping morale high. He says the government will prevail at the end of the day.
Labor folks still don’t know which way this wave will break and acknowledge it is entirely possible the Coalition can get to 76 seats. Some in the opposition are fretting about the impact of postal votes in Queensland, among other variables. Labor’s performance in Victoria has also let down the side tonight.
Look, that is a matter we will never know.
I think it’s highly unlikely. I think the party room made its own judgment last September.
I think the party room made that judgment last year.
1.38pm BST
John Howard is addressing reporters over at Liberal HQ. He’s paying tribute to the Liberal MPs who have lost this evening. He won’t go further than that.
John Howard:
It is for the prime minister to speak on behalf of the Coalition in relation to the overall campaign.
1.34pm BST
Hi Belfast! I could use a bit of this myself.
@murpharoo second election party breakfast in Belfast. pic.twitter.com/YYFBpiGqpP
1.33pm BST
Mike Bowers tells me he hears John Howard is due to arrive at the Turnbull function.
The deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, is on the ABC.
I disagree with that. I don’t think the Australian people want this revolving door of prime ministers. I don’t. I’ve had a couple of calls with Malcolm tonight and I’m looking forward to Malcolm being the PM of our nation.
1.29pm BST
A few more seats we are comfortable calling.
1.19pm BST
Things getting a bit loose out there in voter land. Keep it together folks.
Hot tub election party!!! #ausvotes @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/najSw3eFnh
1.17pm BST
The feeling at the Liberal party headquarters is not good. Apprehensiveness. Rising concern. It was confident for a few hours but it’s flat now. Almost brittle.
1.13pm BST
Seems appropriate to share now.
Gentleman missing the real @TurnbullMalcolm washes up at Greens party party. @murpharoo #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/Gur9TTp5RF
1.10pm BST
What was I saying before about Malcolm Turnbull being in trouble?
Andrew Bolt has been moved by the unfortunate trajectory of the evening to stamp his foot. And pound his keyboard while stamping his foot. He’s published a letter to Malcolm Turnbull. Dear Malcolm, you are toast.
You have been a disaster. You betrayed Tony Abbott and then led the party to humiliation, stripped of both values and honour.
Resign.
1.04pm BST
Pauline Hanson is heading towards a return to the federal parliament 20 years after winning the lower-house seat of Oxley. One Nation looks to have 5.4% of the Senate votes in Queensland, enough for at least one seat in the state. She’s just done the rounds of the commercial broadcasters, scoffing when asked what she learned during her 18 years – including eight failed election attempts – in the political wilderness. “Hold on a minute. Has the Liberal, Labor or Greens learned anything? Start listening to grassroots Australians?” she said. “I don’t need to listen to anything. I know what the people are thinking and how they are feeling.” She’s listed infrastructure, reigning in the debt and “pulling the country together” as her key priorities.
Hanson is also determined to avoid the infighting that destroyed her party the first time around. “I’ve got 20 years experience now in politics, I’m not the new kid in the bock as I was back then,” she says. “I am so determined to make this work … The David Oldfields are not there any longer. People infiltrated my party in the first place. And the Liberal, Labor and National parties destroyed it. It’s not going to happen this time, I won’t allow it to happen. Total control.”
1.01pm BST
Let’s zoom out to the whole country now. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor is currently leading with 50.7%. It’s worth noting that Western Australia vote totals are still quite small and they should still favour the Liberal party, so this will almost certainly drop.
Labor’s primary vote is at 35.6%, which is considered a swing of 1.4% by the AEC. The Greens vote is at about 10%, which is a swing of 1.5%. This is an improvement on the 2013 vote, but not as high as their 2010 result.
12.57pm BST
Labor’s party got off to a pretty good start of the night with swings in Tasmania that see Bass as a projected win and Lyons and Braddon as probable gains too. The red-shirted crowds gave big cheers for dethroning Wyatt Roy in Longman, and Jamie Briggs’s loss in Mayo to the Nick Xenophon Team.
