Eye on Iran: Don't Forget Iran Oil Risk, RBC Warns
TOP STORIES
Don't Forget Iran Oil Risk, RBC Warns | Barron's
While the news trumpeted this week is all about the departure of U.S. security advisor Michael Flynn over his entanglement with Russia,Iran and its potential impact on oil prices shouldn't get short shrift, RBC Capital Markets strategists say. RBC's Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy, with commodity strategists Michael Tran and Christopher Louney, writes:
"While much of the media's attention has focused on the prospects for the Middle East peace process, Iran was also on the agenda when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Donald Trump this week at the White House. The Israeli position on Iran has seemingly evolved from calling for an outright rejection of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to seeking stricter policing of the [nuclear] agreement (which could include calls for greater access for inspectors to sensitive military sites) and an increase in sanctions for non-nuclear activities (i.e. ballistic missile tests or providing arms to the Houthi rebels in Yemen). Such a tactical shift could gain significant traction in Washington where there seems to be little appetite for ripping up the agreement. With the sudden departure of national security advisor Michael Flynn, the White House has lost one of the most hawkish voices on Iran and one of the most public proponents of a more confrontational approach. Flynn's departure could yield a more temperate stance towards Iran, especially if his replacement hails from the traditional foreign policy establishment. Yet, we caution that any effort to tighten the enforcement of the nuclear deal or alter its terms by eliminating the sunset provisions will likely be met with stiff resistance in Iran... we continue to see significant risks to the agreement in 2017.
Trump Promises Netanyahu that Iran Will Never Get Nuclear Bomb | AFP
President Donald Trump hailed the United States' "unbreakable" bond with Israel on Wednesday and promised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran would never be permitted to build a nuclear weapon... "With this visit the United States, again, reaffirms our unbreakable bond with our cherished ally, Israel," Trump said. "The security challenges faced by Israel are enormous, including the threat of Iran's nuclear ambitions, which I've talked a lot about. One of the worst deals I've ever seen is the Iran deal. My administration has already imposed new sanctions on Iran, and I will do more to prevent Iran from ever developing-I mean ever-a nuclear weapon."
Iran Needs Billions to Upgrade Gas Fields, But Will Investors Invest? | VOA
Iran sits on what are thought to be the world's largest gas reserves, yet can barely supply its own domestic demand. Since the United Nations-backed deal over Tehran's nuclear program spurred the lifting of international sanctions, the country has strived to attract foreign investment in developing oil fields and upgrading its aging infrastructure. The Ministry of Petroleum helped to convene the CWC Iran Gas Conference this week in Frankfurt, Germany, to bring together government figures and private investors. Industry estimates suggest Iran needs to invest $100 billion in order to fully exploit the reserves. The nuclear agreement removed some sanctions on Iran, but mainly in Europe. It remains extremely difficult for American companies to do business, according to Reiner Jahn, vice president of the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce and expert on financing deals with Iran. "Unless it's licensed by OFAC, the U.S. sanctions authority, there is no way for an American to negotiate any transaction with an Iranian," he said. So Iran is looking elsewhere. Indian demand for gas is forecast to grow rapidly, and Tehran sees it as a key market. The private consortium South Asia Gas Enterprise, or SAGE, has advanced plans for the world's deepest underwater pipeline connecting the two countries... U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the nuclear deal, and he has imposed new sanctions on Iran following a recent missile test. History shows that the United States could still intervene to disrupt foreign investment, says Jahn. "The U.S. invented secondary sanctions, where they sanction European companies that acted in complete accordance with EU law, but not in accordance with U.S. law. Therefore. I think they have an impact in our market," he said... The nuclear deal may have lifted some restrictions, but analysts say Trump has introduced new uncertainty just as foreign investment in Iran starts to build.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
Tillerson Denies Suggesting He Wants to Scrap Iran Nuclear Deal
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Thursday he did not suggest to French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault that Washington planned to scrap the Iranian nuclear agreement. "I didn't leave any such impression," Tillerson told reporters before a meeting with the Argentinian foreign minister, when asked about a report which cited Ayrault as saying the French had the impression that Washington wanted to get rid of the deal.
France says U.S. position on Middle East peace 'confused and worrying' | Reuters
France considers the U.S. position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict "confused and worrying", its foreign minister said on Thursday, reacting to U.S. President Trump's dropping of the America's commitment to a two-state solution... Having just returned from Tehran, Ayrault said he was concerned by the new administration's calls to review from scratch the agreement between major powers and Iran over its nuclear program. "The deal must be completely respected by Iran, but it is out of the question to open up a new construction site for an agreement that was reached in difficulty. I sense that there was a difference of opinion or at least question marks," he said. He said the real debate on Iran now was not the nuclear deal, but its "interference" in the region, especially Syria and Iraq.
