“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.” - Ronald Reagan
Optimism for an improving U.S. economy under Donald Trump has underpinned investors’ appetite for equities. American consumer inflation expectations hit a 19-month high in January, which should be welcome news for the Federal Reserve as it contends with Trump’s still-unclear economic plans. Yellen will start testimony in Congress on Tuesday in Washington. China’s producer prices increased the most since 2011, further lifting the outlook for global reflation with the world’s biggest exporter poised to give more support to gains.
Stocks moved mostly higher during trading on Monday, extending the uptrend trend seen over the past several sessions. With the upward move on the day, the major averages once again climbed to new record closing highs.
The major averages ended the day firmly in positive territory but off their highs of the session. The Dow advanced 142.79 points or 0.7 percent to 20,412.16, the Nasdaq rose 29.83 points or 0.5 percent to 5,736.96 and the S&P 500 climbed 12.15 points or 0.5 percent to 2,328.15.
The markets continued to benefit from recent upward momentum spurred in part by optimism about reduced corporate taxes under President Donald Trump.
The strength on Wall Street came despite a lack of major U.S. economic data, although the economic calendar picks up considerably over the next several days.
A report on producer price inflation is due on Tuesday, while a slew of data is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, including reports on consumer prices, retail sales and industrial production.
Reports on regional manufacturing activity, housing starts, and homebuilder confidence are also scheduled to be released this week.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony before Congress is also likely to attract attention along with speeches by a number of other Fed officials.
Steel stocks showed a substantial move to the upside on the day, driving the NYSE Arca Steel Index up by 3.8 percent. With the jump, the index has reached best closing level in well over two years.
Considerable strength was also visible among financial stocks, with the Dow Jones Banks and the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index climbing by 1.2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
Airline and electronic storage stocks also saw notable strength, while gold stocks bucked the uptrend amid a decrease by the price of the precious metal.
In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly higher during trading on Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index rose by 0.4 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index advanced by 0.6 percent.
The major European markets also moved to the upside on the day. While the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index has rose by 0.3 percent, the German DAX Index climbed by 0.9 percent and the French CAC 40 Index jumped by 1.2 percent.
In the bond market, treasuries moved lower for the third consecutive session amid the continued strength on Wall Street. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 2.5 basis points to 2.434 percent.
Trading on Tuesday may be impacted by reaction to the Labor Department's report on producer prices in the month of January.
U.S. Treasuries also finished the day in the red, leaving the 10-yr note with its fourth consecutive loss. The benchmark 10-yr yield finished two basis points higher at 2.43%.
Today, is 'Turnaround Tuesday', so look for a pullback. The truth is the DJ Industrials are extended enough to warrant a 200 point plus retracement here.
MARKET STATS FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 13:
The DJ Industrials closed up 142.79 at 20412.16 touching 20441.98, both record highs.
The SPX closed up 12.15 at 2328.25 touching 2331.58, both record highs.
The Dow Transports closed up 138.27 at 9241.56. A a new bull market high at 9502.50 was posted on January 26.
The Nasdaq Comp closed up 29.83 at 5763.96 touching 5770.79, both record highs.
The Russell 2000 closed up 3.53 1t 1392.38 touching 1398.60, a new bull market high eclipsing the 1392.71 high posted on December 9, 2016.
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at 15756.58 up 27.46 and the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index closed at 837.24 up 1.08.
Gold closed down 8.20 at 1225.70. The current rally has carried from 1122.90 on December 15 to 1245.40 on February 8. The July 6, 2016 high at 1373.70 is the next big target.
The XAU Index closed down .90 at 94.51.
Silver closed down .14 at 17.90.
Platinum closed down 13.00 at 1001.
Palladium closed down 9.00 at 779.00.
Copper closed up .114 at 2.7620.
Crude Oil closed down .93 at 52.93.
Natural Gas closed down .09 at 2.928.
Ux U308 (Uranium) up 1.50 at 26.00 on February 6 as posted on https://www.uxc.com/Default.aspx
Bitcoin traded surged again to a new high on February 9 trading at 1077.76 and then sold off. Recently, Bitcoin sold down to 770.53 by January 11. It closed Monday at 994.48. GBTC, the Bitcoin ETF, closed up .05 at 105.55. We remain long GBTC. It's recent high was 152.00 on January 4.
