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Bonafini: ‘Scioli will be surrounded by VP, Congress’
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Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo head Hebe de Bonafini talks about Milani, the Herald
Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo head Hebe Pastor de Bonafini is one of the most recognizable faces of the Argentine human rights movement. From a mere group of mothers that would originally meet every Thursday to demand justice and the whereabouts of their missing children, Bonafini managed to transform the group into a world-renowned institution.
Not one to shy away from controversy, Bonafini has also been criticized for opinions and actions that some say contradict and have even hurt the human rights movement. In an interview with the Herald, Bonafini spoke about why she decided to stand by Army Chief César Milani, who is accused of crimes against humanity, and her opinion on the new Daniel Scioli-Carlos Zannini presidential ticket.
Why do you think you are one of the most emblematic figures of the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo?
Because I say what no one else does in the Plaza de Mayo. Esther Ballestrino de Careaga — the Forcibly disappeared Mother of the Plaza de Mayo— taught me an important lesson once: “The person who has the microphone, has the power.” And that’s true.
What’s your relationship with Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo leader Estela Barnes de Carlotto like?
Estela thinks her grandson is the best, and it’s not like that. You can’t go to the Mirtha Legrand TV show and say that you just came from shopping for clothes in Paris, because you don’t have time to buy them here. You shouldn’t try to get on the cover of the Gente or Caras magazines. This hurts the movement, which should be sacred for everyone, that is the difference.
Were the human rights groups more united before the dictatorship ended?
Yes and no. The Mothers were all together and the Grandmothers had just separated. Nobel Peace prize winner Adolfo Pérez Esquivel acted like he was saint with sword.
In the 1985 trial against the Junta leaders, there is a story about when they court forced you to remove the Mother’s emblematic handkerchief…
Yes, prosecutors Julio Strassera and Luis Moreno Ocampo removed it from me, but I had another hidden in my pocket. I put it on, and the human rights organizations instead of being happy that I was fighting for a symbol, began to protest saying that the only thing I was accomplishing was delaying the trial.
Several human rights leaders, such as Barnes de Carlotto or Pérez Esquivel, changed their opinion about Jorge Bergoglio’s actions during the last military dictatorship after he was appointed pope. Why did you change yours?
Because he is another Bergoglio now. I don’t know which one is the real one now, if it was the one who was in Buenos Aires or the one in Rome. In Buenos Aires, I had terrible problems with him, when we organized sit-ins in the Cathedral, He used to close the bathrooms on us, and I would make makeshift bathrooms in the Cathedral.
But have you changed your view about his past during the dictatorship? For example, Bergoglio denied knowing there were snatched babies…
He can say what he wants, but he knew because there is a letter from (Grandmothers founder) Alicia de la Cuadra’s family to Bergoglio asking him to help search for their grandchild during the military dictatorship. The family has it. That is why I’m not sure which Bergoglio is the real one.
Are you going to meet Pope Francis?
I haven’t yet. We frequently exchange messages. He invited me to an event on July 25 but I will only meet him if he complies with my request to give a mass re-vindicating the Third World priests killed and forcibly disappeared. He said he would.
Why did the mothers of the Plaza de Mayo separate into two different groups, the Association of the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo and the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo-Founding Line?
It was in 1986. We had differences over compensations for victims, the exhumation of bodies. There was also a difference in class. We were more working class and the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo-Founding Line had a better social standing. They also claimed I was a very authoritarian in certain things, but I don’t care what they said.
What is the problem with the exhumation of bodies?
They started to exhume the bodies and announce it every day. It would make the youth scared and then anthropologists came sent by the US.
Do you mean forensic expert Clyde Snow?
Yes. The Yankees trained the military to kill our children and then sent anthropologists to identify those they had killed. This was crazy, so we rejected this. I will never recognize the death of our children.
What do you think about the Scioli and Zannini presidential ticket?
