Hobart hosts its biggest raceday of the year on Monday with the running of the $200,000 Betfair Exchange Hobart Cup. An excellent 9 event card has been put together, featuring the UBET Thomas Lyons Stakes at WFA, the Les Lees Strutt Stakes for the 3yo fillies and the Mitre 10 Elwick Stakes for the 2yos among a number of very competitive restricted-grade races. With good weather forecast in the days leading into the meeting the track should be a genuinely firm surface, with the rail moving to the 3m position from the 1150m to the Winning Post after racing in the True on Friday.
Race 1 12:57pm Tas Horse Transport Maiden (1100m)
Speed Map
Only an average tempo likely here and look for A Choice Scotch to come across from her wide draw to find the front. Berry Wise Fox, George’s Gambol, Geegees Muscle Man and Marmalady can all roll forward to be handy to the speed but most of these want to settle off the pace early. On-pacers do look advantaged by the tempo.
Major Players
A Choice Scotch has started her career well with two 2nds albeit in races run in very slow time. Back to 1100m isn’t ideal here but she is capable of working across from her wide barrier to get a pretty comfortable run near the lead. Also accepted for Friday in a 1400m maiden so if the stable elects to run her instead it is a good lead. Should get every chance and looks hard to beat.
Quirribilly Lodge is a lightly raced 5yo who resumes here after a promising first preparation where he was placed at all three starts. Had a trial leading into this and did place on debut over 1100m albeit on soft ground. Don’t think the wide gate has much effect on his chances as he will go right back and has leading rider Brendon McCoull on top. Will want a bit of pressure up front but does appeal as one of the top hopes.
George’s Gambol was well fancied when resuming but endured a tough run wide on the speed and then did a bit wrong in the straight when 6th behind Greenmount Lass and A Choice Scotch at Launceston. Drawn nicely here in 3 and should be fitter for that run. Can mix his form a bit but looks like getting the right run here and no surprise to see sharp improvement in what is a thin race.
Off The Grid was very good back to 1200m last time at Launceston and does look better suited to the sprinting trips. Career best run was probably her fresh run here over 1000m and her only try here over 1100m wasn’t too bad either. Wide gate isn’t ideal nor is a likely steady tempo but if she can get cover and be produced by Payne at the right time she can finish hard.
Berry Wise Fox is an improving type who looks like getting a gun run here from gate 2 for Siggy Carr. Last start 3rd was in race run in very slow time so some doubt on that form but no surprise if this is a similarly run race and with further improvement she can be somewhere in the finish.
Next best Geegees Muscle Man (handy 3rd last time after enjoying good run, not as well drawn this time but can be on speed which gives him his chance), Kelly’s Diva (first start in state for Nicole Luttrell, sprinting type who has placed in Victoria) and keep an eye on the market with first starter Farewell Angelina (from good stable, trials have been fair, draws nicely).
Verdict
Number of chances here and race complexion may change with A Choice Scotch and Quirribilly Lodge both down to run on Friday. George’s Gambol looks the big improver with a softer run than he endured at Launceston and he looks well placed here.
Betting Strategy
BACK – E/W – George’s Gambol for 2 units
Race 2 1:32pm MMIB Insurance Maiden/Class 1 (1600m)
Speed Map
Capacity field over the mile here but like many of these races lately it looks completely devoid of any early speed on paper. Rangaondarun should roll to the lead with perhaps Bidirectional being asked to go forward from his wide gate by Carr. Olly’s A Star, Tranter and maybe Savrajette with the blinkers on can roll forward from inside gates to be handy, while Poacher’s Son is unlikely to go forward like last time after he weakened badly there and now has the blinkers off. Those who can take up a position near the lead look to be advantaged.
Major Players
Kissed By Fire was an excellent run last time when 4th over this trip after racing wide throughout after having a month between runs. Win at previous start over 1400m was very good also and she looks a promising mare on the up. Draws a bit better here but with a slower tempo likely she will still need a bit of luck for Michelle Payne to slot in. Should be spot on for this and looks one of the better winning hopes in the race.