U.S. Treasury Bonds closed down 17/32 at 151 12/32.
The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 101.01 up .21. The recent low is 99.43 on January 31. The recent bull market high is 103.63 from December 28.
The Canadian Dollar via the FXC Exchange Traded Fund was up .06 at 75.57.
The VIX closed down .02 at 10.85.
January Producer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in December. Excluding food and energy, January Producer Pricesare expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in December.
January Consumer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in December. Excluding food and energy, January Consumer Prices are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in December.
February Empire State Manufacturing Index to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to 7.0 from 6.5 in January.
January Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.6% in December. Excluding auto sales, January Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.2% in December.
January Capacity Utilization to be released at 9:15 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to remain unchanged from December at 75.5%. January Industrial Production is expected toremain unchanged versus a gain of 0.8% in December.
December Business Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.7% in November.
January Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to slip to 1,220,000 units from 1,226,000 units in December.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase to 245,000 from 234,000 last week.
February Philly Fed Index to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to slip to 17.5 from 23.6 in January.
January Leading Economic Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.5% in December.
EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WEEK:
Tuesday: Agilent Technologies, AIG, CAE, Devon Energy, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Pan-American
Silver
Wednesday: Applied Materials, CBS, CF Industries, Cineplex, Cisco, Entergy, Goldcorp, Kinross Gold, Kraft Heinz, Marathon Oil. Pepsico.
Thursday: Avon Products, Fortis, Inter Pipeline, Scana, TransCanada, Wendy’s, Yamana Gold
Friday: Air Canada, Campbell Soup, Deere, Enbridge, JM Smucker, Moody’s, VF Corp.
Killing the Trade Golden Goose: Farmers Rattled by Trump’s NAFTA Rescinding Plans
It’s fair to presume NAFTA is not the sole cause of the increase in trade, but it is fair to presume that NAFTA helped. Increased trade is a benefit to both parties, otherwise, the trade would not take place.
Trump now threatens to kill the trade golden goose and US farmers are in the crosshairs of the dispute. Any unraveling of NAFTA could hit deeply enmeshed cross-border food supply chains
Please consider US Farmers Rattled by Trump’s Mexico Plans.
Corn is the biggest of the US’s $17.7bn in agricultural exports to Mexico, a value that has risen fivefold since the countries signed the North American Free Trade Agreement. Mexico’s exports to the US have grown even faster to $21bn, led by fruits and vegetables such as lemons and avocados.
Farmers, traders and food executives on both sides of the border are therefore paying close attention to Donald Trump. The US president has pledged to revise Nafta, wall off the border and possibly slap Mexican imports with tariffs. Trade in agriculture could end up a casualty.
Trump has already withdrawn from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal with strong farm-belt support. He has called Nafta, which also includes Canada, “unfair” and a “catastrophe”.
The president’s comments suggest he is more concerned about manufacturing jobs than where food is produced. But US farm groups fear being targeted by Mexico in retaliation. Richard Feltes of commodities broker RJ O’Brien in Chicago, says: “The soft spot for Trump would be hitting back at America’s heartland.” Most states in the US corn belt voted for the president.
Unravelling Nafta could be complicated because US and Mexican food supplies have become deeply enmeshed. In the beef market, calves raised on pastures in Mexican states such as Chihuahua are sent across the border at about a year old. Texas feedlots fatten them, then US packing plants slaughter them. Cuts of beef such as chucks and rounds are shipped back to Mexican cities.
The top 10 companies exporting foodstuffs from the US to Mexico include trading houses such as Bartlett Grain, ADM, Cargill and CHS, as well as meat companies such as Tyson Foods and JBS, according to Panjiva, a trade data company. The top 10 companies shipping north include Driscoll’s, a berry grower; Grupo Viz, a Mexican meat supplier; Mondelez, the US snacks company; and Mission Produce, an avocado producer.
Likely Effects of a Trade War for U.S. Agriculture? Sad!
Joseph Glauber, a Senior Research Fellow for the International Food Policy Research Institute and a former Chief Economist for the USDA says Likely Effects of a Trade War for U.S. Agriculture?
