hey traders how's it going is sunday $MONTH the twenty-third of $MONTH october 2016 the time is about three o'clock in the afternoon UK time is Nicholas pretty here and I know the first thing you're probably thinking is why are you going back to pre-recorded technical analysis Robin doing is a live stream on youtube and guys the reason is that last week the stream quality was so bad the audio and the video was out of sync and also there's delay between me talking and the chat box that's there for you to ask your questions so I thought to myself you know since we're doing this for you guys you know I don't go and talk on livestream for no reason if it's just me talking to myself but if the quality is bad and if you're not actually able to ask questions except such a long delay then what's the point so for this week we're gonna go back to pre-record which what we're going to do here and I'm going to be working with the teams trying to improve the quality for next week hopefully we go back to a live stream so fingers crossed we back live next week but for now please enjoy this pre-recorded version so the first thing is we're going to go over to the economic and have a look at was jus in terms of economic news for this week now i have to point out as well that that's going to be a couple of changes around here so you better get used to it we get her we basically we're not going to do fundamental analysis anymore I mean we didn't do too much fundamental analysis by spoke about the fundamental picture quite a lot in the technical analysis each week and it just dragged on for one and also made things a lot more confusing people so I'd rather do separate videos on the fundamental analysis we can make things clear because it got to the point where i was going over things so briefly and in sort of a very scattergun approach that all end up doing was making you misjudge the importance of certain things for some people and make you panic bits like hold on a second I really meant to open a trade here on your US dollar what if you're suddenly shits the bed this week because some politicians said something stupid much red gets messed up so is much better we just focus on the charts and will be fundamental analysis in other videos and we'll break it down in great details that you really understand it anyway I'm rambling on Nelson let's get straight into this let's get stuck in it was as we can see monday this month alt / 24 there's quite a lot of dates coming out but nothing high volatility as always i'm using the calendar on fxstreet.com books is free so you can all check out as well I've got no affiliation with them but i just think it's a great resource for beginners there's other ones like a car today and some other ones that I can't think of a top of my head right now but you don't have to pay for this data so it's great resource so as I said there's a lot of dates coming out on monday a lot of PMI data particularly the German dates going to be important as is the rest of Europe the whole of Europe so keeping an eye on that is it as you can see it's an Amber volatility event so it can shake out the markets particularly if you're trading the euro the times here by the way is gmt and of course you care moments in gmt +1 so it can all those times we will release our daily calendars on instagram facebook so you can see what times things specifically coming out or you can just check out the street yourself so PM is going to be important keep an eye out for especially for trading the euro later in the day we've got the Chicago Fed activity index which is again is something like $TIME p.m. i were can move the market is not going to completely change the direction of things but it gives a better perspective of how things are and then later they will go a couple of fed speech is going on and the PMI for the US this is in UK is going to be middle of the afternoon for the u.s. is early in your session so there's all of that for monday but generally speaking and small feds speech towards in today generally speaking Monday's a decent trade and a nothing too much that we have to keep out the market for so it could be mainly steady-state market for a lot of day which we obviously like movements tuesday we got the IFO business climate current assessment expectations for Germany anything that that's to Germany is always very important than the rest of the morning for you can European sessions is very quiet steady state again until the afternoon we've got a lot of minor US states coming out apart from consumer confidence going to be important and I was like to keep an eye on things that the case-shiller index and looking at the housing markets it's often a good indication of how the economy's deal with you know global event even national events just how to cut economies deal with things moving on little bit later we've got the bank of england governor Carney speaking marconi that's going to be a high-volatility event especially if you're looking at trading things like cable anything involving the pound sterling and obviously because of the brake system which now it seems like everyone started to realize our hold on a second breaks it is going to cause some issues in the economy so suddenly these become important again and then a little bit later on after that we have a druggie talking and people's presence be talking about that asset asset purchase program I don't think really is going to be talking much party he's already said last week that they're not going to have an abrupt exit which I don't think anyone expected and he said they haven't discussed how they're gonna taper out there or anything like that yet so you know I don't see what new news is going to come from out but as always the market will react heavily so keep an eye on that just won't be any trace of the euro just in case or at least winding down a little bit as i said i want to get too much into the fundamentals so wednesday there's high activity events high volatility events in the asian and australian sessions so 1230 gmt was at one-thirty UK time we're going to have these CPI releases for Australia later in the day we got some minor release in the morning session and then later and they