ARCTIC BLAST NOW……….MUCH WARMER & WETTER AHEAD……..
Subtropical Ridge Will Re-Expand & Put a Dam On the Cold Northwest of Our Area………
We are in the midst of our Arctic Blast with a winter storm deep in the southern U.S. & the coldest daytime highs & overnight lows of the winter (so far) over the Tri-State.
TONIGHT-MONDAY…………..
Very Cold, Then a Gradual Warm-Up with Increasing Winds…………
We will just continue to pick up the high/mid clouds from the southern system with the thickest cloud cover south of the Ohio River. So, lows will run 0 in the northwest to 12 in the south (6 Evansville area) tonight. With northwest winds at 8 mph, wind chills will drop to -11 in the northwest to near 0 in the south (-5 Evansville area).
The high/mid clouds will exit with time Saturday with highs 19-26 (22 Evansville area) & northwest to north-northwest winds around 8 mph.
Lows Saturday night will run 6 northeast to 11 in the south & southwest (8 Evansville area), followed by partly cloudy skies & highs of 23-31 northeast to far southwest Sunday (26 Evansville area).
The winds look much less on Sunday now with west-northwest to southeast winds at 3-5 mph. After temperatures leveling off around 13-21 (19 Evansville area), then rising to 19-25 (22 Evansville area) Sunday night (winds turning to south & increasing to around 10 mph), low clouds may roll in Monday with gusty south-southwest winds at 15-30 mph. Highs will run 36-46 (39 Evansville area).
TUESDAY-NEXT FRIDAY……………..
Windy, Warmer & Wetter Pattern Again…………
Widespread rainfall, windy & warmer weather will pass Tuesday with highs 53-59 (55 Evansville area), followed by drier weather Wednesday. I took rainfall out of the Wednesday forecast due to a faster progression of the front & adjusted temperatures accordingly.
Widespread rainfall with even t’storms will overspread the area late Thursday-Friday with windy weather from the south & southwest. The rainfall will start scattered/spotty Thursday, then increase.
There is the potential of some heavy rainfall, similar to the late December (Christmas period) rainfall event (+3″ fell in a band over western Kentucky). Highs may reach 54-68 from northwest to southeast (65 Evansville area). Lows Friday night may drop to 34-44 (41 Evansville area).
This will be a warm-weather, heavier rain/t’storm system, but the exact details of timing are unclear. All the parameters show severe potential Texas to Arkansas to Mississippi & Louisiana to western Tennessee. Here, there looks to be CAPE for t’storms & low-level wind fields look strong, but the ensemble data does not support any severe here at the moment.
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