But narrow defeats in Queensland marginals and results in Victoria have taken the wind out of their sails. The Liberals are set to hold all Labor’s targeted seats in Victoria (La Trobe, Corangamite and Deakin). The Liberals are currently narrowly ahead in Chisholm, which would be a rare Liberal gain from the ALP and a major blow to Labor forming government.
12.54pm BST
After a short wait in the car park for media, ALP candidate Luke Gosling walked into the Pint Club to cheers of “Gosling Gosling Gosling”, as his win looked more and more certain. Accompanied by his wife and young daughter, Gosling hugged NT Labor colleagues and staffers. He thanked his supporters and the union movement of the Top End for their help during the campaign – one of the nation’s closest.
Labor's @lukejgosling waits to appear on ABC after all but claiming victory over CLP incumbent Natasha Griggs. pic.twitter.com/hXF1aa1n4u
12.49pm BST
The Tasmanian Liberal senator Eric Abetz is telling Sky News it is disappointing the Liberals have had a swing against them in the apple isle. He says if the Coalition is returned to government he will be taking up the issue of the government’s superannuation policy, which he says has hurt the Coalition. The base is cranky about the budget changes.
Let’s just state the obvious here for a moment.
Look I’m not going to speculate on that. Suffice to say a change was made for better or worse and we move on.
12.41pm BST
The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, is triumphantly addressing supporters in Melbourne now. He’s giving a roll call of the pro-Green swings recorded in Victorian lower-house seats tonight. It’s a competition between all three parties for the seat of Melbourne Ports, Greens candidate Stephanie Hodgins-May says. The Greens need 800 votes to pull ahead of Labor and there are three booths and most of the pre-polls left to count.
12.38pm BST
Pauline Hanson thinks she might get two seats in the Senate for Queensland alone. She says in the Queensland seat of Hinkler, her candidate is polling 20% of the result with 30% of the vote counted.
But she remains cautious. “I’m not going to get myself over the line until I know what the figures are.” Malcolm Roberts is on her ticket as No 2. Roberts is a mine manager and Hanson says he could tell the environment minister, Greg Hunt, a thing or two. “This man has all the answers to this climate change BS we are being fed. The whole fact is Greg Hunt will not even debate him. No politician has got the empirical evidence to do with this climate change.” The New South Wales Labor senator Sam Dastyari congratulates Hanson before inviting her out for halal snack pack in Sydney. Hanson says that is not going to happen, quoting a figure of 98% of Australians who do not want halal certification. Not sure of the source.
12.35pm BST
Back to the curious sledge against Liberal party pollster Mark Textor by the Liberal senator Cory Bernardi, readers have come to my rescue.
Textor told The Australian in September 2015 conservatives don’t matter. “The qualitative evidence is they don’t matter,’’ Textor said. “The sum of a more centrist approach outweighs any alleged marginal loss of so-called base voters.’’
These power brokers decided that the loss by a Turnbull-led Liberal Party of disgruntled conservatives outraged by its wanton progressivism will be outweighed by its appeal as a more moderate party to swinging voters. As Liberal pollster Mark Textor contemptuously observed about conservative voters: “The qualitative evidence is they don’t matter,’’ Mr Textor said. “The sum of a more centrist approach outweighs any alleged marginal loss of so-called base voters. But what if he’s wrong and a significant proportion of conservative voters turn against the Liberals? One option for them is to vote informal, leaving the Liberals with a significantly reduced vote that would deliver power into the hands of the ALP, given the expected flow of preferences. Turnbull and advisors like Textor might be calculating that such voters (being conservative and sensible) will refrain from taking such a step. However, Turnbull has offered them nothing, as he and his henchmen seem to delight in emphasising. Consequently, given the way things are going, what do they have to lose by voting informal?
12.26pm BST
Vote numbers are small, but Labor is well on track to gain the notional Liberal seat of Burt in Western Australia. At the moment the Liberals look most likely to retain all of their other seats.
12.24pm BST
ABC election analyst Antony Green says we are not going to know the result of the election tonight.
At the moment on the numbers I’m seeing it’s not clear. I don’t think we’ll have a clearer picture by the end of tonight.
