2016-08-17

WEATHER

We saw scattered storms across the Midstate yesterday, and we’re in for more of the same today and all the way through the weekend.  It’s a frustrating pattern for weather forecasters, because it’s impossible to give you a precise prediction of when and where it will rain — we know there will be showers and storms, and we know the most likely time frame will be midday through early evening, but a neighborhood-by-neighborhood forecast just isn’t realistic.  That said, let’s get attempt to get into some details…

The reason for the unsettled pattern is a stalled out boundary draped across the Midstate — we call it a stationary front, but it’s not completely immobile.


The boundary wobbles back and forth a bit, and becomes less well-defined with time…at this point, there really isn’t much of a temperature or moisture difference across the front, but it’s still enough to enhance our storm chances today through the weekend.

I’m not wild about the way ANY of the forecast models are handling the storm chances today, so here’s a breakdown of where and when we’re most likely to see storms developing:


At no point are you guaranteed to get rain in your neighborhood — the best we can do in this weather pattern is try to narrow down the odds for you.  I realize that it’s very frustrating to try to make plans to work or play outdoors, but that’s just the reality of this type of weather pattern.

More of the same in store tomorrow and Friday — hit-and-miss showers and storms, but I can’t make any guarantees about rain (or the absence thereof) in any one place at any one time.  I’m actually more confident in the Saturday and Sunday rain chances, because it will be a stronger and more-organized weather system that will help to spark those storms:

It’s too soon to talk about severe weather potential, but that’s something we’ll keep a close eye on for the weekend.

Here’s the good news: cooler and more-comfortable air is still on the way next week!  Yesterday’s model data delayed the arrival of that air mass until Monday night and early Tuesday, but now it’s looking like we’re back to a Sunday night/early Monday arrival.  Daytime highs will still be warm, but overnight lows will drop to the 60s for the first time in over 7 weeks…and the humidity will be substantially lower!  Check out these forecast dew points for Monday afternoon, and where they rank on the “muggy meter”:

LINKS

The flooding in Louisiana is the 8th 500-year flood to occur in the last 12 months alone.  Is “flood fatigue” one of the reasons the flooding hasn’t been a bigger national news story?

Pictures of the Louisiana floods look strikingly similar to some of the images we saw around here in May 2010.

There have already been as many lightning deaths in the United States this year as in all of 2015.  Why has there been such a spike?

July was “absolutely” Earth’s hottest month ever recorded.  Which is saying something.

An Alaskan village is taking a vote about whether to relocate the entire village, because of changes due to climate change.

Mark your calendars, if you haven’t already, for one year from Sunday — August 21, 2017 is the day a total solar eclipse will occur, and the “path of totality” cuts right across the Midstate.

NASA’s mission to collect a sample from an asteroid and return it to Earth will launch next month.  (The asteroid itself will buzz very close to Earth in 2135.)

Is there a fifth fundamental force of nature?  (The four known are electromagnetism, the strong nuclear force, the weak nuclear force, and gravity.)

Ford aims to have self-driving cars on the road by 2021.

If you’re a golfer frustrated by your inability to hit the ball like a pro, just blame genetics — pro golfers are more likely to have oddly shaped hip joints.

What’s the hardest Olympic gymnastics event, according to physics?

Just trivia to me, but I’m sure linguists are fascinated by this: most adults know more than 42,000 words.

“Pet clinical trials” are on the rise — an attempt to prolong the lives of dogs and cats, AND simultaneously develop new techniques to treat humans.

An MRI study shows that dogs like praise from their owners even more than food.

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