Eye on Iran: White House on Damage Control after Aide's Magazine Profile
Top Stories
AP: "The White House on Monday worked to contain the damage caused by one of President Barack Obama's closest aides, who, in a seemingly candid, behind-the-curtain magazine story, ripped the Washington press corps, boasted of creating an 'echo chamber' of supporters to sell the Iran nuclear deal and appeared to dismiss long-time foreign policy hands, including Hillary Clinton, as the Blob. Deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes' comments to The New York Times Magazine have sparked a mix of bewilderment and outrage in Washington's political and policy circles. While some marveled at a savvy White House aide's apparent eagerness to discuss what some consider the ugly sausage making of modern governing, other noted he'd kicked up a hornet's nest of a debate over whether the White House oversold the legacy-burnishing deal to curb Iran's nuclear program. The article revived criticism of the agreement. In a statement issued Monday, Sen. John McCain, a long-time critic of the Iran pact, said the piece 'provided a troubling glimpse of the White House spin machine that has put sustaining 'the narrative' above advancing the national interest.' The piece portrays Rhodes, Obama's top foreign policy speechwriter and arguably one of his most influential aides, as singularly in tune with his boss's thinking and narrowly focused on crafting a messaging machine to support it. It quotes Rhodes lamenting the ignorance of Washington reporters. ('They literally know nothing.') And it describes Rhodes, a former aspiring novelist, as focused on crafting a storyline and dismissing facts that don't fit. Rhodes appears to try to keep secret news that Iran had seized 10 U.S. Navy sailors until after the president's State of the Union speech. The article quotes Rhodes and his aides describing how they used social media, journalists and friendly interest groups to disseminate White House-generated talking points about the Iran deal. 'We created an echo chamber,' Rhodes said. 'They were saying things that validated what we had given them to say.' Rhodes sought to soften the remarks on the website Medium. A post late Sunday included something of an overture to reporters he's dismissed, saying the Iran deal had been well-covered and debated. He wrote that he didn't try to dupe the press or spin Washington... Still, some experts involved in the debate said they recognized the hard sell described in the story. David Albright, a physicist and arms control expert with the Science and International Security in Washington, said he was surprised to see a White House official 'opening up this can of worms again.' The intensity of the debate over the Iran deal left many in the arms control and policy world bruised, not the least because of the White House's take-no-prisoners approach, said Albright, who was briefed by the administration during the negotiations and remained neutral on the deal. 'It was, Are you with us or are you against us?' Albright said, 'The White House was looking for sound bites that beat the opposition, not necessarily sound bites that captured the truth of what was going on. I wish they were just putting out facts. They exaggerated and overstated to sell the deal.'" http://t.uani.com/24IjpG9
Mehr (Iran): "Iran's FM Zarif has announced that Iran's foreign policy is guided directly by Leader of the Islamic Revolution. Speaking to the elected candidates for the 10th Iranian Parliament, who had gathered together on Saturday morning with the aim of explaining the requirements of legislation in the new era, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif deemed foreign policy as a national and non-partisan issue stating 'our view of the requirements of foreign policy and sovereign and dignified presence in the world is based on the principle that the country's foreign policy should only serve national interests at regional and international levels.' 'For the reason, the Leader himself remains at the helm of outlining foreign policy as his prominent role is quite evident as we are committed to his commands and comments,' he added... Mohammad Javad Zarif later announced two serious priorities of the Foreign Ministry in the days and months ahead as ensuring proper implementation of the JCPOA by Westerners and well as coordinated confrontation with the threats of terrorism and extremism; 'JCPOA was a historical necessity and was led by the Leader in special conditions of the country and no agent in the world would claim that Iran has suffered a loss in the nuclear deal.' Iranian FM went on to touch upon what he called the Special conditions of the country before the JCPOA enumerating various difficulties felt due to sanctions including oil sale and money transmission restrictions; 'meanwhile, the South Korean president traveled to Iran accompanied by 240 Korean firms with 25 million dollars of finance though several other states had previously visited Iran with billion-dollar plans to participate in the country.' .... The official further added 'our enemies, especially the Zionists are desperately seeking to induce unsafe conditions in Iran and to deter foreign investors from participating in Iran; consequently, we must promote the fact that Iran is the safest and most profitable country for investment regardless of differences in views.'" http://t.uani.com/24K1rq3