Iran Nuclear Deal Could Unravel with Europe's Help, Analyst Says | Fox News
Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies has been intimately involved with the ins and outs of the landmark nuclear deal with Iran... "I think it's clear that the nuclear deal is in jeopardy," he tells Fox News, but notes that Iran does not want to be the one to break that deal. "So there will probably be a tit for tat, and Iran will face additional pressure, not getting the economic benefits it wanted. It will be testing more missiles and so forth and within a year the deal will be under very severe pressure." Fitzpatrick suggests that if the deal were to unravel, and Iran were to resume the level enrichment that would get it within a couple months of being able to produce highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon, there would be serious talk again about the prospect of a military strike. While conventional wisdom has been that since several states are party to the deal, the United States alone couldn't undo it, Fitzpatrick believes Washington could in fact cause a de facto dismantling of the accord, by effectively keeping European countries to refrain from doing business with the Islamic Republic... Fitzpatrick is concerned about the U.S. visa ban, currently suspended, on seven countries, which includes Iran. He says until now, those with pro-U.S. sentiments in Iran could say that U.S. punitive actions vis-a-vis the Islamic Republic were directed at Iranian government officials and actions, "but a visa ban that keeps the entire nation of Iran from entering the U.S. attacks everybody."
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Middle East Experts: Trump's Promise to Israel That Iran Won't Be Allowed to Get 'Nuclear Weapons Capability' Could Indicate Shift in US Policy | Algemeiner
The Trump administration's promise to Israel this week that Iran will not be allowed to get "nuclear weapons capability" could indicate a US policy shift vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic, two Middle East experts assessed on Thursday... David Makovsky - director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank's Project on the Middle East Peace Process - said the language of the statement "might be signaling something." "Is he [Trump] saying that the United States will not allow Iran to get highly-enriched uranium that's weapons-grade uranium?" Makovsky stated. "It would be interesting to ask either at the White House or the Pentagon about the meaning of the phrase that they use because every word here is pregnant with meaning and the past administration did not want to use that word 'capability.' They said, you know, 'they will not get a nuclear bomb, period.'"
Top Trump Aide: Despite Resignation of National Security Adviser, Administration Committed to Flynn's Staunch Stance on Iran | Algemeiner
A top aide to US President Donald Trump told The Algemeiner on Thursday that despite the resignation this week of General Michael Flynn as national security adviser, Washington remains committed to his staunch positions on Iran. "Flynn's statements on the Islamic Republic reflect the new administration's stance, as the president has been very clear," said Deputy Assistant to the President Sebastian Gorka... Gorka said, "We are reassessing US policy to the regime in Iran and are committed to not facilitating the mullahs in their destabilization of the whole region as the Obama White House did, especially through the disastrous JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)," otherwise known as the nuclear deal... Asked whether Netanyahu's input had an effect on Trump's statement about not allowing Iran to achieve "nuclear capability" - rather than merely preventing it from building a nuclear weapon - Gorka said, "The key is that this administration has been adamant that it will treat friends as friends. And you listen to your friends' concerns." Gorka went on to explain that the opposite messages being conveyed to Israel and Iran from the White House are in keeping with a Marine Corps motto - which, he said, has been informally adopted by the Trump administration - "No better friend, no worse enemy."
Netanyahu, Ryan Determined to 'Hold Iran Accountable for Its Actions' | Times of Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held talks with senior congressional figures on a range of Middle East security issues Wednesday, hours after meeting with US President Donald Trump. Netanyahu met with Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, House Speaker Paul Ryan, House majority leader Kevin McCarthy, House minority leader Nancy Pelosi and House minority whip Steny Hoyer in a series of sit-downs... In a statement, Ryan said the two had spoken about "the need to hold Iran accountable for its actions, bolster Israel's qualitative military edge, and push back against international efforts to delegitimize the Jewish state."
American Wrestlers in Iran Welcomed with Roses and Selfies | Washington Post
The Americans were greeted in Iran with red roses, smiling fans and a barrage of selfies. No diplomatic crisis here. But that wasn't the case just two weeks ago. Back then - in the wake of President Trump's now-frozen travel ban - it didn't look like a group of U.S. wrestlers would be allowed to compete in one of the sport's most prestigious events. Now many are calling it a triumph of sports over politics.