Genuine Art is a promising filly who ran home very well last time in a good C1 when racing in blinkers for the first time. Has shown the ability to race forward previously which would be an advantage if she could do so here but that can be difficult from the wide draw at the 1600m start. Going to need a lot of luck from the outside gate but her form is as good as anything in the race and she is a leading hope.
Olly’s A Star relished his first try at a mile last time, racing away in the straight to score a dominant win despite covering ground in the run. Draws ideally in gate 2 and can race closer to the speed than many of these which will hold him in good stead. This isn’t much harder than last time and both runs at this track have been good. Does look an obvious chance and expect him to be right in the finish.
Bidirectional was only fair last time when a well-beaten 4th behind runaway winner Olly’s A Star, which followed an unlucky 3rd on Devonport Cup day. Ran a good 2nd behind Kissed By Fire the start prior also so his form ties in alright for this. Siggy Carr takes the ride back and think she may ride him more positively than she did two starts back. Drawn wide but expecting Carr to get him right on the speed early and he may be better suited with clear air in front of him rather than taking a sit. Needs to improve on his last run but capable of turning the tables if things pan out in his favour.
Zemiro continues to race well over this distance without being able to crack it for another win. Ran home strongly last time in an unsuitably run race but may find similar tempo issues here. Will have to go back from the wide draw and there looks more depth here than last time. Consistent type so expect her to run home into the mix somewhere but just doubt whether things will go her way to allow her to score.
Next best Hell Baby (looking for the mile now but is coming through lower quality maidens and needs to improve a little), Savrajette (not hopeless in good C1 last time, blinkers go back on and probably wants this trip now) and Rangaondarun (honest but limited type who again looks suited with a comfortable run on speed and can be thereabouts).
Verdict
Good quality for this grade but race is complicated by extreme lack of obvious tempo. Kissed By Fire and Genuine Art are the ones on the up but not sure where either will end up in the run. Olly’s A Star looks pretty bombproof from the inside gate, while Bidirectional may surprise if ridden a bit more positively early.
Betting Strategy
BACK – WIN – Olly’s A Star for 4 units
BACK – WIN – Genuine Art for 2 units
BACK – WIN – Bidirectional for 1 units
Race 3 2:07pm Winning Edge Class 1 Handicap (1400m)
Speed Map
Big field to line up here but expecting just a solid tempo with Ariconte likely to take up the running. Doesn’t look to be huge pressure for the lead but there are a number of on-pacers looking to take a position, namely All Bar Madison, Our Cheerio, Hello Gertie, Jeroboam, Noblecourt and the emergency No Butts Abouter. Speed should be genuine enough to give the backmarkers their chance if they are good enough but the on-pacers will have their chance.
Major Players
Sphero has been in excellent form this preparation after joining the Peter Luttrell stable and his recent effort to run 2nd in this grade at Launceston over 1400m was arguably his best run yet. He got a long way back there in a race dominated by the on-pacers and made up considerable ground in the straight, running super sectionals in the process. Draws much better in this so may not have to get so far back and this doesn’t look any harder. Top pick and sure to be well supported.
Ariconte has been up a while but continues to race well and wasn’t far away last time when 3rd behind Claiborne King over this trip. Racing on the speed over 1400m looks to be agreeing with him and he looks like getting a comfortable run at the front end again. Has run some very good races at this track and was beaten less than 2L in the Tasmanian Guineas two starts ago so his form is very good for this. Hard to beat.
Polizei is a lightly raced 5yo gelding who resumes here with a trial under his belt. First up last time in he was a strong 3rd in BM62 grade at Devonport over a similar trip which is a decent tick for this. He didn’t have a lot of luck last campaign with wide gates to contend with but was able to place in C2 company at this track and distance behind Flying Cruiser when things went his way. Drawn for a beautiful run for Darmanin and he rates as one of the better winning hopes.
Noblecourt was a good winner fresh in Launceston, breaking his maiden over 1200m with his strong last 200m indicating this trip shouldn’t be an issue. Wide draw could prove quite trick from the 1400m start with a number of on-pacers looking to kick up inside him but he has leading rider Brendon McCoull on top to try and overcome this. Finds a pretty good C1 which can be tough for maiden winners to win again in but he looks above average and should run well.
Hello Gertie continues to race honestly over this trip and was a game effort last time behind Livermore after doing plenty of work early. Draws wide here but think Maher will be able to roll forward into a good position and all her runs at this track this time in have been very good. Gets in light with Maher’s claim and should get a good run on-speed so expect her to run gamely again and she should feature somewhere in the finish.
Next best look to be You Didn’t (far too good last time in weak maiden, will appreciate 1400m and Damien Oliver but needs to take the next step) and Demon’s Run (better for first up effort and gets blinkers back on but has wide draw to contend with).
Verdict
Top three chances all look very well suited here. Lean to Sphero from the better barrier draw this time but wary he could start under the odds. Don’t let Polizei get under your guard and Hello Gertie again appeals as a chance at longer odds.
Betting Strategy
BACK – WIN – Sphero for 4 units
BACK – WIN – Polizei for 1 unit
Race 4 2:42pm R M Worbey Constructions Class 2 Handicap (1200m)
Speed Map
Should be a genuine tempo here but expect Box Of Frogs to hold the lead from the inside draw. Before All, Secrets She Has, Extended Warranty and Luxembourg are all capable of being right on the speed while Mikayla’s Raider may kick through from the inside draw. Don’t see them going too hard here which will make things a bit harder for those back in the field.
Major Players
Trot On Candy is a promising filly who is running some nice races since being allowed to relax off the speed. Good last time behind all-the-way winner Madame George at Launceston which followed an excellent come-from-last win on Devonport Cup day. Defeated Box Of Frogs here comfortably back in November albeit after enjoying a better run. Gets in light with Maskiell’s claim and should get a nice run with cover from the middle draw. Looks a leading hope in an open race.
Magnacash is a very good staying mare in the making who has also accepted to run in the Bow Mistress on Friday. Obviously stable have a very high opinon of her and this is the much easier option. Better suited over longer trips but did break her maiden over this distance and has a big finish when in clear galloping room. Not sure she’s ideally drawn in 3 as she’ll want to be out and running early to pick them up but she has too much ability to not be right in the mix.
Extended Warranty returns to C2 grade after running an honest race in a very strong BM72 last time here at this trip. Wide draw probably suits as she needs room to overcome a flat spot in her races and she can roll forward near the speed in this. Form is good enough for a race like this and she is in well with Thornton’s claim. Finds a competitive but suitable race and should be right in the finish.
Secrets She Has found form last time with a good 2nd behind the promising D’inzeo over 1400m. Not sure back to 1200m is entirely what she wants but without great pressure early she may be able to find a spot near the lead again and should get a gun run with Damien Oliver on top. Has placings at 1200m behind the likes of Valiant Warrior, Meconsul and Gee Gees Doublejay so more than capable at the trip and she looks another genuine hope in a tough race.
Box Of Frogs was a little disappointing last time when a beaten favourite but he did a lot of work up front and was entitled to knock up late. Should get a much more comfortable run on the speed in this but is racing out of his grade up to C2 company. Always well supported and while he will need to take the next step to be winning here he gets his chance in front to show what he’s capable of.
Next best Boart (wasn’t bad last time when caught wide behind D’inzeo and impressive winner at this trip 3 starts back, gets Siggy Carr and blinkers on) and Luxembourg (fresh for this, very impressive last fresh run here in September when bolted in over 1100m, has tricky gate for Michelle Payne).
Verdict
Four quality fillies and mares doing battle here. Lean to Trot On Candy in a hard race and can give Extended Warranty one more chance but happy to work around the others if overlooked by the market.
Betting Strategy
BACK – WIN – Trot On Candy for 4 units
BACK – WIN – Extended Warranty for 2 units
Race 5 3:17pm Mitre 10 Elwick Stakes (1100m)
Speed Map
Delta D’or showed abundant speed at his only run in the Inglis Banner at Moonee Valley so expect him to drive through and hold the head here from the star Tassie filly Gee Gee Double Dee, who has incredible cruising speed herself but can be a tad tardy early. Gratwick is a bit unknown from the Peter Moody stable but is likely to be thereabouts, while Little Elsa, Zatacla and Jupiter’s Moon probably land just behind the speed.