12.23pm BST
It’s about time to start looking at WA data but before we do here’s the summary of the rest of the country:
12.21pm BST
On the Seven Network, Pauline Hanson is fighting with the former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett. Because it’s that kind of night.
12.17pm BST
This is too cryptic for me. Any suggestions about what Cory Bernardi means by this dig at the Liberal party’s pollster Mark Textor?
@TextorMark Hey Tex, I'm thinking that Conservatives actually do matter.
12.03pm BST
This is my latest back of the envelope tally of seats.
12.00pm BST
Tony Abbott is speaking to his electors in Warringah. He’s declaring victory in his seat, with a 3% negative swing.
Abbott looks quite cheerful. Can anyone guess why?
It’s not surprising you lose a few votes here and a few votes there.
There’ll be a strong Coalition government in Canberra that can work with a great Coalition government in Macquarie Street to give this area what it needs to prosper and to go ahead.
11.53am BST
As the results come in Liberal anger at the apparent effectiveness of Labor’s campaign on Medicare has mounted. “It’s a lie ... Labor has been boasting about this monstrous lie at the heart of its campaign,” said the deputy Liberal leader, Julie Bishop.
The treasurer, Scott Morrison, on the ABC’s election panel, was also fuming. “I don’t know what is more audacious, the size of the lie that has been told or the boasting on the back of it,” he said. “We know they told the lie, they got exposed on the lie yet they continued to back it in with the phone calls and the mail and the little cards and the whispers at the booths and all of these sorts of things. This was the Labor party’s campaign. It wasn’t a campaign about growing the economy, it was a campaign about fright.”
11.50am BST
Let Mike Bowers take us to the Liberal party’s celebration set up over at the Sofitel in Sydney. Veteran advancer Vince Woolcock does a spot of flag fluffing.
11.43am BST
What did Murph say? Freaking out?
Recriminations are already beginning over the leadership change to Malcolm Turnbull. On Channel Seven, Alan Jones accuses the Liberal senator and key Turnbull supporter James McGrath – who is on the panel – of being “chief bedwetter” for getting rid of Tony Abbott. McGrath retorts that no one should think that Alan Jones is a friend of the Liberal National party, given he campaigned against Campbell Newman’s state government. That government fell after just one term.
11.41am BST
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation looks to be major beneficiary of voter dissatisfaction with the major parties, currently polling more than 5% in lower-house Queensland seats, with Family First trailing close behind at 4%.
Ben Raue notes the results so far are largely from rural booths but should those results translate into the Senate both parties will pick up seats.
11.39am BST
If you look at how the Liberals are acting on the various TV panels right now, it’s clear. The Coalition is ... how can I put this politely ... freaking out.
11.37am BST
Here’s our current roll call of the seats.
11.29am BST
Labor seems to have won Bass, Braddon and Lyons in Tasmania, Solomon in the Northern Territory, Macquarie, Macarthur, Eden-Monaro and possibly Gilmore, Dobell, Paterson and Page in New South Wales and possibly Herbert, Longman and Forde in Queensland.
They are also hopeful about Burt in Western Australia. The Nick Xenophon candidate appears likely to pick up Mayo in South Australia.
11.19am BST
This is what Labor people are telling me right now, and the ABC’s veteran political commentator is prepared to make a punt.
Barrie Cassidy:
It’s more likely than not now that the country will have a hung parliament.
11.15am BST
Hi Cyprus.
Following @murpharoo live feed from Cyprus with our frappes. Election analysis is always better with sun #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/fpEaMBkW6C
11.13am BST
The Northern Territory seat of Solomon is recording a 10% swing to Labor. That looks like a Labor gain for Luke Gosling.
11.11am BST
This is my list of close seats, as things currently stand:
11.09am BST
My timeline is chock full of your celebrations. All round the world. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. You guys rock. I’m going to miss daily interactions with this community so much my heart hurts.
. @murpharoo Thinking of Mayo while watching in Hungary. #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/VLVWJcVwPP
Partying for @MadeleineMHKing in Brussels with our @ABCNews24 Aussies from UK France & Belgium! @murpharoo #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/Iq2TsRFMcm
@murpharoo Following along from Beijing #democracymelon #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/cJJHF3kbFi
@murpharoo My election party. You are my eyes and ears tonight Murph! #Trusted #BestNewsTeam #ausvotes #REBvSTO pic.twitter.com/rIo8VZqZm7
11.03am BST
At the moment the Victorian independent Cathy McGowan is looking comfortably ahead. The count is recording a 4.4% positive swing.