BUSINESS RISK
Resumption of Iranian Oil Exports Off to Slow Start
In several respects, the NITC's resumption of oil deliveries to Europe is a big step forward for Tehran and a sign that the nuclear deal is working toward ending Iran's isolation. For instance, Iran can now finally utilize its own tankers... Apart from the cost dimension - using its own tankers will likely be cheaper for Iran than needing to hire probably reluctant foreign services - there is also a political dimension. Wary of engaging with Tehran even as the nuclear-related sanctions are lifted, international shipping lines as well as their insurers might take an even more cautious stance toward the country in light of potential new US sanctions targeting international firms engaged with Iran... Tehran is certainly more flexible and secure in terms of ensuring steady deliveries using its own ships. By and large, however, the step does little to change the outlook for Iran's energy industry. In the year since the January 2016 implementation of the nuclear deal, Iran has already achieved the maximum of what was possible in the short term. The country has steadily moved back to its pre-sanctions position in terms of crude oil production and exports, with output reaching 3.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) by the end of 2016 and exports of crude and condensate peaking at 2.6 mbpd in September - though some sources put it as high as 2.8 mbpd. All this happened before the first Iranian oil tanker reached Europe. Actually, Iranian oil exports to Europe began rising long before the NITC's resumption of deliveries to the EU. Iran's ability to increase oil production and exports beyond current levels does not hinge on the use of its own tankers. A series of other obstacles will need to be overcome. Iran will need to increase its production capacity beyond the current ceiling of around 4 mbpd. To this end, Tehran needs to attract investment and technology from abroad. According to Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh, the Iranian energy industry needs some $100 billion in foreign capital. At this point, however, it is uncertain whether and how the administration of President Hassan Rouhani will succeed in luring international energy companies to the country. Domestically, in order to move forward with the long-delayed new petroleum law aimed at attracting foreign investment and technology - the Iran Petroleum Contract - the Rouhani administration will need to strike a balance. During the sanctions years, companies affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other entities linked to the conservative camp moved into Iran's energy industry. Considering their political influence within the Islamic Republic, their consent and participation in the development of the Iranian energy industry will be necessary for the law to proceed. Tellingly, the first and thus far only such contract has been awarded to an entity overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Internationally, Iran must convince foreign companies to engage in its energy sector by concluding binding contracts rather than what has largely been offered thus far: non-binding memoranda of understanding. This change has become more difficult as the Trump administration has increased harsh rhetoric toward Iran and, within weeks of taking office, already imposed new sanctions...
Europe's Steel Industry Adds Iranian Imports to List of Threats | Reuters
Iranian steel imports have become the latest threat to European steelmakers, their trade group said on Thursday, after imports from Iran rose by nearly eight times between 2013 and 2016. Steel lobby group Eurofer said on Thursday that Iranian exports to Europe had leapt to just over 1 million tonnes annually, putting the country just behind India at 1.9 million tonnes, while China shipped 5.7 million tonnes in 2016. Iran has sought to boost its steel sector, with help from foreign partners, as it targeted economic expansion following the 2015 deal to curb Iran's nuclear programme in return for an easing of sanctions. But Tehran has said it is considering export duties on iron ore, as India has done, which would increase the availability of cheap raw materials for its own steelmakers. Eurofer, which represents an industry that has to import its iron ore, says that amounts to protectionism. .. The EU is investigating alleged dumping of hot-rolled steel by producers in Serbia and Iran as well as Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Iran Reaches Lease Financing Deal For 77 Boeing, Airbus Planes | Forbes
Tehran has reached a deal with an international aircraft leasing company to finance the acquisition of 77 planes from Boeing and Airbus, according to local media reports. Details of the deal remain opaque at this stage and it is not clear who it has been signed with or when it will come into force. However, it is likely to be just the first of several large contracts in the coming weeks and months... Irish leasing companies appear to be in a strong position to get involved in any contracts being negotiated. Ireland is one of the world's leading locations for aircraft leasing companies and, on February 11, the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran (CAOI) signed a cooperation agreement with the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA), covering aircraft leasing, flight supervision and maintenance and repair among other areas... Iran Aseman Airlines is set to be one of the first to take advantage of that agreement. It is planning to lease seven Airbus A320neo aircraft and "the terms of this contract [with the IAA] will apply as soon as these aircrafts land in Iran after being registered in Ireland," according to the CAOI. Among the Irish leasing companies linked to possible Iranian deals has been Avalon, which is owned by China's Bohai Leasing. The Irish Times reported on February 11 that Avalon's chief commercial officer John Higgins had spoken about a recent trip to Iran when addressing an event held by the Ireland China Business Association a day earlier.