we've got market PMI concert and services PMI for us we've got new home sales and that's basically got again later on using and some important news there but most guys that watch these videos i think don't trade anything to the museum and maybe one or two review maybe I'm under estimating it moving on Thursday mainly steady state for most of the day apart from durable goods orders for the u.s. started us session we've also got things that money supply for the euro zone we've got gdp for great person which is going to be important but mainly that's going to shake things up if you're trading the pounds and even then it might have too much fun effect but still keep an eye on it later today CPI of Japan and then move on to Friday mainly steady state again apart from gdp for the u.s. in the afternoon session on the morning session for us people and in the morning we got that consumer confidence in the sentiment ratings for you rope so just running through that very briefly just for aware of which days a better weather high volatility events are now let's get stuck into the charts because i think in last week's video it was probably a little bit difficult for some of you to keep up with the analysis since the audio was ahead of what you're seeing on your screens when i was talking about certain levels you are kind of having to decode alive Sherlock Holmes to actually figure out what i was referring to on the screen because coming up a minute later or something but so i'll try to do is talk through some of the levels so it to explain what we expect to happen last week just to refresh your memory or to put things in perspective who didn't quite a very last week so the first 1i want to look at is your US dollar is down here you can already see it it's looking pretty nice books is working in a very structured way and when we have a structured movement in the market it makes it much easier for us to trade so we've broken out of this this blue line here was the center of the range to the black lines were the top and bottom of the range go to weekly chart you can see what i mean and this of course the Rangers be going on since the start of $MONTH 2015 so it's a very strong long-term range and that center point we always knew that the market doesn't like breaking free of sense . that much whenever it does it seems to come back up in life spending his time in this top section will see things have changed in the fundamental picture things have changed from a technical point of view you can see we're getting these lower highs it was moving along this nice baseline trend line here broke away and it had the sharp movement through God bit of a bit of momentum to push route ensure it struggled a little bit along the center line which you would expect to happen because happened all the time before and now we're heading to hear is a very interesting area so I do have my drawing tool with me so i can highlight things this area that we're approaching here this for me is extremely interesting for two reasons right so one is that whenever we have a range we always try to find a center . the consolidation . and that doesn't always have to be the fifty percent mark okay it just has to be around the middle of the range because it's usually a point where you see a lot of consolidation now for your US dollar is going to switch to each other and we're gonna lose my drawings so I Drive happened beautiful join us on the screen with your US dollar what we see is that I've drawn this the sense . up here if you look down here you can see that there's a lot of consolidation along here as well so broadly speaking the consolidation is more like a zone in this sort of area here from this point to this point is like his own this is where the consolidation is taking place so just because we broke through two cents . hear that was just one important significant level that we have that we broke fruit but now we're reaching this next one you can see all the activity around this area the points along here and that's exactly where we're reaching now now combined with that the fact that we were trading in a range that came from this point so a B and we had various see points which you know we don't always like to have multiple see . we like to have a very nice clean ABCD but either way we came up we came down to the 27.2 12.2 or minus 27 points in this case and reversed off this point came back up struggled with the top of the range of the bottom of the range from the other direction came back down struggled again in this area of the minus 27 points who came back into the range and again right it looks like the range has shifted slightly by still broadly speaking the same kind of levels that were struggling with we're struggling with this 38.2 we're struggling up here with the fifty percent mark we're struggling with the bottom of the range and we broke out and we struggled a little bit with this 27.2 again look at all of this mess this is like the drawings of a madman here anyway we've broken out again and we've reached this point here we're at the minus 61.8 that's an important level for us but we have to do two things here first of all we have to decide whether the price action and whether everything else in from our technical analysis besides the Fibonacci range where everything is on our side for there being a holdup here whoever is going to break through and that's going to give it that extra momentum or what's going to happen so if we're short is a chance to taper out of our trades look at me using the word taper like a mini CB Wiley is skating out for trades so is this point for us to scale out short you wrote rates is there . so open along your retreat if we get the right failure at that level so that's what we need to figure out here we need to be very sure of it because these are the make-or-break decisions for certain traits for us so get rid of those drawings now what I want to do first of all is what two things here i want to one want to check that this range is correct i want to see if it's changed slightly because things move over time we like to be dynamic with the way that we draw things in general once you have a Fibonacci range and is correct it stays