AFP: "Iran is preparing international legal action to recover nearly $2 billion that the US Supreme Court has ordered be paid as compensation to American victims of terror attacks, President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday. 'We will soon take the case of the $2 billion to the international court,' Rouhani said in a televised speech. 'We will not allow the United States to swallow this money so easily,' the president said to a crowd of thousands in the southeastern city of Kerman. The US Supreme Court ruled on April 20 that Iran must hand nearly $2 billion in frozen central bank assets to the survivors and relatives of those killed in attacks it has been accused of organising. The attacks include the 1983 bombing of a US Marine barracks in Beirut and the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia. The Supreme Court ruling affects some 1,000 Americans." http://t.uani.com/1T7wM0y
Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Program
WSJ: "An Iranian military official said Iran conducted its third ballistic missile test-firing since the country's landmark nuclear deal went into effect in January, but a few hours later Iran's defense minister countered the report. The semiofficial Tasnim News Agency reported earlier Monday that the country fired a missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) two weeks ago, citing Brig. Gen. Ali Abdollahi. The missile was precision-guided and could accurately strike a target with a 26-foot margin of error, he said. But Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan said Iran hadn't test-fired a missile of the range cited by the media, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency, an apparent reference to the Tasnim report. He nevertheless said Iran was moving forward in building up its defensive capabilities, including through its ballistic missile program... 'We remain deeply concerned about Iran's ballistic missile test-launches, which are provocative and destabilizing,' a senior Obama administration official said Monday. 'These launches are inconsistent with U.N. Security Council resolution 2231, in which the Security Council called upon Iran not undertake any launches of ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon.' Obama administration critics blamed the White House for what one, Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.), called 'Iran's growing belligerence in the aftermath of the reckless Iran nuclear deal.'" http://t.uani.com/1TxW3eG
Reuters: "The United States said on Monday it could not confirm reports that Iran had tested a precision-guided missile two weeks ago but if true such a step would be provocative and destabilizing. 'We are aware of Iranian comments on an additional ballistic missile launched,' State Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau told a briefing, saying any launch by Iran would be inconsistent with a U.N. Security Council resolution. 'We remained concerned about Iran's ballistic missile test launch which are provocative and destabilizing.'" http://t.uani.com/1qbaUUl
Free Beacon: "Fox News correspondent James Rosen reported Monday that the Obama administration campaigned extensively to deceive the media and the American people about key aspects of the Iran nuclear deal. Appearing on Special Report with Bret Baier, Rosen explained how Ben Rhodes, the White House deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, led a public relations effort to spin a narrative about the Iran nuclear agreement that was contrary to facts... Rosen also reported for the first time that video from a State Department press briefing two years ago showing possible deception by the administration had been deleted for unknown reasons. 'Late today, we discovered that the State Department's video of its December 2, 2013, press briefing, at which I confronted spokesperson Jen Psaki about the false statement made by her predecessor, Victoria Nuland ... has itself, with the use of a white flash, been deleted from both the State Department's official website and from its YouTube channel,' Rosen reported. 'In that exchange, Psaki effectively admitted that the administration had lied to me because the diplomacy [between the United States and Iran] needed privacy,' Rosen added. 'The State Department told me just moments ago it cannot explain this deletion and is working to restore the excised material.'" http://t.uani.com/1ZAVJzP
U.S.-Iran Relations