I’m still analyzing it but I still think the same about Scioli, I haven’t changed my opinion. However, I love Zannini. He is a great person. He helped me a lot, I don’t need an interview to speak with him, I can go to him directly.
But do you think it makes a probable Scioli administration more positive?
Of course, because Scioli won’t be able to go in any direction, he will be surrounded. The vice-president and congress will be of the Victory Front (FpV). It’s like putting a fence around the tree you planted so that it grows in a certain way.
If you could change an error from your past what would it be?
I think I would have been much tougher at the beginning, we were very innocent. We didn’t think the military leaders were murderers. But, in 1979, when we started reading reports about the clandestine detention centres, we finally understood what was going on.
What is the relation between the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo and the Herald like?
Although the Herald spoke well of the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo, they would also praise the fight against the “terrorists,” who were our children. So, I don’t understand why there is so much praise of the Herald, when the paper was also happy that they were killing our children. They would say just the same as Clarín and La Nación said, that the terrorists died in gunfight, when it really was all staged and a lie. Our children were executed.
But one of the arguments is that the Herald couldn’t be too critical, so the government wouldn’t censure it. It was a balancing act.
Everyone has arguments, but I don’t agree with those arguments.
Why do you support Army chief César Milani who is accused of crimes against humanity?
Look, I know the Mother of the Plaza de Mayo who makes that accusation. She’s one of ours, but they invented this accusation with (Clarín media group journalist Jorge) Lanata. They first said that someone called Sanguinetti had taken her son, so it couldn’t have been Milani. They did it to ruin it for him, because they don’t want him to be there.
But, there is a complaint against him in the Nunca Más report of La Rioja in the 1980s…
That was inserted in there afterwards. It never really existed. They invented that now. Didn’t you see that (Mother of the Plaza de Mayo-Founding Line) Nora Cortiñas submitted a suit against Milani claiming he kidnapped her son. Now, he all of a sudden kidnapped 40 people.
But if there is an accusation, don’t you think the government should at least appoint someone with an impeccable record that can’t be accused of crimes against humanity, as a standard for appointing army chiefs?
When I believe in a person, I will defend them until they are in jail. Meanwhile, I can’t change my opinion. Argentine ambassador to the Organization of the American States (OAS) Nilda Garré and late president Néstor Kirchner wouldn’t have introduced me to a bad guy. Garré told me a thousand times it was a lie, and he showed me where he was, the hours and days.
But, don’t you think it’s too high of political cost for the Mothers?
No, we are above that. I don’t care what they say. For example, when the former Navy Mechanics School (ESMA) concentration camp was given to us, people criticized us for constructing on it and doing other things in a place of death. We wanted to put life into death.
And wasn’t the “Shared Dreams” embezzlement case another high cost to pay for your organization?
We are working to pay the debt now. The Judiciary isn’t really investigating much nor advancing the case. They fear the Schocklenders, because Sergio threatens them. We are paying the debt for our sons, not for us. I wouldn’t mind dying and leaving the debt, but I tell the Mothers we can’t do that and dirty the name of our children. We need to pay until the end.
@delcarril
Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo head Hebe Pastor de Bonafini is one of the most recognizable faces of the Argentine human rights movement. From a mere group of mothers that would originally meet every Thursday to demand justice and the whereabouts of their missing children, Bonafini managed to transform the group into a world-renowned institution.
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WEDNESDAY, June 24th
Too Quick on the Draw: Militarism and the Malpractice of Diplomacy in America —
Bedrock Arguments on Why Diplomacy Matters!