How important is trade to US agriculture? US agricultural exports averaged over $142 billion over 2013-15. Over the same period, the US enjoyed a $25 billion net agricultural trade balance. Based on the value of agricultural production, roughly one-third of what is produced by US farmers and ranchers is exported and for many commodities such as soybeans, wheat, and cotton, more than 50 percent of the crop is typically exported. Moreover, with a slowing population growth rate at home, more than 97 percent of the anticipated population growth over the next 35 years is anticipated to take place outside of US borders. Those facts explain why US agricultural interests have been such strong supporters of free trade agreements in the past.
US agricultural exports to China, Canada and Mexico averaged $63 billion over 2013-15, accounting for 44 percent of total agricultural exports. In addition, sales by US-owned food processing companies in Canada, Mexico, and China totaled more than $58 billion in 2014 and accounted for about 25 percent of sales of US-owned food processing companies worldwide.
Actions by President Trump to make good on campaign promises to raise tariffs on China exports to 45 percent would surely be met with countermeasures that could potentially devastate US agricultural exports. While some have argued that China would be unlikely to cut off food imports necessary to meet their growing consumer demand, those arguments ignore the fact that there are many other suppliers in the world – particularly in South America and the Black Sea Region – which have the capacity to ramp up production and exports to meet those demands. US farmers and ranchers would likely be the primary losers, particularly as China demand increases over the long run. The President-elect has also blamed NAFTA, particularly Mexico, for many of the economic woes facing the United States, and has threatened to renegotiate an agreement that has been in force since 1994 (and in the case of the Canadian-US free trade agreement since 1989). With a few key exceptions, trade in agricultural products under NAFTA is now free of tariff and quota restrictions. Bilateral agricultural trade between the US and Canada has grown at an annual rate of 7.3 percent since 1990 and averaged $43.7 billion over 2013-15. Bilateral trade between the US and Mexico has grown at an 8.3 percent annual rate since 1990 and averaged $37.7 billion over 2013-15.
Since the election, a number of farm leaders and Congressional members have sought to moderate the President-elect’s views on trade. Whether their views will alter his actions is thus far uncertain. In his book Peddling Protectionism: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression, Douglas Irwin recounts how economists at the time were almost unanimous in their opposition to passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act that raised tariffs on more than 20,000 imported goods. To that end, a petition signed by 1,028 American economists was presented to then President Herbert Hoover to veto the legislation. For US farmers (as well as US consumers) let’s hope the current President-elect heeds the warning more than did his predecessor.
It’s impossible to make a realistic case that NAFTA hurt the US. The seeds of trade imbalances were sewn in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. The trade deficit rose, then skyrocketed.
Smoot-Hawley did not cause the Great Depression, but it certainly made matters much worse. In general, that’s precisely what tariffs do in every case.
No one wins trade wars. Both sides always lose something. In the case of unwinding NAFTA, Mexico would get hit harder, but US farmers would also pay a price.
Net it all out, and US farm losses will be much greater than manufacturing gains (if indeed any).
Manufacturing Employment as Percentage of Total Employment
The manufacturing percentage of nonfarm employment is under 8.5%, down from nearly 39% during WW II. If farm employment was factored in, the current percentage would be even lower.
Discounting war effects, there was a steady decline in the percentage of people employed in manufacturing from 1952 until 2009. That persistent decline has finally tapered off.
Trump is fighting a problem that no longer even exists! Perhaps he backs down again.
Killing the Trade Golden Goose: Farmers Rattled by Trump’s NAFTA Rescinding Plans
Israel works on ‘digital Iron Dome’ for cyberdefense
Israel seeks to create a digital equivalent to the Iron Dome to fend off cyber attacks.
Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system has been used in recent years to intercept and destroy rockets launched by Hamas from the Gaza Strip. It has proven highly effective in protecting civilian populations from the rocket threat.
The defense shield Israel would like to install to protect its cyberspace “will not just be one system, but a combination of several systems that together will enable us to be in a much better place” vis-a-vis cyberattacks, Matania said Monday at a briefing with reporters at the CyberTech 2017 Conference in Tel Aviv. “In several years, I think we will be in a much different position, with all the systems working together.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in 2012 that Israel was developing a “digital Iron Dome” system to protect against daily cyberattacks, noting that it would take time.