11.02am BST
A quick whip around. The outer-Brisbane seat of Petrie is currently very close. The Labor-held seat of Parramatta, where Malcolm Turnbull was campaigning today, has seen a large swing towards Labor. The Nationals are currently leading on primary votes in the Liberal-held seat of Murray, which they are both contesting on the retirement of the sitting MP. There has been a big swing to the Greens in Higgins but we’ll have to wait for a Liberal-v-Greens preference count.
11.00am BST
The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, has just been interviewed at the Forum in Melbourne and is saying Batman looks like the seat the Greens are most likely to win. He’s also hopeful in Melbourne Ports, Wills and Higgins, saying the race is far from over in those camps. “We’ve got greats swings heading our way. The question is, will it be enough to get us over the line? Batman is looking very good. My scrutineers are telling us we’ve got our noses in front ... When the Liberal party and the Labor party preference each other, we have an extra challenge. I wouldn’t count us out in Higgins just yet but at this stage Batman is the seat we’re most likely to pick up and win.”
10.58am BST
Hello Athens!
@murpharoo from the city where democracy all began... #athens #ausvotes #auspol @Jessica_Millner pic.twitter.com/gb2mLHDXKW
10.57am BST
You’ll see it on our results widget but our running total at the moment is: Coalition 20 Labor 19. It will be a long night folks.
10.52am BST
ABC election analyst Antony Green with a helicopter view.
We are in for a long night.
The picture is still pointing to a swing against the government but there are a lot of seats. I have 58 and 56 across the bottom of the screen, and it is not budging above 60. I am not prepared to give away several seats.
10.47am BST
Here’s our next batch of seats we are prepared to call.
10.43am BST
Meanwhile, the view in Coalition HQ.
Liberal party party has not really got going yet @murpharoo @GuardianAus #polticslive pic.twitter.com/ucBypmltyL
10.42am BST
Labor is suffering a potentially dangerous swing in some early Griffith booths in inner-south Brisbane, where Terri Butler is running for a second term after replacing Kevin Rudd in 2014. My view is David Feeney is also in trouble against the Greens’ Alex Bhathal in the inner-Melbourne seat of Batman.
(Murph, breaking in to Ben briefly: me too.)
10.39am BST
Despite reports from the ABC’s Sabra Lane that Labor insiders are saying they think the Victorian seat of Batman’s gone to the Greens, a Greens insider has just told me the party “is not ready to call it yet”. However, he does say figures are promising for the Greens from “the middle of the seat”.
While it’s still early, some Greens sources are saying they see an 11% swing in Higgins, held by the Liberal’s Kelly O’Dwyer and being contested by Greens Jason Ball.
10.36am BST
I’m certain she’s in.
Liberal James McGrath is making the call on the Seven Network at the moment. He’s speaking about Pauline Hanson. McGrath (who knows Queensland extremely well) says she is in the senate.
10.33am BST
The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green summarises the state of play thusly.
At this stage, the result is not clear. We’re seeing a swing which would not defeat the government but we’re also seeing Labor winning seats. At the moment, it’s sort of leaning towards the government being re-elected. Certainly I want to see some of these seats a bit more preference counted.
10.23am BST
On Sky News, Labor’s Linda Burney is claiming victory in the NSW seat of Barton. On the ABC, Antony Green strongly suspects Labor can mark three gains in Tasmania.
10.17am BST
Hello expats! Thanks for tuning in.
.@murpharoo Bellwether watching from the Netherlands #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/er45T0wGnX
@murpharoo following the election with the chicken god and beer in Seoul, South Korea #auspol pic.twitter.com/L93D8xEcJl
@murpharoo Democracy night snags pic.twitter.com/FXKFTpavvB
10.12am BST
Labor is looking good to win Bass, Braddon and Lyons (Tasmanian seats) with possible big swings so far. There are also big swings to Labor in the Sydney marginals of Macarthur and Macquarie but there are swings to the Liberals in the inner-Sydney seats of Reid and Banks.