Major Players
Gee Gee Double Dee is a freakish filly who has been dominant in all three wins so far in her career. Won as easily as you will see last time and still ran home in solid splits despite no urging from the rider. Siggy Carr regains the ride and suits the filly well as she lets her cruise along at a tempo which will have most of these under pressure to stay in touch. No reason she won’t continue on her merry winning way.
Gratwick comes here for his debut from the strong Peter Moody yard and has Damien Oliver to ride so he starts from a pretty good base. Also nominated for the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday so you would expect he has shown them plenty at home. Jump out didn’t reveal anything outstanding and he will need to be very good to beat our star filly but have to respect the stable if he takes his place here.
Delta D’or showed plenty of toe in his debut run in the Inglis Banner at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day before stopping quickly on turning and was later found to be sore. Hard to gauge how much he has in the locker but he certainly has the speed to be in the firing line here. Doubt the stable would travel if he hadn’t shown them plenty at home so expect to see much better this time but it will take something special to beat the favourite.
Hard to see any of the locals knocking off the favourite on exposed form but they are quite an even bunch. Zatacla appeals as next best after a solid 2nd behind her last time out and he draws nicely to trail her up. Mariah’s Magic ran home nicely on debut behind smart filly Hot Dipped and should be better for the outing, while Little Elsa won her only start in a small field at this track in slow time and this is a big jump. Jupiter’s Moon won his only start at Launceston in a very slow race but looks a horse with plenty of scope and with natural improvement his place chances appear as good as any. Tom Archie has plenty of ability but is still very green and doesn’t do himself any favours in the run, while mainland visitor Miss Two Pairs will need to show much more than she did when unfancied at her only start in a Kyneton maiden.
Verdict
Does look a good thing here Gee Gee Double Dee but you won’t get rich backing her. Maybe Mariah’s Magic can provide some value for those looking for a place bet.
Betting Strategy
BACK – WIN – Gee Gee Double Dee 9 units
BACK – PLACE – Mariah’s Magic for 1 unit
Race 6 3:55pm Les Lees Strutt Stakes (2100m)
Speed Map
Most of these fillies head to the 2100m for the first time which can throw up some unexpected changes to the early speed but on paper there looks to be a few on-pacers but no genuine leader. Lyndspur, She’s Rosie, Miss Choosey, Millrace and Gee Gees Top Notch can all roll forward and expect one of them to take up the running, while the mainlanders all look to settle midfield or worse on exposed form. These staying fillies events can be run at farcical tempos – see last year – so those racing on speed are likely to be advantaged.
Major Players
Alamonteel is a Victorian visitor coming off a good 4th over 2040m at Moonee Valley so the trip will be no issue. Beat older horses prior to that over a mile in BM64 grade so she is racing in good form. Should get a lovely run from barrier 3 for Michelle Payne and expect her to be strong at the finish. Looks top pick.
All That I Know is a very well-bred type out of well bred mare Lucida who was most impressive breaking her maiden status on heavy ground last time by 3 lengths over a mile. Goes to 2100m for the first time but does race like she wants the distance. Being by noted wet-track stallion More Than Ready the wet track may have flattered her win but her previous effort was also very strong. Takes a big jump in grade here but is on the up and from strong Peter Moody stable. Rates as one of the major winning chances.
Sebring Sally has been racing well in metropolitan mainland races with big weights this preparation and last start was very solid when narrowly beaten in BM70 grade at Moonee Valley. Tackles 2100m for the first time here which is a query and Oliver is likely to have to go back from the wide barrier. Have to respect Waller stable bringing her down and she has classy form so if she can run the trip out strongly you would expect her to be right in the finish.
Gee Gees Top Notch is the class Tasmanian filly of the field having won 8 of her 17 starts and over $230,000 in prizemoney. Was narrowly beaten by Jerilderie Letter in the Tasmanian Guineas before being beaten again narrowly last time when a long odds-on favourite in the 1000 Guineas. First time to this trip but bred to run it and does relax nicely in her races so no reason she won’t run it out. Siggy Carr should be able to find a good spot near the lead and she should be firmly in the mix as always.