correct until is gone completely as in that you don't adjust them over time as the market starts moving from this one raid you just find the new range and get rid of the old range once it stops and being the case that the lines are respected anymore when you don't get type-1 and type-2 closes on the levels of this range you don't start trying to adjust around that much trying to find the right levels although that small adjustment I just done seems to be more perfect than what we just had some keep it is this for now and instead what you do is actually get rid of it from your chart enjoy different one altogether first ruler i get my words out right for the time being we're going to remember that this range was drawn by taking the body of the parish council there and the bottom work of that lowest point from that point there right we're going to get rid of it so it doesn't distract us as we try and find now we're possibly the next Rangers that can create a level for us to see where there's possibly congruence if there's an extension of all down here that coincides with the extensional we just had then we know its strong level one we're going to highlight that as a key activity area for us combined with the fact that were clearly entering into a little reversal zone along here you can see here without you know I'm there's different levels of strength within this reversal you can see broadly speaking as a top starting over here how it interacts with that top there and the bottom here i mean is i think actually we can move that bottle it up a little bit about here-ish you can see how the price when it reaches these two areas there's a reaction going on in most cases it was talking about probabilities are trading statistics and so there's a breakthrough here you can see that most times when is an interaction with it then there is reaction is in a slowdown of momentum and that's exactly where we're heading to now so that's why it's important so let's start by finding what we think is the most logical new range that we could be looking at just quick let me get my drawing tool again I think that if you're looking for an ABCD pattern right and you're saying that down here where we all this somehow has gone wrong but if we're saying that this drawing tool is working against me stay there with me a sec to sort this out all right back I don't know what happened there so let's say that this is going to be the deep . right here then what would be the logical ABC part that's going to make that deep . we're looking for something that is like that so it's a b c and that's going to be daddy . down here was the logical range is going to create that I think it's quite clear that this this is definitely got to be the sea . right because then it moves down to Daddy . so that makes the this is the be . i think that's a definite or it could maybe this that's a question mark for us right now that looks like a number two often ? that would go i'm doing a number to all over these drawings then we're looking for a point is that going to be here here is going to be up here that's what we want to find out so we're going to start off by taking the most recent one to the current price because if you take that one and get it right as in if that works out everything fits together then you could be quite sure that's the current range that we were in going to start off the logical part we're going to your highest point on the bird first bearish candle to lowest point on the last bearish candle which is here and you can see that the retracement back in there doesn't go anywhere but you can see the arbitrations around here they definitely are respecting level along here you see what I mean would definitely get some interaction there but why prefers that we have interaction along here as well like that that seems to be where there was a little bit of a struggle you can see not only was there that given this since . here only was that British cancer came back up but there's also this tiny doll by indecision range candle here that was buried before it broke fruit so in that case I think that the actual bottom of the range should be in line with those which makes it along here i'm happy to have that the bottom of the range you can see also we get it tightens up on this 30.2 that will hear on the retracement so we drop this down into the body of the bearish candle no I move up to hear just what we're looking for his type 1 and type 2 closes to try and confirm where that ranges because we look for the clues in the market and you know there's the thing is there's a lot of potential areas where something could be but i think the most likely one from what I'm seeing right now is this is what we have here is that we've got a up here moving down to be here and we come up and this is the first see . hear this I'll account this is struggling to break through that top of the range and just going on with the baseline it comes back down we get some touching points here along here is not so great actually maybe it's not so great let's go back to the drawing board i know it's going to help make things take a little bit longer but I think it's worth it so it's the top average points down there ok let's have a look now so we've got . a up here be come up here the sea . going to be up here and I said but we get these interactions with these two levels along here before breaking out and we've got the instructions of what with the range they're coming up and that gives us levels here and here now the thing here is that this is not the strongest version of an extension level that we could be looking at here in here the interesting thing is that usually when you draw a range if you go into the top portion of the range you're going to interact with the lower the extension table is closer to the the edge of the range at the point because the prices moved so much further out it doesn't want to move so much further that way and if it would say coming up here then it was once go to the one that's forever away so far what I would say is this I'm craps draw this in as a possible area of interest for us and then of course because significant levels because the charger time-invariant a significant