Where-to-fore “Zanu-PF “Victory?
Three months gone, President Robert Mugabe and his Zanu PF Party secured a contested landslide victory; they celebrated, singing and shouting all night long, danced, drinking and toasted, congratulated each other, taking photographs and, many other things that to victors do. “They shouted” “The GNU is gone!!!”, “We ZANU-PF ARE BACK, YES, WE ARE BACK IN THE DRIVING SEAT!!!”
Now the country is steadily showing signs of plunging into deeper economic morasses as evidenced by the collapse of service delivery systems including health, fuel supply, electricity, water as well as the liquidity crunch. People are beginning to wonder what exactly is happening on the ground. Should ZANU PF fail to meet the aspiration of the people, voter confidence shall vanish.
Certainly, the road shall be very long. The crux of the matter is that, the government of Zimbabwe has no money. Zimbabwe economic recovery plan, shall require real funding, otherwise it shall never take off.
Government five year plan shall require funding as follows:
2014= R26.8.Billion
2015= R28.6.Billion
2016= R32.1.Billion
2017= R36.8 Billion
2018= R42.2 Billion.
Total funding needed: R165.7 Billion.
Capital inflows: R11.9 billion per fiscal year.
Zimbabwe is looking for real capital funding not just peanuts from the Chinese. Unfortunately, the country does not have vibrant economy to collect the needed tax. Everybody is wondering how it will play out. The government has the will to do better. How shall the government unlock itself from the self-style bondage?The best remedy for the troubled economy is, Zimbabwe should normalise the relationships with the West such as America the EU Countries so that capital and the funding can begin to flow. The economic measures should be accompanied by removing all economic obstacles, remove the disastrous indigenous laws, business interferences, reduce public servants, remove ghost workers and corruption, increase educational funding, accountability in revenue collection, agriculture sector, mining and the funding of SME’s to create businesses growth. Above all the Government must take real steps to tackle graft.President Robert Mugabe at UN General Assembly dug in his heels saying, “SHAME SHAME AMERICAN, SHAME SHAME THE BRITISH.” What exactly did the remarks yield? Did the President come back with the needed funds? What about investors? It would have been better if in his last statements he spoke conciliatory words and asked Western governments for funding, because the beneficially of his speech, was not ZANU PF, but rather the ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE.
Iranian president did it for his country; sanctions imposed on the Iranian government are being lifted. Sooner or later the country shall begin to enjoy the global benefits. Likewise, President Mugabe could have done the same.Although Zanu PF secured power on the back of promises to revive the economy through a populist theme “Indigenisation, black empowerment, business development and job creation”, there is little to show on the ground if anything. ZANU PF should abandon the idea of grab and destroy but take a more positive role in allowing those able to run business take the front seat. They can’t be a player and a referee at the same time.
The Indigenisation theme was once tried and became unpopular. ESAP was introduced but never worked. Privatisation of the government’s own industries failed to garner economy confidence. The government tried all tricks in the book but, they all failed.A suitable model of indigenisation would be to encourage the private sector to invest so that the economy becomes sustainable and manageable. This would require confidence in the business and legal structures. The effects of economic hardships are the results of bad economic policies of 1980s and subsequent corruption. The government should take stock of even past and create better future plans.
THE DANGERS OF MONOPOLIES
Soon after independence in 1980, Zimbabwe should have encouraged diversity by encouraging competition so that many companies would have emerged. Zimbabwe should have not protected some of its key industries at the expense of economic growth. Some of the few examples of bad economic policies are: In Gweru there were two notable companies the Dairy Board and Bata Shoe Company which enjoyed a business monopoly and government protection. They controlled the price of their commodities.
In Masvingo there was one Dairyboard, one Cold Storage and one Coca-Cola Company. In Harare there was one Portland cement, one Cold Storage, and one Bread Company. In Bulawayo there was one Children Nappies Company, one Cold Storage, and one Tyre Company. Consumers had no choice but to buy from these companies which led to exorbitant prices which fuelled runaway inflation.
The government spent more time fighting price fix and controls, instead of allowing economic forces to dictate market trends. The government enjoyed economic boom within the SADC region. They lacked the foresight to see that one day they would be reduced to beggars and economical ill-wishers. You cannot run government through night dreams. Running government is practical and requires real, bold and sober political minds.