Miss Choosey caused a boilover in the 1000 Guineas courtesy of a brilliant ride from Bulent Muhcu but she beat Gee Gees Top Notch on her merits there and now looks suited up to the 2100m. Lightly raced type but from noted stable of stayers so no doubt she will be well prepared to run the trip. Market may not have expected last win but a repeat of her effort there has her as a leading local chance and her ability to race on the speed gives her a definite chance to win again.
Next best looks to be Reigning In Paris (Craig Williams rides, won maiden last time at 1850m at Kyneton and looks suited to the trip), Millrace (gutsy effort last time when 3rd in 1000 Guineas at first go over a mile, query this trip but shapes like it will suit) and Island Tiger (ran home alright in 1000 Guineas, crying out for this trip but will give them a big start again).
Verdict
Three very good mainland chances here with a leaning to Alamonteel who has had the run over this trip. Think the value in the local runners will be Miss Choosey who can continue to improve at this longer trip.
Betting Strategy
BACK – WIN – Alamonteel for 4 units
BACK – E/W – Miss Choosey for 2 units
Race 7 4:35pm Betfair Exchange Hobart Cup (2400m)
Speed Map
A big field for this year’s Cup but on paper the tempo looks to be only fair. Mister Moneypenny and Aventador look most likely to take up the running ahead of Geegees Goldengirl and Oerter, while Milson, Quick Strike and Hugo may look to push forward from their inside draws. Not sure what Oliver does on Metaphorical from her wide draw but she has shown the ability to go forward in the past. Can’t see there being too much pressure up front which may test the backmarkers.
Major Players
1 – Metaphorical (Damien Oliver) – Classy mare from Peter Moody stable who knows how to win this Cup. Should be cherry ripe for this 5th up after a good run from the back at Flemington which followed a close up 3rd behind good gallopers Signoff and Lidari over 1700m. Awkwardly drawn in gate 14 but has the services of champion rider Damien Oliver. Finished a well-beaten 3rd at her only try over 2400m and it remains a query here but the majority of her form is in Group and Listed class and she appeals as the one to beat.
2 – Geegees Goldengirl (Siggy Carr) – Leading local hope who has targeted this race ever since dominating the 3yo filly staying events last season. Impressive all-the-way Devonport Cup win two starts back before narrow defeat in WFA Summer Cup last time. Should find a great position on the speed despite her wide draw and the distance shouldn’t be a problem. Never runs a bad race and expect her to be somewhere in the finish.
3 – Quick Strike (Craig Williams) – Honest stayer from powerful Chris Waller stable. Genuine mile and a half galloper who continues to be around the mark at this trip. Only beaten 2L in the Australian Derby last year by Mongolian Khan and hasn’t been beaten more than 2.5L in his past 7 tries at 1800m and beyond. Sure to get a gun run from Williams from gate 2 and may be able to take a position near the speed if the tempo is slower early. Should get every chance and he appeals as a leading winning hope.
4 – Gee Gee’s La Quita (Georgie Catania) – Older half-sister to Geegees Goldengirl who was placed 3rd in this event in 2014 behind Epingle. Form this preparation has been below par and she has been well beaten at both major lead up runs. Will need a sharp form turnaround to finish in the placings this time.
5 – Wales (Steven King) – Impeccably bred gelding by Redoute’s Choice out of Valkyrie Diva, who is a half-sister to the great mare Makybe Diva. Improved sharply 3 starts ago to run 2nd in the $300,000 Ballarat Cup behind Junoob and got to 2000m last time after a short break to score impressively in BM78 grade at Moonee Valley. 6yo but lightly raced and still on the up. Will go back from wide gate and may need some pressure up front but he rates as one of the genuine winning chances.
6 – Up Cups (David Pires) – Honest galloper who has gone to a new level in recent times, winning both major local lead-up races beating the likes of Geegees Goldengirl and Player One. 2400m doesn’t look like a worry on the strength of his latest win and he is in well on the minimum after winning at WFA last time. No reason why he isn’t the best local hope after his last two wins so he is clearly a winning chance with the main question mark being whether he can measure up to the mainlanders.