Politico: "A former U.S. Marine who was held prisoner in Iran for more than four years is suing the Islamist-led country, seeking damages for torture he endured while in custody, his lawyers announced Monday. Amir Hekmati, an Iranian-American from Michigan, was convicted on vague espionage charges after being taken into custody while on a visit to Iran. He and three other Americans of Iranian descent were released earlier this year as part of a prisoner swap negotiated between Iranian officials and the Obama administration. The lawsuit has been filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, and it seeks economic, compensatory, and punitive damages from a country that does not have diplomatic ties with the United States and is unlikely to recognize any court ruling against it. According to a news release, the complaint maintains that 'Iran's despicable behavior was outside the scope of immunity provided by the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA) and therefore subjects Iran to suit in the United States.' It says that Hekmati was subject to beatings, sleep deprivation, forced drugging and psychological abuse. 'Iran's treatment of Amir Hekmati was utterly contemptible,' his attorney, Scott Gilbert, said in a statement. 'Amir can never be adequately compensated for his suffering. ... Our intention, with the filing of this lawsuit, is to attempt to provide at least some measure of justice for Amir and his family.'" http://t.uani.com/1Wn4EHO
Business Risk
Al-Monitor: "Since a landmark nuclear deal went into effect in January, US officials have conducted roundtables with banking officials in more than 15 countries, but failed to reassure major foreign banks that it is OK for them to return to Iran, Al-Monitor has learned. A business source briefed on the issue told Al-Monitor at a May 3-4 business conference in Zurich on condition of anonymity that two Swiss banks - Credit Suisse and UBS - were among those approached by officials from the US Department of State and the US Treasury. Most big foreign banks have so far rejected a return to Iran for a host of reasons, including heavy fines paid to the US government for past sanctions violations and concerns that the sanctions environment could change again for the worse. Gregg Rosenberg, a spokesman for UBS, told Al-Monitor that his bank was not going to handle Iran business. 'At this time there are no changes to our global sanctions policy, which restricts business activity with or involving Iran, including client activity such as payments or trading that involves Iran,' Rosenberg said in an email. A Credit Suisse spokeswoman had a similar reply: 'As a global bank Credit Suisse complies with various national and international sanctions programs. While the international community has recently lifted a part of the sanctions against Iran, other Iran sanctions that impact our Bank's international operations remain in place. Credit Suisse maintains its general policy to abstain from conducting business with or involving Iran. We continue to closely monitor the situation.' ... Mostafa Beheshti Rouy, an executive board member and director of international affairs for Bank Pasargad, Iran's largest bank, told Al-Monitor that only third-tier European banks have shown any willingness to re-enter the Iranian market... In addition, a spokesman for the Obama administration told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, 'Iran has kept its end of the deal, and we have upheld ours and are committed to continuing to do so.' The official added, 'Iran is already seeing real benefits from the sanctions lifting that occurred in January - nearly doubling its oil sales, beginning to access funds abroad and starting to reconnect to the international banking sector.' The official acknowledged, however, that 'questions remain' about what foreign companies can and cannot do, which is why 'Treasury and State officials have traveled worldwide to meet with government and private sector partners to provide clarity on our sanctions. ... While we are committed to providing clarity on the sanctions issues that are within our control, the reality is that there are factors beyond our control that also continue to slow Iran's economic engagement - including corruption and lack of transparency in its financial and business sectors. These are issues that have nothing to do with sanctions, and Iran has its own work to do to address these and earn the confidence of international companies and financial institutions.' ... In addition, there is uncertainty surrounding the future of sanctions because of US presidential elections." http://t.uani.com/27ay66U
Bloomberg: "Companies are delaying investment decisions [in Iran] pending the result of the U.S. presidential election, Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC, says at Platts Global Crude Oil Summit in London." http://t.uani.com/1sa4DKy
Sanctions Enforcement
WSJ: "Freight railway company Burlington Northern Santa Fe, a unit of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., disclosed payments possibly in violation of Iran sanctions made by a foreign subsidiary, the company said in a securities filing. BNSF said one of its foreign subsidiaries made sales through a third party entity that may have involved the government of Iran from 2013 to 2015. The total revenue from the sales was $45,000 and the net income for the company was around $2,500, the securities filing said. The company said it notified the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control, U.S. Department of Commerce and Bureau of Industry and Security Friday about its investigation. 'We will submit further information to OFAC and BIS after completing an internal investigation, which we are conducting with the assistance of outside counsel, and we intend to cooperate fully with both agencies,' the securities filing Friday said." http://t.uani.com/1TCaoGt