1. BUENOS AIRES MARKET BOOMS AS ARGENTINA’S ECONOMY STAGNATES (Financial Times)
2. ARGENTINE BLACK-MARKET PESO WEAKENS ON CONCERN CONTROLS TO STAY (Bloomberg News)
3. HEAD OF ARGENTINA’S ARMY, CESAR MILANI, STEPS DOWN; LONG ACCUSED OF HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS (Fox News)
4. ARGENTINA: STUDYING AND WORKING POSES NEW CHALLENGES FOR YOUTH (Inter Press Service)
5. BUENOS AIRES MOTOR SHOW 2015: MERCEDES ADDS VITO, CHERY INTRODUCES NEW MODELS (IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis)
1. BUENOS AIRES MARKET BOOMS AS ARGENTINA’S ECONOMY STAGNATES (Financial Times)
By Benedict Mander in Buenos Aires
June 23, 2015
While Buenos Aires sleeps, La Salada roars to life. By 3am, shoppers are chaotically barging their way through the narrow passageways of Latin America’s largest informal market, hauling sacks bulging with anything from fake branded clothing to pirate DVDs.
“Look at this, just 135 pesos!” exclaims a satisfied Rodrigo Vega as he brandishes a pair of jeans, explaining that the price, about $15 at the overvalued official exchange rate, is at least a fifth of what they might cost in a more upmarket Argentine shopping centre.
For Mr Vega, like many other Argentines struggling to get by on wages sapped by double-digit inflation and a flatlining economy, it was worth the seven-hour bus ride from the interior to get to La Salada, which has annual revenues of at least $3bn, according to organisers. Others come from as far afield as Paraguay and Brazil to join the hundreds of thousands that on market days scour as many as 40,000 wire-mesh stalls jammed into warehouses on the banks of a putrid river in the rundown outskirts of Buenos Aires.
Its popularity first exploded during the country’s economic collapse at the start of this century as bargain-hunting Argentines were drawn in by rock-bottom prices of textiles made in local sweatshops. But La Salada is booming once again, its popularity an ironic bookmark to nearly 13 years of presidential rule by Cristina Fernández and her deceased husband, Néstor Kirchner, who came to power in 2003 after Argentina’s 2001 default and subsequent devaluation.
“During the bad times, La Salada took off, but when things got better [during the commodity boom] people had got used to coming here so it kept growing,” said Jorge Castillo, the public face of La Salada and the administrator of its biggest warehouse. He says the market sells at least $20m of merchandise on open days, with annual sales rivalling those of all of Argentine e-commerce of about $4.4bn.
“Now things are bad again, people keep on buying more and more here. Many can’t make it to the end of the month,” added Mr Castillo, complaining of Argentina’s stagnating economy.
Now things are bad again, people keep on buying more and more here. Many can’t make it to the end of the month
– Jorge Castillo, administrator of La Salada’s biggest warehouse
Tweet this quoteAlthough Ms Fernández claimed during a trip last week to Europe that less than 5 per cent of Argentines live in poverty — after the government stopped publishing its much-questioned poverty statistics in 2013 — independent groups estimate that more than 25 per cent of the population had been pushed under the poverty line by last year when prices rose as much as 40 per cent.
As Ms Fernández reaches the end of her presidency, with elections due in October that are expected to produce a more market-friendly administration, she is fiercely defending her political record. It is part of an effort to shore up support among her largely poor power base in order to maintain some influence once she leaves office.
Although La Salada has been blacklisted by the Office of the US Trade Representative because of its counterfeit produce — the logos of brands like Adidas, Nike or Lacoste catch the eye at every turn — its popularity has protected it from the kind of heavy-handed government intervention that is normal elsewhere in the country.
In fact, the government has even invited representatives of La Salada on trade missions to countries like Angola and Vietnam in an effort to export its business model, which reduces costs by cutting out the middle man.
“Now it is a place of progress, not just of survival,” says Sebastián Hacher, the author of a book on La Salada who highlights its “brutal contradictions”, at once epitomising Argentina’s darker side and its flair for creativity in the face of adversity.
It all started in 1991 when a group of Bolivian immigrants first set up stalls at La Salada to sell their manufactured wares directly to consumers. Local merchants were struggling to compete with cheap imports in the early years of the presidency of free marketeer Carlos Menem, who had just slashed trade barriers and pegged the peso to the dollar.