Iran Gets Ready for Internet of Things Launch | AFP
Intelligent transportation and gas meters you can read from your phone: The Internet of Things is heading for Iran thanks to a deal announced Thursday. Internet of Things applications allow users to monitor and control everything from fridges to city-wide metro systems by connecting remote sensors with computers, mobile phones and smart watches. French startup Sigfox, which runs a wireless IoT network connecting such devices, signed the deal with local internet provider Parsnet to deploy its services in Iran by June 2017, Parsnet said in a statement... Parsnet's parent company, ParsOnline, is one of Iran's biggest internet providers.
Belarus purchases first ever oil cargo from Iran | Press TV (Iran)
Reuters reported that Belarus's Bel Oil had purchased 80,000 tons - equal to 600,000 barrels - of Iranian Light and Heavy crude oil from National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for loading in February. Bel Oil is expected to ship the Iranian crude oil to either the Black Sea port of Odessa or the Baltic port of Ventspils for rail transportation to Belarus, the report added. The logistics for this are yet to be agreed... Belarus' reported purchase of oil from Iran comes as the country is trying to look for alternative crude oil supplies after Russia cut exports to the country in 2016 over a gas price row between the two countries.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Iran Says Israel, Not Tehran, Biggest Threat to Global Security-Tasnim | Reuters
Iran on Thursday rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's statement that its nuclear ambitions were a major security challenge and said its arch foe Israel was the biggest threat to global peace.
Trump Fears May Thaw Iran, Gulf Relations: Analysts | AFP
Shared fears over US President Donald Trump's policies could bring Iran and Gulf Arab countries closer together, analysts said after a fence-mending regional tour by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani... Kuwait, which unlike many of its neighbours has maintained relations with Tehran, last month launched a dialogue with the Islamic republic to normalise Iran-Gulf ties. Iran also has good relations with Oman where Rouhani was warmly welcomed by Sultan Qaboos, whose country has played a role in the past as a key mediator between the Islamic republic and the West... But prominent Kuwaiti political analyst Sami al-Nasef said the success of Tehran's initiative depended "on Iran's actions rather than slogans." "Iran is now interfering in Iraq, Syria and Yemen... and is backing (Shiite) militias in several countries in the region," he told AFP.
Cuba, Iran Strengthen Ties as Trump Menace Threatens Both | TeleSur (Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, etc.)
As the presidency of Donald Trump threatens to renew hostilities against both countries, Iran and Cuba signed 12 new cooperation agreements Thursday as the Intergovernmental Commission comes to a close in Havana. The agreements and memorandums of understanding cover a broad range of fields from agriculture, health, biotechnology and higher education... Under the bilateral pacts, Cuban Institute of Radio and Television and Iranian network HispanTV will enter into a memorandum of understanding as the two countries look to strengthen economic and commercial cooperation.
EXTREMISM
Think Tank: Iran Continues to Call for Israel's Destruction, Despite Nuclear Deal | JNS
Iran's leadership has continued to call for Israel's destruction since the nuclear deal with world powers was forged in July 2015, according to a new report published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA). "There is absolutely no indication of one iota of moderation by the Iranian elite in their hostile intentions toward Israel since the conclusion of the Iran nuclear agreement. Iranian policy in this regard is driven by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps," said former Israeli Foreign Ministry Director-General Dore Gold, who heads the JCPA.
TERRORISM
With a New Leader, Where is Hamas' Relationship with Iran Heading? | Al Arabiya
Palestinian Islamist group Hamas' ties with Iran is back under the spotlight following the election of Yahya Sinwar, one of its hardline figures, as its new leader in Gaza Strip. Analysts have raised questions about the group's approach over the coming years and how it will influence its affiliation to the Arab and Islamic world. Hamas has repeatedly described its relationship with Iran as 'concrete'... However, the organization's ties with Iran suffered a setback over the Syrian war in 2011 as a result of its support of the Syrian opposition and rejection of Iranian meddling in the civil war... The latest shift is the election of Sinwar, an initiator of the Hamas military wing, and subsequently, a pro-Hezbollah and Iran figure. Ahead of Sinwar's elections, [Hamas foreign relations chief] Osama Hamadan's visit to Tehran where he held meetings with top Iranian officials,... to pay condolences over the death of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, restored the warmth between Iran and Hamas. Several Arab and Islamic countries, sidetracked by the aggressive Iranian posture in the region, are deeply distressed over the Iran-Hamas rapprochement being an impediment to the Arab-Turkish axis to counter Tehran's hegemonic regional ambitions.
