Typhoon Haiyan the 30th named storm of 2013 poses the greatest threat to the loss of life and damage this week. That is more so than the 29 named storms prior to it.
Watch this video on YouTube.
This storm may not get as strong as Utor and Lekima earlier on this season but it will likely be making landfall in Samar and Leyte Friday morning. JMA is now expecting Haiyan to max out with winds up to 314kph and pressure at 900hpa at landfall. Strongest storm of 2013 and at landfall! When Utor and Lekima maxed out they were over open water. Also to put it in to perspective, Typhoon Bopha / Pablo maxed out with a pressure of 930hpa. Much weaker than the forecast of this storm.
This is why we continue to encourage everyone who is being advised to evacuate to do so. Please take this storm seriously. Its always better to think afterwards, “Wow, that storm was not so bad” Than “Wow, that really caught us off guard” or worst.
Now is the time to start making preparations for this storm. Conditions will start to deteriorate for the Philippines through Thursday and winds gusting up to Tropical Storm Strength will begin to occur making travel and preparations dangerous. Should you need to evacuate, bring clothes, first aid kit, candles/flashlight, battery-powered radio, food, etc. and always play it safe.
As of Wednesday Evening the storm was right in between Yap and Palau as a “Super” Typhoon according to JTWC and a rapidly intensifying “Very Strong” Typhoon according to JMA.
JMA STORM TRACK
Yap has recorded winds up to 106kph and that will likely be the case for most of the Caroline islands through Thursday morning as the storm passes south of Yap and north of Palau.
Typhoon Watches are still in effect for Palau and winds gusting to TY strength of over 120kph is possible along the northern edge of the island through the overnight hours.
At this time in Palau schools have been dismissed and are not expected to resume until further notice. All government offices are also closed on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the Palau International Airport is scheduled to close on Wednesday at 6:00 pm Palau time. Please check this link for details on how this storm will impact these islands.
Below is storm footage shot from Yap.
Watch this video on YouTube.
The main threat from this storm though will be its impact on the Philippines. Specifically Visayas on the Islands of Samar and Leyte where Typhoon Haiyan will impact by Friday morning as potentially a severe and devastating Typhoon to the region.
Here evacuations are already underway for people in low lying and flood prone areas. And for good reason as the storm is forecasted
Westpacwx Outlook. Not Official
to gradually intensify but by Thursday night as it approaches the East coast of the Philippines we may see rapid intensification of the storm up to the possible equivalent of a Cat 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Model output along with Climatology tells us that more often than not just prior to landfall in this region storms often do under-go this type of rapid intensification.
What this means is that we could have a strong Typhoon turn in to a Violent Typhoon just hours before it pushes on shore packing winds up to 230kph sustained near the eye wall with gust well over 300kph. That is the speed at which bullet trains run at in Japan.
Near the coast Storm surge will be a major threat. Here sea level rise 3-6 meters above the normal level is possible with some areas in the right front quadrant getting even higher than that.
Heavy rainfall will also be a major issue. For areas along eastern Samar and Leyte rainfall totals could top 500mm on Thursday along the eastern end of the island.
The NDRRMC has issued Red Alerts for much of the Central Philippines. Click here for the Map of who is being warned on.
Click here for a Recap of The the PAGASA Typhoon Press Conference Wednesday Evening.
Tropical Storm Strength winds will also extend far from the center to the north and south ushering in gusty winds and heavy rainfall across all of Visayas, northern Mindanao and Southern Luzon.
IR SAT
Manila will also feel the effects of this storm as it passes towards the south. By Friday Evening Tropical Storm strength winds will be likely in the city along with heavy rainfall that could be a problem for the city on Friday in to Saturday morning. The worst of the weather should still be to the east and south of the city though.
One reason why Manila was built where it was is that Typhoon coming from the Pacific often weaken before impacting the city.
Waves over 7-8 meter high will make any travel by sea dangerous starting Thursday and the risk of capsizing fishing boats will be extremely high as large swells surge west ahead of the storm system.
Westpacwx Track
By Saturday late morning conditions will improve for the Philippines behind the storm. Still though lingering showers and gale force winds near the coast will be expected through Saturday.
It will not be over yet by this time though. Residents of Vietnam will be watching for Haiyan part II to make landfall by Sunday bringing severe to violent conditions to the country.
Westpacwx Author and owner of Earthuncut.tv James Reynolds is now in the Philippines and is preparing to get ahead of Typhoon Haiyan this week. Please follow his latest updates on Twitter @TyphoonFury. This will be his nearly 40th Typhoon Intercept. He is a professional and will take all the proper precautions. Please do not put yourself in any dangerous situations and always follow warnings from local authorities.
Tweets by @typhoonfury
Please check the Tropical Information Center for latest information on Tracks, Sat Updates, News and latest update on how this storm will impact the Philippines.
Over the course of the next 48hrs if you have photos or video please share with us here at Westpacwx, you can post on our Facebook page or at the website under westpacwx Photos.
Watch this video on YouTube.
Below is a look at what happened last year during Typhoon Bopha, a storm of nearly the same intensity.
Watch this video on YouTube.