hello traders this is John energy strategies for daily effect mom today strategy video I want to do a short one in which we discuss the confluence of analysis and i'm a firm a proponent of looking for the highest probability scenarios and I do that by aligning a technical opportunity with fundamental opportunity in market condition opportunity SI include market conditions as a separate thing if the markets are naturally more active or if they're more prone to trend or if they are just dying out slowly and then that's going to really have an influence on my assessment of what trading to do and what's available but usually the best opportunities that I find are those that combine all of those elements now of course that you can imagine seeing a perfect scenario or confluence of technical fundamentals market conditions to happen all the time now of course you don't have to look just for a daily chart and all the to happen with the big picture time frame let's say multiple weeks can also be an hourly chart but even then on the lower timeframes it's not always or they're very rarely is opportunities confirm the converging like that right now we should still make an objective to find those opportunities when they do arise because they are higher probability and ultimately that's what we're here for we're looking to identify high a symmetrical probability trades but in the view of reality I don't always have to look for all three factors lining at the same time I generally just have to find some of those factors and just ensure that the missing component is not going to interfere when we have let's say really a attractive technical pattern and we have market conditions that are prone to listen volatility the likelihood of breakouts is going to be higher follow-through might not be readily at hand the breakouts can call and there might be some at least some short-term opportunity to take advantage of but if there is enough and a counter wind from the missing ingredient a fundamental then that followed them might not be significant enough to generate enough of a trade enough of a trend to make it worth our while so I want to give a couple examples of currency person I'm looking at verses 1 or some that are dubious because of this conflict and then some that are appealing more so because they don't have the conflict even though they don't have all or the deepest scenario behind it so start with the pound dollar this is the big one that i was looking at this past session with the community combination of the UK Constitutional Court ruling and the US budget forecasts from the CB week tapping the two things that really motivate the pound dollar respectively brexit and US policies where they're heading those have been the most market-moving themes for their respective currencies over the past weeks and months so there's a lot of opportunity there ultimately they fell short terms of moving the market beyond just the volatility that we had it wouldn't be a break certainly not solved through so now we had a transition alright the technicals are reaffirming themselves on this one are you can see resistance up here at about 125 50 or just shy of it and now below we have the confluence of rising trend floor as well as a previous resistance now new support about won 24-20 this is a daily chart or a daily reflection of that all right now this has pretty straightforward technically this is a break and necessity eventually meaning it's just going around was going to have to break just by virtue of not having room to move but the question becomes if there's a break is it productive enough to actually give us meaningful follow through and doesn't have to be a massive as 500 brake because i don't think that that's a probable outcome as you can see here price on a daily charge than much more choppy we've also been bound to a broader range going back to october but even a follow-through of let's say a hundred fifty two hundred pips is going to be very difficult to obtain why there is a hurdle to making this a follow-through a reasonable falter and its fundamentals if we have a technical break and let's say volatility as market condition is contributing to it it could draw and probably will draw a lot of traders on their interest but the follow-through that we're going to be able to get all right seeing more fundamentally or two traitors or medium determine longer traders regardless whether technical or fundamental their concerns are going to immediately shift to event respects on the docket later in the week UK gdp that's gonna be a big concern about whether it's going to promote or undermine the pound and then US gdp on friday not to mention we have the UK Prime Minister potentially meeting this president on trade come friday that's a lot of conflict that's a lot of uncertainty and that can trip the pound dollar up almost immediately at the very least it's going to lead to potential traders on a break to second-guess to follow through and not participate at least not the size that they would otherwise i'd be very skeptical of the pound dollar taking advantage of any technical market condition combination here because of the fundamentals are acting as an active buffer now on similar grounds i would also be dubious of the Aussie Aussie this past session or actually early in the asian session Wednesday morning we had the Australian CPI which where the dollar was it was a disappointment movie because the CBO is one of the CBO's lack of impact the Australian CPI things are certainly much more effective nice move there but now we're going to have the uncertainty still related to the US dollars what's going to happen with the GDP figures from the United States later in the week and of course there's always the lingering knowing fear in the back of our minds can US President update policies related to trade we can significantly alter the Daleks course and particularly large course compared to a very explicit export-oriented currently like the australian dollar so it looks good technically and it doesn't have the same scale of fundamental blockade that the pound dollar does but it still has its its issues this too would be a currency pair I'm not particularly fond of taking an exposure on simply because there is a combination of market conditions and technicals and look at one that might actually confer opportunity with the combination of those two and not a conflict but an absence of a fundamental over-ride we look at something like the euro Ozzy have a currency pair here on a two hour chart we're starting to see a technical pattern developed if you actually look on your going to have a pretty straightforward range that we are working with them alright that's a good technical guideline you're looking at the euro there isn't a lot of high-profile event risk that's going to trip up the euro prevented from moving certainly not into the path of least resistance was arranged and the Ozzie after passing CPI doesn't have the high-profile event risk although does have some secondary inflation figures ahead this is where fundamentals want to interfere too much at least not prevent scheduled to do so technicals nice broad range to work with and market conditions volatility path least resistance are always at least resistance is always more appealing as a productive mover now I like the euro Ozzy I don't like the Ozzie Swiss better and think Swiss related is going to be a mirror of the euro in essence and as with many of the space crosses it's much more consistent with this technical now that being said look at the daily rising trend channel here alright very consistent but also look at the recent pattern of this consistency of the range hive and if you go down to a two hour chart and you have a nice potential is padded go to for our head shoulders pattern short-term technical pattern if it breaks it's moved back into range path least resistance once again and volatility can certainly provide I think this is a more opportunistic currency pair with the circumstances it doesn't have fundamental conflict but it definitely has technicals and market conditions outside so I look for these types of combinations and as always the ideal situation is when technicals fundamentals market conditions coincide they converge and offer those really great asymmetrical opportunities but they don't happen very often so instead i like to look for opportunities that can involve to typically of the three and the third aspect that's absent is absent and not a conflict when I find those i might not be as convinced of the trade setup in terms of how much momentum we can provide or how high the probability but it is worthy of a more generous opportunity than some of the pumps that we usually get in trying to work around or trying to essentially hope for a non-intrusive competing theme like fundamental event risk alright so run through your parents run through the markets and see where you have great technicals but perhaps not great fundamentals if you can find those technicals that have their own appeal but fundamentals are not offering conflict and essentially allowing technical traders do what they do those are going to be perhaps good shorter-term mid-level on probability opportunities all right they're certainly worth evaluating twice art we'll wrap it up here we'll do our next strategy video tomorrow until then I wish you good luck trading out there