IRAQ CRISIS
Iran Signs Deal to Build "Industrial Townships" in Iraq | Global Construction Review
Iran has agreed to design and build industrial townships in a number of provinces in Iraq. The deal will help unlock investment from within the war-torn country, Iran's industry minister, Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh, said during a visit to Baghdad on 14 February, reports Iran's Fars news agency. The minister said Iran would begin with several trial projects, for which it would also supply industrial equipment and investment.
SAUDI-IRAN TENSIONS
Saudi Arabia on Offensive with Attack-Minded Military Splurge | Bloomberg
Saudi Arabia and other Western-backed Mideast states have switched the focus of their military spending to more-offensive programs as tensions with Iran ratchet up, according to a study by IHS Jane's. Purchases of items intended to boost the attacking capabilities of warplanes, such as precision air-to-ground missiles, advanced guidance systems and air-to-air refueling gear that extends the duration of flights, are leading an increase in defense outlay, with budgets set to swell by up to 3 percent annually from 2018, the defense and security specialist said... Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will "start to spend heavily" over the next two years as the potential threat from Iran increases, with the former set to return to budget growth this year, IHS projects.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Mother Jailed in Iran is Denied Care for Injured Neck | Times of London
A British mother jailed in Iran has been denied urgent treatment for a prison neck injury that has left her unable to lift her arms or carry her child. It is the latest act of cruelty inflicted on Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who has been held in Evin prison, Tehran, since April last year on spying charges... Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe, 38, who holds British and Iranian nationality, is likely to have suffered the injury during eight months in solitary confinement cells where inmates must sleep on blankets spread on the floor, according to her husband, Richard. Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a project manager for Thomson Reuters Foundation, was arrested by Iranian Revolutionary Guards last April as she attempted to board a plane home from a holiday with her parents in Tehran. She was sentenced to a five-year prison term in September on spying charges. Last month the judiciary upheld the verdict of "disrupting national security" and added two new charges: knowingly marrying a British spy and recruiting for BBC Persian in 2009... Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe is one of six dual nationals known to have been detained in Iran since 2015, all on security-related charges.
Campaigners urge Iran to free mother of shot protester | Guardian
Human rights campaigners have accused Iran of silencing the mother of a protester who was killed in post-election unrest in 2009. Shahnaz Akmali's son, Moustafa Karimbeigi, was shot dead in December 2009 during protests after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a second term in office. Akmali was arrested last month after intelligence officials raided her workplace and her house in Tehran. Officials have not explained the reasons for her arrest. Akmali became politically active after her son's killing, visiting families of other victims to show her solidarity. Recently she had campaigned for the release of Arash Sadeghi, a student activist serving a 19-year jail sentence, who was on hunger strike for several months until January. Before her arrest, Akmali had complained about pressure on her and her family, particularly her daughter. "Kill me too, kill my daughter, but I will not keep quiet and will follow my son's path," she said in a video... Akmali said in the video that the authorities had threatened to kill her daughter if she did not stop advocating for the plight of other families.
Women in Iran Dress As Men in Bid to Watch Soccer Game | USA Today
In Iran, soccer stadiums are a male-only affair: Women are banned from attending games. Not all female sports fans are so easily dissuaded, however. On Sunday, eight women found their own way to try to watch a match at Tehran's Azadi Stadium. All eight are reported to have dressed as men, with closely cropped hair and caps to hide their faces. Not well enough, apparently - according to the Tasnim News Agency, security guards spotted them as they entered and blocked them from the stadium... This is not the first time that women have smuggled themselves into Iranian soccer stadiums. Several women have filmed themselves attending matches in disguise, and videos of them doing so have gone viral. Female spectators are also banned from other sports. In 2015, Ghoncheh Ghavami, a British-Iranian citizen, was sentenced to a year in jail after she attempted to watch a men's volleyball match. She had attended the match carrying a banner protesting the rules.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iran's Rouhani under Fire As Tensions with U.S. Rise | Washington Post
A burgeoning crisis between Iran and the United States has threatened to undermine the pragmatic Rouhani, who was elected four years ago on promises to end the country's isolation from the West. But now, amid new tensions with the Trump administration, Rouhani's pro-dialogue approach is under attack. The shift - from detente with the Obama administration to open hostility with the White House under Trump - has left Rouhani particularly vulnerable as he gears up for a presidential vote in May... Indeed, the trouble for Rouhani started when Iranians, sick of a sluggish economy... Since then, some restrictions have been lifted. But others, such as those targeting Iran's alleged financial support of terrorist groups, remain in place, sanctions experts say. Foreign banks have also continued to avoid transactions with Iran, where corruption and money laundering are rife, said Richard Nephew, former principal deputy coordinator for sanctions policy at the State Department. Iran also resumed selling oil on the international market, but low prices stunted what many Iranians hoped would have been a swift economic recovery. "Residual sanctions, particularly those associated with Iran's support for terrorism, continue to hamper [Iran's] economic performance, but so, too, did Iran's poor business climate and low oil prices," said Nephew, who also served as Iran director on the National Security Council under President Obama. As a result, "the majority of people are not satisfied with the economy," said Ali Omidi, professor of international relations at the University of Isfahan. Unemployment reached 12.7 percent in the second quarter of 2016 - up from 10.9 percent the year before - according to the latest data available from Iran's central bank, and oil and non-oil-sector growth remained at 3 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.