Sanctions Relief
Reuters: "U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet representatives of British and European banks in London on Thursday to discuss issues involved in doing business with Iran, a British banking industry source said on Tuesday. The United States and Europe lifted sanctions in January under a deal with Iran to limit its nuclear programme, but other U.S. sanctions remain, including a ban on transactions with Iran in dollars being processed through the U.S. financial system. This has meant that few European banks, and none of the big ones that have deep relationships with the U.S. banking system, have been willing to get involved in trade with Iran, much to Tehran's frustration. The British Bankers' Association confirmed a meeting was due to take place between Kerry and representatives from member banks, but declined to provide further details. An industry source in London said Iran would be the focus of the meeting and representatives from several European banks would also be involved." http://t.uani.com/1UPyp25
Military Matters
AFP: "Iran's army is now equipped with a Russian air defence system after a long and controversial delivery process, Defence Minister General Hossein Dehghan was quoted as saying Tuesday. 'I inform our people that... we are in possession of the strategic S-300 system' and that it 'serves our air force's counterattack command,' Dehghan said, according to ISNA news agency. Parts of the system, including missile tubes and radar equipment, were displayed on April 17 during a military parade in southern Tehran. The United States and Israel have criticised Russia for the sale of the S-300 system to the Islamic republic... Dehghan also announced that Iran will start manufacturing this year an air defence system, Bavar 373, 'capable of destroying cruise missiles, drones, combat aircraft and ballistic missiles.' 'This long-range system is able to destroy several targets at once,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1Npig23
Syria Conflict
Reuters: "Up to half-a-dozen Iranian soldiers deployed in Syria have been captured by rebel forces, a senior Iranian lawmaker said on Monday, two days after the Iranian Revolutionary Guards confirmed losses in a battle near Aleppo... Rebels seized the village of Khan Touman on Friday, some 15 km (9 miles) southwest of Aleppo, and killed several Iranian soldiers, dealing one of Tehran's biggest losses in Syria. 'According to the latest numbers, 13 defenders of the shrine were killed, 18 were wounded and five to six were captured,' Esmail Kosari, chairman of the Iranian parliament's defense committee, was quoted as saying by the Mizan Online news agency... It was the first time Iran had confirmed that any of its combatants had been taken prisoner in Syria. In December, Islamist rebels in Khan Touman said they had seized two Iranians but that was never confirmed by Tehran." http://t.uani.com/21SjjKj
Saudi-Iran Tensions
WSJ: "Low oil prices have also forced the kingdom to scramble to fend off competition for oil buyers from Asia to the U.S. Saudi Arabian officials have warily eyed the rise of Iranian exports as the Islamic Republic ramps up production following more than three years of crippled output because of Western sanctions on its nuclear program. Saudi Arabia and Iran have announced price cuts for their crude as they compete in Europe and Asia. In an interview, Mohsen Ghamsari, the director in charge of marketing oil at the National Iranian Oil Co., said Iran wouldn't provide outright discounts for its crude. But, he said, 'with Saudi Arabia, there is a price competition.' The removal of longtime Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi over the weekend was widely seen as a bid by Prince Mohammed to dig in his heels against the encroachment of Iran on its oil buyers. The prince 'seems fully committed to waging a brutal battle for market access against arch regional rival Iran,' said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC. 'He apparently is not prepared to concede an inch in terms of oil market access,' she added." http://t.uani.com/1T7xbzZ
Human Rights
Reuters: "The husband of a British-Iranian aid worker who has been jailed in Iran for the past five weeks called on Iranian officials to free his wife on Monday. Richard Ratcliffe also said that Iranian officials have confiscated the passport of the couple's 22-month-old daughter, barring the infant from leaving Iran as well. 'The cruelty of the situation seems both outrageous and arbitrary,' Ratcliffe said in a statement on Monday. 'That a young mum and baby can be treated as some national security threat is absurd.' Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is a 37-year-old program coordinator with the Thomson Reuters Foundation, a charity organization that operates separately from Reuters News. Monique Villa, the chief executive of the foundation, called for the situation to be resolved as soon as possible. 