Shortly afterwards, Mr Castillo bought up land at La Salada, so called because it was formerly a saltwater spa that had been spoiled by industrial pollution. It was a canny investment that allowed him to transform from a small-time shoemaker into a powerful business magnate and local political boss.
Mr Castillo dismisses accusations of tax evasion as bad-mouthing by Argentina’s “bloodthirsty” traditional business elites who are simply afraid of losing out on juicy profits. “Argentine businessmen don’t know how to compete. They don’t want to pay taxes, they want easy credit, they want cheap dollars. They want paradise, to live like kings,” he says.
Now, Mr Castillo is hoping to give US businesses a run for their money too, with plans to open a version of the fair in Miami.
2. ARGENTINE BLACK-MARKET PESO WEAKENS ON CONCERN CONTROLS TO STAY (Bloomberg News)
By Camila Russo
June 23, 2015
Argentina’s peso fell to a four-month low in the illegal street market on speculation the successor to President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will retain currency controls.
After about three months of the black-market peso hovering around 12.6 per dollar, it climbed almost 3 percent in the past week as Daniel Scioli, the Buenos Aires provincial governor who is running for president with the ruling party, gained in polls and appointed a running mate loyal to Fernandez. Illegal exchange houses face increased police raids, drying up liquidity and contributing to the plunge, according to Gustavo Quintana, a trader at Rabello & Cia. in Buenos Aires.
“The political climate is making people nervous and driving them to the dollar,” Quintana said by phone from Buenos Aires. “The controls make it worse. They exacerbate the move.”
The black-market peso, known as the blue, plunged 1.5 percent to 13.24 per dollar Tuesday as of 2:22 p.m. New York, the weakest level since Feb. 5. The official peso, subject to daily intervention by the central bank, was little changed at 9.06.
Fernandez has banned most foreign-exchange transactions since her 2011 re-election to curb capital outflows, causing the illegal currency market to flourish.
The gap between the official and black-market rate narrowed since the illegal currency touched a record 15.95 per dollar in September on speculation whoever is elected in October will dismantle currency controls.
Midyear bonuses increased pesos circulating in the market, adding to dollar demand, Quintana said.
3. HEAD OF ARGENTINA’S ARMY, CESAR MILANI, STEPS DOWN; LONG ACCUSED OF HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS (Fox News)
June 23, 2015
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina – The head of Argentina’s army, long accused of human rights violations, has resigned.
A brief army statement issued Tuesday says Maj. Gen. Cesar Milani submitted his resignation for personal reasons.
The 60-year-old Milani has been charged in the disappearance of soldier Alberto Ledo in 1976 in the northern province of Tucuman and with torturing two members of the same family in the northeastern province of La Rioja. The cases have yet to be tried in court. Milani denies the allegations.
President Cristina Fernandez’s decision in 2013 to name him head of the army was sharply criticized by human rights groups.
Thousands of people were killed or disappeared during the South American nation’s military dictatorship between 1976 and 1983. In the late 1970s, Milani was a lieutenant and intelligence expert.
4. ARGENTINA: STUDYING AND WORKING POSES NEW CHALLENGES FOR YOUTH (Inter Press Service)
By Fabiana Frayssinet
23 June 2015
BUENOS AIRES, Jun. 23, 2015 (IPS/GIN) – Until not too long ago, young people in Argentina faced a choice: whether to study or drop out and go to work. But now most adolescents in Argentina who work also continue to study – a change that poses new challenges for combating school dropout, repetition and truancy, as well as the circle of poverty.
The change is revealing, according to Néstor López at the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation’s International Institute for Education Planning (IIEP UNESCO), which together with the International Labour Organisation (ILO) produced the report “Trabajo infantil y trayectorias escolares protegidas en Argentina” on child labour and education, launched this month, which discusses the new situation.