7 – Player One (Anthony Darmanin) – Gone to a new level this preparation with some excellent runs over shorter trips at WFA. Was an incredible run from last when 2nd in the Brighton Cup, before being just a shade disappointing in the Summer Cup when again asked to make up substantial ground from the tail of the field. Drawn 4 he may be able to settle closer in the run which would give him his chance of winning this. In with a hope.
8 – Mister Moneypenny (Boris Thornton) – Finished midfield in the Devonport Cup before very ordinary effort last time in BM82 grade at Launceston. Looks one of the on-speed runners here but will need to improve sharply on recent racing to be a place chance.
9 – Beliveau (Michelle Payne) – Ran on well for 2nd last time out at Moonee Valley in BM70 grade but this looks much harder. Promising jumper who has run some handy races at this distance range including a 4th in the Roy Higgins Quality over 2600m last May. Don’t think he has the class of the other interstate runners and don’t expect Payne to be riding a longshot winner of this Cup…
10 – Hugo (Bulent Muhcu) – promising stayer who comes here off a good win in BM82 grade last Wednesday night in Launceston. Tried the 2400m in the Launceston Cup last year but was beaten a long way behind Genuine Lad. Does his best racing in Hobart with his most recent run here being a slashing 2nd in BM82 grade over 1400m. Don’t know if he’s good enough to be winning but from the good gate he appeals as one of the better longshot chances in the race.
11 – Aventador (Damien Thornton) – Has shown sharp improvement at this preparation to go from BM62 grade to a Devonport Cup 4th placing. Last run behind Hugo last week was a bit plain so while he should get a good run on the speed he looks outclassed here.
12 – Oerter (Kyle Maskiell) – On-pace galloper who has gradually improved since joining the Scott Brunton stable from Robert Smerdon earlier in the season. Last run was full of merit when 2nd behind Hugo after doing a bit of work on speed. Won his only try at this trip and can go forward and make his own luck but lacks the class of some of these and looks a place hope at best.
13 – Smoke ‘N’ Whisky (Kim Moore) – Only tackled 2100m for the first time two starts ago and has run well both times at the trip, finishing 3rd behind Hugo at his latest try. 2400m looks ok on that effort but this is much harder and a nice midfield effort looks his best case scenario.
14 – Milson (Luke Currie) – Honest stayer who ran reasonably in both the Brighton and Summer Cups but does have some ground to make up on the leading local hopes. Ideally drawn in 1 and looks a good thing to run the trip. Needs a career best here and prefer him as a sneaky place hope.
15 – Settler’s Stone (Jarrod Todd) – Young stayer on the way up who meets his biggest test to date here. Ran home well for a close up 4th behind Hugo last time so that form ties in alright with these minor place hopes. 2400m looks like it will suit but he is probably a season away from having a genuine chance in this company. Promising type but minor place claims at best here.
Verdict
Six genuine hopes here – the three mainlanders Metaphorical, Quick Strike and Wales, and the three leading locals Up Cups, Geegees Goldengirl and Player One. Lean to the invaders and think if Metaphorical gets a good run throughout thanks to a bit of Oliver magic she is the one to beat. Quick Strike looks likely to get every chance for Williams from 2 and looks the main danger. The leading local chances don’t look to be as strong as recent victors have been but they are honest and will run the trip so they’ll get their chance. Hugo looks to be the best longshot for backers looking for bigger odds.
Betting Strategy
BACK – WIN – Metaphorical for 6 units
BACK – WIN – Quick Strike for 3 units
BACK – WIN – Player One for 1 unit
Race 8 5:15pm Thomas Lyons Stakes (1400m)
Speed Map
Small field at WFA but we might see a genuine tempo with Meconsul, Ollie’s Gold and the Victorian galloper Ballinaclash all capable of going forward early. The champ Admiral should get a beautiful trail behind them with Geegees Soprano able to take a position inside him. Speed won’t be anything crazy in front but should be enough to give most their chance here.
Major Players
Admiral is the undisputed WFA champion in this state and couldn’t look any more suited in this. Form this prep has been super with wins at his past 3 starts and looks like getting the gun run again here. Has a turn of foot which none of these can match and with even luck he will be far too good here. Looks the winner.