'At the Thomson Reuters Foundation she has no professional dealings with Iran whatsoever,' Villa said in a statement. 'In fact, the Thomson Reuters Foundation has no dealings with Iran and does not operate in the country.' Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials detained Zaghari-Ratcliffe on April 3 when she arrived at an airport to fly back to Britain, her husband said. She is now being held in solitary confinement in an unknown location in Kerman Province, 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) south of Tehran. No charges have been filed in the case, but Zaghari-Ratcliffe has told family members in Iran that she was forced to sign a confession under duress, her husband said. He added that Iranian officials have told her relatives in Iran that the investigation relates to an issue of 'national security.'" http://t.uani.com/1T8KpJR
Domestic Politics
Al-Monitor: "With the newly elected Iranian parliamentarians set to take their seats by the end of May, more than 100 members of the current conservative-led parliament took one last shot at President Hassan Rouhani's comprehensive nuclear agreement with the six world powers. In a written warning to the president, the members of parliament said the United States had not fulfilled its promises and asked Rouhani to set a deadline for reconsidering the voluntary steps Iran took in reducing its nuclear program. The statement by the members of parliament said that while Iran has fulfilled all of its commitments in the nuclear agreement, it accused the United States of 'bad promises, sabotage and obstruction' in fulfilling their end of the agreement, specifically in the case of 'removing sanctions, banking transactions and blocking money.' ... With pro-Rouhani candidates soon to have the most seats in the newly elected parliament, the statement does not pose a problem for the comprehensive nuclear deal. However, the statement does reflect that Rouhani continues to face economic challenges, and since the January implementation of the nuclear deal, and despite oil exports having increased, Iranians are still waiting to see the economic results of the deal. Conservative newspapers that were opposed to the nuclear deal have now turned their focus to poor economic news. A May 9 article in Vatan-e-Emrooz reported that despite the lifting of sanctions on Iran and the hopes of the administration, major energy corporations did not attend the recent international oil, gas and petrochemical exhibition in Iran. A front-page May 9 article in Kayhan newspaper was headlined, 'You filled the country with imported goods then speak of production?!' The article was in reference to comments by Ayatollah Abdollah Javadi-Amoli about how smuggled goods was adding to the unemployment problem facing the country. Even Reformist media, which has supported the nuclear deal and Rouhani's other policies, concedes that there are still no tangible effects of the nuclear deal." http://t.uani.com/1sa8vLI
Opinion & Analysis
UANI Advisory Board Member Dennis Ross in Politico: "The United States has significantly more military capability in the Middle East today than Russia-America has 35,000 troops and hundreds of aircraft; the Russians roughly 2,000 troops and, perhaps, 50 aircraft-and yet Middle Eastern leaders are making pilgrimages to Moscow to see Vladimir Putin these days, not rushing to Washington. Two weeks ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to see the Russian president, his second trip to Russia since last fall, and King Salman of Saudi Arabia is planning a trip soon. Egypt's president and other Middle Eastern leaders have also made the trek to see Putin. Why is this happening, and why on my trips to the region am I hearing that Arabs and Israelis have pretty much given up on President Barack Obama? Because perceptions matter more than mere power: The Russians are seen as willing to use power to affect the balance of power in the region, and we are not... But in the Middle East it is Putin's views on the uses of coercion, including force to achieve political objectives, that appears to be the norm, not the exception-and that is true for our friends as well as adversaries. The Saudis acted in Yemen in no small part because they feared the United States would impose no limits on Iranian expansion in the area, and they felt the need to draw their own lines. In the aftermath of the nuclear deal, Iran's behavior in the region has been more aggressive, not less so, with regular Iranian forces joining the Revolutionary Guard now deployed to Syria, wider use of Shiite militias, arms smuggling into Bahrain and the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, and ballistic missile tests... This does not mean that we are weak and Russia is strong. Objectively, Russia is declining economically and low oil prices spell increasing financial troubles-a fact that may explain, at least in part, Putin's desire to play up Russia's role on the world stage and his exercise of power in the Middle East. But Obama's recent trip to Saudi Arabia did not alter the perception of American weakness and our reluctance to affect the balance of power in the region. The Arab Gulf states fear growing Iranian strength more than they fear the Islamic State-and they are convinced that the administration is ready to acquiesce in Iran's pursuit of regional hegemony. Immediately after the president's meeting at the Gulf Cooperation Council summit, Abdulrahman al-Rashed, a journalist very well connected to Saudi leaders, wrote: 'Washington cannot open up doors to Iran allowing it to threaten regional countries ... while asking the afflicted countries to settle silently.'" http://t.uani.com/1QXi98p
