Wealthy Bucket Multi-Asset Investment Model
Global Markets
GLOBAL MARKETS August 24, 2014
Week
Month
Year to Date
GLOBAL MARKETS August 24, 2014
Week
Month
Year to Date
US - S&P 500
+1.12%
+3.29%
+8.54%
US - DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
+1.44%
+3.08%
+3.41%
US - NASDAQ COMPOSITE
+0.67%
+4.27%
+9.55%
US - RUSSELL 2000 - RUT
+0.81%
+4.08%
+0.84%
CHINA - SHANGHAI COMPOSITE
0.00%
+1.59%
-5.24%
TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE - TSX
+1.24%
+2.24%
+14.43%
GERMAN STOCK EXCHANGE - DAX
+1.20%
+2.08%
+0.02%
LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE - FSTE 500 INDEX
+0.65%
+1.47%
+0.89%
SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES INDEX - STI
+0.6%
-0.61%
+4.71%
STOCK EXCHANGE OF THAILAND - SET
+0.41%
+4.6%
+23.07%
JAPANESE STOCK MARKET - NIKKEI 225
+1.53%
+0.41%
-4.33%
HONG KONG - HANG SENG INDEX
+0.79%
+1.88%
+7.09%
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES EXCHANGE - ASX
+1.26%
+1.48%
+5.05%
BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE - BSE - SENSITIVITY INDEX - SENSEX
+1.13%
+3.68%
+26.48%
BRAZIL STOCK EXCHANGE - BOVESPA STOCK INDEX
+1.45%
+4.48%
+16.02%
ITALIAN STOCK EXCHANGE FTSE- MIB
+1.52%
+0.09%
+7.67%
MoneyFlow Performance August 2014
SYMBOL
DIRECTION
ENTRY
STOP
TARGET
DR/CR
ROI
SYMBOL
DIRECTION
ENTRY
STOP
TARGET
DR/CR
ROI
TF
Short
>$1163
+16.57%
6C
Short
>$0.9234
-1.81%
SPY
Bear Call Spread
>$198.28
$1.35
+13.4%
ES
Long
>$1908.75
>$1953.50
-14.57%
XLI
Long
>$51.80
>$53.59
-1.08%
MET
Long
>$51.78
>$54.03
+4.34%
UPS
Long
>$96.09
>$98.78
+2.80%
T
Long
>$34.56
>$35.43
-0.17%
COF
Long
>$79.09
>$81.61
+3.18%
MU
Long
>$30.27
>$33.19
+9.64%
MXIM
Long
>$30.62
>$32.11
+1.40%
AXP
Long
>$87.75
>$91.46
+1.28%
FITB
Long
>$19.84
>$20.63
+2.42%
MONTHLY TOTAL: +2.83%
Economics This Week
Country
Date
Event
Significance
Expectation
Trend
Country
Date
Event
Significance
Expectation
Trend
GER
2014-08-25
IFO Business Climate
Market Moving Indicator
Down
USA
8/19/2014
2014-08-25
New Home Sales
Merit Extra Attention
> than previous
Up
USA
2014-08-25
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Merit Extra Attention
Down
USA
2014-08-25
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Merit Extra Attention
No Forecast
USA
2014-08-26
Durable Goods Orders M/M
Merit Extra Attention
> than previous
Flat
USA
2014-08-26
Red Book Y/Y
Merit Extra Attention
Down
USA
2014-08-26
CB Consumer Confidence
Merit Extra Attention
Up
GER
2014-08-27
GFK Consumer Confidence
Market Moving Indicator
> than previous
Up
GER
2014-08-28
Unemployment Rate
Market Moving Indicator
down
GER
2014-08-28
Inflation Rate Y/Y
Market Moving Indicator
No Forecast
> than previous
Down
EU
2014-08-28
Business Confidence
Merit Extra Attention
Down
JPN
2014-08-28
Inflation Rate Y/Y
Market Moving Indicator
> than previous
Up
JPN
2014-08-28
Unemployment Rate
Market Moving Indicator
Down
UK
2014-08-28
GDP Growth Rate Q/Q Second Estimate
Merit Extra Attention
> than previous
Up
USA
2014-08-28
Initial Jobless Claims
Market Moving Indicator
> than previous
Down
USA
2014-08-28
Continuing Jobless Claims
Merit Extra Attention
> than previous
Down
USA
2014-08-28
Continuing Jobless Claims
Merit Extra Attention
> than previous
Down
USA
2014-08-28
Pending Home Sales
Merit Extra Attention
> than previous
Down
CAN
2014-08-29
GDP Growth Rate Q/Q
Market Moving Indicator
> than previous
Flat
CAN
2014-08-29
GDP Growth Rate Annualized
Market Moving Indicator
> than previous
Flat
GER
2014-08-29
Retail Sales Y/Y
Merit Extra Attention
> than previous
Down
EU
2014-08-29
Unemployment Rate
Market Moving Indicator
No Change
Down
EU
2014-08-29
Inflation Rate Y/Y
Merit Extra Attention
Down
USA
2014-08-29
Reuters Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final
Merit Extra Attention
Up
USA
2014-08-29
Chicago PMI
Merit Extra Attention
> than previous
Up
CAN
2014-08-31
NBS Manufacturing PMI
Market Moving Indicator
Up
G7 Currency Forecast
Euro Futures
The Euro continued its slide this past week breaking through our immediate support levels. The downdraft also pulled the Swiss Franc lower, which eliminated our short Franc trading idea since the currency did not trade high enough and into our entry parameters.
Swiss FrancFutures 1 Year Daily Chart