Some of the systems are already in place, Matania said, like the newly installed Cyber Net, while others are still in the research and development phase, being worked on jointly by government organizations and private industry, he said.
The Cyber Net, which Israel is currently piloting, enables Israel’s National CERT (computer emergency response team), based in the southern city of Beersheba, to connect with the cyberdefense teams of both public and private organizations, from all sectors in the economy, to share information about attacks in a bid to avert others.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-works-on-digital-iron-dome-for-cyberdefense/
WALL STREET RAW RADIO - WITH HOST MARK LEIBOVIT AND GUESTS SINCLAIR NOE, HENRY WEINGARTEN, HARRY BOXER AND ROB LEVY FROM BORDER GOLD. FEBRUARY 11, 2017.
http://tinyurl.com/j8dmxn2
The program airs at 10:00 AM ET at http://www.gcnlive.com and on a delayed broadcast Noon ET on Sunday at KFNN 1510 -http://www.kfnn.comin Phoenix.
Do you subscribe to the Cannabis/Vice Letter?
Love them or hate them, Vice stocks make investors money, which is why most people are in the stock market to begin with. “Sin” stocks—or maybe you prefer the term “vice” better—are generally made up of publicly traded companies that deal with alcohol, arms, sex, tobacco, and gambling. And whether the economy is doing well or not, chances are good that consumers will buy cigarettes, drink alcohol, go to strip clubs, and buy guns. And chances are also really good that Washington is going to maintain its military spending. On top of that, many sin stocks, especially cigarette makers, provide consistent annual dividend growth. That makes sin stocks pretty attractive in a near-zero interest rate environment. Vice stocks can afford to pay out solid dividends because their underlying products don’t cost very much to make. At the same time, they all have high barriers to entry, so competition isn’t exactly fierce. As a result, sin stocks have everything I look for when it comes to stock market investing. They have a resiliency that other stocks lack.
The Vice Letter can be purchased at www.LeibovtVRnewsletters.com or through this link:
http://leibovitvrnewsletters.c
om/products/vice-letter/
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Do you subscribe to the Leibovit VR Gold Letter?
http://leibovitvrnewsletters.
com/the-leibovit-newsletters-p
roducts/leibovit-vr-gold-lette
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JOIN THE JULY 9-16 ALASKAN CRUISE:
http://tinyurl.com/hmuympz
CRUISE OFFER IS EXTENDED. USE THIS LINK TO SIGN UP:
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VR signals are currently available through Metastock, eSignal and TradeStation.
What is a Leibovit Volume Reversal (VR)? You can learn how to use this positive indicator and begin picking your own trades! A Leibovit Volume Reversal ™ is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction day accompanied by a increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day to Rally day accompanied by an in-crease in volume. IT THIS THE MAJOR TOOL I USE THAT TRIGGERS MOST TRADING OPPORTUNITIES.
Leibovit Volume Reversals ™ coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance in helping to define those lows or highs and important pivot points in the marketplace.
Here is an introduction to the eSignal platform where you can also order the VR ‘Add-on’ tool:
http://www.esignal.com/partner
s/add-on-formula-studies/leibo
vit-volume-reversal.aspx?tc=15
206
Here is the June 1, 2016 eSignal Webinar:
http://tinyurl.com/hcjbgr5
Also, check out the following link to sign up for Metastock and watch an introductory video:
http://www.metastock.com/produ
cts/thirdparty/?3PC-ADD-VRIS#t
hirdparty/3PC-ADD-VRIS
And here is a recent (June 1, 2016) webinar I did at TradeStation describing the Leibovit Volume Reversal:
https://tradestation.tradingap
pstore.com/products/LeibovitVo
lumeReversal
The Volume Reversal ™ is registered trademark and can only be used or quoted after receiving express written permission from VRTrader.com and Mark Leibovit.
I occasionally post a Leibovit VR tutorial demonstrating my use of the VR indicator on the various platforms. Meanwhile, I am available for personal consultation (mentoring) on the use of the VRindicator. Just drop me an emailatmark.vrtrader@gmail.com
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Writing a book is an adventure. To begin with it is a toy, an amusement; then it is a mistress, and then a master, and then a tyrant.”