WashPost Editorial: "At the heart of the Obama administration's diplomatic engagement with Iran is the notion that the regime is divided among hard-liners who foment its terrorism and regional aggression and more moderate forces who are open to cooperation with the West. The embodiment of the latter is said to be Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, an English-speaking favorite of many Western journalists and, even more so, Secretary of State John F. Kerry. However, if there really is a gulf between Mr. Zarif and the supposed hard-liners, he often does a good job of disguising it. During the 18-month imprisonment of The Post's Jason Rezaian, for example, Mr. Zarif offered public support for the absurd and mendacious claim that Mr. Rezaian was guilty of espionage. The foreign minister suggested Mr. Rezaian had been taken 'advantage' of by an 'overzealous low-level operative' of the U.S. government. More recently, Mr. Zarif was asked to explain why Iran is sponsoring a cartoon festival beginning this Saturday on the theme of the Holocaust. It's the second time the regime has staged such a event; the first, a poisonous orgy of anti-Semitism, was held in 2006 under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - one of the 'hard-liners,' according to Obama administration theory. Mr. Zarif's response to interviewer Robin Wright of the New Yorker was a form of denialism: He claimed the Rouhani administration had nothing to do with the exhibition. The sponsor is a nongovernmental organization 'that is not controlled by the Iranian government,' he said. Moreover, he said, the organization had not needed government permission to stage the event. It was, he said, comparable to the activity in the United States of the Ku Klux Klan. 'Is the government of the United States responsible for the fact the there are racially hateful organizations in the United States?' he demanded. Naturally, it didn't take long for this dissembling to be challenged. What was interesting is that some of the pushback came from Mr. Zarif's own government. A spokesman for the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance confirmed that the ministry supports the exhibition, along with other programs that 'enlighten people about the Holocaust.' A festival official also reported that it was cooperating with the ministry." http://t.uani.com/1QXifwF
Richard Cohen in WashPost: "I've read a fair number of books on foreign policy in recent years, yet the one that has made the greatest impression on me was assigned in the sixth grade. It was Esther Forbes's novel 'Johnny Tremain,' and the lesson I took from it was the very one Johnny himself had to learn the hard way: 'Pride goeth before a fall.' Maybe too late, I recommend the book to President Obama and his foreign policy team. Their pride has already turned to smugness. For evidence, I suggest reading a lengthy interview with Benjamin Rhodes, the president's supremely cocky foreign-policy speechwriter and, by his own admission, master manipulator of the moronic media. The interview, published in the New York Times Magazine, makes for gripping reading. It is not usual, after all, for a senior White House official to crow about how he deceived the press (and the nation) about when negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program actually began. It was not when the more moderate current regime took power, but earlier, under the auspices of more recalcitrant hard-liners. In effect, the White House lied. The lie exposes a truth. Obama wanted the deal (almost) no matter what. He had not been beckoned into the talks by more reasonable Iranians, but had initiated them with the previous regime. In other words, he wanted the talks more than the Iranians did - a negotiating position of great weakness. It explains why nothing in the agreement thwarts Iranian efforts to support terrorism in the Middle East or continue to make mayhem in Iraq. It lowers the odds that Iran will continue to adhere to the agreement. Rhodes, who had scant background in foreign affairs before typing his way into the heart of the president, is now so close to Obama that 'I don't know anymore where I begin and Obama ends.' (One more interview like this and he's going to find out.) Many say Rhodes and the president have a 'mind meld,' and so the reader authoritatively learns of the centrality of Iran to the president's thinking. If Obama can reach some understanding with Iran, he can rid himself of the pesky Middle East and pivot - a word that comes to mind - elsewhere.... No one knows anymore how many have died in Syria's civil war - maybe as many as 400,000. More than 4 million people