Perplexing is an interesting runner, coming here fresh after a failed staying campaign last time in. Loves racing on her home track and hasn’t missed a place at this trip in 4 goes. Will appreciate a genuine tempo and can finish hard late to be a genuine place chance.
Ballinaclash comes here for the Amy Johnston stable after a win in BM78 grade at Pakenham last time. Looks a very consistent type and 1400m looks his go. Should get a decent run on speed and looks one of the better place hopes but doesn’t look to have the class of the favourite.
Meconsul took on this grade for the first time last time out in the UBET.com Stakes and ran a gallant 3rd behind Admiral after taking up the running. Has won twice at this 1400m trip as a 3yo and likely to roll forward again to overcome the wider draw. Hard to see him turning the tables on Admiral from last time but another honest effort has him in the place mix here.
Dream Roller has had a month off since running a game 3rd in the Devonport Cup and is probably suited at this trip fresh. Think he will settle in behind them from gate 2 but probably capable of going forward if Moore desires. This is a step up from racing in handicaps on the minimum but he is a much improved horse this time in and can challenge for the placings.
Next best Geegees Soprano (should get good run for Siggy from 4, good first up in easier grade, 1400m form bit shaky) and Powercharged (solid win last time in fast run 1400m at Launceston, won 3 of 4 at this trip but major step up in grade).
Verdict
Can’t go past Admiral in this so sit back and enjoy one of the best gallopers this state has seen in recent times. Quite an open race for the minor placings and wouldn’t surprise to see Perplexing run home into a place, especially if there is a run-on pattern.
Betting Strategy
BACK – WIN – Admiral for 9 units
BACK – PLACE – Perplexing for 2 units
Race 9 5:55pm Tassie Instant Marquees Benchmark 72 Handicap (1400m)
Speed Map
Big field for the last and looks to be a heap of early speed, with Lady Jane, Blood Orange, Pengalas Gee Gee and D’inzeo all happy to lead and run along. Expect they will run along quickly in front of Espry, Liluka Belle and the emergency Finalargee. Every horse should get their chance on the hot tempo if good enough.
Major Players
Stella Etoile continues to race in excellent form and comes here after a fast-finishing 2nd behind Powercharged in this grade at Launceston. Does seem to do her best racing at that track but last run here was a very good 2nd behind Follow My Dust when she raced wide all the way. Loves a fast tempo and couldn’t ask for a better rider than D. Oliver. Drawn out probably suitable by this time of the day and expect to see her rushing down the outside late in the piece. Looks one of the leading chances.
Hyperbole is a smart mare who loves this track and has a good record over 1400m. Wasn’t really suited last time behind Powercharged but didn’t disgrace herself. Better suited back here and draws inside to get the cover she enjoys. Likely tempo is a bonus and if she can repeat her effort two starts back when winning here over this distance she should be right in the finish.
O’Reillys Geegee is a good galloper who has the blinkers come off after finishing down the track with them on last time. Happy to forgive that run after he covered a lot of ground in the run and gets a more experienced rider this time in Boris Thornton. His claim has him in nicely here and he ran very well in a similar race here two starts ago when a close up 4th in a high pressure race behind the smart Tshahitsi. Won’t get quite as far back as a few of these which may advantage if they go really hard in front and looks to have found his type of race. One of the better chances.
Livermore has shown great improvement this preparation and is on track towards a long term goal of the Launceston Cup. Not really suited here coming back from a mile but will appreciate a strong tempo to chase. Recent win in this grade at Launceston was very good and a repeat has him right in the mix here despite this being harder. Has to be rated a chance.
D’inzeo is another promising galloper who has won 3 of his 5 starts with 2 of them already coming at this 1400m trip. Very game last time to fight back and win after a fast all-the-way win at the start before. This is toughest test yet and he finds plenty of pressure for the lead here so Thornton may look to take the sit but feel he is best suited in fast run races as he looks a very strong type rather than having a sharp turn of foot. Appeals as best of the on-pacers and most likely to score if the backmarkers can’t get into the race.
Next best in a very wide race looks to be Aquila Reale (smart mare on the up, huge run last time from the back in easier grade, should appreciate strong tempo), Lady Jane (keeps improving this prep, good last time, on-pace pressure won’t help) and <a st