Should the economic situation in Germany continue to perform poorly, then, we fully expect Euro to test 52-week, lows. The graph has been overhauled this week to adapt to the selling pressure in euro. Immediate resistance has been lowered to $1.3336-$1.3396. Immediate support has been identified between $1.3115-$1.3196 and long-term support has been installed between $1.3013-$1.3070. The long-term support takes into consideration the 52-week low. You will notice throughout the forecast this week that there are many instruments that have levels very close to one another, which can make for interesting trading opportunities. We will look to test both support levels by planning long Euro ideas.
Euro Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
British Pound Futures
We did not engage the Sterling idea that was identified last week. News on Wednesday coming from the BoE hinted at the possibility of raising rates, which propelled the currency upward, momentarily. We will continue to watch the currency and determine if the level is an attractive area to engage a long position.
British Pound Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
We have updated the Sterling graph for the upcoming week in the event the buyers do not step in. Intermediate support has been installed between $1.6483-$1.6524 and resistance levels have been lowered to $1.6677-$1.6714. We will design another long Sterling idea should price trade down to intermediate support.
Swiss Franc Futures
As mentioned earlier, our trading idea did not have the opportunity to materialize due to the selling pressure in Euro. The Franc graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as all levels are being respected.
Swiss Franc Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Australian Dollar Futures
There was very little action in Aussie this past week. The immediate support level is holding. The graph itself looks tempting; however, we feel that there are other opportunities, elsewhere. If a long trade were being considered, then, this would be the ideal time. Should price trade and close above the $0.9298 level, then that would be the confirmation signal to take the long position. The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as the levels are being respected.
Australian Dollar Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Canadian Dollar Futures
Thee is nothing new to report with Loonie. Price is trading in a neutral region between immediate levels. The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week.
Canadian Dollar Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Japanese Yen Futures
We had prepared for a continuation of the channel patter on Sunday. Obviously, the Yen broke down and the trading idea we had identified was not engaged. None of the trades identified last week were engaged since they take advantage of the U.S. equity stock markets in the event that the market retraced for a technical pullback.
Japanese Yen Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Yen has traded into our intermediate support levels. There is a lack of confirmation that the negative correlation between Yen and the S&P 500 has returned. We will watch for the relationship during the trading sessions during the upcoming week. There are both long and short opportunities that are presenting themselves in Yen that we will look further into. For the upcoming week, we have identified long-term support between $0.009483-$0.009528. This represents the most attractive level to test a long Yen position, obviously.
Japanese Yen Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
U.S Dollar Futures
You can see the relationship between Dollar and the S&P 500 is showing hints to us; however, we aren’t inclined to say that the coast is clear and the market dynamics are ‘normal’. It is historically uncommon for the S&P (stock market index) to lead a currency, which is what has occurred over the past 11 trading sessions. We will maintain a wait and see approach before we commit to believing that the market dynamics or relationships have normalized; meaning that there are reliable relationships that illustrate a higher probable market for identifying direction. For the new week, we have modified the graph to prepare for Dollars next turn(s). Immediate resistance has been raised to $82.65-$82.80 and immediate support has been revised to $81.49-$81.68. The former does represent an attractive level to short the currency as it prepares to push towards 52-week highs.
