There’s no one way to look at and acquire a successful head coach in the NFL. They come from college and pro (and often both) backgrounds. Good head coaches come from both sides of the ball (and even special teams). You can find success stories from first-timers and retreads alike. Age is a relatively small factor with current coaches ranging from 41 to 67 years old. What should be expected of a head coach in his first season? We know Rob Chudzinski’s 4-12 mark didn’t meet this front office’s first-season goals, but what about the next guy? How many years did the most successful head guys have as a coordinator before taking their first job? We’ll discuss these topics, including a little conclusion about what it means in the candidacy of Adam Gase, Dan Quinn, Mike Pettine, Rich Bisaccia, and the rest. There’s a chart below for us to peruse for starters. It covers a lot of the data I just discussed, with offensive background coaches in red, defensive coaches in blue, and John Harbaugh in green for special teams.
Let’s start with the side of the football. I’ve heard a lot of discussion about the Browns (and many other teams, for that matter) looking for the “next great, young, offensive mind” and that the trend is to hire offensive head coaches. Well, as it stands now, 14 of the 31 head coaches currently have a primarily defensive background with one (John Harbaugh) having only coaching experience as a special teams coach. This offseason, we saw Lovie Smith (Tampa Bay) and Mike Zimmer (Minnesota) get coaching jobs with a defensive background, while the other four have went to offensive background coaches. Two of the Browns’ potential candidates in Dan Quinn (Seattle) and Mike Pettine (Buffalo) are from that side of the ball. You’ll notice that three of the four head coaches in the conference championship games yesterday have defensive backgrounds, and three more were eliminated earlier in the playoffs. To me, it’s relatively unimportant which side the Browns end up hiring, as long as they have an experienced coordinator balancing it out on the other side (Ex: Quinn and Gary Kubiak or Mike Munchak, Gase and Jim Schwartz). I think the Browns did get it right last year by bringing Turner and Horton in with the green Chudzinski, and while I think it’s unlikely they’ll be able to get two experienced coordinators so late in the game, I’m hopeful that they’ll get someone with previous head coach experience and a sound plan on the other side of the ball.
Time spent as a coordinator is a key factor that I think is worth researching. It’s a legitimate concern for me that both Gase and Quinn have each had just one year at a coordinator position in the NFL. Other coaches to have 1 year or less as a coordinator before getting their head coach job include Bill O’Brien, Chuck Pagano, Andy Reid, Tom Coughlin, Dennis Allen, Chip Kelly, Mike Tomlin, and Jim Harbaugh. Tomlin, Pagano, and Allen were each defensive coordinators for just one season with Minnesota, Baltimore, and Denver respectively before getting the call, while O’Brien was only officially offensive coordinator in New England for one season, though he was involved in the play calling seasons prior to that. Reid was a quarterbacks coach with an assistant head coach title for two seasons, and Coughlin and Kelly had only gone as high as college head coach prior to getting their first head coaching jobs (Coughlin’s being Jacksonville). While Allen’s had back-to-back 4-12 seasons in Oakland, both Tomlin and Pagano had early success with Tomlin grabbing the Lombardi trophy in just his second season and Pagano leading his team to the postseason in each of his first two years.
How impressive were those one year coordinators to get a coaching job? Well, Dennis Allen’s Broncos were just 17th in Pro Football Focus’s defensive rankings in 2011 (16th in yards per play, 24th in points per game), and the Saints teams he was a part of as secondary coach were among the worst defenses. Tomlin’s 2006 Vikings were 8th in yards per play, 14th in points per play. Pagano’s Ravens D in 2011 was 2nd in yardage, 3rd in points. Pagano is the 4th defensive coordinator from the Ravens defense in the Ray Lewis era (Marvin Lewis, Rex Ryan, Mike Nolan) to earn a head coaching job from their work in Baltimore. O’Brien’s Patriots offense was 3rd in both categories in 2011. O’Brien’s also one of many from the Belichick coaching tree that has now received a shot at a top job, including Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, and Josh McDaniels. Both Quinn and Gase are replacements for guys who got their first head coach position for their work with that unit (Mike McCoy to San Diego, Gus Bradley to Jacksonville). While both the Broncos offense and Seahawks defense improved this season, it goes without saying that each of these guys stepped into pretty good situations. Gase was the quarterbacks coach for two seasons prior in Denver, and Quinn had two years in as defensive line coach. However, Quinn went away for two seasons to run the defense for the University of Florida. Meanwhile, Pettine’s Bills D was 6th in yardage, 20th in points, but PFF ranked them as the 4th best defense with their cumulative rankings last year. For the four years prior, Pettine’s defenses with the Jets spent most of the time ranked as a top ten unit.
Now, let’s talk about first year record. It all depends on the direction of the front office, the talent of the roster inherited, and the progress made by the head coach. But, I think it’s interesting to see the spread of first year records on the current coaches.
Of course, Allen and possibly Bradley will be on the hot seat this coming season, but Super Bowl champion coaches Belichick and Coughlin didn’t have a positive start, and neither head coach in the upcoming Super Bowl had a winning season their first year, though they each had previous head coach experience to fall back on for credibility. Some have overcome the odds and had a breakout first year very recently, however. Arians and Kelly were each 10-6 in 2013 with Kelly’s Eagles winning the NFC East, and McCoy’s Chargers also made the playoffs and advanced to the divisional round. Andy Reid turned the Chiefs around from a 2-14 record to a 11-5 wild card team that looked like the best team in football for the first half of the season.
When it comes to coaches on their second (or third) time in the captain’s chair, most of them get there because of highly successful runs in their previous stop. Here’s a look at the years and stops for the so-called “retreads”.
Seven of the nine guys on this list had taken one of their previous teams to the Super Bowl, with Belichick and Carroll being the exceptions1. There’s no real strong candidates for the Browns to look at in this regard with Caldwell, Smith, and Whisenhunt now hired. Mike Munchak won 22 games in three seasons in Tennessee, plus the recently terminated Jim Schwartz, Mike Shanahan, and Leslie Frazier each had only one winning season and one playoff loss. The best answer for this type of coach would be Gary Kubiak, who led the Texans for eight seasons, had two winning seasons and two playoff wins. But, I think the Browns can do better.
So, who should the Browns choose? Your guess is as good as mine. I was a Mike Zimmer guy in last year’s search. Both last year and this year, I wanted them to talk to Greg Roman, San Francisco’s offensive coordinator, but we haven’t heard anything about that yet. I have my reservations about Gase’s success being tied to Manning as well as Quinn’s being tied to an elite defense and secondary. Pettine’s track record and success seems to be a little more extended over a five year period with two different teams. Bisaccia has had varying roles in Tampa Bay, San Diego, and Dallas since 2002 as special teams coach/coordinator and assistant head coach. Right now, I guess I’m leaning toward Pettine, but I’d be alright with either Gase or Quinn, and I can understand the Browns waiting to interview Gase.
In the meantime, as we’ve explored here, there’s no one blueprint for finding a successful NFL head coach. What we have to hope is that the front office learned from the Chudzinski hire last year and can find a leader that breaks the four years or less cycle2 that has plagued the franchise since their return in 1999. While it’s been difficult to see this process get drawn out into a fourth week with potentially two more weeks to go before resolution, I’ll still take it over the abbreviated searches that landed us Eric Mangini and Pat Shurmur.
(Photo: Bill Wippert/The Buffalo News)
___________________________________________________
Footnotes:
Carroll did, however, lead USC to national titles in 2003 and 2004.
Romeo Crennel leads the way with 64 games coached in four full seasons, closely followed by Butch Davis’s 59.