Today’s Economic News:
Decent numbers again out of Europe and the UK. In the shortened trading day in the US we start jobs week and everything is getting squished. The initial claims will be out today instead of tomorrow when the the market is closed all day.
Quote of the Day:
Victory is always possible for the person who refuses to stop fighting.
–Napoleon Hill
Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:
We would like some retesting on those lows, that would mean a turn in the Zweig. So far, that is not happening. Today would need to follow through to the downside.
Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:
Short: 1506
Long: 1588
The inability for the markets to climb up to 1620 resulting in selling down into the close, excepting a closing imbalance (read MiM below) that gave us a little push.
Two days ago, I mentioned that 1595 should be drawn on everyone’s charts. Here we go again. That is this early morning’s starting line. The race is small today with the markets closing at 1PM ET, noon for my more centrist friends.
We have 1606 as a test for the next attempt higher. If the bull can’t muster and break that, then down we should go through the 1595 with our downside targets of 1588 and 1583.
I can’t really remember the markets taking half days before the 4th of July before. But they are, so we will be offline starting at 1pm and through until Friday morning. Don’t forget that Friday is the all important jobs number.
Here in the USA we will be celebrating our Declaration of Independence from Britain some 230+ years ago. Ben Franklin, in gathering the signers, is reported to have said, “ We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately”. Had the war been lost, most certainly that document would have been the death sentence to the signers. They took risk. One year later they celebrated the day with bonfire, fireworks, and the ringing of bells, and that tradition will again be performed tomorrow.
On the MiM:
The MiM got some nice fan mail yesterday as it pegged hard to the buy side and never really budged.
It was so hard pegged that I had a bit of doubt myself, especially after straying into a long around the 3:20 entry and taking some heat. I did check with the data source and was assured that the data was accurate and flowing and as the market started to move in the direction of the imbalance I think we all felt better.
The money trade was the 3:30 entry which yielded over 4. I got in at 4.25, managed to ride down 2.25 and then ride back up to 8.25 to take out 4, so there was 6 in there. Remember, the snapshot is just that, it takes a picture and the window for that picture is sometime within that minute. So there was more than six points available in yesterday’s trade.
NOTE: Today is a shortened holiday and expect the MiM to be spitting out data around noon time today. This is another learning experience as we have never done or been through a shortened day. Watching and learning is never a bad idea.
Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:
The dollar continues its climb, Looking for 84.19 next to the upside or a test of 83.50.
Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):
Our destination of 111.60 is in view. That leaves 110.50 and 109.50 as foundational points.
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Breadth Charts in Full :
Zweig Breadth Thrust:
Looking for a turn to the downside. Breadth remains in gathering mode for now, though.
Cumulative Volume Index:
No Info.
Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):
Nothing here new.
New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :
Bears are going to have to do better.
Trenders :
Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:
We have the chart continuing bearish:
Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
Still waiting for the definitive test here on the fat-lady.
Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader
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