“When you analysed what was happening with teenagers 20 years ago, you saw two different situations,” López said in an interview with IPS. “There were adolescents in school and adolescents who worked.”
“But what you see now is that school enrollment rates have gone up significantly, which has meant to some extent a reduction in their rates of participation in the labour market, but has also meant an increase in the proportion of adolescents who both study and work,” he said.
In 2013, practically all children in Argentina between the ages of five and 14 and 84 percent of adolescents between 15 and 17 were in school, the study says.
Gustavo Ponce, an ILO expert in prevention and eradication of child labour, said measures like the 2006 National Education Law, which made education obligatory until the last year of secondary school (17 or 18 years of age), contributed to the new trend of adolescents working and studying at the same time.
“Progress has also been made in terms of legislation and regulations, with a law that raised the minimum working age to 16, which included the question of protection of adolescent workers aged 16 and 17,” Ponce told IPS.
He was referring to a law that protects young people from heavy or dangerous work, or work that makes it impossible for them to attend school or endangers their health.
He was also referring to the 2013 reform of the penal code, which made child labour a crime.
In their report, the ILO and UNESCO mentioned these measures as well as others, such as the Universal Child Allowance cash transfer programme, which have helped discourage child labour by boosting the incomes of poor families.
“Yes, you could say there has been a policy to eradicate child labour,” said Ponce.
López said that what is needed now is to continue improving school enrollment and attendance among adolescents. According to the new study, of the children between the ages of five and 13 who both work and attend school, approximately one-third repeat the year, compared to 13 percent of children who do not work.
With regard to truancy, the report cites statistics from a Labour Ministry survey of activities among children and adolescents, pointing out that 20 percent of those who both work and study frequently miss school, compared to 10 percent of those who only attend school.
And in the case of adolescents who work, 26 percent do not go to school, and 43 percent of those who do attend school are held back. Among those who only study, 27 percent repeat the year.
“It’s better than if they were just working,” said López. “It’s good for kids who are working to also be studying, preparing for their future. You could say it’s a positive thing if the kids who have to work can also go to school.”
Overall, though, “it’s negative because what the statistics, studies and common sense show is that these kids have a lower quality educational experience, because they don’t have time to do their homework, they don’t have time to study, they go to school tired, they miss school more, and they get less out of the educational experience for different reasons,” he added.
According to the Labour Ministry, child labour was reduced 66 percent from 2004 to 2012 – from 450,000 children working in 2004 to 180,000 in 2012.
But another concern are less visible forms of child labour, such as unpaid housework and caregiving, which especially affect girls and young women, including caring for younger siblings, cleaning the house, fixing meals, and taking care of small barnyard animals.
“Educational level is one of the main mechanisms used by the labour market to select workers. Access or lack of access to formal education is one of the aspects most heavily associated with the process of intergenerational accumulation of social disadvantage,” says the report.
Among the measures to encourage school attendance, the ILO proposes improving the network of free public services that support caregivers, including childcare centres, preschools, and double shifts in schools. In Argentina, schoolchildren attend either the morning or the afternoon shift. But full-day schools are becoming more common in low-income areas, enabling mothers to work.
The ILO also proposes campaigns to combat certain beliefs or customs, especially in rural areas.
“When we interview parents, for example, it’s clear that they think it’s normal to feed and milk the livestock before going to school, as if it were a way to help out at home and a positive learning experience rather than work that children do at home,” the report says.
The trade unions, meanwhile, say the concept of eradicating child labour should also be included in the educational curriculum.
Hernán Rugirello, with the Confederación General del Trabajo central trade union’s social research centre, told IPS about an initiative carried out by the union in Mar del Plata, a city 400 km south of Buenos Aires. With the help of the teachers’ union, the issues surrounding child labour have begun to be taught in schools there.
