2017-01-03



The Coming War on China - a film by John Pilger



BBC Documentary China vs USA - Empires at war

John Pilger: 'Nuclear war is no longer unthinkable'



Speaking in the documentary, James Bradley, author of The China Mirage, said: "If you were in Beijing and standing on the tallest building and looking out over the Pacific Ocean, you would see American warships.

"You would see the island of Guam is about the sink because there are so many missiles pointed at China. "You would look at Korea and see American armaments pointing at China, you see Japan which is basically a glove over the American fist.

"I think if I was Chinese I would have a little to worry about with American aggressiveness."

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COMING WAR ON CHINA

John Pilger's new film will be shown on ITV on December 6

The majority of the US navy has been deployed to Asia and the Pacific, Pilger claims in the documentary – with the massive military build-up known in Washington as the "Pivot to Asia".

China's economy is continuing to expand and looks to threaten US dominance on the global scene – with confrontations between the powers brewing ever since the Cold War.

Earlier this year, the US deployed nuclear capable bombers to its military base in Guam as the threat of World War 3 boiled through the South China Sea.

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War over Taiwan undesirable, but not unthinkable

Chinese and Western security analysts tasked with imagining a Taiwan conflict generally start with a disclaimer — a war pitting the United States and China is unpredictable and a pretty bad idea under most circumstances.

A few scenarios begin with China developing an insurgency on Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province that must be reunited. Others begin with miscalculations of the opposing side’s intentions.

While multinational conflict over China’s claims to the South China Sea has grabbed more attention in recent years, Taiwan’s status as an unrecognized sovereign state with U.S. support has never been far from the minds of Asia-Pacific military strategists.

related:

As Trump tweets, China considers options to retaliate

US military history on Taiwan rooted in confrontation with China

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Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump

"The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes."

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Donald Trump is tweeting about nukes

Today is a good day to look back on one of Hillary Clinton’s favorite Trump quips, fittingly preserved on Twitter:

"A man who can be provoked by a tweet should not have his hands anywhere near the nuclear codes. #DebateNight"
By the end of the presidential campaign, Trump had had enough of this critique; at a debate, he told Clinton the line was “starting to get a little bit old.” But controversy over Trump’s military maturity may be renewed after the president-elect tweeted a call to expand US nuclear capabilities.

"The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes."
As with so many of Trump’s short-form statements, it’s not clear what he means by “until the world comes to its sense regarding nukes”—we’ve asked his press team, and will update with any reply.

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China 'Closely Following' Trump Comments on Nuclear Policy

China said Friday that countries with the largest nuclear arsenals should take the lead in disarmament, after President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin said they wanted to strengthen their nations' nuclear capabilities.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters at a regular briefing Beijing is "paying close attention" to what nuclear weapons policy Trump's administration will follow.

After meeting with Pentagon officials and defense contractors a day earlier, Trump tweeted Thursday: "The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.

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''Let it be an arms race'', says President-elect Donald Trump

Donald Trump has reportedly said ‘‘let it be an arms race,’‘ the day after he called for the US to strengthen and expand its nuclear capability.

The President-elect is said to have made the comment in an interview with MSNBC which had sought clarification over Thursday’s tweet in which he threatened a major ramping up of the US’s atomic arsenal.

Earlier, Trump’s transition team released a letter they say was sent from the Kremlin.

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Trump, Promising Arms Race, Could Set World on Uncertain Path

If President-elect Donald J. Trump meant what he said, then the world may one day look back to recall that the first superpower nuclear arms race since the Cold War was announced by two pajama-clad talk show hosts.

“Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all,” Mika Brzezinski, of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program, said on Friday. She and her co-host, curled up in holiday-themed nightwear in front of a fake fireplace, said the quote was a statement from Mr. Trump, elaborating on a Twitter message on nuclear weapons.

Mr. Trump has a history of bluster and his declarations may turn out to be bluffs. But should he follow through on instigating a nuclear arms race, the consequences could be severe. Best estimates of likely Russian and Chinese responses offer a concerning guide. So do lessons from the Cold War arms race, which brought the world so close to the brink that once-hostile American and Soviet adversaries worked to reverse the competition they had once seen as essential.

