Bookmaker Money Back Specials, Bonus Bets and Boosted Odds/Winnings offer an excellent opportunity to create optimal betting situations for savvy Betfair punters
Growing tired of losing, The Promo Arber crafted a niche strategy to change his unprofitable behaviour. Teaming up with The Hub, he’s produced an article to educate Betfair customers to take advantage of bookmaker promotions to lock in a profit no matter what the result of an event – this is know as arbitrage betting.
“The wagering landscape in Australia is rife with bookmakers trying to get your business. They’re all offering promotions in order to get you depositing and eventually losing your hard earned to them. If you’re planning on taking the bookmakers on with these promotions, bet smart by utilising Betfair’s Exchange platform to lock in a profit”
His introductory article into promotional arbitrage will cover the following:
Background into his story
The basics of arbitrage betting
Promotional trading strategies
PROMO ARBER - BACKGROUND
I was always drawn to the world of wagering. I loved sport and adored the thrill my bets added to each event with the possibility of making some extra cash. But I’ll be honest with you; I was your typical mug punter.
I placed bets with little to no analysis of each event and each week without fail you could count on me to be hopeful that this would be the time my eight leg multi bet finally came off – not surprisingly, it very rarely did. The pain I would feel losing my hard earned each week would always outweigh the feeling of winning that same amount ever did.
I grew tired of throwing my money away so I set off on the course with the objective to no longer be one of the bookmaker’s favourite losing customers. I needed to bet better, and I yearned to bet smarter, in order to start winning. It is with this at the forefront of my mind that I developed an arbitrage betting strategy.
WHAT IS ARBITRAGE BETTING?
Arbitrage betting has existed since the beginnings of bookmaking, but has risen to prominence in recent years with the growth of online bookmakers and the speed and ease at which bets can be placed. I discovered arbitrage in my search for a profitable method to bet and to put an end to my dismal losing streak.
Arbitrage requires placing bets on all outcomes of an event where the sum of all probabilities is less than 100% when backing and greater than 100% when laying – resulting in profits regardless of the outcome of the event. It is with these principles of arbitrage in mind and placing bets that cover all outcomes on an event, you too can incorporate this method of punting to your arsenal to become a profitable promotional punter.
WEEKLY PROMOTIONS
Each week we are bombarded with bookmaker’s weekly promotions and specials through their copious amounts of advertising. These offers are to entice you to gamble more with the respective companies but you can use them to your advantage to lock in profits or create opportunities with minor risk for large returns. The offers can range from:
1. Deposit Bonuses & Bonus Bets
‘Receive a bonus bet if your selection doesn’t win on eligible races this Spring carnival’
2. Winnings Bonus or Boosted Odds
‘Place a fixed odds bet on the Melbourne Cup and if your bet wins we’ll give you an extra 50% of your winnings’
3. Refunded bets in the event of a specific event occurring
‘Cash back if your State of Origin team leads at any point throughout the match and goes on to lose’
The ability to lay bets on the Exchange with Betfair is the key factor that allows us to bet on these events in the manner below and have the opportunity to create optimal betting situations.
HOW TO PROFIT FROM WEEKLY PROMOTIONS
1. DEPOSIT BONUSES & BONUS BETS
Sign up bonus promotions
‘Receive a bonus bet offer up to $500 when you place your first bet’
Deposit Bonus Promotions
‘Have your next deposit matched with bonus bets up to $250’
Winning Bonus Promotions
‘Place a winning bet on the Melbourne Cup and receive a bonus bet up to $100’
Refund Bonus Promotions
‘Have your first greyhound losing bet matched with a bonus bet up to $50’
As you can see, bonus bets can be given in a variety of different ways. However, with each bonus bet you are able to lock in profits by laying off the bonus bets placed though the use of the Betfair Exchange.
BONUS BET EXAMPLE
Your account has just received a $500 deposit bonus bet and you are looking to profit from it. Unfortunately, despite bonus bets first appearing very attractive, they often are accompanied with a number of terms and conditions.
Two of these being that you are only entitled to the winnings from the bet placed, not the original $500 stake as you would receive with a regular bet and that you must place the bet at odds of $1.50 or greater.
You could place your $500 bonus bet on a $1.50 favourite and in the event it wins get a return of 50% from the bet – $250. However, if you knew you could choose to get a return of 75% regardless of your selection winning or losing would you be interested in learning how to do so? I’ll show you how to do just that.