Labor is doing well so far in the Brisbane seat of Forde but less well in Petrie, and Brisbane looks like a standstill. Despite the problems with the CFA, Labor appears to have gained a big swing in their seat of McEwen. The swing to Labor is much more modest in Corangamite.
10.09am BST
Sky news has just reported that the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, will not attend Bill Shorten’s election night party because of the Country Fire Authority issue. The United Firefighters Union’s Victorian secretary, Peter Marshall, has tried to head off the perception the industrial dispute in general and his union in particular have hurt Labor’s chances. Marshall told Guardian Australia the UFU had a warm reception as about 600 members handed out how-to-votes in Victorian seats including Deakin, La Trobe, Dunkley, Isaacs, Corangamite and Menzies. “There was very little pushback. There were very few volunteers. The public was really warm. People supported the firefighters and condemned the division [between professional and volunteer firefighters] or they were confused by the issue and thought it was a state issue ... We had a major presence in all the polling booths at major marginal seats. There were hardly any CFA volunteers, just a lot of Liberals beating up the controversy.”
10.07am BST
Back to you guys and your festivities. All kinds of marvellous.
@murpharoo We made democracy cupcakes mirroring the current senate for our election party! #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/EvwVdvICQa
@murpharoo election night in style… #ausvotes #bennelong #sydneyoperahouse pic.twitter.com/t3H46eHWrz
@murpharoo inducting the youngest into election night party! 3 generations #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/xHPrtHb4Rh
10.01am BST
Our Guardian Australia numbers man Ben Raue is prepared to call the following seats even though there’s only a small proportion of the vote counted.
9.54am BST
Back to Antony Green: things looking good for Labor’s Mike Kelly in Eden-Monaro on about 4% of the vote counted. That seat is currently held by Liberal Peter Hendy. Labor expects to win that seat.
Liberal Sarah Henderson is looking good in Corangamite in Victoria. Again, low numbers of votes counted. The CFA dispute has belted Labor around in Victoria. The objective for Labor in Victoria has become don’t lose seats – they are not expecting any gains tonight.
9.48am BST
You are delivering beyond my wildest dreams quite frankly. The treasurer, Scott Morrison, is on the ABC’s election panel this evening.
shut up ScoMo! @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/bx6rLAEVf1
. @murpharoo a cheeky vodka cocktail and cheese board then bubbles to (hopefully) celebrate change #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/jrbYXSw0ev
9.45am BST
The early results are consistent with a late swing to Labor but there results are not yet meaningful. I stress that. Not meaningful. Not yet.
@murpharoo things are wild in Wills - Zimbra and are pessimistic, but can't look away. pic.twitter.com/MyJYHgc8ko
@murpharoo Election party here means kiddie bedtime so far. Not like there'll be anything but speculation yet. pic.twitter.com/uFk0gAQGrJ
9.37am BST
Fires in the southern highlands ...
Election party, Taralga, Southern Tablelands, NSW. There ain't no one here but us chickens! @murpharoo #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/1mdaEYBA6T
@murpharoo my election party involves me not watching... it. But Black Books, like... It's fair enough surely? pic.twitter.com/pZCcGad0ib
9.34am BST
The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green has early results from the NSW seat of Cowper, where Rob Oakeshott is attempting to stage a comeback. Very early figures I stress, possibly completely meaningless figures, but Oakeshott is travelling well at this stage of the evening. Greens vote also quite strong in Cowper on the early figures.
9.30am BST
You guys really are the best.
#ausvotes Election party rager!!! @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/apVuUFisXJ
@murpharoo my party. Greens ginger wine, data, AFL, ABC (guardian live blog on another tab...) pic.twitter.com/dnDTNyEB78
9.28am BST
All kinds of fabulous.
