MADISON, Wis. – Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate rematch race between incumbent Ron Johnson, R-Oshkosh, and Democratic challenger Russ Feingold is officially a statistical dead heat, according to the latest Marquette University Law School poll.
The survey of political sentiment also finds Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s poll numbers slipping in the days following the release of a 2005 recording capturing lewd comments he made about women. But the reversal is not nearly as pronounced when looking at Trump’s head-to-head match-up with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
Within the margin
Feingold, the Middleton liberal who lost the Senate seat he held for three terms to Johnson in 2010, has a narrow lead of 46 percent to Johnson’s 44 percent among likely voters. That’s well within the Marquette poll’s margin of error of 3.9 percent among the 878 voters who said they were likely to vote next month.
Phil Anderson, the Libertarian candidate, received 4 percent support from likely voters, while 5 percent of respondents did not express a preference.
Johnson has made up a lot of ground since the middle of last month when the Marquette poll found Feingold up by 5 percentage points – 44 percent to 39 percent. It would seem Anderson’s loss is Johnson’s gain. The Libertarian candidate polled at 7 percent last month, with 10 percent of voters were undecided.
In a straight, head-to-head match-up between Johnson and Feingold, 48 percent of likely voters support the challenger; 46 percent favor Johnson. Feingold held a 6 percentage point advantage in the previous poll, 47 percent to 41 percent.
TIGHTENING RACE: The latest Marquette Law School poll shows U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and challenger Russ Feingold in a statistical dead heat less than a month before the election.
Again, the number of voters lacking a preference is dwindling, from 11 percent in the last poll to 6 percent in Wednesday’s poll.
The Johnson campaign for weeks has been saying its internal polling showed the race a lot closer than many of the polls, particularly the Marquette poll, suggested. Recently, a poll from Loras College in Dubuque, Iowa, found the incumbent leading Feingold 45 percent to 40 percent, with 9 percent undecided.
“Four weeks before Election Day, our campaign is in the best position yet going into the final stretch of this race. Public and private polling show a race that is consistently tightening and moving in our direction, strong fundraising numbers have eliminated Senator Feingold’s cash advantage, and our ground game is firing on all cylinders, passing two million volunteer voter contacts this week,” said Johnson campaign manager Betsey Ankney in a press release Tuesday.
Presidential contest
Clinton now leads Trump by 7 points in Wisconsin, 44 percent to 37 percent, according to the Marquette poll. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picked up 9 percent, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein garnered 3 percent support from respondents.
The poll was completed Oct. 6-9, before last Sunday’s presidential debate but beginning a day before the Washington Post’s story on the 2005 recordings in which Trump made crude comments about women.
“The publication appears to have caused a significant shift in Wisconsin voters’ attitudes, across several different demographics,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll.
In the previous poll, Clinton clung to a 3-point lead.
But the latest numbers on a head-to-head match-up show Clinton leading Trump 46 percent to 42 percent among respondents who said they are likely to vote. Another 9 percent had no preference. In September, Clinton led by 2 percentage points.
The release of the 2005 recording prompted several Republican leaders to bail on Trump, taking back their endorsements or, in the case of some, calling on Trump to step aside so another Republican could run in his place.
Trump did not attend a GOP unity rally last weekend in Walworth County following criticism of Trump’s comments by House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Janesville. Trump has spent the past several days in a very bitter public feud with the speaker and other “establishment” Republicans.
The latest Marquette poll began a day before the Washington Post story broke. On The first day, Trump led Clinton by 1 percentage point among likely voters. The following day, after the release of the recording, Clinton took a 6 percentage point lead.
“On Saturday and Sunday combined, Clinton led Trump by 19 percentage point,” according to a Marquette Law School poll press release.
Here’s how the numbers break down:
All Likely Voters
Thursday
Friday
Sat/Sunday
Clinton
40
44
49
Trump
41
38
30
Johnson
9
8
9
Stein
3
2
5
Clinton minus Trump margin
-1
+6
+19
“Shifts are also present across several demographic and political groups,” stated the press release. “Among men, Trump’s 12-point lead on Thursday expanded to a 16-point advantage Friday but reversed to a 1-point Clinton advantage Saturday and Sunday.”
“Among women, the shift was larger. A Thursday 9-point advantage for Clinton shifted to a 27‑point advantage on Friday and to a 33-point advantage on Saturday and Sunday,” the press release stated.
Evangelicals, core conserfative supporters, left Trump in droves. On the first day of the poll, Trump led Clinton by 40 points among the category of voters. That lead shrank to 23 percentage points on Friday and to 16 points on Saturday and Sunday, according to the poll.
Among independents, Clinton led by 1 point on Thursday, by 4 points on Friday and by 15 points on Saturday and Sunday.
Clinton and Trump remain dishonest in the minds of Wisconsin voters, with just 29 percent of the poll’s respondents saying “honest” is a word that describes Clinton. Trump fared slightly better, at 33 percent.
The poll also found Gov. Scott Walker’s approval numbers edging up slightly, and President Barack Obama’s moving slightly downward. Walker’s job approval rating checked in at 44 percent, up 1 percentage point from the last Marquette poll. Obama’s approval rating dropped 2 points, to 51 percent.