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Trump's comments on nuclear weapons rattle U.S. officials and foreign leaders

Donald Trump shook up long-standing international security norms Friday by reportedly suggesting a renewed arms race, a day after he tweeted that the United States should “greatly strengthen and expand” its nuclear weapons capability.

Trump’s meaning was sufficiently cryptic, perhaps deliberately so, that disarmament experts, foreign leaders and U.S. officials were left off balance — and unsure if he plans to upend U.S. policy on nuclear arms after he enters the White House in 28 days.

Since his election, Trump has rocked the foreign policy establishment by praising Russian President Vladimir Putin, and by speaking to the president of Taiwan and questioning the “One China” policy that only recognizes Beijing.

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Donald Trump challenges world to nuclear arms race

"Let it be an arms race"

The President elect said the US would 'outlast' and 'outmatch' other nations - but didn't say which countries he was referring to

Donald Trump challenged the world to a nuclear arms race this morning, after calling for the US to “greatly” expand its weapons arsenal. He told MSNBC: “Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.”

It follows widespread concern over a tweet the President elect sent last night, saying: “The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.”

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Donald Trump: "Let there be an arms race"

Donald Trump has escalated his calls for a larger American nuclear arsenal, saying he is relaxed with an “arms race” in an off-air call with MSNBC’s Morning Joe.

“Let it be an arms race,” the President-Elect said, “We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.”
Confusion over Trump’s nuclear policy began with a tweet in which he said that “the United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.”

The President-Elect has said that the United States will "outpass and outlast" its rivals if there is a nuclear arms race.

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Donald Trump Wants to Build Up America’s Nuclear Arsenal

Donald Trump called for a nuclear arms build-up Thursday, a day after meeting with top Pentagon brass and Russian President Vladimir Putin made his own speech calling for his country to strengthen its arsenal.

In a tweet sent while on vacation at his Mar-a-Lago estate, the president-elect said, “The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.” Trump met with eight generals and admirals Wednesday as part of a briefing on U.S. military procurement needs, including Lt. Gen. Jack Weinstein, the Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration.

It is unclear whether Trump’s comments reflect a desire to change U.S. policy, or a reflection of his support for existing U.S. plans to expend nearly $1 trillion over the coming decade on modernizing and upgrading the nation’s aging nuclear arsenal and delivery systems.

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US will outlast everyone in nuclear arms race: Trump

Washington, Dec 23 (PTI) President-elect Donald Trump on today reportedly said he is fine with a nuclear arms race and exuded confidence that the US would outlast any another country in terms of atomic weapons.

Trump reportedly said this in an off-air conversation to Mika Brzezinski, co-host of the popular Morning-Joe show on MSNBC, the news channel said. "Let it be an arms race...we will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all," Trump told Brzezinski in an off-air conversation as reported by her during the Friday morning show.

Trumps comments comes a day after he tweeted that "The US must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes". The tweet raised concerns among foreign policy watchers.

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Keep Donald Trump’s Finger Off The Nuclear Button

It’s too late to stop Donald Trump from becoming president. But it is not too late to stop him from impulsively blowing up the planet.

With the stroke of a pen, President Barack Obama could take our nuclear missiles off high alert, making sure that President Trump could not launch them rashly. If he doesn’t do this, we will all regret it.

It’s like wishing you had locked the door before you left the house. Or made sure the gun wasn’t loaded before you put it on the shelf. Or wishing you hadn’t stored gasoline quite so close to the furnace.

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Trump’s Nuclear Weapons Tweet, Translated and Explained

The last time the United States declared its nuclear weapons policy, in 2010, it required a year of deliberation and a fussed-over 64-page report to set it out.

President-elect Donald J. Trump appears to have done so in only 140 characters, forcing analysts and foreign states to divine United States policy from a few brief words.

