Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:
In order for us to believe in an upside sustainable rally, this indicator has to get and stay around the 90s, right now it is still struggling to slip it into gear.
Economic News:
The UK numbers remain strong, watch GDP numbers premarket today in the USA.
Quote of the Day:
Justice consists in doing no injury to men; decency in giving them no offense.
–Marcus Tullius Cicero
Comments and Levels for the Front(S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:
Short: 1810
Long: 1790
We are going to call the lower 1810 for a possible exhaustion point today. If that breaks out we are looking toward 1823. The market is walking a tightrope here.
On the downside, it is 1790 we are looking at and a break below 1788 should have us on course again for 1758.
On the MiM:
The MiM peaked around 3:30pm ET and then went weaker again. We made a 3:20 entry as the 3:00 initial MiM had us at 50/50 and not much of a commitment. Going into the first quarter of the closing hour, that MiM moved strong enough to the sell side to commit us to a short. We did manage to squeeze out a full point with the 4pm exit, our official tracker has us adding just half a point to the 3:20 entry tally for December.
Today there is some rebalancing to be done on the S&P500, that will force those funds that track to add and subtract according to the rebalancing so we should see some decent numbers.
Date Of Signal
Direction
x:00 Entry/Close
x:20 Entry/Close
x:30 Entry/Close
12/2/2013
Short
5.23
4.63
1.94
12/4/2013
Short
-
-0.36
-0.17
12/5/2013*
Short
-1.51
0.11
0.33
12/6/2013*
Short
-0.76
-2.07
-2.24
12/11/2013
Short
4.71
2.62
1.85
12/13/2013
Short
1.76
-N/S-
-N/S-
12/20/2013
Short
-N/S-
+0.53
-0.70
Total
9.40
5.46
1.01
* – NFP Day before and day of.
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Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):
No movement yet… liking down to the 101 area.
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Breadth Charts in Full:
Zweig Breadth Thrust
Bulls need to pedal just to stay in place.
Cumulative Volume Index:
To get uber bullish we would like to see new highs here on this indicator.
Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):
Again, more pushing needed.
New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:
Uh oh, bulls… you need to get this under control… back to the upper 80s at least.
Trenders
Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:
Bullish.
Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
Neutral.
Parting Shot:
The on again, off again, on partial, off some, on again regulations surrounding the this administration’s implementation of the Affordable Care Act has an entire industry, one that is almost 18% of our GDP, in an all-out tizzy. The insurers and providers had their models all programmed and ready to go, as did those watching and analyzing the industry, now they all need to be tweaked and redone again as of last night.
This form of implementation adds a cloud over 2014 performance numbers and it looks like it is going to get cloudier before it gets better. It is a great time to be a healthcare consultant, a terrible time for those at the end of the rope trying to make personal decisions, particularly when the rules keep changing during the 11th hour.
Incremental mismanagement is the worst as it makes for an unpredictable future. The last two months’ catastrophic healthcare plans were verboten, now they are OK for another year. Last month they were called bad-apple plans, now they are called panic plans.
This rollout needs catastrophic insurance.
Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader