Hello Traders!
It's Preston again from
WhoTrades HQin NYC, USA. I would like to formally
thank all of you who have been adding more and more content to
the site daily--we love to see what you all have got. So don't hold
back! Give us your theories, your analysis, your warnings, your
recommendations, and everything in between. Get creative: we have a
member, Anthony Alfidi who runs his own financial management
company in San Francisco, who puts up financial poetry . .
.
haiku and limericks of finance almost daily!
So get creative, get personal, get general, get granular, get
political, get economic, get American, get International . .
. it's all welcome here. Once you have your account set
up, you're free to blog away on the subject of your choice; look at
me--I often write on politics and social issues, many of which
(like my DEA article this morning) have little to do with
finance.
Lastly, I have sent some individual notes out to some members
who post forecasts very frequently, but as there has been a
great number of them coming through recently, and prize money is up
for grabs, I'd like to post some general guidelines on what a
forecast should look like.. but first:
Thank you so very much to all who have submitted any
forecast, no matter how it is worded--there were no formal
guidelines given and so you were pioneering without any real
direction. But from this point forward, since large cash prizes are
involved, we would like to clean the process up, tighten it and
make it concise and consistent.
1) Forecasts must be a specific prediction, stated in
a sentence.That prediction must be able to to be proven or
disproven by the closing date of the forecast without any
ambiguity. One should be able to google a specific factotum to get
the answer by the closing of the voting. For example:
"Kroger's Shares Will Reach $78 by 4/27/2015" is a perfect
forecast. Those who think that Kroger's stock is going to go up two
bucks over the next month will vote "agree" and those who think
Krogers has issues and will lose value over the next month will
vote disagree, By the close of the voting, it is going to be easy
to get the answer: if the stock on close of 4/27 has hit that
level, that is easy to check... thus the winners and the losers can
be easily determined.
"Time To Launch Long Positions In CME Group?" is a question, not
a forecast, which should be a positive statement that can be proven
true or false at the end of the forecast term. And by the close of
the forecast term, there is no concrete, factual proof to look up
to find the right answer. That's an opinion strictly in the minds
of investors, not a market fact that can be proven beyond
certainty.
Another:
"It's not too late for these oil investments," is somewhat vague
and unspecific and can't be proven. You can say "Marathon
stock will go up 2% in three days versus 3/27 close."
2) A forecast doesn't have to be specifically
financial.It can be more human action oriented or
political:
"Obama will announce a lift on the crude export ban by
xx/xx/xxxx," which is something that can be proven or disproven
once the target date elapses.
3) Be clear what the target is being measured
against. If you're forecasting a stock rise or fall of a
certain number of percentage points, be clear what starting
number it is being measured against, and specifically when the
forecast period ends. For example: "WTI Crude down 3%" is not
sufficient. But "WTI Crude down 3% by 4/8/2015 vs 3/27 closing
number" is concise and easy to prove or disprove by close of
contest.
________________________________________________________________
That's basically it. Have fun with it, enjoy it, and let it rip!
Once again, over and above everything, we thank each and every one
of you for contributing, and do not fault anybody since there
weren't any posted guidelines.
We hope this helps--happy forecasting. Let the race for the cash
begin! :)