Whether Mr. Trump knows it or not, nuclear weapons policy has a meticulous language all its own, meant to signal clearly to allies and adversaries. But his words fall outside that language, creating several possible interpretations with a wide range of meanings and ramifications for the world — as well as an uncertainty that is itself destabilizing, analysts warn.

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Beijing Says US Regularly Spy in Its Waters

China brought up on Monday the case of the American drone captured in the South China Sea to denounce the fact that Pentagon ships and aircraft regularly enter its territorial waters for surveillance activities.

“U.S. ships and aircraft have been carrying out close reconnaissance and surveillance activities” in “China’s coastal waters,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying and urged Washington to put a stop to these activities.

According to Beijing, these activities have been going on for a long time and endanger navigation security of the area.

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The Chinese ‘red line’ in Asia that could spark a war

In 1996 the USS Independence was part of two carrier battlegroups sent to the South China Sea to monitor Chinese military activity in the area. Photo: Reuters

The South China Sea — despite all of the controversy, so-called “historical claims” and the growing chances of blood being spilled over it — is the beating heart of Asia’s economy.

The rationale for such a statement is straightforward. This vital part of the global commons, home to some US$5.3 trillion in seaborne trade, is the world’s richest shipping route, carrying critical natural resources that power China, Japan, South Korea and many other Asian economies.

Economics demand that the South China Sea is a strategic waterway of the upmost importance. From massive island building and militarization of such features by Beijing, Washington’s freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS), to nations like Vietnam who are working to reinforce and militarize their own claims, what has been dubbed “Asia’s Cauldron” will certainly remain one of the Asia-Pacific’s great hotspots for years to come.

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Donald Trump is on a collision course with China

Donald Trump's antagonism towards China is a gamble without an upside. AP

The biggest surprise since Donald Trump's election victory is his decision to pick a fight with China. Not once in his campaign did he mention the word Taiwan. Yet all of a sudden there is now a threat over America's "One China" policy - a bedrock in today's unstable global order.

Beijing has so far chosen to blame a wily Taiwan for the call between Mr Trump and his Taiwanese counterpart - the US president-elect is " as ignorant as a child", says China's state media. On Sunday China agreed to return an underwater drone it had seized from a US naval vessel. Mr Trump claimed it had been stolen. China accused him of "overhyping" the incident. Next time, Beijing is unlikely to let him off the hook so easily.

Without realising it, the US electorate appears to have opened the gates to a new cold war in which America's hand will be far less strong than it was first time round. One of the reasons the US won the original one was its skill at breaking China away from the Soviet block.

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Trump versus China: the ‘madman’ strategy

“When two elephants fight against each other, the grass always suffers,” said Yu-Fang Lin of the National Policy Foundation, a Taiwan-based think tank, in an interview with The Washington Times. He was talking about the famous phone call between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and Donald Trump on Dec. 2. If the United States and China get into a military confrontation, Lin suggested, it is Taiwan that will be crushed.

Beijing was outraged by that phone call, the first direct conversation between an official of the Taiwan government and an American president or president-elect in almost four decades, but it kept its fury in check. Beijing made an official complaint to Washington, but Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed the call as a “petty trick” by Taiwan. Chinese leaders, as puzzled as everybody else by the Trump phenomenon, were soft-pedaling the issue and hoping against hope that the president-elect wasn’t looking for a fight.

The alternative was just too frightening to contemplate. Yu-Fang Lin called it the “madman” strategy: Trump making himself “appear to be very dangerous and hostile and very unpredictable to scare the (Chinese) leaders” into concessions on various issues. Within days, Trump gave Lin’s theory wings.

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World War 3 tensions rise as China sends WAR FLEET towards Taiwan

China’s sole aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, and five vessels were part of the armada that passed south of Taiwan in the early hours of Boxing Day.

The fleet passed 90 nautical miles out of Taiwan’s most southerly point via the Bashi Channel that runs between Taiwan and the Philippines.

The ships then passed southeast of the Pratas Islands, also controlled by Taiwan before heading southwest.

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China's 1st aircraft carrier sails into South China Sea

In a new show of force, China's first aircraft carrier and five other warships passed by Taiwan and sailed into the contested South China Sea on Monday, Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported Monday.