level can be interesting backwards as well as forwards so let's have a quick look backwards once I think that line up so you can see it properly so let's get rid of this range want to get rid of any distractions if we see we've got type3 baby is there a type one of their but type free there's not loads of kissing points in terms of type 1 and type 2 but that's okay because we had earlier remember we had our range as this we had a nice ABC pattern ABCD person and that gave us this far 61.8 so basically between these two points and generally in this area now i would say that I'm looking for key activity for I've a consolidation reversal breakout was happening around here now I know that basically gives you every single possible version of what the market can do there but let's actually think about what i'm trying to say here let's put in perspective we're either going to get when we enter this area of consolidation around here right we're going to get breakout was struggling and then it breaks out we're going to get a reversal so since we know this is the area we look at not this area where the price is right now but this area down here that we know that any significant levels along there such as for example the swing lows from over here or on the lower timeframes that was specifically looking for failure in certain directions to understand exactly where we're going to open the trade and we know that because we got this daily chart technical analysis on our side that we can maybe put a little bit more risk still keeping things limited and caps are one or two percent of our counter risk each time but it means that things become a lot more sure he was more certain and it also helps weight set your stop losses books office if you're breaking out this way you know that you're breaking back up this way you need starts a sort of scale out there and maybe start scale where you've seen that you're creating new waves in the market and likewise if you're going long you're going straight to reversal then you can place your stop loss if the market closes below there because you know it's gone through the activities own so I think that's orbs I almost forgot that of course we have to look at the bigger range which is the most important one for us so we're going to take the start of the bearish move from up here all the way down to the bottom of the bearish move it came back up and we can see here that we have this is a b c exactly on the 61.8 retracement and then that gives us a deal . down here for the 22-27 . to which is in line with you know these touch points here is kind of hasn't had too many touch points but i think because of how perfect that ABC do so ABC of the ranges that we could take that as a potential deal . but more importantly down here you can see that the minus sixty one point a is exactly in line with the bottom of the range so we'll keep those levels there as well and let's move on to the other jars so far the levels we've been putting on that these major significant levels that we choose from the daily charts the markets been really respecting them which is good because it doesn't always happen that way no system is perfect no method is perfect so even though I'm drawing the lines and i'm also the person that's teaching you about that doesn't mean that they're going to be perfect and sometimes they'll fail but luckily for us every week so far they've been close to being quite perfect as you can see here like if we look at the dollar this the baseline trendline we did last week and what happens reversal straight off they're really nice Russell and in fact that the video i think it was on thursday maybe wednesday and it was about how to organize your charts in your windows for trading and about how we use the profiles and I said was don't is quite good at the moment keep an eye on there i said i was going to do a video about it but I was so close to a video about it maybe I should have I think actually to be honest I adjusted the baseline trend line at that point slightly from where we had it before I think maybe in the technical analysis last week we had it like here and as soon as I saw that daily chart close there I knew that the actual correct place was here to be using these type ones as a touching . and as for us to technical analysis don't ever draw a level and leave it there thinking okay that's perfect now bonacci is different that's why I explain that one specifically on its own saying that you'd get rid of the range rather than trying to adjust it all the time after it's been used once or twice laughter the levels have been significant once they stop being significant you don't adjust the Fibonacci you create a new one of your baselines and stuff you have to adjust them because that's how every time the market comes into contact with it again or close to it that's what gives your clues about what you've drawn it right that first time on our so by constantly adjusting it your knowing that slowly over time the more it interacts with the market at the mall pricing to outfit but more sure you can be there is correct as we've met with breakthrough i can use from the other side now if I was a dollar we kind of that this was the trade this was the trades go short hip if obviousy using your working time frames and stuff but we always focus on the daily chart this these videos we are entering the reversal zone we went through the first stage of reversals own and interacted pretty much perfectly on that second level of it along with happiness baseline trendline and we know that the markets kind of wanted to drop we had we've got to solve intersection at the moment of two different trends going on we've got this which is you know it is clearly heading down this high one we've got lower high we've got low 1 and it's like you want to push down and create that lower low one arrow that does not like an area that sucks what's to come let's get rid of that and the but at the same time on the sort of smaller time frame we had on distract myself now we had low 1 and we're getting these sort of higher highs and higher lows going up but then it kind of stopped or like installed a little bit and then it hasn't happened in this town's