have fled the country, swamping Europe and coming pretty close to destabilizing governments. The continent has turned sour, inhospitable to migrants yet hospitable to right-wing groups last seen in black-and-white newsreels. Russia now arguably has more influence in the Middle East than the United States does, and Iran and its proxies are everywhere. The United States hasn't pivoted. It's plotzed. If this is success, what constitutes failure? When Obama and his mind-melded sidekick proclaim their own brilliance and the failure of almost everyone else, what are they talking about? Maybe the president could use some obnoxious aides who challenge him and don't come at him, puppy-like. First, though, they could use some humility. In the Times piece, Rhodes is likened to Holden Caulfield. That's not who came to my mind. I thought of Johnny Tremain." http://t.uani.com/1VRLOYM
Eli Lake in Bloomberg: "This is instructive for understanding Obama's signature foreign policy achievement, the nuclear deal with Iran. Rhodes was the architect of selling that deal to Congress and the public. He tells Samuels that the White House 'created an echo chamber.' He had arms control wonks, presented in the press as independent experts, 'saying things that validated what we had given them to say.' On the one hand, Rhodes takes some pride in his work. 'We drove them crazy,' he says of the deal's critics. On the other hand, he says, 'I mean, I'd prefer a sober, reasoned public debate,' after which members of Congress would reflect and take a vote. 'But that's impossible,' he concludes. Rhodes calls the foreign policy establishment 'the Blob.' He doesn't like this Blob. The Blob supported the Iraq War in 2003, supported sanctions on Iran, and opposes accommodation with our adversaries. It's a familiar pose to anyone who read progressive blogs in the 2000s. Bloggers such as Matthew Yglesias (now an editor at Vox) delighted in mocking how 'serious' foreign policy always seemed to mean supporting war. In that free-wheeling era, this pose went unchallenged. But when applied to the Obama White House in 2016, it is piffle. The idea that Rhodes is somehow independent of, or in opposition to, the foreign policy establishment is delusion. He embodies that establishment, particularly when it comes to the Iran deal. Let's start with our Holden Caufield character. When Rhodes decided to give up fiction writing and take up foreign policy, he landed his first job at the Woodrow Wilson Center. He got a job with Lee Hamilton, the former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Hamilton brought Rhodes onto the Iraq Study Group, whose co-chairman was George H.W. Bush's secretary of state and campaign manager, James Baker. In future dictionaries, the entry for 'foreign policy establishment' should include an illustration of Baker and Hamilton enjoying martinis at the Woodrow Wilson Center. The Iraq Study Group was not an independent challenge to the foreign policy establishment. That gets it backwards. Rather, it was the establishment's reaction to the Iraq War. After Sept. 11, George W. Bush and several of his advisers realized that the establishment's vision of stability -- of a Middle East managed by dictatorships -- had led to massive instability and the rise of al-Qaeda. Yet the study group recommended a U.S. withdrawal and cooperation with Iraq's neighbors -- who were supporting various terrorists and ethnic cleansers in Iraq at the time -- to try to reach the peace. If that approach sounds familiar, it should. This is pretty much what Obama today is trying today in Syria. It is also the impulse that led to Obama's bargain with Iran. Rhodes has portrayed the Iran deal as a great accomplishment over the Blob, which was incapable of evaluating it on its merits. So he chose to sell the deal as a rare opportunity that presented itself after Iran's relatively moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, came to power in 2013. (Even though, as Samuels makes clear, Obama had made an offer to the Iranians in 2012 before Rouhani was elected.) Rhodes and his echo chamber would have you believe that striking a deal with Iran was a bold challenge to the foreign policy establishment. But again, he has this backward. Every president since Ronald Reagan has reached out to Iran in search of moderates. Even George W. Bush reluctantly authorized emissaries to explore negotiations with the Tehran regime, before and during the Iraq War. Specifically, the idea of a reset in relations with Iran after Sept. 11 was the brainchild of something known as the Iran Project. As Peter Waldman of Bloomberg News reported in July, the Iran Project was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers foundation. Its participants included: Jessica Mathews, the former president of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace; Tom Pickering, a vice president Boeing and former undersecretary of state for political affairs; and Robert Silvers, the editor of the New York Review of Books. Does Rhodes think these people are not part of his establishment Blob?" http://t.uani.com/1T3mZTG
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Tue, 05/10/2016 - 14:41