“It’s important to put this problem on the agenda, so that young people will also start understanding it and will become agents of transmission of knowledge, bringing the issues home with them,” he said.
5. BUENOS AIRES MOTOR SHOW 2015: MERCEDES ADDS VITO, CHERY INTRODUCES NEW MODELS (IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis)
By Stephanie Brinley
23 June 2015
The seventh annual Buenos Aires International Motor show happens this week. Mercedes-Benz will announce sales and production of the mid-size commercial van, Vito, for Argentina. The Vito will be produced in Argentina beginning in June 2015, and will be exported to other countries in the region. The rollout of the Vito is part of a larger “Mercedes-Benz Vans goes global” push, and follows introduction of the Vito in the US market (badged as the Metris). Chery displayed the T21 and M16, which are due to be launched in Argentina in 2016. In a statement, the company called them its “major strategic models.” Chery already offers the QQ, Fulwin and Tiggo in the market. Renault also made news at the show with the Duster Oroch pick-up and Sandero RS (see Argentina: 9 June 2015: ).
Significance: Argentina’s automotive market is currently under a tremendous amount of stress (see Argentina: 9 June 2015: ), with sales having fallen nearly 28% in 2014 and down 21.9% through May 2015. IHS forecasts sales will slip another 27% in 2015, not returning to growth until 2017. There is expectation for growth, however. Chery’s presence in the Argentine market is still a young one, although we forecast sales of 3,000 units for the company in 2015. We forecast that sales of the Vito will reach 2,800 units in 2017 and exceed 3,200 units in 2019 – about 28% of the brand’s sales in the country. Renault has also been hit notably hard by the downturn, with sales down 32.6% year on year through May 2015. Delivering positive product activity in an overall negative market, for all of these companies, can be a show of strength and commitment to the market, which could pay off as recovery begins.
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THURSDAY, June 25th
Too Quick on the Draw: Militarism and the Malpractice of Diplomacy in America —
Bedrock Arguments on Why Diplomacy Matters!
1. SCIOLI SCOLDS ARGENTINE OPPONENTS FOR SEEKING TO PAY ‘VULTURES’ (Bloomberg News)
2. OUTLOOK FOR ARGENTINA’S OCTOBER ELECTION BECOMING CLEARER, WITH KIRCHNERISTS LIKELY TO REMAIN INFLUENTIAL IN NEXT GOVERNMENT (IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis)
3. ARGENTINA RESID IMPORTS VANISH AS POWER SECTOR TURNS TO OTHER SOURCES (Platts Commodity News)
4. ARGENTINA PAYS TRIBUTE TO CARLOS GARDEL ON 80TH ANNIVERSARY OF HIS DEATH (Fox News)
1. SCIOLI SCOLDS ARGENTINE OPPONENTS FOR SEEKING TO PAY ‘VULTURES’ (Bloomberg News)
By Charlie Devereux
June 24, 2015
Argentine presidential candidate Daniel Scioli criticized rivals seeking to succeed President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in October’s election, saying they want to pay “vulture funds” that sued the government for full payment from the 2001 default.
In a speech to open a bank workers conference Wednesday, the current governor of Buenos Aires province also said his opponents would mete out neo-liberal “adjustment” measures that would hurt the poor and revive policies that had only racked up debt and led to the financial crisis of 2001-2002.
“Just a few hours ago, they said that we needed to run out and pay the vulture funds,” Scioli, the front-runner in presidential polls, said. The opposition is a “new version of an alliance of adjustment and indebtedness that damaged the policies of the workers and society.”
Scioli roiled markets last week by naming Legal Secretary Carlos Zannini, one of Fernandez’s closest confidantes, as his running mate. Zannini has been instrumental in crafting up some of Fernandez’s most controversial policies, such as the nationalization of the country’s pension funds and oil company YPF SA. He was also behind legislation that aimed to bypass a New York court ruling ordering the government to pay holdouts from Argentina’s 2001 default when making payments to holders of restructured bonds.