PROFIT FROM THE BONUS BET
English Premier League – Everton v Arsenal
A) Back bet $500 Bonus Bet on Everton to Win at $7.00 with the Bookmaker
B) Lay $394.74 on Everton to not win at $7.65
If Everton does not win
A) $500 bonus bet will be lost – $0 actual loss
B) $394.74 lay bet wins – $375 win taking into account 5% commission
Result: $375 profit
If Everton wins
A) $500 x $7.00 – $500 stake = $3,000 win
B) $394.74 x $7.65 = $2,625 loss
Result: $375 profit
2. WINNINGS BONUS OR BOOSTED ODDS
This is an offer that is increasingly being promoted throughout the betting marketplace. To take advantage of this opportunity, there are a number of different betting approaches you can take that range from bets that have little risk to bets that have maximum reward for a slightly larger risk.
Maximum Profit
Large potential win while having a small risk. You must select the winning horse to profit.
Minimum Risk
Maximum potential win possible while having a loss of $0. You must select the winning horse to profit.
Even Profit Regardless of Result
Winning position no matter what the result of the race. Your horse can win or lose, but either way you win.
Let us take a look of how you would place your bets in each of the above betting approaches with an example.
It’s the 2015 Melbourne Cup and you have been offered a 50% bonus on winnings up to a max stake of $100.
Maximum Profit Example
A) Place a $100 WIN bet on Protectionist at $8 with the Bookmaker.
B) Place a $89.39 WIN Lay bet on Protectionist at $9 with Betfair.
If Protectionist wins:
A) $700 profit + $350 profit from 50% on winnings = $1050 profit
B) -$715.12 loss
Result: $334.88 profit
If Protectionist loses:
A) -$100 loss
B) $84.92 profit ($89.39 lay profit minus $4.47 with 5% exchange commission)
Result: -$15.08 loss
The overall result from this bet was a $334.88 profit, with having only risked $15.08 in the event Protectionist lost the race. Through this method of betting, we were able to effectively create the odds for Protectionist to win of $23.20, well over the $8 market price of the horse.
Minimum Risk Example
A) Place a $100 WIN bet on Protectionist at $8 with the Bookmaker.
B) Place a $105.26 WIN lay bet on Protectionist at $9 with Betfair.
If Protectionist wins:
A) $700 profit + $350 profit from 50% on winnings = $1050 profit
B) $842.08 loss
Result: $207.92 profit
If Protectionist loses:
A) -$100 loss
B) $100 win ($105.27 win minus $5.27 with 5% exchange commission)
Result: $0 profit/loss
Even Profit Regardless of Result
A) Place a $100 WIN bet on Protectionist at $8 with the Bookmaker.
B) Place a $128.49 WIN lay bet on Protectionist at $9 with Betfair.
If Protectionist wins:
A) $700 profit + $350 profit from 50% on winnings = $1050 profit
B) $1027.92 loss
Result: $22.08 profit
Protectionist loses:
A) -$100 loss
B) $122.07 win ($128.49 win minus $6.42 with 5% exchange commission)
Result: $22.07 profit
3. REFUNDED BETS
In the 2015 State of Origin three match series William Hill, Centrebet and Tom Waterhouse all offered the promotion that if your team lead at any point during the match but went on to lose, your staked bet would be refunded as cash up to $100.
In order to take advantage of the offer in Game 1 of the series, you would place the following bets on the match odds market.
A) $100 Back bet on NSW at $2.10 with William Hill
B) $100 Back bet on QLD at $1.75 with Tom Waterhouse
C) $100 Lay bet on NSW at $2.15 with Betfair
D) $100 Lay bet on QLD at $1.80 with Betfair
QLD went on to win the match 11-10 with a lead changing early during the game.The bets placed resulted as below:
QLD Winning & Lead Change Results
A) $0 position ($100 stake refunded due to lead change)
B) $75 profit ($100 x $1.75)
C) $100 profit ($100 backers stake)
D) $80 loss ($80 Lay Liability)
Total Lay Position +19
*Commission charged on +$20 position ($100 – $80) with Betfair. Net Profit = $19 ($20 x .05 = $1 commission)
The overall result was a $94 profit.
The worst case scenario would have only risked $6 in the event the lead change did not occur and if QLD won. Through this method of betting, we were able to effectively create odds of the lead change to be $8 which is well over the odds for the market.
ALL POSSIBLE RESULTS
The use of bonus bets together with the betting Exchange to lock in profits is one of the most profitable methods of Promotional Arbitrage betting, but with higher profits comes greater complexity. In the next edition of the Promo Arber Series we will delve deeper into the intricacies surrounding this method of betting from how to receive the maximum return on free bets, balance profits from each bet to account for turnover conditions and mitigate the risk involved.
There are many different ways to engage with promotional arbitrage and above I have covered just a small number of methods. If this method of betting interests you, I encourage you to keep searching for ways in which to take advantage of promotional offers in the market place and become a more intelligent punter as you strive to bet better.
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