Ahwaz's Environmental Woes at the Epicenter of Crisis in Iran | Al Arabiya
Over recent days, Iran has been rocked by massive protests in its southwestern Arab-majority Khuzestan province as power stations have failed and water supplies have been cut off. Dust storms and poor weather in this region, where temperatures can easily exceed 50 Celsius, are being blamed for the breakdown in utilities. However, the underlying environmental crisis that has prompted the unrest is a greater threat to Iran's existence than any internal or external enemy. If Tehran does not listen to the protesters' demands, it could bring about the death of Iran through hunger and civil war. Thousands joined protests in Ahwaz, demanding action to resolve an escalating environmental crisis caused by the damming of the region's rivers, the desertification of wetlands and industrial pollution... The crisis is fuelling regional resentment in this ethnic Arab region against the central government that is shared not only by protesters but also many local politicians and officials. Many are prepared to go on the record to condemn the government's atrocious environmental record... The death of Khuzestan would precipitate the death of Iran. Without sufficient downstream water, the province's agricultural sector will collapse with dire national and international consequences. Khuzestan province is Iran's biggest source of food crops. It is the leading producer of wheat (1.1 mln tonnes per annum) and the second biggest producer of maize (400,000 tonnes) and rice (300,000 tonnes). Over 40 percent of Iran's sugar production, a vital cash crop, comes from the province, mostly from sugarcane... Iran's leading specialist on desertification, Prof. Parviz Kordavani, warned last week that Iran has depleted 70 percent of its ground water. He said that the provincial competition for water will lead to domestic conflict within five years... the price would be massive. Environmental collapse would carry with it the prospect of conflict on a par with Syria's civil war, which itself had environmental causes. Millions of Iranian environmental refugees would pour over its borders, seeking food that is unavailable in their parched homeland.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
No More Free Passes for Iran | U.S. Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA) in Fox News
General Soleimani... is responsible for the death of nearly 500 Americans as a consequence of him heading up the Quds Forces... this is the organization that's responsible for assassinations outside Iran. He was just caught in Moscow violating the existing sanctions that we have on his travel... [W]e now see that not only are they developing...ballistic missiles, but they're in consultation [with Russia] obviously for additional weapons of war... And that is what has to change... [W]e've lost a lot of ground. We've had billions transferred in wealth to Iran, some of it cash and gold on pallets... they don't take us seriously, and that's why they're developing these new ICBMs. Now is the time for the administration to move on establishing and pushing the new sanctions, not allowing companies to do business with Iran.
Opening Statement for Hearing "Iran on Notice": U.S. Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA) in House Foreign Affairs Committee
Sanctions can be imposed even while adhering to and strictly enforcing the nuclear agreement - as flawed as it is... Iran's continuing intercontinental ballistic missile program - whose only purpose is to carry a nuclear warhead, must be front and center. This month's designations are a good start. But more can be done to find and target the banks and companies that are supplying this dangerous program aimed at us. It also means more extraditions, prosecutions, and indictments of sanctions violators. This proactive approach also means stepping up our defenses and those of our regional partners. Second, the Administration shouldn't be shy about tackling Iran's terror arm, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps... Around the region, the Administration can attack Iran's proxy Hezbollah thanks to a new law advanced by this Committee. And increased interdiction of Iranian arms shipments to the revolutionary Houthis in Yemen, clearer rules of engagement for U.S. forces in the Gulf, and better defense cooperation with our partners on the frontlines of the Iranian threat is all needed. Of course Iran will howl and threaten at each step of the way. However, the nuclear agreement does not leave us defenseless against Tehran's threatening behavior. Careful coordination with allies is a must. And all along we should be clear that the choice is with Iran to end its threatening, destabilizing behavior.