Gabriela Michetti, opposition presidential candidate Mauricio Macri’s running mate, said this week that while Argentina should put up a fight against the litigants led by Paul Singer’s Elliott Management, it should ultimately abide by the law and obey the ruling.
Fernandez’s refusal to observe the court order resulted in a second default in 13 years in 2014 for Argentina after a New York judge blocked payments on restructured bonds.
“Our project is about productivity, social inclusion, of policies of integration,” Scioli said Wednesday. “ I believe in that. There are strategic areas where the state can’t delegate to the market.”
2. OUTLOOK FOR ARGENTINA’S OCTOBER ELECTION BECOMING CLEARER, WITH KIRCHNERISTS LIKELY TO REMAIN INFLUENTIAL IN NEXT GOVERNMENT (IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis)
By Carlos Caicedo
24 June 2015
Pro-government candidate Daniel Scioli continues to lead in opinion polls and an endorsement by President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has boosted his presidential chances.
IHS perspective
Significance
The official register of presidential candidates, declared on 22 June, clarifies Argentina’s presidential race in October.
Implications
Pro-government candidate Daniel Scioli and opposition contender Mauricio Macri have emerged as the two frontrunners, with Scioli having the edge thanks to the support of incumbent president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
Outlook
Scioli is best placed to succeed Fernández, but his ability to implement pro-business policies would require him to confront Kirchnerists – including his running mate – who will remain influential in Congress and the cabinet.
Buenos Aires governor Daniel Scioli greets Argentina’s President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, as Minister of Economy Axel Kicillof watches, during a signing ceremony in Buenos Aires, on 30 January 2015.PA.22096744
Argentina’s political parties registered their presidential candidates with the president and parliament on 22 June. Candidates will compete in primaries on 9 August, the winners of which will compete in the general election on 25 October. The roster of presidential candidates, their running mates, and political alliances is now clear. The field is centred around two frontrunners: Governor of Buenos Aires Daniel Scioli for the ruling party Victory Front (Frente para la Victoria: FpV) and Mauricio Macri, the current mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, from a coalition of three parties – his own Republican Proposal (Propuesta Republicana: PRO), the Radical Civic Union (Unión Cívica Radical: UCR), and the Civic Coalition (Coalición Cívica: CC).
Scioli’s chances have been strengthened by the endorsement of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. However, to secure the endorsement he has been forced to choose Carlos Zannini, a staunch Kirchnerist, as his running mate. Zannini was a close confidant of late president Néstor Kirchner and currently serves as Fernández’s legal adviser and key strategist. Zannini’s inclusion on Scioli’s ticket will guarantee the support of the influential Kirchnerist faction La Cámpora, the political vehicle led by Fernández’s son Máximo Kirchner, labour unions, and other militant movements. In addition, Fernández ordered Florencio Randazzo, Minister of the Interior and Transport, to step down as a challenger to Scioli in the August primaries.
Macri, meanwhile, has selected Senator Gabriela Michetti of the PRO as his vice-presidential nominee. By choosing a running mate from his own party, Macri has risked limiting alliances with other parties. However, he has concluded that the country wants change – opinion polls show 60% of Argentines are against the re-election of a government led by the FpV. Based on this, Macri has decided to polarise the election, instead of forging an alliance with dissident Peronists who are former government allies, such as Sergio Massa of the Renewal Front (Frente Renovador: FR) alliance.
Massa, the third contender, is the mayor of Tigre municipality in Buenos Aires province and came to national attention in 2013 when he unexpectedly became the main winner of the mid-term elections. Since then he has been campaigning nationally and building an electoral base. Massa offered Macri an electoral alliance, which would have required the two to face each other in the primaries, but Macri rejected the offer. Support for Massa has been dwindling rapidly since early 2015 as the electorate and mid-ranking party leaders focus on Scioli and Macri.