U.S Dollar Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
However, on a longer-term graph we are shown that Dollar should have more upside potential before the sellers really show up at the table. The level below is where we would like to set-up a short Dollar idea.
U.S Dollar Futures 3 Year Weekly Chart
Commodity Forecast
Crude Futures
The one trading idea we were really excited about over the last number of weeks was based on crude. We waited patiently for crude to fall into our entry parameters only to have price continue to push through.
Crude Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Crude is now trading in an area where we have identified a level on a level situation. The new support level has been identified between $91.50-$92.89. The dollar risk to an investor while crude is trading at this level on level scenario is high. It would be prudent to wait for the commodity to break above/below either of the levels before taking a position. Ideally, crude will trade down to the $88.18-$89.65 range before taking a long position in crude. We have lowered our immediate resistance level for crude to $96.71-$97.36 as our next viable target.
Crude Futures 2 Year Daily Chart
Copper Futures
As copper attempts to right the direction from sideways to up, we have raised intermediate support to $3.091-$3.124. You will notice that copper has pushed through our level of $3.1602-$3.1835 last week. The risk may be too high in copper in its current trading pattern to identify opportunities. For this reason, we will avoid.
Copper Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Natural Gas Futures
There are no material changes to natural gas going into the new eek. Price has descended back into immediate support.
Gold Futures
As long as gold holds the current level and rallies away (up), then, we will finally get to engage in the long $GLD idea we have been waiting weeks for.
Gold Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
If gold does not rally away from immediate support we will look for a possible short opportunity or wait for gold to trade down to the $1221.20-$1231 level, which has been newly identified for the new week.
Gold Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Wheat Futures
There are no material changes to the price forecast for wheat futures going into the new week.
Wheat Futures 20 Year Monthly Chart
Soy Futures
There are no material changes to the price forecast for soy futures going into the new week.
Soy Futures 20 Year Monthly Chart
Corn Futures
There are no material changes to the price forecast for corn futures going into the new week.
Corn Futures 20 Year Monthly Chart
We believe the Equity markets move in a direction based on the correlation to Currency and Commodity markets. This is exactly the reason why the Multi-Asset Investment Model is used as our indicator of market direction and conviction of money flows. Once the analysis arrives at the Index Future, Broad Market and Sector forecast segments of the commentary; most of the heavy lifting has been completed. All that remains are the trend and levels that may require adjustment for market timing purposes. When used consistently, the multi-asset investment model can time market moves with a high degree of accuracy.
Index Futures Forecast
S&P Futures
Immediate support has been installed between 1953.75-1969.50. Notice how close the two support levels are with each other. The most attractive level to enter into fresh bullish positions will be the intermediate level, which was identified last week. We have identified an immediate resistance level between 2001.39-2015.74. Additionally, we have identified additional guidance for the index futures at 2053.72.
S&P Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Dow Futures
Immediate support has been installed between 16,641-16,752. Notice how close the two support levels are with each other. The most attractive level to enter into fresh bullish positions will be the intermediate level, which was identified last week.
Dow Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
NASDAQ Futures
Immediate support has been installed between 3947-3997.50. This level is fairly wide, which means your dollar risk will be high. It is suggested to identify opportunity in the other index futures should immediate support hold. Notice how close the two support levels are with each other. The most attractive level to enter into fresh bullish positions will be the intermediate level, which was identified last week.
NASDAQ Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Russell Futures
There are no material changes in the index futures for the upcoming week. The graph will not require maintenance.
Russell Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Our short Russell idea did not materialize this past week. Recall, that our idea was based on the U.S. stock markets rolling over. Obviously, the markets did not.
Russell Futures 1 Year Daily Chart
Broad Market Forecast
S&P 500 Index
The S&P traded into our target that was identified back in June. The next targets for the S&P should be 2018.81 and 2059.17 so long as the economic conditions remain in favor of a bullish stock market. We have revised immediate support to 1954.06-1966.55. Notice how close the two support levels are with each other. The most attractive level to enter into fresh bullish positions will be the intermediate level, which was identified last week.