turn and is the marketer and if you look her a line chart you can sometimes see how the market starts to curve like if the markets turning sometimes you'll see a curve like a semicircle type shape happening and you kind of you should cut see it not as much sort of lights to show you properly if you look at the EMA instead actually that's quite good effective way of seeing it is happening very slowly but you can see that we had sort of a movement like this came back down and then this one's a lot shallower it's like momentum slowing and I reckon we're gonna be challenging this area here again i think that the price action of how we closed at the end of last week so on friday the price action begs to be pushed further down I think we're going to struggle with this level here but ultimately I mean it's got to break up that level of this level up here and i think the chances are the path of least resistance is to close down to keep going down and we still got some space to go on about your child we may end up hitting the over sold section as soon as we start to interact with this level here and keep an eye on those levels and it's the same levels we had last week nothing changed with the analysis is just show you how the levels are so important ones that we had before so keeping those exactly as they are moving onto US dollar Canadian dollar because again this is a very interesting one of the moment and we're interacting with if we go into the weekly chart this huge range down here we're starting to interrupt this 38.2 level and like i said before what I would love to happen is this that this is going to be a B and we're going to come up here and it's going to be a sea and we're going to come back down and I hid there or there or even just interact with the bottom of the range again and start to create new range forever but i wanna i want that opportunity to show you on a weekly chart on the bigger timescale how the same things happen as we see 15 minutes or 15 minutes out of the one hour chart i want you to see how that Charles a time invariant you can use the same tools the same methods on any timeframe and you get the same effect it's just about whether you have to wait longer amount of time or a short amount of time and whether the movements are counting hundreds of pips or tens of pips or a couple of pips so that's what we keep an eye on here but importantly on the daily chart with broken out of this range the assault horizontal range we had going on but if you really look at it what we had going on overtime is it starts to become a very slow small uptrends that was going on you look along here we're going to keep this level here i'm going to change the color let's make that purple I really hate and purple my charts but they swim tracks in that level now and more so interesting about 30.2 level here now this was the little many diverse box that we drew a couple of weeks ago and I just kept it there because why not and when we got to the stage here we we broke through that door was but we came back in and we're talking to I'm a variation of this box by the way where there's big difference that you can extend boxes or create new ones and also at that stage we extended their and now we're a stage again we've broken through even without extension so are we going to be creating the new box or is it going to be extended up to here that's what we're going to find out in the next few candles I just want to check something because obviously I'm destroying the most recent diverse box but i really want to see how the diverse books have been stepped up up until this point it could be that really were in a big dollar spot starts to way back here and i think that could be the case so i'm going to quickly it's open another chart for US dollar Canadian dollar going to put my template Cirque usual chart template now go up right here indicates which I don't really use that often for the divers boxes because it's not always the most reliable yeah and as you see we're still in a big box on this is on the hourly chart actually so let's switch the daily chart yeah we're in a big box that starstuff this range so it's been pushed up to here is basically the most recent dollars box is the range that we've been mapping out but we're right on that tip of it right now very very key area high activity area so i have a big breakout is going to happen we're going to create a new box on top and we're looking at key areas around here as well for that from previous novels box is going to help us out I was going to be happening we're going to come back into the box and maybe test the other side now if you're going to be trading that short considering the last box was a green box you would say that you're going to be opening a pro trade because you're not yet in a proper bullish trend but since that box was so small i do some initiative here and say that actually we're going with the trends and other open for trades i wanted to show up to once to percent of my counter risk if we're breaking through breaking out then if you're trading test from the other side and moving upwards I don't use a pro trade that's my preference ok it kind of goes a little better guess what i say but i'm using initiative here based on that being such a tiny box i think it sink in significant so what more can we say about canadian dollar really that's that's it for now let's move on to and i'm only going to do i think one more because the rest of them with your japanese yen we're using this baseline the same as with where is it gone Your Story japanese yen using a baseline by became clear that it was a horizontal market so it's just the same thing with using the ranges there's nothing I can show you they're on us college japanese yen you can see we're still struggling with that top of on with that 61.8 retracement of this range and we stuck between that and fifty percent market the range so very very tight range there so nothing has changed since last week because it's so tight so the only thing that happens the AMAs move closer to the price books obviously the average price is now in this little tiny range here so i can really add anything to that story for us but i'll<font color="#E