Cyclone Pam was a monster Category 5 storm. It had peak winds of
185 MPH and waves that would crash over a four story building. The
barometer fell to 915, the storm's 'eye' was 2o miles across
across, the total low pressure area was millions of square miles.
The islands of Vanuatu got whacked hard.
Okay, this was a big one. One for the books. But
I was amazed to learn that Pam had the power to change the
climate on a large part of the globe for at least the next twelve
months.
Based on information just released, a significant global weather
pattern change is either
upon us todayor will
will be in a matter of weeks. As the consequences
of Pam unfold,
tens of millions of people will be affected one way or the
other.
Sound like Tin Foil Hat stuff?
Maybe. We shall see - in the very near future.
The Australian Government Meteorological Office
blew my mindsurprised me with this comment (
Link
):
As a result of severe
tropical cyclone
Pam
in the southern hemisphere, and tropical storm Bavi
(category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale) in the
northern hemisphere,
a strong reversal of the
trade winds occurred
in the equatorial Pacific just west of the Date Line. This
is
l
ikely to initiate a
downwelling Kelvin Wave and subsequent warming in the ocean
sub-surface and potentially surface.
What does that mean? It means that there is, all of a sudden,
a very high probability that an El Nino is right around the
corner.
Consider this chart released today by the Aussies. Note the
average of the forecast models goes into the orange (
El Nino territory) in April.
Now look at the same chart from a month ago. The timing and
relative strength of the ENSO cycle has increased. The change in
outlook is attributable to Pam.
Consider what the models were saying 30 days ago regarding
expectations for May. Note that only Model ECMWF predicted an
upturn in ocean temperatures:
The following chart, also from today shows the estimates for the
month of April (for the period 30 days before the prior slide), yet
it shows a rapidly growing consensus for El Nino.
The following is the most recent report for June. All models are
now in El Nino. This is an additional indications of how rapid the
coming change will be.
Finally is the most recent estimate for August, 2015 - just four
months from today. Note that model ECMWF (prior winner) is
suggesting
a very strong 2.0
El Nino. All of the models are lined up - An El Nin0 event
is now 100% certain to happen (if you believe models).
Suppose this comes true - what are the implications?
A strong El Nino would result in above average rainfall in
the entire Pacific West.
It would also relieve the more serious drought conditions
now occurring in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
If you believe in any of this you might consider one of the
following:
-Buy flood insurance if you live in
California.
-Buy lift tickets and rent lodges at
the West Coast ski resorts now - tons of snow next winter will
cause prices to soar.
-Buy Vail stock.
-Buy cheap/dry farmland in
California - it might pop with the rain.
-Buy lake front property on Lake
Mead (today the water is hundreds of yards away).
-If you're an insurance company you
should raise the rates on California flood insurance (or buy
reinsurance).
- Buy the stock of Brazilian
hydroelectric companies that today have no water to make juice.
-Short coffee beans - (The Brazil
crop will be bumper next year)
-Sell insurance company stocks who
underwrite homeowners in California (even if they raise rates)
-Municipalities in West Coast flood
prone areas should make some preparations. These changes will
happen in a matter of months.
Okay, that stuff is a bit silly. My point is that many things
will change if the rains return to California and Brazil. We shall
know soon enough if a significant change in weather patterns is in
the offing. But assume that this does play out as the
meteorologists are now forecasting. What this means is that a big
storm in the Pacific, at just the right time and place, can knock
global weather into a new loop. Pam was a random event that may
have lasting and significant results. The butterfly flapped its
wings, there will be broad, unforeseen consequences.
If science can't predict random events that change weather in
significant ways on a month to month basis how can those same
scientists predict, with such precision, what will happen in
fifty-years?