S&P 500 Index 1 Year Daily Chart
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Immediate support has been installed between 16,661.91-16,781.27. Notice how close the two support levels are with each other. The most attractive level to enter into fresh bullish positions will be the intermediate level, which was identified last week.
Dow Jones Industrial Average 1 Year Daily Chart
NASDAQ Composite Index
The graph will not require maintenance for the upcoming week. We have identified additional guidance for the NASDAQ at 4693.61 provided that the economics support a continued bullish market.
NASDAQ Composite Index 1 Year Daily Chart
Russell 2000 Index
There were no material changes to the index over the past week. The graph will not require maintenance for the upcoming week.
Russell 2000 Index 1 Year Daily Chart
Sector Forecast
Industrial
Our target was met this past week for the sector. We have raised immediate support to $53.68-$53.96 and intermediate support to $52.87-$53.31 for the upcoming week.
Industrial Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Financial
We maintained a number of financial sector ideas from August 10, 2014 into last week. $AXP was the laggard of the ideas.
American Express 1 Year Daily Chart
Capital One Financial 1 Year Daily Chart
Fifth Third Bank 1 Year Daily Chart
For the upcoming week, we have raised immediate support to $22.82-$23.03. All other levels will remain for the new week.
Financial Sector ETF 1Year Daily Chart
Materials
The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as all levels are being respected.
Materials Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Transportation
Our $UPS idea from August 10, 2014, has performed well and traded into our first target this past week.
United Parcel Service 1 Year Daily Chart
The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as the levels are being respected.
Transportation Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Retail
The retail sector did surprise this past week with a great performance. We have made several adjustments to the graph. Immediate support has been raised to $86.62-$87.36 and intermediate support has been raised to $85.12-$85.81. The sector is nearing a level ($88.43-$88.95) that has been tested on two previous occasions. Additional guidance has been identified at $90.34. This is not a sector of interest to us.
Retail Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Utilities
The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as the levels are being respected.
Utilities Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Our $T idea which can be seen as a utilities stock or a technology play has not performed and in the event the market rolls over or the utilities sector rolls over, the idea will be stopped out for max loss.
AT & T 1 Year Daily Chart
Health Care
Target was met last week. Immediate support was raised to $61.88-$62.33 and intermediate support raised to $60.68-$61.26. Immediate resistance has been installed at $64.14-$64.76 and additional guidance identified at $66.49.
Health Care Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
The trade we had identified last week within the sector was not engaged.
Health Care Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Technology
The technology idea identified last week was not engaged since the market did not retrace.
Technology Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as all levels are being respected.
Technology Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Consumer Discretionary
Immediate support has been raised to $67.44-$67.89 and intermediate support has been raised to $66.33-$66.87. All other levels will be maintained for the upcoming week.
Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Energy
The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as all levels are being respected.
Energy Sector ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
World Markets
India
The market moved very little this past week; however, it was enough to warrant an adjustment. Immediate support has been raised to $70.03-$70.88 for the upcoming week. It is suggested to use this market as a temperature gauge, only. If you look at the graph, price jumps and gaps too often, which leads to higher dollar risk.
India ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Germany
The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as the levels are being respected.
Germany ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Japan
The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as the levels are being respected.
Japan ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
China
The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as the levels are being respected.
China ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Brazil
The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as the levels are being respected.
Brazil ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Russia
The graph will not require maintenance going into the new week as the levels are being respected.
Russia ETF 1 Year Daily Chart
Summary
There will be plenty of opportunity to be had once the market cools for its first technical pullback from the big run-up from August 8, 2014. It would be prudent to not add any long positions until the market retraces into immediate or intermediate support levels. It is possible to look for shorting opportunities; however, the immediate and intermediate support levels are fairly close to the current price of the stock market indices. The reward to risk ratios at these levels for a short isn’t very attractive. We will be looking for mainly index opportunities this week. Since there are level on level scenarios for 3 of the 4 major U.S. indices, it is suggested to prepare a bullish entry at immediate support for one index and a bullish entry at intermediate support in another index or even the same; that’s up to you. Additionally, it is suggested to not engage the NASDAQ index at immediate support due to the large trading range.