Government and democracy is about people. Without people there is no government, without government there is no democracy. Most areas in Zimbabwe, their supplies came from big cities. Production was restricted to capital and regional towns. Places like Ngundu business centre in Masvingo, traders imported their commodities from Harare, Gweru, and Bulawayo. The situation made products too expensive to the ordinals. Local Government Tenders brought more corruption. There was no sufficient check and balance. The was lack of fiduciary oversight. There were winners and losers. Maurice Nyagumbo was among the losers who killed himself soon after got implicated by the Sandura Commission. He traded his life for a station wagon Toyota Cressida. Most of the ministers and officials implicated in graft got off Scott free.
People flocked to big cities in search of employment because that was where the nation’s industries were located. The cities were unable to absorb the number of emigrating people. Towns were congested. Accommodation became a problem for many. This birthed urban slums and saw standards of living drop significantly. The government did not have an economic plan or alternatives to meet the growing housing demand. The mistakes of the past are coming home to roost.Already, the country is experiencing countrywide power cuts severely impacting on the domestic and industrial sectors. Water shortage, high on Mugabe’s to-do list, is worsening; there is an acute shortage of drugs and medical supplies in public hospitals and clinics; and shortages of fuel in some towns while business is slowly grinding to a halt because of lack of confidence in the lacklustre Zanu PF government.There are no clear policies coming from government to revive economy. What you hear is the same old economic rhetoric yet voters are waiting for a promised better life.
GOVERNMENT FAILURES TO DATE
The 60-year-old water infrastructure acquired from Rhodesian and Nyasaland governments is badly in need of replacement due to natural wear and tear. Harare is only managing to produce 450 mega-litres per day from Prince Edward and Morton Jaffray waterworks, against a daily demand which, due to the current high temperatures, has jumped from 900 mega-litres per day to between 1 200 and 1 500 mega-litres.The government’s failure to spearhead meaningful and productive projects such as Zambezi water project for Matabeleland Province, is part of the unrealistic policies that the ZANU PF government is facing today.The government did not tailor population growth with government projects. If the population of the country is not known, you can never have a clear and a practical budget plan. Government budgets are tailored to the demand of the voters. Projects were not tailor-made to create jobs. Homes were not built to take into account rural-urban migration likewise no infrastructure was invested in to bring in sufficient water to homes and industry. No investments were made in renewable energy. The education curriculum was not revamped to harness information communication technologies. Good governance requires political discipline.The city council warned long-suffering residents that they should brace for even more erratic water supplies for the next three years as refurbishment continues.
CHEAP POLITICKING
The ZANU PF Government blames the economic situation on sanctions. The worst part is that the government of Zimbabwe does not have sufficient companies to generate tax and PAYE. In nutshell, the government shall never have a meaningful financial budget, because it does not have fixed income to steer government expenditure.
THE PROBLEMS FACING THE GOVERNMENT
The government does not even know how much US Dollars are in circulation, cannot print and control the currency. Government’s micro economics system is not sustainable. Zimbabwe imports more and exports less. Production is low the demand is high. Demand of currency is high, and yet there is a serious cash shortage. Wages are too low, commodity prices are high. Less servings, high cost of financial sector maintenance. High corruption, too many shady deals. Unpaid workers. Financial indicators are endless. It will need a real miracle to steer the Zimbabwe economy back on track.
HEALTH SECTOR ISSUES
Severe shortage of critical drugs hit Masvingo General Hospital, compromising health delivery to thousands of residents. The hospital failed to dispense basic drugs such as antibiotics and pain killers, forcing patients to turn to private pharmacies and clinics which are too expensive for the majority. Besides the shortage of basic drugs, Zimbabwe is also struggling to supply anti-retroviral drugs (ARVs) at public health institutions, compromising the health of more than half a million people living with HIV and Aids, thus forcing patients to switch to drug combinations.
As long as ZANU PF does not have a plan B to reinstate credibility in the financial sector, their problems will rain till the next general election. Should ZANU PF fail the economic litmus test, the next general election shall bring different outcome and this shall be very painful for the ruling party.
The opposition has been quick to point out that it’s easy to rig election, but it’s not easy to rig economy. ZANU PF is financially stuck. ZANU PF does not have sufficient money to run Government. It is a matter of time before that bomb detonates and that will be the end of ZANU PF.