China's Defense Ministry said Saturday that the Liaoning carrier had set off for a routine open-sea exercise in the Western Pacific as part of its annual training. But its entering into the politically sensitive South China Sea follows rising tensions between Beijing and Taipei over the status of the self-ruled island.

The ships, led by the Liaoning, sailed past the Pratas Islands, also known as the Dongsha Islands, a Taiwan-controlled atoll in the northern part of the South China Sea, according to Taiwan.

related:
Recent developments surrounding the South China Sea

China to put missiles on SCS man-made islands to guard airstrips

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China is mobilising hundreds of missiles to disputed islands, US officials claim

China may be preparing to move ‘hundreds’ of its surface-to-air missiles onto islands in the disputed South China Sea region

US military officials said the missiles, which Beijing recently shipped to its non-contested Hainan Island in the South China Sea, will be moved to the country’s disputed man-made islands over coming months.

The officials told Fox News Hainan Island would likely serve as a training site before the missiles are deployed early next year to the disputed Spratly Islands or Woody Islands.

The equipment includes a number of short, medium and long-range weapons. One of these, a military unit of the advanced SA-21 system, would be capable of knocking out aircraft from more than 400km away.

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Recent Developments Surrounding the South China Sea

After China returned an underwater glider it seized from the U.S. Navy off the coast of the Philippines, the Philippine defense secretary said his government would put both Washington and Beijing on notice against what he called their unauthorized presence in the country's 200-mile exclusive economic zone.

It's the latest twist in Manila's attempt to move away from Washington's security umbrella and mend ties with China, its rival claimant in the South China Sea.

Washington says the USNS Bowditch, an oceanographic survey ship, was in international waters off Subic Bay when a Chinese ship snatched one of its underwater gliders last week. The Pentagon said the seizure was unlawful and vowed the U.S. will continue to "fly, sail, and operate in the South China Sea wherever international law allows."

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Drone incident hints at new tension in South China Sea

Beijing and Washington have recently handled a maritime incident in a low-profile and proper way as the Chinese navy handed back an American underwater drone it had captured in the South China Sea. But worries over potential conflicts in the waters in 2017 remain. Given that the US under Donald Trump could ratchet up pressure on China with "freedom of navigation" in the region, feasible and assuring measures to manage and control disparities between China and the US appear to be necessary.

The drone, an unmanned undersea vehicle (UUV) able to carry sensors and weapons, is meant to help the US Navy enhance the awareness of the battleground. The Pentagon has iterated that they need to advance undersea warfare capabilities, which therefore leads Beijing to suspect the objectives of the device as more than "scientific research." Besides, the South China Sea has seen an increasing number of the elusive devices deployed by the US Navy. From time to time, Chinese fishermen have spotted such devices.

The US claimed the incident took place in the alleged "international waters," which ignores the international law - the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea provides no definition for such catchphrase. The US also doesn't seek approvals from littoral countries for its military activities conducted within their exclusive economic zone.

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Why China’s Seizure Of US Navy Drone Set A Dangerous Precedent

Vessels roam the waters of the East China Sea during a naval exercise, October 19, 2012. The Chinese navy conducted a joint exercise in the East China Sea with the country's fishery administration and marine surveillance agency on Friday. 11 vessels, eight planes and more than 1000 personnels took part in the drill, according to local reports. REUTERS/China Daily

The Chinese navy’s unlawful seizure of a U.S. naval underwater drone and America’s muted reaction may be setting a dangerous precedent.

A Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy warship seized a U.S. Navy unmanned underwater vehicle in the South China Sea last Thursday. The device was taken in the presence of a U.S. naval oceanographic vessel attempting to retrieve it. While the seizure occurred in the highly-contested South China Sea, the Pentagon reported that both the drone and the accompanying ship were operating legally in international waters.

The Department of State and the Pentagon protested the illegal seizure and demanded its return. The unmanned device was returned Tuesday

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Civilians Helping Governments Stake Claims in South China Sea

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