-Winston Churchill (British statesman, 1874-1965)
My book,”The Trader’s Book of Volume”
(published by McGraw-Hill) is available in both in English and now CHINESE!
Here is the link to Amazon.com:
http://tinyurl.com/3wms9q2
Here is the Trader's Press Link:
http://www.invest-store.com/vr
trader/
Here is the link to Kindle:
http://tinyurl.com/z7bt66g
From Yale Hirsch:
“My 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac was dedicated to THE NEW PROGNOSTICATORS. Mark Leibovit was one of them. I evidently had insight as Timer Digest named Mark the “Number One Market Timer for the 10-year period ending in 2007.” For the 10 years ending 2009, he was #2 intermediate MarketTimer. He is also their #1 Gold Market Timer for 2011. This book should be REQUIRED READING for anyone who trades.”
Don’t hesitate to check out my Twitter, Stocktwits, YouTube channel, Facebook and LinkedIn links below:
My Twitter account is @TheVolumeMan
https://www.twitter.com/
My Stocktwits account name is VolumeMan.
http://stocktwits.com/home#peo
ple-and-stocks
My Youtube link is:
https://www.youtube.com/result
s?search_query=mark+leibovit
My Facebook link is:
https://www.facebook.com/pages
/VRtradercom-Inc/4528992048065
09
And, Linkedin are:
https://www.linkedin.com/nhome
/
AMERICAN JOURNALISM - LIBERAL BIASES HAVE RESULTED IN THE PRESS SHUNNING FROM THEIR DUTY AS CUSTODIANS OF THE FOURTH ESTATE AND THEY DON'T EVEN CARE! THE BARE TRUTH IS THAT THEY ARE LIARS! THEY ARE NOT JOURNALISTS. THEY ARE BIASED COMMENTATORS! LIKELY SEDITIONISTS! ACCORDING TO STEVE BANNON, DONALD TRUMP'S CHIEF POLITICAL STRATEGIST, "THE MEDIA IS THE OPPOSITION PARTY".
But who needs facts when you have a complicit media eager to advance whatever propaganda is necessary to maintain power?
“Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please.” - Mark Twain
You may know that I have a background (B.S. in Broadcast Journalism) and I've warned that the state of American journalism is on the verge of collapse in both the financial and political arenas. Ideology has permeated hard news coverage. The pollsters and their sponsors who were seeking to promote their ideology with false narrative lost.They are members of the rigged system that puts their interests ahead of the interests of the American people. Political correctness overshadows the truth. The press who were the lapdogs to the White House and the Wall Street and the Democratic Party have lost, but we must remain vigilant. Our duty is not only to watch Washington, D.C. and President Donald Trump but also to keep a watchful eye on the press whose cast of characters have not changed. Michael Savage correctly stated in his seminal work 'Liberalism Is a Mental Disorder' published in 2005.
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.”
― Marcus Tullius Cicero
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Dead Doctors Don't Lie - The Original 1994 Tape By the 'Superstar of Alternative Medicine' Dr. Joel Wallach. You have got to listen to this. It has been of the most profound factors in my own approach to health and health supplements. If you like what you hear check out my http://WallStreetRawHealth.com link below for more info. Yes, I use this supplements myself.
http://tinyurl.com/jjn4j3k
http://www.wallstreetrawhealth
.com/index.php?101347935
To anger a conservative, lie to him. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth. --- Theodore Roosevelt
BE INSPIRED- WATCH HIGH FLIGHT
This film poem gives me goosebumps and tears, especially knowing that the poet, John Gillespie Magee, Jr., an American Pilot serving in the Royal Canadian Air Force in England, died at 19 years old (December 11, 1941) in a training mid-air collision over Lincolnshire, just three months after writing it. You might all remember this. I am planning of using it at the beginning of my weekly radio show.
http://tinyurl.com/hywegz5
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THERE IS NO FREEDOM WITHOUT THE LAW
The post VRTRADER SILVER FOR FEBRUARY 14, 2017 - IT'S 'TURNAROUND TUESDAY'! appeared first on The Leibovit VR Newsletter.