Opening Statement for Hearing "Iran on Notice": U.S. Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY) in House Foreign Affairs Committee
The difference between the Trump Administration's response and the Obama Administration's response was a two-word phrase: "on notice." So what does it mean exactly to put 'Iran on notice?' How will the Administration respond if Iran tests the President again? Does the Administration have a plan?... I hope that the Administration will make it clear what their plan is on Iran because surely, Iran will continue its provocative behavior. We cannot afford a half-baked or reckless foreign policy. Rash decisions concerning America's role in the world could have serious consequences for American personnel and interests... Additionally, if this turns out to be an empty threat, then this Administration will not have done its job. We have to really confront the Iranian threat and let them know that we're serious about it, that we mean business. I don't trust the Iranian government. I didn't vote for the Iranian deal. But the Iranian deal is now in place, and I think we have to ensure that Iran lives up to every bit of its responsibility under that deal... We've got to make sure that Iran understands that there are severe consequences if they continue on their ways...
How Trump Can Win in Iran | Tzvi Kahn in Foreign Affairs
The ongoing debate surrounding Trump's Iran policy-should the president enforce the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, tear it up, or renegotiate it?-poses the wrong question and, in so doing, misconstrues the challenge facing Washington. For Tehran, the JCPOA now functions as an instrument of leverage that Tehran can rely upon to pursue its broader regional ambitions. By repeatedly threatening to abandon the accord if Washington reimposes sanctions for any reason, Tehran deterred the administration of former President Barack Obama from enacting meaningful economic penalties for the regime's regional aggression, human rights abuses, ballistic missile tests, and, most troubling, violations of the JCPOA. Trump must seek to reverse this dynamic by raising the costs for Tehran's misbehavior so dramatically that it is Iran, rather than the United States, that will seek a new deal aimed at relieving those costs. Washington can then use its regained leverage to negotiate new terms more conducive to its interests. Put differently, the best way to advance the JCPOA's objective of nonproliferation may lie in shifting the debate over its survival from Washington to Tehran... [A]ny strategy should focus on the restoration of U.S. deterrence. Instead of abrogating the JCPOA, Trump should strictly enforce it by insisting on greater transparency and accountability in its implementation. At the same time, he should make clear, in both word and deed, that Washington will no longer allow the accord to impose a straitjacket on broader U.S. policy in the Middle East. By exacting robust penalties on Iran for the full range of its transgressions, the United States should aim to persuade Tehran that a renegotiation of the JCPOA would advance its own self-interest.
Hypocrisy: Sweden to Present U.N. Resolution on Iran's Human Rights Record | UN Watch
Sweden has just announced that it will introduce a U.N. resolution on Iran's human rights record-at the same time as its leaders are being ridiculed worldwide for selling out Iranian women's rights in their visit this week to Tehran. UN Watch, a non-governmental human rights NGO in Geneva, slammed Sweden's self-declared "first feminist government in the world" for having sacrificed its principles and betrayed the rights of Iranian women as trade minister Ann Linde and other female members walked before Iranian President Rouhani on Saturday wearing Hijabs, Chadors, and long coats indoors, all in deference to Iran's oppressive and unjust forced Hijab law - despite Stockholm's promise to promote "a gender equality perspective" internationally, and to adopt a "feminist foreign policy" in which "equality between women and men is a fundamental aim." In doing so, Sweden's female leaders ignored the recent appeal by Iranian women's right activist Masih Alinejad who urged Europeans female politicians "to stand for their own dignity" and to refuse to kowtow to the compulsory Hijab while visiting Iran.
Iran: Slain Protester's Mother Arrested | Human Rights Watch
The Iranian authorities have arrested and detained the mother of one of the victims of the government's violent crackdown on protests in 2009, Human Rights Watch said today. The authorities should immediately release Shahnaz Karimbeigi, who became an activist after her son was killed and has been in Evin prison since January 25, 2017, or promptly bring recognizable criminal charges against her and guarantee her a fair trial. Karimbeigi's 26-year-old son, Mostafa, was one of several protesters who were shot and killed during protests on December 27, 2009, linked to the disputed 2009 presidential election.