@murpharoo Feet up & beers are in at the Larrimah Pub (pop11) 500km south of #DarwinNT ... #ausvotes #Larrimah pic.twitter.com/1v6KxwER4Z
9.23am BST
Exactly as it should be. I repeat. Go #ausvotes
@murpharoo @TheKouk . My election party ... It's going off !!! pic.twitter.com/051uuiLeBp
9.22am BST
A quick reminder on the core numbers before the results start flooding in. We can make an assumption that the parties enter the election with the following number of seats:
• 89 – Coalition
9.18am BST
Now this looks the stuff. Go #ausvotes
@murpharoo haloumi chips & alcoholic Ginger beer for starters pic.twitter.com/hq38eYf9HX
9.17am BST
News from the camps of Tony Windsor challenging Barnaby Joyce in New England and Rob Oakeshott challenging Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper. Oakeshott has tweeted that he has received messages suggesting some booths in Cowper ran out of ballot papers. A voter told him the booth workers would tick off the name but they could not vote. He will be lodging a complaint with the Australian Electoral Commission.
@Greens4Cowper Mel has lodged a complaint, I'll be sending in one myself, please add to the count.
News Ltd not allowed entry to Tony Windsor campaign office tonight #ausvotes @abcnews @ABCNews24 pic.twitter.com/ccuPBQ1YMt
9.16am BST
Here’s what happens when they hold the election on your wedding day ... Pics by our photographer, Jonny Weeks, in Sydney.
9.10am BST
Just before we get to facts, Labor thinks they are the beneficiaries of a late swing, attributable to voter concerns about Medicare. Both sides are now saying this election is very close. It all depends how the swing is distributed and what happens in South Australia.
9.01am BST
Polls have closed in the eastern states. Stand by for facts.
8.59am BST
The best kind of election party.
@murpharoo Our election party pic.twitter.com/z3gfc6VOcA
8.58am BST
Over on the Seven Network, Tony Abbott is being interviewed by Alan Jones. Jones asks him whether he could have won this election.
Tony Abbott:
It would have been a different campaign obviously if I’d been at the helm.
8.55am BST
Around the country it is party time.
@murpharoo getting prepared. pic.twitter.com/OZj2hPYZV7
8.50am BST
Nick Xenophon is talking to the ABC at the moment and he’s asked about how he thinks the NXT will go in the Senate tonight.
I don’t know. I’m hoping for at least three, and maybe four or five because we’re ... we’re still in with a chance in other states.
We won’t know about those seats for a number of days because of the new Senate voting system.
8.45am BST
The view of the bookies.
Betfair odds:
Coalition $1.16
Labor $6.40 #ausvotes
8.42am BST
The exit poll on Nine is 50-50. There is quite a lot of buzz around the major parties tonight about tightening in the last days but I will believe things tonight when I see them and not before.
8.34am BST
I missed the Nine news but Twitter is telling me that they have broadcast an exit poll which points to a photo finish. Now just imagine that. Imagine if we end up with a night like 2010? Now wouldn’t that be something.
Exit poll by Channel 9 pic.twitter.com/dGF0Qb2Adm
8.24am BST
If you’d like to recap the magic moment when the leaders cast their votes, here is Malcolm Turnbull with small dogs in Double Bay ...
8.19am BST
If you’ve been tuned out all day, the most interesting twist (apart from the usual sign wars and grumpiness between warring camps around booths) appears to be voters being given not entirely accurate instructions when they turned up to vote today.
Some officials working polling booths were not telling voters they could number additional boxes if they chose to do so. The relevant sentence being omitted appears below in bold.
For the House of Representatives, complete the ballot paper by placing a number one in the box next to the candidate you most prefer and numbering all other boxes in the order of your choice.
For the Senate, complete the ballot paper by numbering one to six above the line OR by numbering one to twelve below the line, in order of your choice. You can continue numbering as many additional boxes as you choose.
7.53am BST
Hello everyone and welcome to our live coverage of the 2016 election results as they happen. I hope you are all gathered with your friends and family somewhere warm, with some celebratory treats, or commiseration treats, or more straightforward anxiety eating provisions, ready for this evening’s verdict.
Polls in the eastern states close in about an hour’s time, at 6pm. This gives us a moment to gather in calm fashion and set the scene.
Continue reading...