Outlook and implications
The political rearrangements post-22 June have put the FpV’s Scioli as the best-placed candidate for the October presidential election. He has long been a strong candidate with a good track record as governor of Buenos Aires province. His main weakness until last week was uncertainty over whether President Fernández would support him. Both Scioli and Fernández come from the Peronist party, but have significant differences over policy-making. Scioli has a good rapport with the private sector and has long acknowledged that Argentina needs a major shift in economic policy in order to restore credibility and normalise relations with international creditors. However, he is aware that without Fernández’s support his chances of winning office would diminish significantly. This strategy, however, entails the danger of Fernández’s clout in Congress tying his hands and preventing him from delivering any meaningful change, resulting in a status quo with only superficial changes.
A victory by Macri currently appears unlikely, given his strategy of shunning an agreement with Massa, which would have widened his appeal and national reach. He hopes that Scioli’s close association with the Fernández government would cost him the support of independent voters. Macri is market friendly and has promised to restore investors’ confidence quickly if he is elected. He has said he will immediately lift currency controls and is widely perceived to be best placed to negotiate an agreement with the “hold-outs”, the minority bondholders who rejected the debt restructuring that followed Argentina’s debt default in 2002 (see Argentina: 5 January 2015: Argentine government unlikely to make improved offer to hold-out creditors as RUFO clause expires).
Scioli is expected to reach out to the hold-outs too, but this is likely to be hampered by strong objections from Fernández and her followers. The Kirchnerists have control of key government agencies, and are likely to retain a strong presence in the cabinet and Congress, from which they can exert significant influence. This means negotiations with the hold-outs under Scioli, although feasible, would be protracted due to his need to accommodate Kirchnerist support. However, the presidential office is exceptionally powerful in Argentina and Scioli is expected to make use of the special powers it would provide him. He is likely to distance himself gradually from Fernández’s hostile policies towards foreign investors, but this would be a very slow process and is only likely to bear fruit by 2017. Scioli is also expected to engage the agribusiness sector, leading to a reduction in export taxes and export controls, as well as prioritise foreign investment in the energy sector by supporting joint ventures undertaken by state-run oil company YPF.
3. ARGENTINA RESID IMPORTS VANISH AS POWER SECTOR TURNS TO OTHER SOURCES (Platts Commodity News)
By Josh Pherigo
24 June 2015
Houston (Platts)–24Jun2015/1151 am EDT/1551 GMT Fuel oil imports to Argentina, which typically buys millions of barrels of foreign residual fuel for winter power generation, have all but dried up this year as import flows have switched to high sulfur diesel.
One month into winter, Argentina’s state-run electricity producer Cammesa has yet to import a single cargo of fuel oil and has instead turned to cargoes of high sulfur diesel and locally produced fuel oil, market sources said.
By this time last year, YPF, the government-owned oil company, had purchased 11 fuel oil cargoes totaling 550,000 mt, equivalent to about 3.5 million barrels, according to tender reports. Since January, no Argentina-bound residual fuel fixtures have been seen, according to market sources.
Argentina imported more than 12 fuel oil cargoes last year, including a few from the US and at least three others from the Caribbean, where the fuel oil is made by blending Colombian fuel with US Gulf Coast materials, a source said. Brazil is also a large exporter to Argentina due to their proximity, and a source said they exported at least five cargoes to Argentina last year.
Petrobras, Vitol and Glencore are among the companies that typically supply residual fuel cargoes to YPF. Between January and July last year, Vitol exported 2.5 million barrels of 1%S max fuel oil to Argentina, according to tender reports.
Vitol does not expect to fix any fuel oil cargoes in Argentina this season, a source familiar with the company’s operations said.
“Fuel oil intake has been very low, and industry consumption has been very low. There has been more self-generation for electricity,” the source said.
HSD IMPORTS, DOMESTIC FUEL OIL PRODUCTION RISES
Cammesa, which oper