Pitting Russia against Iran in Syria? Get Over It | Frederick W. Kagan in Fox News
Faced with the Syrian debacle, Trump administration officials, among others, claim that the U.S. can exploit the weakness of the growing strategic coalition between Russia and Iran, ultimately using Russia to contain Iran in Syria and throughout the Middle East. The Obama administration had this idea too, and it remains wrong. Circumstances could arise that might split the partners, but American outreach to Moscow won't do it. A bigger question for the U.S. right now is whether we can prevent other nations vital to our interests from shifting toward the new Russian-Iranian orbit... Thinking too much about [Russo-Iranian] historical disagreements, however, obscures the deep commonality of aims shared by Moscow and Tehran--driving the U.S. from the Middle East being the chief of these common goals. Russia and Iran also share allies and goals around their periphery... Only extreme circumstances will split the Russo-Iranian coalition in Syria-if the Assad regime faces defeat, or the pro-regime coalition succeeds enough that it can move on to consider its next goals. Neither is likely... Russia needs Iran in Syria at least as badly as Iran needs Russia.
Iranian Concepts of Warfare: Understanding Tehran's Evolving Military Doctrines | J. Matthew McInnis for American Enterprise Institute
The year 2016 appears to be an inflection point at which Iran recognized its need to move toward a more conventionally offensive and expansionist concept of warfare. This could include foreign bases and air, land, and sea power projection capabilities... Despite this shift, Iran still primarily focuses military doctrine on defense, deterrence, and asymmetric warfare because they remain both hindered by weak offensive military capability and driven by high perceptions of threat from the US and regional adversaries... New resources from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and future United Nations weapons sanctions relaxation may encourage further expansion into conventional offensive capabilities. However, threat perceptions, particularly from potential clashes with regional rivals or direct conflict with the US, will be the more dominant factor in the extent to which Iran reorients toward offensive warfare.
Trump Team and the Iran Challenge | Pierre Ghanem in Al Arabiya
It is not important that Michael Flynn, the National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump, has resigned... Trump has surrounded himself with a group of military men who are hostile to Iran and who believe that radical Islam threatens the security of the US. Retired Lieutenant General Micheal Flynn was only one of these men... Keith Kellogg, who is now serving as the Acting National Security Advisor, worked in Baghdad in 2003 and was a witness to Iranian infiltration and escalation of al-Qaeda violence against American troops. On Tuesday, the Department of Defense announced sending General Joseph Rank, the American military attaché in the UAE, to head the Middle East team in the National Security Council (NSC). Practically, he is in charge of coordinating and planning Trump's policies toward the region. I don't remember that former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama hired generals in charge of the Middle East affairs in the NSC. The current Secretary of Defense is James Mattis. He too served in Iraq and he was the commander of the Central Command when shelling Iran was an option... Truth also is that Trump chose these military men because he believes that Iran poses a security threat and intervenes in the region's affairs and that militias affiliated with it threaten the stability and safety of international navigation. Trump is the one who believes that radical Islam poses a threat to US security.
The Consequences of Shock and Awe and Blitzing Iran | Tony Duheaume in Al Arabiya
[I]t does seem that with Iran constantly calling for the destruction of Israel, Netanyahu could well turn out to be the wild card on this issue. But should such an attack eventually take place, the US would be best placed to destroy Iran's underground facilities using the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a "bunker buster" bomb packed with around 6,000 pounds of explosives, which would have to be dropped from B-2 stealth bombers... In the worst case scenario of bombing a nuclear facility, civilian casualties, property damage, and radiation exposure would be catastrophic. Some experts suggest that with a number of Iran's nuclear facilities located near heavily populated areas, toxic plumes would spread across city centres within a short time, killing as many as 70,000 and exposing around 300,000 to radioactive fallout... But should the regime eventually gain a nuclear weapon, the US or Israel might feel that desperate measures have to be taken, and then the genie would be out of the bottle. Because as far as the continuance of Iran's nuclear program is concerned, in the worst case scenario, if the regime was to produce a nuclear weapon, the ruling mullahs could use it as a big stick to blackmail its neighbours, which would also embolden Iran's proxies Hezbollah and Hamas to strike hard against targets in the US and Israel, given confidence by the thought that their paymasters had gone nuclear. Then buoyed up by the possession of such weapons, the Iranian regime might well decide to disrupt the world's oil supplies, by either attacking shipping or mining the Hormuz Straits. Then at the end of it all, fearing threats from their arch enemy, both Saudi Arabia and Turkey were certain to join the scramble for nuclear weapons. But even more alarming, there was the added fear that the Iranian mullahs might even supply these weapons to terror groups, should they eventually be attacked, and end up with their backs against the wall, or in the event of regime collapse, set off Armageddon. So whatever the risk is for stopping it, Iran cannot be allowed to get its hands on nuclear weapons, and has to be stopped one way or another.
uaniadmin
Fri, 02/17/2017 - 19:12